dr. xue li iwep/cass. aim to achieve a regional power with global influence into a comprehensive...
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How does OBOR Strategy Facilitate Sino-ASEAN Ties?
Dr. Xue Li IWEP/CASS
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Aim to achieve
a regional power with global influence into a comprehensive global power, OR realization of China’s renaissance ( China’s Dream in president Xi’s word)
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How to do?Domestic dimension: (1)ideology:pay more attention to marxism;(2) organization: strengthen CPC authority
and solidarity;(3)culture:traditional Chinese culture;(4)economy: Yangzi River economic belt and
Jing-Jin-Ji collaborative development as two main engines; industries upgrading; New Normal, 6.5% until 2020;
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Foreign dimensionRelocate China: from East Asia Country to
central country of Asia and the main power at the east part of the Eurasia continent
Adjust foreign policy: from humble policy(韬光养晦 ) to struggling for achievements(奋发有为 )
Top design for the dimension: OBOR strategy;
point: the USA; routes:6+2; area: Eurasia continent
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China’s geographic location
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Capability and demand for oborCapability:(1)Advantages in technology and manufacturing
industry;(2)Overcapacity in production: RMB 4 trillion
economy stimulating plan in 2008;(3)Foreign currency reserve: USD3.96 trillionDemand: (1)desire to development of the surrounding
countries;(2)China’s obligation to help SR countries;(3)China needs friends and markets
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The way to carry out OBOREconomic cooperation is the Main Approach:(1)6 econmic corridors:BCIM, CPEC, CMR, NAELB,C-
CEPEC,C-CA-WAEC(2), 2 maritime routes: China-SCS-MS-IO-
ME,EA,MEDITERRANEAN, China-SCS-South Pacific countries
Measures to guarantee:(1) Trade aspect: bilateral/multilateral FTA, upgrading
Sino-ASEAN FTA, Sino-ASEAN Cooperation Fund, RCEP, FTAAP
(2) Financial institutions: Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Silk Road Fund, New Development Bank of BRICS, and planning SCO Development Bank
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Six economic corridors?
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Two MSR routes?
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Other ways to cooperationPolitics and Security :(1) Regional Collective Security: CICA--
Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, M-26,O-13
(2)South China Sea Dispute:is China going to make compromise? It depends on ASEAN’s position on OBOR
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ASEAN’S position in oborOne economic corridor; two Maritime Silk Road
routes; main platform for multilateral cooperation in economic, cultural,political, security and military fields
Cooperation with ASEAN: Core interest for China?
Function as a quasi–core interest with options
Why?
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Category of National InterestsLayers Importance to
CountryAnalogy to Body
Core Interest key to the country’s survival
Brain/Heart
Important Interest issues have significant influence to the nation’s development
Arm/Leg
General Interest impacts on development or some functions
Finger/Toe
Secondary Interest issues have little influence to the whole state
Nail/Hair
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China’s perspectiveOBOR: close to core interest for Xi Administration; One belt
—the peninsula; two roads—through SCS; ASEAN—the hub for two roads.
SCS dispute: close to important interest while Cooperation with ASEAN function as a quasi–core interest with options
Policy choice: emphasize on enlarging cooperation and common interest; diminish the impact from SCS dispute. It is necessary for Chine to make some compromise in SCS issue.
Evidence? Suzhou Conference, Dural track approach, five commitments
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Dural track approachAnnounced by foreign minister Wang Yi at
Naypyidaw,Myanmar, in August 10, 2014
relevant disputes should be addressed by countries directly concerned through friendly consultations and negotiation in a peaceful way.
peace and stability in the South China Sea being jointly maintained by China and ASEAN countries.
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Five commitments by Wang yi in August 3, Singapore(1) maintaining peace and stability in the
South China Sea(2) peacefully solving disputes through
negotiation and consultation(3) controlling differences through rules and
regulations.-ASEAN(especially claimants)(4) maintaining freedom of navigation and
overflight in the area(5) gaining mutual benefits through
cooperation.-China
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ASEAN Claimant’s choicesConfrontation: bypassed
Vision and action in March, 2015, in which emphasizes cooperation through(1) consulting,co-constructing and sharing坚持共商共建共享
(2)help bridge the development plans between the silk road countries. 积极推进沿线国家发展战略的相互对接。
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How to view Land reclamation?NO.1: The first step for further action:
ADIZ, EEZ, military deployment, Oil and Gas development,——what consequences?
NO. 2: to have appropriate presence in Spratly Islands in right time, which will be based for settlement , compromise,cooperation,etc.——better than NO. 1?
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implicationGenerally speaking, the ball is on ASEAN
claimants’ side, especially those who are inclined to confront.
China needs to behave more positively ,and more actively responds to other claimants on issues such COC,
Potential fields to cooperation: Ocean Park, Bi&Multi fishery agreement, joint fishing ban,joint military exercise, etc
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THE ENDPPT For “Maritime Silk Road and
International Relations in The South China Sea: Present Situation and Prospects”
Hilton Hotel, Hanoi, VietnamNovember, 26, 2015Question is welcome.