Dr W.Zhang, D/OBS 1

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

WMO Integrated Global Observing System

WIGOS

www.wmo.int

WMO

Global Societal Needs

• Improved protection of life, and property (related to impacts of hazardous weather, climate, water and other environmental events and increased safety of circulation and transport on land, at sea and in the air)

• Poverty alleviation, sustained livelihoods and economic growth (in connection with the Millennium Development Goals) including improved health and social well-being of citizens (related to weather, climate, water and environmental events and influence)

• Sustainable use of natural resources and improved environmental quality

Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate

Intensity

Frequency

Heatwaves

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Tropical Cyclones

Coastal Marine Hazards

Strong Wind

Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement

HealthHealth IndustryIndustry

Food Food securitysecurity

TransportTransport

EnergyEnergy

Urban areasUrban areas

Hazards’ intensityand frequencyare increasing

Exposure is increasing !

Need fordisaster riskmanagement

Risk levels: Top 30%:Red; Middle 30%:yellow; Lowest 40%: Blue:

Global Hotspot study (World Bank with ProVention Consortium)

35 countries have more than 5% pop in areas at risk from three or more hazards96 countries have more than 10% pop in areas at risk from two or more hazards160 countries have more than 25% pop in areas at risk from one or more hazards

Global ChallengesAs society becomes more complex we become more

sensitive to natural and human induced variability.

NMHS Operational servicePressing Requirements

• Current– Severe Weather DRR– Monthly to seasonal Prediction – …

• Future– Climate Services– Environmental Services– Water issues– Sustainable development– ……

A Seamless Prediction Framework

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

PredictioPredictionn

Applications

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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

Initial Conditions

Boundary Conditions

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Weeks

Months

Seasons

Years

Weather

Climate Variability

Scenarios

Anthropogenic Forcing

Climate Change.

Adapted from: NOAA

Decades

Centuries

Studying Earth as a Complex System

CirculationSurface WindsPrecipitation

Reflection and TransmissionSurface Temperature

EvaporationCurrents

Upwelling

CirculationSurface WindsPrecipitation

Reflection and TransmissionSurface Temperature

EvaporationCurrents

Upwelling

InfiltrationRunoff

Nutrient LoadingSurface Temperature

Currents

InfiltrationRunoff

Nutrient LoadingSurface Temperature

Currents

Surface WindsPrecipitation

Reflection and TransmissionEvaporation

TranspirationSurface Temperature

Surface WindsPrecipitation

Reflection and TransmissionEvaporation

TranspirationSurface Temperature

Land

Ocean

Atmosphere

Mid-1970s

Atmosphere

Mid-1980s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Early 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

Late 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Present Day

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

Early 2000s?

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

DynamicVegetation

AtmosphericChemistry

Weather

Climate Change

ClimateVariability

Overview of Weather and Climate Models and the Required Observations

Need an Integrated Global Observing

System Going Beyond the WWW

To improve service deliveryNeed more observations and data

• WIGOS will pave the way for better future observing systems development.

• What are the priorities– Atmosphere– Oceans– Land surfaces – Polars and Cryosphere– External and internal forces (Sun, GHGs, etc)

• Strategy– Steady increase of WMO Mandated observing

capabilities in both Space and Surface components-GOS Vision 2025

– Enhanced international partnerships

Some Key instruments

• Satellite Major Sounding and imaging instruments

• Weather Radars

• In situ Climate Observation instruments (Radiosonde for GRUAN, GAW, etc)

• In situ weather observing instruments (AWS, lightning, GPS, Profiler)

Cg-XV (2007)

• Resolution 30 (Cg-XV) - Towards Enhanced Integration between the WMO Observing Systems:

Establishing a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of observing systems, ensuring interoperability between its component systems:

WMO Integrated Global Observing System WIGOS

From Observations to Consequences

Understanding

Models

Predictions

ConsequencesValidation

Assimilation Initialization

Monitoring

Analysis

Observations

The availability of new observations strongly motivates advances in understanding, prediction, and application.

Surface observation network

Upper air observation network

87%

Total in situ networks March 200961%

66%

81%

59%79%48%54%

Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate Status against the GCOS Implementation Plan and JCOMM targets

100%

100%

MilestonesDrifters 2005

Argo 2007

Status of the System8055 Platforms reporting in February

M eteo -0 1-3

F IG U R E 1 -3

C o n stella t io n o f m eteoro log ica l sa tellite s of W M O G lo ba l O b serv in g S y stem (sta tu s 2 00 8 )Space-based observing system

Future of Global Earth ObservationsTechnical Innovation

GOES-I/P Instruments GOES-R Baseline

Data Rate: 2.11 Mbps Daily Rate: 132.0 Mbps

Daily Output: 181 Gb Daily Output: 16,000 Gb

5-Order Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over 10 Years

Year

Count

(Mill

ions)

Daily Upper Air Observation Count

Year

Satellite Instruments by Platform

Count

NPOESSMETEOPNOAA

WindsatGOESDMSP

1990 201020001990 2010 2010-250chYear

2002

• Major contributions from:– More observed data, especially satellite data– Improved physical processes– More powerful computers

NWP continued improvementN. Hemisphere

• Ops 1980 introduced satellites data, since then continuously improvement。

G.A.Kelly (ECMWF)

NWP continued improvement

From G.A.M. Kelly talk on ECMWF Forecast Improvements (September, 2003)

Southen Hemisphere

3.5 days

Convergence of N.Hem and S.Hem Medium

Range Forecast skill 1981 – 2004

User Community

OPERA:Observation and Prediction of the Earth environment for

Real Applications

• Advanced Sensors• Sensor Web• Information

Synthesis• Access to

Knowledge

InformationInformation

•Partners•NOAA•DOD•FEMA•USGS•DHS•Other

Govt•Commerci

al•Internatio

nal

Weather Forecast User-oriented System Including Object Nowcasting

POLDIRADsurface observations

cloud trackerradar tracker

lightning

User-specifiedTarget WeatherObject

TWO

SYNPOLRADlocal forecast

ensembleforecast

SYNRAD

SYNSATobject

comparison

forecast validationforecast validation

FusionTracking Nowcast (0 -1 hrs)Forecast (1 - 6 hrs)

TWO

Setting the WMO Foundation : WIGOS in the Next Decade

• The extraordinary WMO foundation of global observations is at great challenge if it is not adequately prepared to meet society’s rapidly evolving Earth information needs.

• WIGOS will set the WMO Foundation in the Next Decade for sustained development.