drilling data - thn - 20120703 · title: microsoft powerpoint - drilling data - thn - 20120703...
TRANSCRIPT
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Geothermal DrillingGeothermal Drilling
Tom Harding-NewmanEnergy Specialist
July 2012
An analysis of global data
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Agenda
• Background / context
• Defining success
• Highlights
� Success
� Capacity
• Factors affecting success and capacity
• Conclusions
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Disclaimer
• The data presented here is based on a preliminary analysis
• Conclusions still need to be checked, verified, and peer-reviewed
• Do not quote or cite any findings• Do not quote or cite any findings
• This presentation does not claim to serve as an exhaustive presentation of the
issues it discusses and should not be used as a basis for making commercial
decisions
• Please contact me for further information and to receive the final version when
completed� [email protected]
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Background
• The ability to accurately estimate drilling success rates increases confidence in
a geothermal project� Helps to quantify the expected risk
� Supports resource modeling assumptions
� Improves access to financial support
• Previously, there has been little historical record that can be used to justify
forecasted success rates� Well data is often confidential, proprietary information
� No central database
� Local databases may be incomplete, giving an inaccurate picture
• We’d like to quantify the drilling risk, and assess what factors affect the risk
and by how much
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A summary of available data
• The database covers:
� 14 countries
� 57 fields
� 2,613 wells, thought to represent ~70% of all commercial wells drilled around the world
• 7,700MW installed in the fields in the database, compared with 10,700MW installed worldwide• 7,700MW installed in the fields in the database, compared with 10,700MW installed worldwide
• Categories of data include
� Completion date
� Well status
� MW capacity of wells
� Depth
� Resource type
� Geology type
� Production casing size
� Pumped and re-drilled status
5
Data compiled by GeothermEx
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Quantifying geology and resource types
Geology type
Code Description
1Granitic / higher-grade metamorphic
Tertiary and older volcanic/volcaniclastic -
Resource type - enthalpy
Code Description Temperature
1 Non-electric <100oC
2 Very low temp. 100oC to 150oC
3 Low temp. 150oC to 190oC
We have attempted to categorize the geology and resource characteristics of the geothermal fields so that we may assess the impact on success rates
2volcanic/volcaniclastic - large-scale volcanic structures absent
3Younger volcanic/volcaniclastic - large-scale volcanic structures (volcanoes, calderas) preserved
4Sedimentary Basin - clastic, drilled above basement
5Sedimentary Basin - clastic, wells drilled into basement
3 Low temp. 150oC to 190oC
4 Moderate temp. 190oC to 230oC
5 High temp. 230oC to 300oC
6 Ultra high temp. 300oC +
7 Steam field 230oC to 240oC
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How to define success?
• There is no recognized basis for defining drilling success
• Any well that is drilled but isn’t used is unsuccessful, but what about partial
success?� Completely dry holes are rare
� Wells with low productivity may be pumped, re-drilled, or used for injection or observation
� Wells’ output may deteriorate over time, in which case, was it initially successful?
• Ultimately, success depends on the ROI of each well� Factors in cost of well and economics of power plant
� Hard to calculate on a well-by-well basis
� Availability of data
� MW output per $ of drilling cost may be simpler
• A simple MW threshold has been used in this analysis, where other data isn’t
available� Statuses of 12% of wells in database are unknown
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Phases of a project
• As a project develops, understanding
of the reservoir improves
• This aids in targeting of wells and
should improve the success rate
• A project can be split in to different 70%
80%
90%
100%
Cumulative average success
Success in Kamojang field, Indonesia
Exploration
Development Operation
• A project can be split in to different
stages:� Exploration
• Early stage drilling to establish reservoir characteristics
� Development• Drilling to reach planned capacity output
� Operation• Drilling to replace lost capacity
• Length of each stage will vary
between projects
8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49
Cumulative average success
Well number
Exploration
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Highlights
Stage Well numbers
Success rate
MW Capacity % re-drilledMode Average
Exploration <=5 59% 4 6.0 15%
Development >5,<=30 74% 2-5 7.3 14%
Operation >30 83% 3 7.5 18%Operation >30 83% 3 7.5 18%
OVERALL All 78% 3 7.3 16%
9
• Success rate improves as the project progresses (learning curve)
• Capacity of wells does not significantly improve beyond the exploration
phase
• Re-drilling is equally common in each phase
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Success
10
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Evidence for the “learning curve” effect
• It is expected that well drilling
becomes more successful with more
wells drilled in a field� Each well drilled helps to refine
knowledge of the size and location of the resource
y = 0.07ln(x) + 0.4860%
70%
80%
Cumulative average drilling success
resource
• The available data supports this
theory� Success on the first well appears to be
about 50:50, on average
� Cumulative success rate rises rapidly in the first few wells
� The cumulative success rate continues to rise as later wells are consistently more successful
11
y = 0.07ln(x) + 0.48R² = 0.99
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931333537394143454749
Average success
Well sequence number
Exploration
Development Operation
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Variations in success
• Developers and financers are not
just interested in absolute risk, but
also the risk variability
• The database suggests that most 10
12
14
Number of fields
Variation in success by field
• The database suggests that most
fields have an overall success rate of
over 50%, and 80-90% is the most
common� Implies new projects should expect
success rates above 50% but could be significantly higher
12
0
2
4
6
8
<=30% >30%<=40%
>40%<=50%
>50%<=60%
>60%<=70%
>70%<=80%
>80%<=90%
>90%<=100%
Number of fields
Success range
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Variations in success by phase
• There is a wide range of success
rates seen in the Exploration phase
=> no real way of assessing likely
success rate
40%
45%
50%
Variation in success by development stage
Exploration
• Success in the Development phase is
most frequently around 60-70%,
though also commonly above this
• Success in the Operations phase is
higher, normally 90-100%
13
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
>=0%<=10%
>10%<=20%
>20%<=30%
>30%<=40%
>40%<=50%
>50%<=60%
>60%<=70%
>70%<=80%
>80%<=90%
>90%<=100%
% of fields
Success range
Development
Operation
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Improvements over time
• Exploration appears to have become
more successful over the last 50
years� Possibly caused by better exploration
techniques
� NB. Wide variation in success rates in this 80%
100%
Success of wells by decadeExploration
Development
Operation
� NB. Wide variation in success rates in this stage makes averages potentially mis-leading
• No significant changes in success
rates of development wells over
time
• Operation wells appear to have
become less successful� Possibly caused by older fields being fully
exploited
14
0%
20%
40%
60%
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
Success
Decade
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Well capacity
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Distribution of well capacity
• Well capacity follows a positively
skewed distribution� Mode is 3MW
� Average is 7.3MW
� Skew is 1.64120
140
160
Distribution of well capacity
• A wide range of capacities are
possible� Maximum capacity of a single well in the
database is 54MW
16
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
# of wells
Gross Capacity (MW)
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Changes of capacity with project phase
• The distribution of well capacities is
similar in each stage of project
development� Do not expect improvements in capacity
of wells as a project progresses25%
30%
Distribution of well capacity
Exploration
• Exploration has a slightly higher
mode (4MW)
• In Development, 2-5MW are equally
common
17
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
# of wells
Gross Capacity (MW)
Exploration
Development
Operation
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Improvement of capacity in a project
• There is very little improvement in
the capacities of wells as drilling
progresses� No learning curve
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
(MW)
Cumulative average capacity
18
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931333537394143454749
Average capacity (MW)
Well sequence number
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Impact of pumping on well capacity
• Only ~6% of wells are pumped� Pumps can only be used in a narrow
temperature range
• Pumped and non-pumped wells show
similar distributions
30%
35%
% of wells by pump status
Capacity distribution of pumped and non-pumped
wells
similar distributions� Pumped wells have a narrower range of
values
� Frequency of capacity of pumped wells has a strong peak at 3MW
• Due to costs, pumping is only used
where output would otherwise be
marginal or low� Not used to boost productive wells
19
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
% of wells by pump status
Capacity (MW)
Pumped
Non-pumped
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Factors affecting success
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Prevalence of well depths in database
• Wells are drilled at all depths from
100m up to 6km� Normally less than ~3.5km
• Frequency appears to generally rise 20
40
60
80
100
120
# of wells
Well frequency by depth
• Frequency appears to generally rise
up to 2,200m� Clear modes at 1,200m and 2,200m
• Most fields have wells drilled at a
range of depth
21
0
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
2,900
3,100
3,300
3,500
Well depth (m)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Depth (m)
Field
Range of depths by fieldAverage depth
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Impact of depth on capacity and success
• Might expect it to be easier to drill
shallow wells => higher success
• There does not appear to be any
correlation between well depth and 70%
80%
90%
100%
7
8
9
10
Average capacity (MW)
Average capacity and success by depth
success or capacity� Shallow wells not necessarily more
successful or more productive
• However, it is cheaper to drill
shallower wells, so a low
productivity well may be considered
successful if it is shallow/cheap� Cost factor is not picked up in our
definition of success here
22
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
2,900
3,100
3,300
3,500
Success
Average capacity (MW)
Well depth (m)
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Impact of casing size on capacity and success
• Larger casing allows greater flow
rates of fluids� Should allow greater well capacity
• There is no clear trend of increasing
capacity with increasing casing size
70%
80%
90%
100%
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Average capacity (MW)
Frequency and capacity of wells by casing size
• Success is not clearly related to
casing size
• Casings between 200 and 350mm are
the most common
• When designing drilling program,
required capacity does not need to
be considered
23
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
>=0<150
>=150<200
>=200<250
>=250<300
>=300<350
>=350<400
>=400
Success
Average capacity (MW)
Casing size (mm)
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Geology and enthalpy
Average
capacity
(MW)
Geology code
1 2 3 4 5
Re
sou
rce
co
de
1
2 3.6
• Rock formation and enthalpy of the
resource should significantly affect
the productivity
• Expect capacity to increase with
Re
sou
rce
co
de 2 3.6
3 3.4 3.0
4 4.8 6.4 6.7 6.1
5 5.0 5.9 5.4
6 7.6 8.2
7 8.4 6.9
• Expect capacity to increase with
enthalpy� Enthalpy increases with resource code
• Expect rock formations with high
permeability to boost capacity� Especially old volcanic
• Capacity roughly follows
expectations
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Impact of geology on capacity and success
• Granitic rocks tend to have low
porosity/unpredictable permeability
(depending on fractures) and hence
capacity is low
• The cracks present in old rock formations
boost productivity70%
80%
90%
100%
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Average capacity (MW)
Capacity and success by geology
boost productivity� Volcanic rock may be alternate layers of ash and
lava – permeability changes significantly between layers
• Basement rocks have similar permeability
to granitic, if cracks are lacking
• Geology does not appear to affect success
rates� Higher rate for Code 4 due to lower MW
threshold of success for some fields
25
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1 2 3 4 5
Success
Average capacity (MW)
Geology code
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Impact of enthalpy on capacity and success
• Resource code is closely related to
enthalpy� Capacity should increase with enthalpy
• Capacity does generally increase
with resource code, but not strictly70%
80%
90%
100%
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Average capacity (MW)
Capacity and success by resource type
with resource code, but not strictly� Estimations of resource temperature in
the exploration phase will be key in estimating future well capacities
• Maximum capacity of a well does
increase with resource code
• Success appears independent of
resource code
26
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2 3 4 5 6 7
Success
Average capacity (MW)
Resource code
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Impact of re-drilling on capacity and success
• 16% of wells have been re-drilled
• Re-drilling does improve success� 77% of original wells are successful
� 87% of re-drilled wells are successful14
16
18
20
Variation in success rates of original and re-drilled wells
• Re-drilling tends to have almost
100% success, or 0% success,
depending on the field
• Re-drilled wells also tend to have a
higher capacity� 7.2MW for original wells
� 8.1MW for re-drilled wells
27
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
>=0%<=10%
>10%<=20%
>20%<=30%
>30%<=40%
>40%<=50%
>50%<=60%
>60%<=70%
>70%<=80%
>80%<=90%
>90%<=100%
# of fields
Success rate range
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Conclusions
• ROI is the best measure of drilling success, but is often not practical� Drilling cost per MW is easier, but just the MW output is normally used, irrespective of cost
� Assigning low productivity wells as injectors or observation wells complicates things further
• Overall, 78% of wells drilled were successful and the most common capacity is
3MW, though average capacity is 7.3MW� A strong learning curve is seen in success, but not in capacity, as a project progresses
� Success is very unpredictable in the Exploration phase� Success is very unpredictable in the Exploration phase
• Wells can be drilled to almost any depth (<5km is normal), though 2.2km is the
most frequent depth� Most fields have wells drilled to a wide range of depths
� Depth does not impact likely success or capacity
• Enthalpy and geology affect well capacity, but not success
• Re-drilling improves success and capacity
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Accessing the data
• The analysis is still being finalized
� The results presented here are based on a preliminary look at the data
• IFC will be releasing a report based on this data, and the data
itself, to the publicitself, to the public
� Expected to be in the next couple of months
• Please contact me if you would like to be kept up to date on
the release of the report and data
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ANY QUESTIONS?
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ANNEX – Individual fields
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Improvements in success and capacity
7
8
9
10
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cumulative average capacity (MW)
Field 1.1
32
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Cumulative average capacity
Success
Well number
![Page 33: Drilling data - THN - 20120703 · Title: Microsoft PowerPoint - Drilling data - THN - 20120703 Author: THardingnewman Created Date: 20120703164850Z](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051808/600b0160b3d209253115f6fb/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Improvements in success and capacity
7
8
9
10
70%
80%
90%
100%
Gross Capacity (MW)
Field 2.2
33
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Gross Capacity (MW)
Success
Well number
Series1 Series2
![Page 34: Drilling data - THN - 20120703 · Title: Microsoft PowerPoint - Drilling data - THN - 20120703 Author: THardingnewman Created Date: 20120703164850Z](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051808/600b0160b3d209253115f6fb/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Improvements in success and capacity
20
25
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cumulative average capacity (MW)
Field 2.8
34
0
5
10
15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cumulative average capacity
Success
Well number
![Page 35: Drilling data - THN - 20120703 · Title: Microsoft PowerPoint - Drilling data - THN - 20120703 Author: THardingnewman Created Date: 20120703164850Z](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051808/600b0160b3d209253115f6fb/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Improvements in success and capacity
7
8
9
10
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cumulative average capacity (MW)
Field 3.4
35
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Cumulative average capacity
Success
Well number
![Page 36: Drilling data - THN - 20120703 · Title: Microsoft PowerPoint - Drilling data - THN - 20120703 Author: THardingnewman Created Date: 20120703164850Z](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051808/600b0160b3d209253115f6fb/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
16
18
20
80%
90%
100%
Cumulative average capacity (MW)
Field 3.8
36
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Cumulative average capacity
Success
Well number