dr. robert pepper presentation iic montreal 10 2009

© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 1

Towards an Exabyte Broadband World

Robert PepperVice President Global Technology Policy

IIC 40th Annual Meeting26 October 2009


The History of Internet Projections, Part I

Analyst projections in 1996

Actuals


The History of Internet Projections, Part II

Analyst projections in 2001

Actuals


Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Based on Cisco’s methodology and independent analysts’ projections (VNI Forecast), WW consumer surveys and feedback (VNI Pulse), and global Service Provider network data (VNI Usage), Cisco is developing a unique and comprehensive view of IP networking growth and trends worldwide.

Global IP Traffic Growth

How often do you upload video you created to a

public website?

Analyzing Residential, Business and Mobile IP Networking Trends

0

25,000

50,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PB

/mo Mobility

Business InternetBusiness IP WANConsumer InternetConsumer IPTV/CATV

46% CAGR 2007-2012


The Zettabyte Scale1 Petabyte

1,000 Terabytes or 250,000 DVDs

1 Exabyte 1,000 Petabytes or

250 million DVDs

1 Zettabyte 1,000 Exabytes or

250 billion DVDs

1 Yottabyte 1,000 Zettabytes or

250 trillion DVDs

5 ExabytesA transcript of all words ever spoken

20 YottabytesA holographic snapshot of the earth’s surface

200 TerabytesA digital library of all books ever written in any language

175 ExabytesThe amount of data that will cross the Internet in 2010 alone

150 ExabytesThe amount of data that has traversed the Internet since its creation

100 PetabytesThe amount of data produced in a single minute by the new particle collider at CERN

100 ExabytesA video recording of the all the meetings that took place last year across the world

66 ZettabytesThe amount of visual information conveyed from the eyes to the brain of the entire human race in a single year

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index


Global IP Traffic GrowthIP traffic will increase 6X from 2007 to 2012In 2012, half a zettabyte will cross the global network

46% CAGR 2007-2012

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2007-2012


Global Consumer Internet Traffic MixVideo will be nearly 50% of traffic by 2012

41% CAGR 2007-2012



Global Mobile Data Traffic GrowthVideo will account for 64% of mobile traffic by 2013

131% CAGR 2008 - 2013


64%

10%

19%

7%


Unpredictability of Traffic Growth: An Era of Minority Rule?

4 million consumers

downloading 2 HD movies per

month

50 million consumers watching 50

YouTube videos per

month

Source: Cisco, 2008


Shift in Peak-to-Average Ratio

Source: Cisco Service Control Engine, 2008


Dimensions of Broadband

Bandwidth—”speed” Latency Jitter Symmetry Bursting Other…


Matching Broadband to Applications“Fit for Purpose” Networks

Bandwidth

Low

High

HighLow

TelepresenceVoice

HD-IPTV

Sensitiveto Latency

StreamingAudio

Gaming(LD)

Gaming(HD)

Email

DownloadVideo

StreamingVideo


Broadband Quality ScoreA global study of broadband quality

September 2009

Sponsored by


2000 2005 2010 2015

Broa

dban

d Q

ualit

y

TWO WAVES OF BROADBAND SERVICES

Social networking LD video streaming Basic video chatting Small file sharing SD IPTV

Visual networking HD video streaming Consumer telepresence Large file sharing HD IPTV

Requirements Download 3.75 Mbps Upload 1 Mbps Latency 95ms

Requirements• Download 11.25Mbps• Upload 5Mbps• Latency 60ms

Today

Tomorrow

What the study established in 2008Changing quality requirements


Broadband Quality Score (BQS)

BQS is calculated based on normalized values of:

Download and Upload throughput, and Latency

24 million records sourced from actual tests from Speedtest.net (Ookla) during May 2008 and May - July 2009

Weights assigned to each factor for today’s and tomorrow’s (3 to 5 years) applications.

BQS (today) = 55% Download + 23% Upload + 22%Latency

BQS (tmrw) = 45% Download + 32% Upload + 23%Latency

BQS THRESHOLD CALCULATION

BQS threshold: 30 Download 3.75 Mbps Upload 1 Mbps Latency 95ms

BQS threshold: 50 Download 11.25Mbps Upload 5Mbps Latency 60ms


Ready for tomorrow

Comfortably enjoying today’s applications

Meeting needs of today’s applications

Below today’s applications threshold

Leapfrog Opportunity

BQS by countries 2008


Ready for tomorrow

Comfortably enjoying today’s applications

Meeting needs of today’s applications

Below today’s applications threshold

Leapfrog Opportunity

BQS by countries 2009


Regional improvement of BQS


BQS

0

40

60

20

80

100

BROADBAND LEADERSHIP MATRIX

BQS

0

40

60

20

80

100

Penetration (% Households)20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%

PENETRATION LEADERS

CATCH-UP

QUALITYLEADERS

LEAP-FROG

Broadband Leadership - Redefined


BROADBAND LEADERSHIP MATRIX (TOP-20)

1. S Korea2. Japan3. Hong Kong4. Sweden5. Switzerland6. Netherlands7. Singapore8. Luxembourg9. Denmark10. Norway11. Malta12. Iceland13. Australia14. Lithuania15. United States16. Ireland17. Canada18. France19. Estonia20. Belgium

QUALITYLEADERS

PENETRATION LEADERS

CATCH-UP

Broadband Leadership Top 20

100 =BQS actual value 66

N.B. All BQS values have been normalised to a scale of 0 – 100 with 66 = 100


Demand/Usage Driving Change

User driven demand for video Application, “fit for purpose” driven

Differentiated services

Not all bits are created equal

Implications for networksFixed and mobile

Investment

Architecture

Managing for differentiation Implications for traditional content industries