dr. ozcan saritas [email protected]
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Innovation Foresight, Foresightful Innovation. Dr. Ozcan Saritas [email protected]. Drivers of innovation. Printing, gunpowder and the compass have changed the whole face and state of things throughout the world... (Francis Bacon, 1620). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Dr. Ozcan [email protected]
Innovation Foresight, Foresightful Innovation
2Dr. Ozcan Saritas
Printing, gunpowder and the compass have changed the whole face and state of things throughout the world... (Francis Bacon, 1620).
Improvements in machinery go hand in hand with the division of labor, and very pretty machines ... facilitate and quicken production... (Adam Smith, 1776).
The bourgeoisie cannot exist without constantly revolutionizing the means of production! (Karl Marx, 1848).
Knowledge is the chief engine of progress in the economy (Alfred Marshall, 1897).
The entrepreneur and his search for new combinations is the driving force in all economic development... (Joseph Schumpeter, 1911).
Science and basic research are incredibly powerful sources of future economic and societal development... (Vannevar Bush, 1945).
Drivers of innovation
What future for nano?Increasing push for greater efficiency and decarbonisation of the energy system because of the environmental and energy security concerns
Trends
Environmental policies change behaviours and shift societal actions more toward integral or internalized measures – such as recycling requirements
Drivers of change
New global context &Challenges for
Innovation
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• Increased financial, trade and investment flows• Rapid and accelerating technological progress;
ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies• New international regulations and standards on
trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights
• New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage products and services
• Global value chains and production networks
New innovation paradigm
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• Innovation paradigm has shifted from technology and markets to ecosystems of research and social networks, services and policy
• Linear model of innovation is outpaced. Focus on ‘integration and networking’
• Innovation as a dynamic ‘system’: It is multidisciplinary and technologically complex
• Global innovation landscape – with advances coming from centers of excellence around the world and the demands of billions of new consumers
• Relationship between technology and society: Social Shaping of Technology-Framework
• Necessity to diagnose the changing Innovation landscape to address these issues for ‘Foresightful Innovation’
Innovation Foresight (IF) for Foresightful Innovation
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IF draws on the systematic involvement of stakeholders from the early stages of a holistic innovation process by discovering future opportunities and risks and informing present-day decision-making, strategic thinking with a long-term vision in the innovation development trajectory.
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• Anticipation and projections of long-term developments
• Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis
• Forging new social networks
• Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment
• Implications for present-day decisions and actions
Essential elements of Innovation Foresight
Key requirements
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• Multi-context focus– Understanding real-life systems and natural settings– Long-term focus with intelligence gathering to explore
novel ideas and avoid shocks
• Inclusivity– Participation of all stakeholders on equal terms– Involvement troughout whole process
• Methodological support– Integration of best practices, methods and tools– Understanding the shortcomings of traditional user
research methods (plasticity)
Innovation Foresight
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• Fits in open, society-driven innovation paradigm• Facilitates future-oriented dialogue between the
relevant stakeholders in the systemic innovation process
• Enables collective visioning, mutual learning and networking and
• Yields long term strategic orientation, future innovation opportunities and research priorities
• Aims at greater inclusivity through SST-approach to Foresight
• Inclusive process draws on formal Foresight methods
Intelligence – Creates shared understanding and mutual
appreciation of issues at hand Imagination
– The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world
Integration– Analyses the alternative models of the future
and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future
Interpretation– Translates future visions into long-,
medium-, and short-term actions for a successful change programme
Intervention– Creates plans to inform present day decisions
for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations
Phases of Innovation Foresight
Intelligence
Imagination
IntegrationInterpretation
Intervention
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Scanning
PanelsWorkshops
Bibliometrics/ Data Mining
LiteratureReview
Interviews
SystemAnalysis
Trends/DriversIndicators
IntelligenceScanning for Intelligence gathering “The systematic examination of potential threats,
opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends” (DEFRA, 2002)
Selecting the main areas for intervention, the boundaries of the Foresight are drawn and the ‘content’ of Foresight is built with scanning
Scanning provides the basic input to the entire activity and involves analysis of Trends, Drivers of Change, Wild Cards / Shocks, Weak Signals and Discontinuities
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What kind of developments will occur? Which ones of them could be beneficial and which ones
harmful? How soon may these developments occur? What might be the first signs that these developments are
happening? Where and how might the leading indications of impending
change be seen? Who is in a position anywhere to observe these indications? What is worth to minimise the extent of surprise introduced by
these indications? Who needs to know about these impending changes?
Key questions for Intelligence gathering
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Social system
Technological system
Economic system
Ecological system
Political system
Values
Context, content & process of Foresight
[Reger, 2001]
Information sources
• Evidence-based Foresight & Policy: Using best evidence to make decisions about the future
• Fit between expertise, expectations and evidence
• Subjectivity of information
• Quality of data
Points to consider on the use of information
• EU-27, North America and Asia-Pacific are the core regions affected by most of the trends
• Environmental sustainability, alternative energy sources, increasing conflicts and enhancement of S&T are globally shared trends
• Equal opportunities, increased consumption, privacy and security concerns are connected largely to the Western world
• Ageing population is a concern in the EU and EU candidate countries and North America
World regions
Trends
BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions
• 2008-2015• Environmental and
sustainability concerns are shared by all
• Changing socio-economic patterns and environmental and sustainability concerns are tightly linked
• Financial crisis close to the core issues
BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions
T
• 2016-2025• The relationship
between environmental and sustainability concerns, alternative energy sources, and the role of S&T is emphasised by all
• Ageing population is a more shared concern
• Financial crisis becomes more peripheral for world regions
BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions
T
• 2025 - beyond• Climate change is
right at the centre and becomes appreciated by all world regions
• More emphasis on the scarcity of natural resources
• No mention of financial crisis, globalisation, and new diseases and pandemics
BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions
T
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Gaming
PanelsWorkshops
ScenarioPlanning
Wild CardWeak Signals
NetworkAnalysis
Modelling/ Simulation
Agent BasedModelling
Imagination
“Imagination is more than knowledge” – A. Einstein
Generation of new ideas or concepts, or new associations between existing ideas or concepts
Production of models to promote understanding of systems and situations within the limits of uncertainties
Modelling formalises thought experiments leads to the further development of Foresight process and presentation of the outcome
Jean-Marc Côté's Visions of the Year 2000 (1899)
People of the year 2000, amazed at the sight of a horse. (French postcard circa 1910)
What of the Horse a Hundred Years Hence?
1-year Present
The time it takes planet earth to circle the sun onceCycle of seasonsUnit of time measurement for human livesFarming and crop rotation
10-year Present
Sizeable chunk of a human lifetimeLong enough to provide insight into dynamic processesIdeal for noting environmental and ecological factorsA reasonable horizon for testing new products and servicesThe time it takes to plan and build major infrastructure items
20-year Present
Cycle of generations for human beings: (Veterans, 1922-1943); (Baby Boomers, 1943-1960); (Generation Xs (1960-1980);The Nexters (1980-2000))Long enough to observe the economics and social impact of strategic R&D activities, e.g. the identification of CFCsscientifically and the sign of the international contract to take precautionary measures (1974-1990)
50-year PresentIncorporates some major concerns of a technologically advanced cultureCulturally significant period to understand trends and change processesEnough to judge the impacts and implications of existing and new technologies
100-year Present
Boundary of a single lifetimeLong cycles can be distinguishedThe rise and fall of regions, industries and ecosystemsTheories and history and futures begin to flourish
200-year Present
Ideal timeframe for cultures in transitionA time with which generations are linkedEnough to develop intergenerational biography and dialogueThe rise and fall of cultures, empires and entire ecosystemsMacro view of history; the panorama of the centuries
Understanding the time spans of change
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SWOTAnalysis
PanelsWorkshops
Multi CriteriaAnalysis
Cross ImpactAnalysis
Prioritisation/ Delphi
Benefit/Cost/Risk Analysis
ScoringVoting/Rating
Integration Concerned with the systemic analysis of future
alternatives and building a vision
The analysis and selection of a desired system is multifaceted as there is a variety of worldviews and expectations to be negotiated.
For a system to be viable in the long term, the claims of different stakeholders must be considered adequately, and attention must be given to ethical and aesthetic aspects for the pursuit of ideals such as beauty, truth, good and plenty (Ackoff, 1981).
The end product of this phase is an agreed model of the future
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Backcasting
PanelsWorkshops
Road Mapping
RelevanceTrees
Logic Charts
StrategicPlanning
LinearProgramming
Interpretation Translates visions into strategies for a successful
change programme. Conditions for the successful transformation
strategies:- Assessment (e.g. processing information;
developing an understanding of the continuously changing context; and becoming an open learning system)
- Leadership (e.g. having a context-sensitive leadership; creating capabilities for change; and linking actions with resources)
- Linking strategic and operational change (e.g. supplying visions, values and directions)
- Management of human resources (e.g. demonstrating the need for change in people and behaviours)
- Coherence (e.g. adaptive response to environment; and maintaining competitive advantage)
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Priority Lists
PanelsWorkshops
ImpactAssessment
R&DPlanning
Critical/KeyTechnologies
OperationalPlanning
Action Planning
Intervention Any Foresight exercise has to inform policies and
actions.
Foresight suggests actions concerning immediate change actions to implement structural and behavioural transformations.
Actions for change are determined by considering the following capabilities of the system under investigation:- Adapting- Influencing and shaping its context- Finding a new milieu or modelling itself virtuously in
its context- Adding value to the viability and development of
wider wholes in which it is embedded
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Inte
racti
onInteraction
• Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new ‘regulatory’ system– Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and
expression, and an organised civil society with full protection of human rights
– Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation
– Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework
– Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources
• The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars: Governance, Socio-cultural evolution & Corporate industrial activity
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Science &Ecology
Technology& Economics
SocioeconomicsPolitics & Values
What is possible?
What is desirable?
What is feasible?
Systemic Foresight
Questions for Foresight
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InterventionInterpretationImaginationIntelligence Integration
Scanning
PanelsWorkshops
Inte
racti
on
Bibliometrics/ Data Mining
LiteratureReview
Interviews
SystemAnalysis
Trends/DriversIndicators
Priority Lists
PanelsWorkshops
ImpactAssessment
R&DPlanning
Critical/KeyTechnologies
OperationalPlanning
Action Planning
Gaming
PanelsWorkshops
ScenarioPlanning
Wild CardWeak Signals
NetworkAnalysis
Modelling/ Simulation
Agent BasedModelling
SWOTAnalysis
PanelsWorkshops
Multi CriteriaAnalysis
Cross ImpactAnalysis
Prioritisation/ Delphi
Benefit/Cost/Risk Analysis
ScoringVoting/Rating
Backcasting
PanelsWorkshops
Road Mapping
RelevanceTrees
Logic Charts
StrategicPlanning
LinearProgramming
Putting all together: Innovation Foresight
Innovation Foresight
Intelligence
Imagination
IntegrationInterpretation
Intervention