dr. shahram yazdani human capital shahid beheshti university of medical sciences school of medical...
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Human Capital
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesSchool of Medical Education
Strategic Policy Sessions: 14
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Natural Capital
Financial and Physical Capital
Human Capital
Social Capital
IntellectualCapital
Our Capitals
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Iran is a resource-rich country
The fifth largest oil reserves in the world (about 90 billion barrels)
The second largest gas reserves (about 23 trillion cubic meters).
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Reserves
Billion Barrel
Share in World Total
Production
1,000 B/D
Share in World Total
Recoverable
Years
North America 63.7 6.2 13,700 19.1 18.8
Latin America 89.5 8.7 6,690 9.3 37.7
Europe 20.6 2.0 6,975 9.7 8.3
Russia 48.6 4.7 6,180 8.6 21.8
Iran 89.7 8.7 3,550 4.9 69.9
Iraq 112.5 10.9 2,580 3.6 119.5
Kuwait 96.5 9.3 2,025 2.8 130.6
Saudi Arabia 263.5 25.5 8,595 12.0 87.5
Crude Oil Reserves, Production and R/P
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Natural Gas Reserves, Production and R/P
Reserves
TCM
Share in World Total
Production
BCM/D
Share in World Total
Recoverable
Years
North America 7.3 5.0 740 31.8 9.9
Latin America 6.3 4.3 95 4.1 66.2
Europe 5.1 3.5 282 12.1 18.2
Russia 48.1 32.9 551 23.7 87.4
Iran 23.0 15.7 52 2.3 438.1
Iraq 3.1 2.1 0 0 -----
Qatar 8.5 5.8 24 1 353.8
Saudi Arabia 5.8 4.0 46 2 125.3
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Economic growth rates by country group, 1980–98
Countries that grew
in GDP per capita
Average annual growth
in GDP per capita (%)
Technology innovators
18 out of 18 1.7
Transition countries 4 out of 12 –1.7
Fuel exporters 2 out of 13 –1.5
Manufacturing exporters
23 out of 24 2.7
Commodity exporters 29 out of 61 –0.1
Dr. S
hahra
m
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ani
Percent of Total Exports
Primary Products
Manufactured Goods
Iran 91 9
Egypt 62 38
Turkey 25 75
Morocco 65 35
Tunisia 22 78
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
A quick look at OPEC
• Nigeria has been stagnant since independence in 1960: No growth
• Per capita growth 1965-1998• Iran and Venezuela: -1% per year• Libya: -2%• Iraq and Kuwait: -3%• Qatar: -6%
• Why?
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Is OPEC an exception?
No, this seems to be a general pattern.
Of 65 natural resource abundant countries 1970-1998, only four hadInvestment of more than 25% of
GDPPer capita GNP growth of more
than 4% per year
They are:Botswana, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Thailand
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Economic growth and natural capital
8855 countries countries
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Share of natural capital in national wealth 1994 (%)
Gro
wth
of
GN
P p
er
ca
pit
a 1
96
5-9
8, a
dju
ste
d f
or
init
ial
inc
om
e (
%)
r = -0.64A ten percentage point increase in the natural capital share goes along with a decrease in per capita growth by 1% per year.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
91 countries91 countries
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Share of natural capital in national wealth 1994 (%)
Ac
tua
l le
ss
pre
dic
ted
ex
po
rts
19
65
-98
(%
of
GD
P)A ten percentage
point increase in the natural capital share goes along with a decrease in openness by 4% of GDP.
Openness and natural capital
r = -0.33
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
60 countries60 countries
Corruption and natural capital
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 10 20 30 40
Share of natural capital in national wealth 1994 (%)
Co
rru
pti
on
pe
rce
pti
on
s in
de
x 2
00
0
A ten percentage point increase in the natural capital share goes along with an increase in corruption by 1.3 points.
r = -0.52
Natural capital
crowds o
ut
social ca
pital
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Expenditure on education and natural capital
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Share of natural capital in national wealth 1994 (%)
Pu
blic
ex
pe
nd
itu
re o
n e
du
ca
tio
n 1
98
0-9
7 (
% o
f G
NP
)
An 18 percentage point increase in the natural capital share is associated with a decrease in public expenditure on education by 1% of GNP.
90 countries90 countries
r = -0.32
Natural capital
crowds o
ut
human capital
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Secondary enrolment and natural capital
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Share of natural capital in national wealth 1994 (%)
Gro
ss
se
co
nd
ary
-sc
ho
ol e
nro
lme
nt
19
80
-97
(%
)
A five percentage point increase in the natural capital share goes along with a decrease in secondary-school enrolment by almost 10 percentage points.
91 countries91 countries
r = -0.66
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Economic growth and education
8877 countries countries
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Gross secondary-school enrolment 1980-97 (%)
An
nu
al g
row
th o
f G
NP
pe
r c
ap
ita
19
65
-98
, ad
jus
ted
fo
r in
itia
l in
co
me
(%
)
r = 0.69
A 30 point increase in the secondary enrolment rate goes along with an increase in per capita growth by 1% per year.
Education is
good for g
rowth
and vice versa
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Summary of results on education
Growth
Education
Growth
Resources
EducationEducation
Resources
+ =
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Investment and natural capital
85 countries85 countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Share of natural capital in national wealth 1994 (%)
Gro
ss
do
me
sti
c in
ve
stm
en
t 1
96
5-9
8 (
% o
f G
NP
)
r = -0.38
A ten point increase in the natural capital share goes along with a decrease in investment by 2% of GDP.
Natural capital
crowds o
ut
physical ca
pital
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Economic growth and investment
85 countries85 countries
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Gross domestic investment 1965-1998 (% of GNP)
Gro
wth
of
GN
P p
er
ca
pit
a 1
96
5-9
8, a
dju
ste
d f
or
init
ial
inc
om
e (
%)
r = 0.65
A five point increase in investment share goes along with an increase in per capita growth by 1%.
Investment is
good for g
rowth
and vice versa
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Summary of results on investment
Growth
Investment
Growth
Resources
InvestmentInvestment
Resources
+ =
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
20
Shares of wealth by income group
16% 19% 17%
26% 13%2%
59% 68%80%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Low Income Middle Income High IncomeOECD
Per
cen
t
Produced capital Natural capital Intangible capital
Intangible capital is the largest share of wealth
Natural capital share declines with income
In the poorest countries, natural capital is more important than produced capital
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
21
The value of natural capital per capita rises with income
1089
3825
931
14432119
4775
325 157288
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Low Income Middle Income High IncomeOECD
$ p
er c
apit
a
Land
Timber
Sub-soil
Development does not automatically lead to depletion of environment
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Relationship Between Human Capital and GDP
The average number of years of study is a major factor in human capital.
1 year of college for all workers led to a direct rise of about 7% in GDP.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Education Level is Closely Associated with Increased Earnings
High School Dropout $20,000/year
High School Diploma $30,000/year
Bachelor’s Degree $50,000/year
Master’s Degree $60,000/year
Doctorate Degree $78,000/year
Professional $93,000/year
Average Earnings, U.S., Age 25 & Older, Full-time Employment, 2000.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 2001.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Education & Lifestyle
An individual with a bachelor’s degree, on average, will earn about 2 ½ times that of a high school dropout.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
HS Dropout/College Grad Economic Comparison
Dropout GraduateAnnual Earnings $ 20,000 $50,000Lifetime Earnings $800,000 $2,000,000Total Fed. Taxes* $ 80,000 $400,000Total Earning Minus Taxes $720,000 $1,600,000
* Over 40 years work life
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
More Education Means a Better Economy
The highly educated earner spends and contributes significantly more to the economy than does the less-educated earner.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Spending $$$ on Education Reduces Crime*
A significant part of lower incarceration rates results from the higher wages that high school graduates earn as compared to high school dropouts
A 1% increase in the high school graduation rate would save the
U. S. as much as $1.4 billion per year in reduced crime costs and would result in $1,170 to $2,100 per additional high school graduate
*Lochner, L. and Moretti, E. “The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports” 2001 Joint Center for Poverty Research, Policy Brief, vol. 4; no. 5, p. 26.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Education Increases a Community’s Quality of Life
• Voting frequency• Health insurance• Volunteerism• Charitable
contributions• Leisure activities
• Cultural activities• Childbirth inside or
before marriage• Prenatal care• Crime victimization
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Voting Behavior By Educational Attainment
1-3 years 4 years 4 years High School High School College ++US Congress
1974 25% 42% 59% 1994 13% 31% 57%Presidential
1964 61% 76% 86% 1984 29% 49% 75% 1992 27% 50% 79%
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Health Insurance & Education, cont.
In 1999 those who had a college degree or higher were 300% more likely to have health insurance as compared with those who did not have a high school diploma.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
People Without Health Insurance by Education Level, 1999
W/O Health Insurance
No HS Diploma 27%
HS Graduate 18%
Some College 15%
AA Degree 13%
Bachelors or Above 8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2000.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Education & Health
• Current research is finding biological proof of education’s possible protective effect on a person’s health
• A recent study finds a correlation between the more years of formal education & the less likely individuals were to exhibit Alzheimer’s disease symptoms of dementia
• People with 22 year of formal education, showed less effects of the disease while living & the disease had less effect on their cognitive test scores
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Volunteers & Education
• 2/3 of the college graduate population performed some sort of volunteer work during a year compared with somewhere between 30% and 43% of high school drop outs
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Percent of Adult Population Doing Volunteer Work, 1998
% of Population Average #
Volunteering Hours/Week
Elementary School 30% ---
Some High School 43% 3.9 Hours
HS Graduate 43% 2.8 Hours
Trade, Technical,
Business School Grad 54% 3.5 Hours
College Graduate 68% 3.1 Hours
Source: Saxon-Harrold, Susan K.E., Murray Weitzman, and the Gallup Organization, Inc. Giving and Volunteering in the United States: 1999 Edition. (Copyright and published by INDEPENDENT SECTOR, Washington, D.C., 2000.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Charitable Contributions & Education
Persons with lower levels of income tend to donate fewer total dollars but a larger percentage of their incomes to charities.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Charitable Contributions by Household Income, 1998
Household Income All Contributing Households Average $$$$ % of Household Income
Under $10,000 329 5.2%
$ 10,000 – 19,999 495 3.3%
$ 20,000 – 29,999 552 2.2%
$ 40,000 – 49,999 951 2.1%
$ 75,000 – 99,999 1394 2.6%
$100,000 & up 2550 2.2%
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Charitable Contributions, 1998
% of Average
Type of Charity Households $$$ Contribution
Arts, Culture 11.4% $221Education 12.6% $382Environment 12.4% $194Health 20.8% $234Human Services 27.3% $250Public,Social Benefit 11.1% $134Youth Development 21.4% $174
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
% of Participation in Leisure Activities by Education, 1997
Education Level Attendance/ParticipationMovies Sports Exercise Home
Improvem’t
Grade School 14% 13% 46% 40%
Some HS 52% 25% 66% 59%
HS Graduate 62% 38% 74% 65%
Some College 78% 48% 81% 71%
College Graduate 82% 59% 87% 76%
Source: U.S. National Endowment for the Arts, 1997 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts, Research Division Report No. 39, December 1998.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Cultural Events Attendance & Education Level, 1997
Attendance at least once in past 12 months
Music Opera Theatre Art Museum
Grade School 2% --- 3% 6%
Some HS 3% 2% 7% 14%
HS Graduate 7% 2% 9% 25%
College Grad 21% 10% 28% 58%
Grad. School 28% 14% 37% 70%
Source: U.S. National Endowment for the Arts, 1997 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts, Research Division Report No. 39, 1998.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Child Bearing & Education
• Almost 2/3 of first births for high school dropouts were premarital
• Fewer than 10% of first births before marriage for those with a college degree or higher
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Childbearing Statistics Have Large Economic Implications
Two-parent families form more stable environments to raise children
They have more money & other resources to meet their children’s and own personal, health, social, & educational needs
They are more likely to raise children who value education have fewer special learning needs develop good work habits prepare for well-paying careers contribute to their community
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Prenatal Care & Mother’s Education, 1991-1995
Education Level Months Pregnant When Starting Care Less than 3-4 Months 5 Months +
3 Months or No Care
No HS Diploma 79% 7% 14%
HS Diploma/GED 89% 6% 5%
Some College 95% 3% 3%
BA Degree or 94% 2% 4%
Higher
Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, Fertility, Family Planning, and Women’s Health: New Data From the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth, Vital and Health Statistics, Series 23, No. 19, 1997.
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Crime Victim Status & Education
• For those making $60,000/year (the average salary for an individual with a Masters degree) about 1/3 are victims of a crime
• For high school dropouts in the lowest income categories, between 1/2 - almost 2/3 are crime victims
Thank You !
Any Question ?
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
Crime Victimization by Family Income (Education)
Rate per 1000 persons, age 12 and upIncome All Crimes Robbery Assault Theft
Less than $7500 66% 6.6% 54% 1.7%$7500 – 14,999 51% 5.8% 41% 1.8%$15,000-24,999 41% 3.6% 34% 1.3%$25,000-34,999 43% 6.9% 28% 1.6%$50,000-74,999 33% 2.8% 28.5% 1.1%$75,000 & above 34% 2.9% 29% 1.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, Criminal Victimization, Annual; and Criminal Victimization 1998, Changes 1997-98 With Trends 1993-98, Series NCJ-176353 (Revised 25 August 1999).
Dr. S
hahra
m
Yazd
ani
47
Per capita values Iran Middle East & North Africa
Lower middle income countries
Oil producing countries
Population (millions) 70 242 2198 536
Total Wealth 33324 29405 22082 45413
Intangible Capital 1505 8215 9444 3363
Produced Capital 10516 7107 5885 11217
Natural Capital – of which: 24313 14083 6754 30833
Oil 17088 8099 1476 19305
Natural Gas 4213 3292 567 5880
Coal 11 3 453 239
Minerals 91 53 142 333
Crop 1481 1452 2628 1358
Pasture Land 1042 840 443 852
Forest – Timber 27 95 497 266
Forest – NTFP 93 57 196 1077
Protected Areas 267 190 353 1523
Shares of total wealth
Natural Capital (%) 73% 48% 31% 68%
Produced Capital (%) 32% 24% 27% 25%
Intangible Capital (%) -5% 28% 43% 7%
Iran: Wealth estimates ($ per capita)