dr. michael s. mccoy/incose_091707/ pg 1 introduction to system of systems dr. michael s. mccoy...

Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 1

Introduction to System of Systems

Dr. Michael S. McCoyBoeing Technical Fellow

17 September, 2007


What is A System?

A A System System is a is a collection of entities, elements, or collection of entities, elements, or components, e.g., people or machines, that act and components, e.g., people or machines, that act and interact together toward the accomplishment of some interact together toward the accomplishment of some logical end. logical end. • A system performs one or more functions.• A system is composed of interacting components.• A system performs functions not performable by its components.• A system has a boundary, separating it from everything else.

-- These are systems --

Small-scale Hardware

Large-scale Hardware People & Organizations


What is A System of Systems?

A A System of Systems (SoS) System of Systems (SoS) is a “super-system” made is a “super-system” made up of elements – each of which is itself a complex, up of elements – each of which is itself a complex, independent system -- that interact to achieve a independent system -- that interact to achieve a common goal.common goal.

-- Are These SoS? --

Major League Baseball

• SoS elements (i.e., the systems) can and do operate independently.• An SoS evolves – functions are added/removed/changed with experience.• An SoS exhibits emergent behavior not attributable to any element (system).• An SoS is geographically distributed – elements exchange information only.

International Air TravelJoint Theater Ops

Hardware


System of System Design ExampleObjective

Describe an analytical process used to optimize assets, performance, cost and planned expenditures to integrate, revitalize and modernize a System of System Force Structure.


Areas of Application

• Integrated Deepwater System – Optimize and rejuvenate the force structure of the U. S. Coast Guard

• Future Combat Systems – Define an optimal Brigade Force structure

• P8A – Integrating a new aircraft into the fleet• SBINet- Determine optimal coverage and coordination

between sensor, communications, C2.• General Navy Applications – formation of a carrier task

force• Air Force Applications – formation of an air wing


• Threat Definition• C4ISR Information Flow• Asset Roles• Scenario Definition

• Decision Aiding Algorithms• Command & Control Architectures• Communication Links and Protocols• Logistics Infrastructure• Common SW Architecture/Modules

• Risk Assessment• Acquisition Cost• O&S Cost• Logistics & Training Cost• Total Ownership Cost

Requirements Requirements Generation & Mission Generation & Mission

AnalysisAnalysis

Analysis of Alternatives, Analysis of Alternatives, Technology Insertion, & Technology Insertion, & Collaborative Innovation Collaborative Innovation

PlanPlan

System of Systems Analysis, System of Systems Analysis, Plan Synthesis, & Plan Synthesis, &

Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis

Technology & Technology & Acquisition PlanningAcquisition Planning

Test & EvaluationTest & Evaluation

CONOPS DevelopmentCONOPS Development

Develop Capability NeedsDevelop Capability Needs

SpiralSpiralDevelopmentDevelopment

Network Centric Operations Enable Systems of SystemsNetwork Centric Operations Enable Systems of Systems

Requirement Generation.•Mission Identification/analysis•Mission Scenarios Definitions•Rules of Engagement•Target Analysis•Asset Analysis•Info Requirements/Sources•Threat Assessment•C4ISR Information Flow

Analysis Approach


Typical Force Structure

Objective is to replace all assets and schedule the implementation.

Replacing• 44 cutters• 49 patrol boats• 46 patrol aircraft• 112 helicopters• 70 shore Command and

Control stations Upgrading• Communications• Logistics Infrastructure


U S Coast Guard Primary Missions

DetailedMission

Area

DetailedMission

Area EnvironmentalOperations

Foreign VesselInspection

DeployedPort Operations

Lightering ZoneEnforcement

Maritime InterceptOperations

AlienMigrant Interdiction

Operations

General DefenseOperations

General LawEnforcement

Search andRescue

Drug Interdiction

InternationalIce Patrol

MaritimePollution

LivingMarine Resources

Enforcement

AlienMigrant Interdiction

Operations

General DefenseOperations

General LawEnforcement

Search andRescue

Drug Interdiction

LivingMarine Resources

Enforcement


Mission Decomposition Example

Execute Smuggling Mission

Search &Detect Targets

Process Target Track

Intercept Target

ProsecuteTarget

CorrelateTarget Track

Fuse withTrack List

Sort & PrioritizeTrack List

Assign AssetTo Target

CommunicateTarget Assignment


Process &Communication

Search &Detect

Intercept

Prosecute

3-1 ProsecuteIn

Distress

RET

COMM

MaritimeSafety Tgt

Law Enforce

Tgt

US Reg

Foreign Reg

“Go-Fast”

RAFT

COMMProsecutePermitted

COMM

ProsecutePossible

RET

3-2

FVI

LZE

MARPOL(Vessel)

MARPOL(Debris/Poll.)

3-2Select

ProsecutionAsset

COMMArrive

Tgt LOC

Transit Prosecution Asset

to Tgt LOC

End Transit

RET

COMM

COMM 4-1

N

Y

Y

N

N

YCan

ID Asset Prosecute

Maintain Presence

Mission Flow Analysis


Mission Analysis Example

Task Information Required OutputMeasure of

EffectivenessPrimary

Responsibility1 CTU on Patrol in AOI Current Assigned AOI Presence per time period Time on Station Dist HQ/ CTU Commander

Intel on potential threats DeterrenceAssigned Patrol PatternAssign Patrol AssetsAssigned Capabilities

2 Sensor Search for AOI Contact Area to be searched Contact to be processed Contacts Processed CTU CommanderAsset types and capabilitiesTracks detectedTracks sortedTracks correlated

3 Off Board Sensor Contact from CTU Assets Area to be searchedAsset types and capabilities Contact to be processed Quality of data Offboard Asset /CTUTracks detected %time false alarmTracks sorted Time on SearchTracks correlated

4 Contact from Onboard Sensor Area to be searched Contact to be processed Quality of data CTU CommanderAsset types and capabilities %time false alarmTracks detected Time on SearchTracks sortedTracks correlated

5 Off Board Sensor Contact from Non-CTU Assets Area to be searched Contact to be processed Quality of data Offboard Non-CTU AssetAsset types and capabilities %time false alarmTracks detected Time on SearchTracks sortedTracks correlated

6 Communication: Voice, Data Link Sensor Contact by Offboard, Status of Contact Successful Comm Offboard CTU AssetCTU Asset TGT Info (Tenative) Que time of track data

- Type, Position, Speed, CourseTransmission time

CTUOn Patrol in AOI

SensorSearch for AOIContact

Off Board SensorContact

fromCTU Assets

Off Board SensorContact

fromNon-CTU Assets

COMM

Contact fromOnboard Sensor

Tentative IPT Responsibility

C4ISurfaceAir

C4ISurfaceAir

C4ISurfaceAir

C4ISurfaceAir

C4ISurfaceAir

C4ISurfaceAir


Analytical Approach

Asset Performance Asset Affordability

Surface Asset

Candidates

Air Asset Candidates

C4ISR Candidates

Logistics Candidates

System of Systems Analysis

Implementation PlanDevelopment

Cost/Affordability Guidelines Requirements Analysis

Mission Analysis

$$

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

SLEP CandidatesSystem Upgrades

Life Cycle Cost Analysis

New IDS Assets

Modernized Assets

Legacy Assets

Incre

asin

g E

ffecti

veness

Operational Effectiveness

AnalysisIDS SYSTEM ASSETS FY98 B/L FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04

R&D 2,461 421 421 421 421 421 421High Endurance Cutters (378) 1,106 144 144 144 144 144 144Medium Endurance Cutters (270) 528 82 82 82 82 82 82Medium Endurance Cutters (210) 647 76 76 76 76 76 76Patrol Boats 180 118 118 118 118 118 118

Acquisition 2,461 421 421 421 421 421 42112 High Endurance Cutters (378) 1,106 144 144 144 144 144 14413 Medium Endurance Cutters (270) 528 82 82 82 82 82 8218 Medium Endurance Cutters (210) 647 76 76 76 76 76 7649 Patrol Boats (110) 180 118 118 118 118 118 118

OE (B/L @ 20 Years) 8,412 421 421 421 421 421 42112 High Endurance Cutters (378) 2,880 144 144 144 144 144 14413 Medium Endurance Cutters (270) 1,641 82 82 82 82 82 8218 Medium Endurance Cutters (210) 1,522 76 76 76 76 76 7649 Patrol Boats (110) 2,369 118 118 118 118 118 118

Disposal 8,412 420.6 420.6 420.6 420.6 420.6 420.6High Endurance Cutters (378) 2880.0914 144 144 144 144 144 144Medium Endurance Cutters (270) 1641.1677 82.06 82.06 82.06 82.06 82.06 82.06Medium Endurance Cutters (210) 1521.8552 76.09 76.09 76.09 76.09 76.09 76.09Patrol Boats 2369.1013 118.5 118.5 118.5 118.5 118.5 118.5

IDS 20 YR LCC TOTAL 21,747High Endurance Cutters (378) 7,971Medium Endurance Cutters (270) 4,339Medium Endurance Cutters (210) 4,338Patrol Boats 5,098$

Asset Requirements System Requirements

Operational Effectiveness Analysis

Intel

Mission Effectiveness Tool Kit

Force StructureEvaluation

Alternate force package

Configurations

Implementation SchedulesLand Force

Candidates

AssetDeployment

Schedule

Asset Performance Asset Affordability

Surface Asset

Candidates

Air Asset Candidates

C4ISR Candidates

Logistics Candidates

System of Systems Analysis

Implementation PlanDevelopment

Cost/Affordability Guidelines Requirements Analysis

Mission Analysis

$$

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

SLEP CandidatesSystem Upgrades

Life Cycle Cost Analysis

New IDS Assets

Modernized Assets

Legacy Assets

Incre

asin

g E

ffecti

veness

Operational Effectiveness

AnalysisIDS SYSTEM ASSETS FY98 B/L FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04

R&D 2,461 421 421 421 421 421 421High Endurance Cutters (378) 1,106 144 144 144 144 144 144Medium Endurance Cutters (270) 528 82 82 82 82 82 82Medium Endurance Cutters (210) 647 76 76 76 76 76 76Patrol Boats 180 118 118 118 118 118 118

Acquisition 2,461 421 421 421 421 421 42112 High Endurance Cutters (378) 1,106 144 144 144 144 144 14413 Medium Endurance Cutters (270) 528 82 82 82 82 82 8218 Medium Endurance Cutters (210) 647 76 76 76 76 76 7649 Patrol Boats (110) 180 118 118 118 118 118 118

OE (B/L @ 20 Years) 8,412 421 421 421 421 421 42112 High Endurance Cutters (378) 2,880 144 144 144 144 144 14413 Medium Endurance Cutters (270) 1,641 82 82 82 82 82 8218 Medium Endurance Cutters (210) 1,522 76 76 76 76 76 7649 Patrol Boats (110) 2,369 118 118 118 118 118 118

Disposal 8,412 420.6 420.6 420.6 420.6 420.6 420.6High Endurance Cutters (378) 2880.0914 144 144 144 144 144 144Medium Endurance Cutters (270) 1641.1677 82.06 82.06 82.06 82.06 82.06 82.06Medium Endurance Cutters (210) 1521.8552 76.09 76.09 76.09 76.09 76.09 76.09Patrol Boats 2369.1013 118.5 118.5 118.5 118.5 118.5 118.5

IDS 20 YR LCC TOTAL 21,747High Endurance Cutters (378) 7,971Medium Endurance Cutters (270) 4,339Medium Endurance Cutters (210) 4,338Patrol Boats 5,098$

Asset Requirements System Requirements

Operational Effectiveness Analysis

Intel

Mission Effectiveness Tool Kit

Force StructureEvaluation

Alternate force package

Configurations

Implementation SchedulesLand Force

Candidates

AssetDeployment

Schedule


Asset Characteristics Trade Studies

Trade Studies SupportTrade Studies Support• Air Studies• Surface Studies• C4ISR Studies

• Sensors• Comm

• Logistics• Concept of Operations• Affordability

Output• Asset Performance estimates• Mission Performance contributions• Marginal improvement to missions given

new or upgraded assets

CONOPS

CONLOG,& C4ISR

Mission

Analysis


Cost estimating Relationship estimates

1

Driving system cost

IDSLCC

Cost metrics2 3 4

Driver metrics

Probability of success– Search and detect– Process– Intercept– Prosecute

Asset Cost & Performance•Technical•Reliability•Market Availability

# Prosecutions bymission type

Avg. Mission execution cost

# Prosecutionsper Area of Responsibility

Area Of Responsibilityoperating cost

# Prosecutionsper region

Regionaloperating cost

# Prosecutions

Performance metrics

Other Data Evaluated

PRELIMINARY

Use Data To Determine Best Value Solution Use Data To Determine Best Value Solution

Programmed Flight & Cutter Hours

Roll-up


DoD Application

Network Connected EnvironmentCoordinated Command and ControlIntelligence sharingOptimal allocation of resources to max.

effectiveness

“DoD” Force Structure Problem

System of Systems Analysis and Synthesis Process Adapted to FCS, P-8A, and Other Programs

System of Systems Analysis and Synthesis Process Adapted to FCS, P-8A, and Other Programs

Force DerivationForce DerivationDefine “Optimal Force Mix” to Integrate AssetsInputs•Asset Performance Capabilities•Asset AC&I and O&M Cost parameters•Mission Performance Requirements•Acquisition Budget over 20 years•O&M Budget for each year.

Outputs•Asset Mix by AOR by Quarter•Asset Deployment Requirements•Asset Performance •Expected Mission Performance by AOR


Affordability and Implementation Planning

Implementation Plan

AffordabilityAnalysis

Numberof assets

300

250

200

150

100

50

020

0220

0420

0620

0820

1020

1220

1420

1620

1820

2020

22

CRW-UAVMS-UAVSH-2GCN-235NSCGBCAPBC-130HH-65HH-60HU-25378270210110

New IDS Assets

Modernized Assets

Legacy Assets

Inc

rea

sin

g E

ffe

cti

ve

ne

ss

Asset Acquisition Scheduling

Implementation Plan & Implementation Plan & AffordabilityAffordability

Identify acquisition strategy over 40-year period

Inputs• Asset Basing & Scheduling• Asset Buying Strategy• Asset Retirement Strategy• Cost Constraints• Acquisition guidelines• Acquisition constraints

Tools• QuikScheduling • Contractor Scheduling Tool• Visual Basic• QuikPerformance

Outputs• Asset mix by year• Estimated Acquisition expended by

year• Estimated Operating expended by

year


Performance AssessmentPerformance AssessmentDetermine performance by yearEmulate Customer Model

Inputs• Number of Assets Available• Asset Basing and Schedule• Asset Capability• C4ISR Architecture• Logistics (Availability)

Output• Expected number of Missions

Performed• Utilization Rate of Assets• MOEs defined in Customer• Expected relative performance to

baseline

whec wmec wpb hc_130 hu_25 hh_60j hh_65a NSC GBC APB CN-235 HH-65 GX CRW V22Global_Hawk Overhead

Name Length Width (10) (26) (50) (13) (48) (22) (13) (15)

tex_mex_coast 250 90 13 51 42 3 2 100north_gulf 475 100 13 54 40 4 2 100red_snapper 100 100 13 53 41 3 1 100fl_straits_south 300 125 7 42 41 3 1 100fl_straits_east 375 125 11 58 39 3 1 100rock_shrimp 75 150 11 59 38 3 1 100yucatan 150 200 2 59 41 3 1windward 200 150 58 39 3 1mona 70 60 54 38 3 2 100anegota 200 500 35 42 3 3offshore_north 900 750 13 9 3 1 107 11gulf_of_maine 200 150 18 9 3 3 101 100 11georges_bank 200 150 21 8 3 3 100 11new_york_bight 100 200 21 7 3 2 126 100 11n_cape_hatteras 100 200 22 8 3 2 117 11s_cape_hatteras 100 200 5 23 7 3 2 123 100 11offshore_south 1300 350 27 7 3 0 111 11northwest 200 400 28 32 18 2 2 100 9california 200 700 26 30 18 2 2 100 9mexico 250 1800 18 31 16 2 0 9central_america 800 200 11 41 14 2 2 9hawaii 950 875 7 30 15 2 2 100 9central_pacific 1200 875 19 35 16 2 0 10western_pacific 1150 1075 18 35 15 2 1 10alaska_5 300 100 24 18alaska_6 800 150 16 9 2alaska_7 650 175 24 8 2alaska_8 300 550 37 6alaska_9 950 400 37 9alaska_10 2400 450 30 2

Preliminary Deployment Schedule from Jan Submital to MarOpsSim (2032)

AOR Percent of Time on Scene

Force Presence Model

QuikPerformance

0.0000.5001.0001.5002.000

2002

2008

2014

2020

2026

2032

2038

Time

Rel

ativ

e P

erfo

rman

ce

Optimal

CAP

Adverse

P-RAAT V3.0 Asset Object Model

Player

MissionAsset

Examples:SARDRUGAMIOLMRGLE

Sensorw/

Tracklist

Examples:MECMS UAV

Asset

Sensorw/

TracklistGlobal

Tracklist

Surface, Air and Space-based assets are individuallymodeled with their own sensors, and systemscommunicate through the “Global Tracklist”

Surface, Air and Space-based assets are individuallymodeled with their own sensors, and systemscommunicate through the “Global Tracklist”

A sset B asing and S chedu lingA sse t B asing and S chedu ling

Effectiveness Evaluation

® )

Process Simulation of Coast Guard MissionsProcess Simulation of Missions


Sample Scenario: SE Region(Notional)

Area of Responsibilities

(AOR)

Area of Responsibilities

(AOR)


Surveillance Satellite

Surveillance Satellite

AssetsAssets

TargetsTargets

Communication Network

Communication Network

Sample Scenario: Modules(Notional)

CubaCuba

MiamiMiami

Command and Control

Command and Control


SampleSimulation Output: Percent Prosecuted and Detected

(Notional)

AORsPer

cent

Pro

secu

ted

and

Det

ecte

d

40%

60%

80%

100%

Tex

Mex

Co

ast

No

rth

Gu

lf

Red

Sn

app

er

Fo

rid

a S

trai

ts S

ou

th

Fo

rid

a S

trai

ts E

ast

Ro

ck S

hri

mp

Yu

cata

n

Win

dw

ard

Mo

na

An

ego

ta

Off

sho

re N

ort

h

Gu

lf o

f M

ain

e

Geo

rges

Ban

k

New

Yo

rk B

igh

t

No

rth

Cap

e H

atte

ras

So

uth

Cap

e H

atte

ras

Off

sho

re S

ou

th

No

rth

wes

t

Cal

ifo

rnia

Mex

ico

Cen

tral

Am

eric

a

Haw

aii

Cen

tral

Pac

ific

Wes

tern

Pac

ific

Ala

ska

55.5

.5

Ala

ska

55.5

.6

Ala

ska

55.5

.7

Ala

ska

55.5

.8

Ala

ska

55.5

.9

Ala

ska

55.5

.10

Prosecuted Detected


Back-Up Slides


Implementation Plan

ForceStructure

EffectivenessEvaluation

CONOPs,CONLOG,& C4ISRMission Analysis

Force StructureOptimization

AffordabilityAnalysis

Numberof assets

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

CRW-UAVMS-UAVSH-2GCN-235NSCGBCAPBC-130HH-65HH-60HU-25378270210110

AOR Size ( L x W ) Target Speed= 5 kts

Length (nm) = 300

Width (nm) = 200

AOR (sq nm)= 60000

OTU Composition

Asset

No.Name

Asset

ClassQty Avail

Duty Cycle

(hrs/day)

Ant Ht

(ft)

Speed

(knots)

1 National Security Cutter (NSC) Surf 1 98% 24 100 28

2 WHEC-378' Surf 0 95% 24 80 22

3 WMEC-270' Surf 0 90% 24 60 20

4 WMEC-210' Surf 0 100% 24 60 18

5 Patrol Boat -110' Surf 2 95% 24 40 25

6 Patrol Boat Concept#1 Surf 0 100% 24 40 20

7 HH-65 Delphine Air 1 80% 4 500 125

8 Alt. Helo Concept Air 0 100% 4 500 100

9 Shipboard UAV (LAE) Air 1 95% 4 500 250

10 Long Endurance UAV (HAE) Air 0 95% 4 50000 350

11

Total OTU Elements= 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

XL(300 sqm)

L(80 sqm)

ML(40 sqm)

M(8 sqm)

MS(2 sqm)

S(0.25 sqm)

PIW(0.01 sqm)0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Target Duration in AOR (hrs)

Probability of Target Contact

0.8 - 1.000.60 - 0.800.40 - 0.60

0.20 - 0.40 0.00 - 0.20

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Cap

Years

Analysis Components


Deepwater Iterative Modeling Toolkit

QuikForce Structure (Define Optimal Force Mix)

Contracting Strategy Tool (Define Retirement and Acquisition Strategy

QuikBasing (Define Air Station Basing)

QuikSAR (AIR IPT support to evaluate Air Asset Trade Studies)

QuikScheduler (Define Optimal Force Deployment)

Arena Rapid Architecture Assessment Tool RAAT (Evaluate Force Mix Performance)

QuikPersonnel (Define Personnel Transition)

QuikPerformance (Estimate Implementation Performance)

Python RAAT (Evaluate Force Mix Performance)

Optimal Asset Mix

Acquisition Schedule with

Upgrades

Estimated Performance over entire period of performance

High Fidelity System Performance by year

Detailed Deployment Schedule per year

Scenario Editor (Visualize Scheduled Deployment)

USCG MAROPSSIM (Evaluate Force Mix Performance)

QuikNet (Evaluate Comm networks Performance)

IPT Support ToolsForce Optimization ToolImplementation ToolAsset Scheduling ToolsPerformance Assessment Tools

C4ISim(Visualize initial CONOPs)

Under Development

Quik_PD(Compute Prob of Detection)

Quik_AC_LOG (compute Aircraft Availability)

SLAMEM (Mission Model)

Quik Presence(Define estimated presence in AORs)

Comm Delay & ProbabilityConnectivity

MTTFMTBFMTTR

Comm NetPerformance

AssetPerformance

Air & Surface AssetPerformanceSensor

Data

CONOPs & AssetPerformance

AssetPerformance

Acquisition Schedule with Upgrades

Personnel Flux based on Acquisition

Air & Surface Asset Performance with C4ISR and Logistics Specifications

CAAT (C4ISR System-Level Performance Metrics and System Trades)

QuikIntel (compute Intel timeline and performance)

dr. michael s. mccoy/incose_091707/ pg 1 introduction to system of systems dr. michael s. mccoy...

Documents

system of systems sos

element system

independent system

air wing slide

patrol aircraft

hardware people organizations

interacting components

technology insertion