dr. marcella szymanski - can agriculture save the planet before it destroys it?

AGRICULTURE

before it DESTROYS it?

save the planet…

Can

Peak OilPeak Child

U.S. Department of State

Baby Boom


Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

Baby Bust



Peak Child

Productivity Gains


Land40%

U.S. Department of State U.S. Department of State

70% of fresh water used for agriculture


Aral Sea1973

Aral SeaToday


ClimateGreenhouse gas emissions from

agriculture and deforestation

30%

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State U.S. Department of State


Together, these represent more emissions than from nearly any

other industry


http://www.canstockphoto.com/factories-and-power-plants-5770005.html



http://www.canstockphoto.com/factory-nuclear-power-plant-and-energy-8289254.html






20509 billion

Global Population Growth

5 1990

7 billion 2010

20308 billion


That’s

About the number of people in Germany

75 millionmore people each year

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State U.S. Department of State

And yet almost 1 billion don’t have enough food today


We all need to eat



http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/index.html


60% more food by 2050, using…

Less land

Less water

Less fertilizer

Fewer pesticides


We Need Technology

Source: USDA/ERS


Res

ou

rces

Per

Bu

shel

of

Co

rn

1980

– 2

011

60% Less Erosion

50% Less Water

40% Less Energy

35% Less Greenhouse Gases

40% Less Land



GE Crops


Bangladesh – Bt Eggplant

50,000 Hectares50-70% Yield Loss50+ Pesticide Sprays30-45% Gain for Bt Eggplant

25% of All Vegetable Area

GE Goats

James (Jim) Murray, UC Davis professor of animal science and vet med population health and reproduction, Photo by Karin Higgins/UC Davis

Competing World Views

Slow Food Fast Food


Different Choices

Brazil 2019


Different Voices


Hazard x Exposure = Risk

Old School Risk


Disruptive Technologies


New School Risk

=Media

Exposure

Perception of

Risk

Hazard x


Tweet-ification

Of Risk

The


DisconnectMarketing versus reality

By the way, this is dog food


Health Scares

Versus

Scary but Healthy



WHO Theory

How to communicate?

Media Reality



Risk High

When to communicate?

Media Attention Low

Risk Low

Media Attention High


Language that turns people off:

What to communicate?

Amount is miniscule

Keeps prices low

Let us feed the world

Research shows it’s safe

Better for the environment

Lesson: If you lead with the science, you may lose with the science


Food doesn’t have to be scary


What’s in a name?

Has anybody eaten Chinese gooseberries?



What is “pink slime”?

Lean Finely Textured Beef

March 2012

Yuck factor U.S. Department of State


What does “pink slime” have in common with Belgium?

Without LFTB nearly 400 million pounds of beef would be disposed of as food waste each year

About the same amount wasted in Belgium each year

400 million



What do they have in common?


Almost everything


How do you get a seedless watermelon?

Two sets of chromosomes

Treat seeds with toxic chemical (colchicine)

Four sets of chromosomes

Three sets of chromosomes

X =

Sterile seedless

melon


Risk in Context

“The difference between risk and the perception of risk is the difference

between action and reaction.”


Risk Approx. number

Cancer* 56,000Coronary heart disease* 35,000Food borne illness ~ 500Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease <20Food allergy ~ 10GMOs, pesticides, growth hormones nil

Choking to death 151Bed or chair accident 140

*assumes about one-third of deaths are diet-related

Food risks: UK deaths per year related to diet or food

Slide data taken from Lord Krebs Kt FRS, Jesus College Oxford



Scientist as Storyteller

Personalize

Acknowledge

Connect

Only then can we talk about the science

Build Trust


Peak Child


Peak Child

Productivity Gains

Increasing sustainability


Increasing Sustainability


“You can’t tweet common sense...

Parting Thought

But you can provide a link.”



Marcella Szymanski, Ph.D.U.S. Department of State202-647-0111 [email protected]:@EconEngage Facebook: facebook.com/EconBizEngage

Slides courtesy of Jack Bobo – Senior Biotechnology Advisor

dr. marcella szymanski - can agriculture save the planet before it destroys it?

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