draft strategy 2-6-09 revised 3-10-09 rmp modeling strategy john oram jay davis
TRANSCRIPT
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
RMP Modeling StrategyRMP Modeling Strategy
John Oram
Jay Davis
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
IntentIntent
• To develop a capacity to predict the effect of different management alternatives on – loads from watersheds,
– the recovery of contaminated areas on the Bay margin,
– the recovery of the Bay as a whole
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
ApproachApproach
• To develop conceptual and numeric models of the physical, chemical, and biological processes governing the fate of water, sediment, and pollutants of concern in San Francisco Bay and its associated watersheds
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Question 1 : Bay MarginsQuestion 1 : Bay Margins
• What is the contribution of contaminated Bay margins to impairment in the Bay and what are the projected impacts of management actions to the Bay's recovery?
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Question 2 : Bay RecoveryQuestion 2 : Bay Recovery
• What patterns of exposure are forecast for major segments of the Bay under various management scenarios?
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Question 3 : Small Tributary LoadsQuestion 3 : Small Tributary Loads
• What are the projected impacts of management actions on loads or concentrations of pollutants of concern from the high-leverage small tributaries?
• Where should management actions be implemented in the region to have the greatest impact?
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : CoordinationStrategy : Coordination
• Establish a Bay Area Modeling Forum that will– guide agencies and NGOs in the selection, use, and
interpretation of models for describing sediment-water relationships in fluvial and tidal systems
– improve communication and coordination of local modelers and stakeholders
– reduce duplication of efforts
– improve the overall quality of modeling products
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
• Develop a flexible grid model capable of implicitly allowing for the interaction of fine-scale processes occurring at the Bay Margins with the larger-scale processes of the Bay proper
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
• What is a flexible grid anyway?– An approach to allow increased resolution in areas of concern
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
# cells 44,148
cell size Curvilinear 50 m to 1.3 km
dt (min) 1.0 - 0.1
Curvilinear Grid
Delft3d grid from P. Barnard (USGS)
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
SUNTANS grid of Puget Sound
Unstructured Grid
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model• Some Model Options
– Multibox• + Good for hypothesis testing• - Limited spatial/temporal resolution• - Limited ability to calibrate/validate• - Limited sediment capabilites
– 3D Commercial : Delft3D, Mike, TRIM, UnTRIM• - Licensing can be costly• + Set-up often less complex than open-source• + ‘Package Deal’ - includes pre- and post-processing software• + Technical support is available• - ‘Black Box’
– 3D Open-Source : ROMS, SUNTANS, …• + Freely available• +/- State-of-the-art• +/- Community Support• - Set-up can be challenging• +/- Time is largest expense
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
• What is SUNTANS?– Stanford Unstructured Nonhydrostatic Terrain-
following Adaptive Navier-Stokes Simulator
– ‘Next generation’ of coastal models
– Co-developed in SF Bay by Stanford and UC Berkeley
– Open-Source
– Includes water, sediment, contaminant capabilities
– Accounts for tidal wetting/drying
– Ocean boundary condition can be driven by ROMS
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Strategy : Local WatershedsStrategy : Local Watersheds
• Develop models of key watersheds over the next three years with the goal of developing a regional model (or set of models)
• Watersheds will be identified by SPLWG and Small Tributaries Strategy Team– These groups will provide project oversight as well.
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Task Questions 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bay & Margins Modeling
Margins Conceptual Model 1 $40,000
South Bay Hydrodynamic Model 1,2 $30,000a
Include Sediment Transport in South Bay Model 1,2 $75,000
Fieldwork to support South Bay Hotspot / Tributary Modeling
1,2 $50,000
Hotspots and Tributary modeling in South Bay (Water, Sediment, Contaminant, Biota)
1 $100,000
Extend Model to Larger Bay (Water and Sediment) 1,2 $100,000
Add Contaminants and Biota to Larger Bay Model 1,2 $140,000
Watershed Modeling
Guadalupe Watershed Model 3 $75,000 $75,000
Second Watershed Model (South Bay) 3 $75,000
Third Watershed Model (North Bay) 3 $75,000
Large Scale Watershed Model 3 $100,000
Coordination
Bay Area Modeling Forum 1,2,3 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000
Total $75,000 $150,000 $205,000 $180,000 $205,000 $145,000
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Model ProposalModel Proposal
• What: Development of a highly-resolved three-dimensional model of South Bay
• Who: Mark Stacey (UCB), Rusty Holleman (UCB), Ed Gross (Consultant), John Oram (SFEI)
• Why: Project would provide support for a UCB graduate student to continue development of South Bay model and would help insure that development is relevant to RMP objectives.
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Draft Strategy 2-6-09Revised 3-10-09
Model ProposalModel Proposal
• Specifics: Aim is to develop flexible grid of South Bay with emphasis on 1 or 2 tributaries (e.g., Guadalupe) and a Bay margin site (e.g., San Leandro Bay). Model will be useful for answering questions related to flushing times and exchange processes (e.g., what is influence of margin on Bay?).
• Budget:Stacey and Holleman UCB $35k
Ed Gross Consultant $5k
RMP Staff $4k