Drivers for 5G

Alan Hadden

alanhadden

www.haddentelecoms.com

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Amsterdam November 10-11, 2016

Moving towards borderless broadband

Consign to history 2

Global mobile broadband with 3G

MBB began with the introduction of 3G/WCDMA-HSPA

601 commercially launched 3G/HSPA networks in 221 countries 72% launched HSPA+

2.23 billion users (Q2 2016)

40.4 million HSPA subs added in Q2 2016

75% of the world population is covered by 3G/HSPA systems (end 2014 = 65%

3 Source: GSA, Ovum WCIS, Ericsson

3G/HSPA subs forecast to 2020 3G

/HS

PA s

ubsc

riptio

ns: b

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Dec 2020 = 2.9 billion

670 million more than today ! (Q2 2016)  

Source: Ovum

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Over 90% of the world’s population will be covered by 3G/HSPA systems by 2021

Ericsson

Network traffic

Source: GSMA Intelligence

Smartphone usage & video services are driving data consumption

Mid 2015: 3G networks handled 70% of mobile data traffic

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Expanding global MBB footprint with 4G/LTE

October 26, 2016

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Evolution to LTE report

4G MARKET and TECHNOLOGY UPDATE

INTRODUCTION LTE is a global success with 1.453 billion subscriptions by Q2 2016. LTE connects almost 1 in 5 mobile users worldwide (19.5%). New subscriptions signed up during Q2 2016 at an average of 53 million per month. LTE is the fastest developing mobile system technology ever.

LTE is specified by 3GPP as a single global standard for paired and unpaired spectrum users. The vast majority of the standard is the same for FDD & TDD.

GSA’s Evolution to LTE report provides an independent in-depth status view and analysis of the global 4G/LTE, LTE-Advanced and LTE-Advanced Pro market, supported by facts, and confirms the trends. Information is researched and verified by GSA. This report is updated quarterly and referenced widely by industry and across the whole ecosystem. In this report:

Page Introduction 1 - 3 LTE deployments: operators, countries, regions 3 - 91 LTE-Advanced global status 92 - 101 VoLTE, EVS, ViLTE global status 102 - 103 LTE TDD global status 104 LTE1800 global status 105 - 107 APT700 global status 108 - 101 LTE Broadcast / multicast (eMBMS) 108 - 110 LTE-Advanced Pro background 111 LTE deployment commitments, studies, trials 111 – 117 LTE subscriptions / charts 117 LTE user devices ecosystem 118 About GSA, links, LinkedIn groups 119

LTE networks growth globally 2009-2016

Related charts and maps are available together with short topic “Snapshot” reports from www.gsacom.com

LTE Market Status

GSA’s Evolution to LTE report – OCTOBER 2016

771 operators investing in LTE in 195 countries

• 744 operator commitments in 190 countries • 27 pre-commitment trials in 5 more countries

537 commercially launched LTE or LTE-Advanced networks in 170 countries

incl. 80 LTE TDD (TD-LTE) launched in 47 countries

166 launched networks are LTE-Advanced or LTE-Advanced Pro in 76 countries

GSA forecasts 560+ commercially launched LTE networks by end 2016

6,504 LTE user devices announced (GSA – October 10, 2016)

1.453 billion LTE subscriptions globally: Q2 2016

© GSA www.gsacom.com

LTE-Advanced / LTE-Advanced Pro networks

12 operators commercially launched LTE-Advanced Pro networks

158 operators in 72 countries are investing in VoLTE deployments, studies or trials

93 operators launched VoLTE-HD voice in 52 countries

254 operators (47.3%) in 111 countries use 1800 MHz in commercial LTE networks

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Over 50% of the world’s population was covered by LTE systems in 2015. This will exceed 75% by 2021

160 million LTE subs added in Q2 2016

Improving the user experience

166 (31%) launched LTE-Advanced or LTE-Advanced Pro systems

Category 4

Category 6

Category 9

Category 11/12

101-150 Mbps

151-300 Mbps

451-600 Mbps

301-450 Mbps

40% of operators are investing in LTE-Advanced or LTE-Advanced Pro

i.e. studies, trials, or network deployments

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Mobile video traffic is increasingly dominant

Mobile video is forecast to grow by 55% annually through 2021 at which time video will account for 70% of mobile video traffic

© Ericsson

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LTE-Advanced Pro (4.5G)

LTE-Advanced Pro users enables the Gigabit LTE era and new business opportunities •  LTE deployment in unlicensed spectrum •  NB-IoT for LPWA applications •  Extends/enhances CA •  D2D •  Lower latency •  Higher order MIMO •  Advanced antenna features •  Faster speeds: Gigabit MBB •  Mission critical PTT •  and more …. •  Essential bridge from 4G to 5G

3GPP Release 13 & beyond

12 commercially launched

LTE-Advanced Pro networks

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Current 3GPP CIoT solutions

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The Internet of Things

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© Ericsson

IoT includes:

Connected cars Machinery

Utility meters Remote metering

Consumer electronics

From 2018 mobile phones will be surpassed by IoT 16 billion IoT devices forecast by 2021

VR poised for lift off ?

Virtual reality and augmented reality to grow from US$4.5 billion in 2015 to US$105.2

billion in 2020 (BBC Research)

Fixed and mobile operators need to prepare

Headsets (HMDs) being launched in increasing numbers

Questions for operators: How would VR traffic impact my network? Are there new business opportunities I can exploit? Can I participate in the value chain for VR applications? Source: Heavy Reading

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Not only about speed

Industry transformation

Spectrum

Smart Cities / IoT

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Enables the industrial Internet

Opportunities using 5G

Cloudification Big data NFV and SDN Connecting the unconnected Enterprise mobility / digital transformation Addressing the needs of vertical industries Autonomous vehicles

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5G is “the foundation for realising the full potential of the Networked Society“ and is absolutely necessary: q  to address mass-market adoption scale q  To enable many new use cases q  to allow organisations to move into new markets and build new revenue

streams with new business models and use cases

Major 5G research activities under way q  APAC incl. China q  Europe q  USA

5G service launch by 2020

Standards

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3GPP continues to expand the LTE platform to new services, efficiency improvements to meet increasing MBB demand, including LAA, LTE-WiFi interworking, CIoT enhancements, V2X, low latency LTE, eMBMS enhancements … and much more

Work is underway in 3GPP on the 5G system: 1st release by September 2018 (Release 15) for the most urgent subset of commercial needs 2nd release by March 2020 (Release 16)

3GPP

As 5G is an evolution, expect some elements to be commercialised before full 5G systems

Spectrum

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New spectrum is needed for 5G systems

Greatest economies of scale will come if number of different bands used for 5G is kept small

Leading system vendors* favour these bands as a basis for harmonisation on a global or regional basis •  600 MHz, 700 MHz •  3.3–3.4 GHz, 3.4–3.6 GHz, 3.6–3.8 GHz, 3.8–4.2 GHz o 4.4–4.99 GHz •  24.25–29.5 GHz •  29.5–33.4 GHz •  37–43.5 GHz •  66–86 GHz

* Members of the GSA Spectrum Group