Decision Support System for the Connecticut River

Basin

Dr. Richard PalmerProfessor and Head

Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst

Welcome

Introductory Comments

We anticipate a good deal of exchange

There will be numerous presentations

The presentations should stimulate questions

We want to hear from you today

Let us know if you feel like this!

 

Study Goal

Create a basin-wide hydrologic model decision support tool that will allow water managers and other key stakeholders to evaluate environmental and economic outcomes based on various management scenarios. 

Study Sub-Goals

•Where it is possible, restore the timing and magnitude of high flow events to increase floodplain inundation and restore channel processes

•Reduce within day flow variability to improve the quality and quantity of aquatic habitat

•In rivers with human induced chronic low flows, seeks ways to ameliorate the effects of large water withdrawals and maintain healthy ecosystems

•Seek operating policies that improve traditional (flood control, water supply, hydropower, etc.) and river ecological functions

Study Goal

Identify and evaluate operational policies for the Connecticut River using a decision support system that will enhance environmental benefits while maintaining or increasing existing benefits such as hydropower production, water supply, recreation, and irrigation.

When Viewed as an optimization problem

Study Goal

This goal will be achieved with:• careful evaluation of current

operations,

• interactions with stakeholders, and

• the generation of new operational alternatives that improve overall system performance.

Today's Vocabulary

Simulation Models

Optimization Models

Decision Support Systems

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Simulation andOptimization Models

Simulation Models

• Answers “what-if” questions about a system

• Follows logic reasoning to determine releases and storages from a reservoir based on target storages, min/max releases, etc.

• Easily adjusted to examine and compare different scenarios

Optimization Models

• Maximizes/minimizes a given objective: deviations from targets, hydropower, etc.

• Operating rules are either targets or constraints.

• Can prioritize objectives through weighting

• Demonstrates how an objective can be reached through changing operations

• Trade off curves: what must be sacrificed to make gains in objective

Components of the Decision Support System

Water Resources DDS Components

• Meteorological Inputs

• Hydrologic Inputs

• Physical Features

• Operational Considerations

• Environmental Targets

Decision Support System

• Decision support systems are typically computer-based information systems that support decision-making activities.

• DSSs are often composed of both data and linked "models."

• DSSs support decision, they do not make decisions.

SIMULATION

OPTIMIZATION

HEC-RAS

ECO-FLOW PRESCIPTIONS

STAKEHOLDER NEEDS

CLIMATE IMPACTED

STREAMFLOW

FORECASTED STREAMFLOW

HISTORIC STREAMFLOW

(SYE)

Alternative System

Operations

INPUT MODELSHYDROLOGY

SYSTEM CONSTRAINTS AND TARGETS

SIMULATION

OPTIMIZATION

HEC-RAS

ECO-FLOW PRESCIPTIONS

STAKEHOLDER NEEDS

CLIMATE IMPACTED

STREAMFLOW

FORECASTED STREAMFLOW

HISTORIC STREAMFLOW

(SYE)

Alternative System

Operations

INPUT MODELSHYDROLOGY

SYSTEM CONSTRAINTS AND TARGETS

DSS

Study Overview

The Connecticut River Basin• Home to 2.3 million people• Largest River in New England• Spans 4 States: VT, NH, MA, CT

The Project

How can we optimize dam operations for various objectives?

• 44 sub basins• Over 60 major dams• Over 100 ecological nodes

Basin Wide Optimization Problem

Modeling Process

Simulation Tool of the Basin

Optimization model With Current Operations as

Targets

Introduce New Targets/Objectives in Optimization Model

and Create Trade-Off Curves

• Understanding of Current System

• Calibrated to historical release/storage data

• Current operating rules as targets (some as constraints)

• Since there are no new objectives, it should yield similar results as simulation model

• New targets and objectives introduced

• Determine benefits gained from altering operations

• Trade offs between competing objectives

Examine current operations to see where improvements can be made

Short term forecasts can predict stream flow for reservoir operation planning

Climate impacted stream flow can be used as input to determine reservoir operations in the future

How Can You Use These Models?

1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13

Time Line

SYE

RES-SIM

SIM-OPTI

Climate Flows

EcoFlow

HEC -RAS