Marty Matlock, PhD, PE, BCEEExecutive Director, Office for SustainabilityProfessor , Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department

University of Arkansas

Impacts of GMO

Products on Food

Security and Trade2014 NIAA Annual Conference & NIAA/USAHA

Joint Forum on Trichomoniasis Standards

Everything is Connected

2

Everything is changing

3

Security is an issue of Trust

1. Consumer attitudes

2. Social License – freedom to

operate

3. Criteria for legitimacy

4. Market competitiveness

5.Reputational Risks!

The Food Supply Chain

Production Processing

Distribution

RetailDirect Mktg Wholesale

Consumption

Safety

Security

Stability

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Trade is a Market Process

1. Demand for a product drive trade

2. Trade is tied to safe, secure, and

economical supply

3. Barriers to trade are almost always

rooted in economical nationalism

4. Some barriers are ideological –

cannot be broken with facts

5. Sustainability strategies based on

performance data can open markets

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

(B

illio

ns

)

Year

UN Population Projections

What we do in the next

10 years will shape

Earth and Humanity for

the next 100 years

When technology and culture collide

technology prevails, culture changes

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Population is about Prosperity!

Where the demand will come from…

Billions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Where the demand will come from…

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Meat Consumption on the Rise

Animal Agriculture Benefits

• Animal Agriculture accounts for 40% of Ag

GDP.

• Currently employs 1.3 billion people.

• Of the 880 million rural poor people living on

less than $1 per day, 70 percent are partially

or completely dependent on livestock for

their livelihoods and food security.

• Global meat production is expected to more

than double to 465 million tonnes by 2050.

• Global milk production is expected to almost

double to 1043 million tonnes by 2050.

Environmental Concerns over

Animal Agriculture

The argument goes something like this:

•As the numbers of farm animals reared for meat, egg, and dairy

production increase, so do emissions from their production.

•By 2050, global farm animal production is expected to double from

present levels.

•The environmental impacts of animal agriculture require that

governments, international organizations, producers, and consumers

focus more attention on the role played by meat, egg, and dairy

production.

•Mitigating and preventing the environmental harms caused by this

sector require immediate and substantial changes in regulation,

production practices, and consumption patterns.Koneswaran, G., & Nierenberg, D. (2008). Global farm animal production and global warming:

impacting and mitigating climate change. Environmental Health Perspectives, 116(5), 578.11

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• Grazing and pasture

lands account for the

70% of land used in

agricultural production

(30% of land on

Earth).

• Livestock accounts for

8 % of total human

water use, largely

from irrigation of

crops.

Land degradation: Restore damaged land

through soil conservation, silvo-pastoralism, better

management of grazing systems and protection of

sensitive areas.

Greenhouse gas emissions: Sustainable

intensification of livestock and feed crop

production to reduce carbon dioxide emissions

from deforestation and pasture degradation,

improved animal nutrition and manure

management to cut methane and nitrogen

emissions. 13

FAO Recommendations for

Animal Agriculture SustainabilityLivestock's long shadow (FAO, 2006)

FAO Recommendations for

Animal Agriculture Sustainability

Water pollution: Better management of animal

waste in industrial production units, better diets to

improve nutrient absorption, improved manure

management and better use of processed manure

on croplands.

Biodiversity loss: As well as implementing the

measures above, improve protection of wild

areas, maintain connectivity among protected

areas, and integrate livestock production and

producers into landscape management. 14

Livestock's long shadow (FAO, 2006)

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Livestock GHG emissions

are estimated at 7.1

gigatonnes CO2e per year.

This is 14.5 percent of

human-induced GHG

emissions.

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Potential GHG emissions

reductions from nutrition,

manure, and husbandry

practices.

Increasing forage digestibility and

digestible forage intake will generally

reduce GHG emissions

from rumen fermentation and stored

manure.

Dietary lipids are effective in reducing

enteric CH4 emissions.

Supplementation with small amounts

of concentrate feed to increase

animal productivity

Global emissions by sector

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• Intensification of animal production is critical:

– Preserving land for other life,

– Providing critical scale for effective manure

management,

– Providing effective scale for diet management,

– Insuring standardized practices for food safety,

quality, and consistency.

• Sustainability is about people, planet, and

profit.

– Unprofitable enterprises are not sustainable and

tend create the most problems for people and

planet.

Sustainable Animal Agriculture

Life Cycle Assessment Case Study:

Carbon Equivalent GHG in Dairy

Production Processing

DistributionConsumption

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Pork Supply Chain LCA

GHG emissions associated with

consumption of pork in the US.

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It’s All About Improving Feed and

Reducing Manure

• Improving effective feed utilization

(conversion of feed into product) reduces

environmental metrics.

• Feed mixture optimization is a key element

for enhancing sustainability of animal

agriculture sustainability:

– Nutrient digestibility

– Gut function

– Immune system

Measuring US Soybean

Sustainability Metrics

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Measuring US Corn

Sustainability Metrics

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Corn: Environmental Results From the 2012 Environmental and Socioeconomic Indicators Report

Field to Market is a diverse alliance working to identify supply chain strategies to define, measure and promote continuous improvement for agriculture. The group provides collaborative leadership that is engaged in industry-wide dialogue, grounded in science and open to the full range of technology choices.

Field to Market is developing and piloting science and outcomes-based sustainability metrics, and tools at a variety of scales, to help measure and advance continuous improvement. The Field to Market 2012 Environmental and Socioeconomic Indicators Report analyzes sustainability trends over time at the national scale for U.S. corn, cotton, potato, rice, soybean and wheat production. Using publicly available data, the report evaluates performance over three decades.

Corn for Grain Results

Over the study period (1980-2011), trends in U.S. corn production were as follows:

Yield: Corn increased in total production (+101%) and yield (bushels per acre) (+64%).

Resource  efficiency  (per  bu shel):  Corn  im proved  on  all  me asures  of  resource  “efficiency,”  with  de creases  in  per bushel land use (-30%), soil erosion (-67%), irrigation water applied (-53%), energy use (-44%), and greenhouse gas emission (-36%).

Resource use/impact per acre: Corn improved (decreased) per acre soil erosion (-43%), irrigation water applied (-28%), and energy use (-6%) and increased per acre greenhouse gas emissions (+8%). Improvements in per acre soil erosion occurred primarily in the first half of the study period; per acre soil erosion has remained relative constant since the late-1990s.

Total resource use/impact: Corn improved (decreased) total soil erosion (-31%) and increased total land use (+21%), irrigation water applied (+27%), energy use (+14%), and greenhouse gas emissions (+31%). Improvements in total soil erosion occurred primarily in the first half of the study period, with more recent trends indicating a slight increase in total annual erosion.

Please note: all results are for corn for grain; corn for grain includes corn for all purposes other than forage; corn for grain includes grain for ethanol. Average percent change values reported for the full study period are based on a least squares trend analyses from 1980-2011.

Index of Per Bushel Resource Impacts to Produce Corn for Grain, United States, 1980-2011

GMO Eco-Efficiency Over Time

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Gustafson, D., M. Collins, J. Fry, S. Smith,

M. Matlock, D. Zilberman, J. Shryock, M.

Doane, and N. Ramsey. 2013. Climate

adaptation imperatives: global sustainability

trends and eco-efficiency metrics in four

major crops–canola, cotton, maize, and

soybeans. International Journal of

Agricultural Sustainability, 1-18.

Productivity, Eco-Efficiency, and Yield

27Gustafson, D., M. Collins, J. Fry, S. Smith, M. Matlock, D. Zilberman, J. Shryock, M. Doane, and N. Ramsey. 2013.

Climate adaptation imperatives: global sustainability trends and eco-efficiency metrics in four major crops–canola,

cotton, maize, and soybeans. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 1-18.

US Corn Production

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• In 2013 US produced 10.8 billion bushels

(273.8 million metric tons) of corn

• Almost 30% of global yield on 20% of

corn planted area.

• Roughly 7% of production was exported

to more than 100 different countries.

• Among them, Japan (37%), Mexico

(24%), and China (13%) comprise the

bulk of U.S. corn destinations.

GMO Corn Globally

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Only 26% of the world's 2009 corn crop was genetically

modified, produced predominantly in the US (85%),

Canada (84%), Argentina (85%), and South Africa

(63%).

Europe is largely self-

sufficient when it comes to

maize production. The EU

produce approximately 173

million tonnes of ensilage

maize and 56 million tonnes

of grain maize in 2009.

An additional 10 million

tonnes are imported

predominantly from Argentina,

where large-scale GM maize

production is common.

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• U.S. soybean farmers exported 1.7 billion bushels of

U.S. soy in the 2012-13 marketing year.

• The value of these exports set a new record of $28

billion, a 19 percent increase from 2011-2012.

• Includes more than 1.3 billion bushels of whole U.S.

soybeans, the meal from 454 million bushels of U.S.

soybeans and the oil from 186 million bushels. All told,

these exports represent 56 percent of U.S. soybean

production from last year.

• China: 772 million bushels of U.S. soybeans

• Mexico: 98 million bushels of U.S. soybean

• Japan: 63 million bushels of U.S. soybeans

US Soybean Production

GMO Soybeans Globally

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Over 75% of the world's 2010 soybean crop was

genetically modified, a higher percentage than for

any other crop.

http://www.gmo-compass.org/

Each year, EU

Member States import

~ 40 million tonnes of

soy material, primarily

destined for use as

cattle, swine, and

chicken feed.

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http://www.gmo-compass.org

European Union GMO Activities

GM maize in the EU: The first lines of GM

maize were approved in the EU in 1997. Spain

became Europe’s first country to put it to use.

Today, 79,269 hectares of Spanish maize

production, is genetically modified. In addition,

production is now taking place to a lesser extent

in the Czech Republic, Portugal and Germany.

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Cultivation 2009: Field area for Bt maize decreases

The field area for genetically modified plants in the

European Union decreased further in 2009. In France

and Germany, national cultivation bans for genetically

modified Bt maize (MON810) were enacted in 2009. In

the meanwhile, stricter co-existence regulations apply in

almost all EU member states.

http://www.gmo-compass.org

European Union GMO Activities

Persistent vs Important Issues

Persistent Issues Important Issues

Locally grown Water use efficiency

GMO crops Soil erosion

Organic crops Soil organic carbon

Natural Land use change –

biodiversity loss

From Jason Clay, WWF

Meeting Food Needs by 2050

Jason Clay

The role of

research

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http://www.gmo-compass.org/

EU Scientists Call for GMO Policies and

Practices for Sustainable Agriculture

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• There are many constraints in cultivating crops and trees

in Europe for which conventional breeding has limited

potential to provide adequate solutions, and for which

biotechnological tools are already available or in an

advanced stage of development.

• Current GMO policies in the EU deprive farmers of

potential benefits and of the freedom to choose in the 12

countries in which the survey was conducted there are

farmers who wish to have the freedom to use the crops

they find best suited for their needs, including approved

GM crops.

• Much public-sector biotechnology research for

sustainable agriculture in Europe has been slowed,

stopped or moved abroad, because of regulatory hurdles

and costs to prevent destruction of field research.

EU Scientists Call for GMO Policies and

Practices for Sustainable Agriculture

Building Trust Through Key Performance

Indicators of Sustainable Agriculture

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are

things we measure to inform decisions.

KPIs should be:

1. Outcomes Based

2. Science Driven

3. Technology Neutral

4. Transparent