TROPICAL ECOSYSTEMS hub

Drivers of change in the Torres Strait region: status and trends

Butler, J.R.A., Bohensky, E., Skewes, T., Maru, Y., Busilacchi, S.,

Rochester, W., Katzfey, J. and Wise, R.M.

Technical Report

Drivers of change in the Torres Strait region: status and trends

Project 11.1 Building Resilient Communities for Torres Strait Futures

Butler, J.R.A.,1 Bohensky, E.,2 Skewes, T.,3 Maru, Y.,4 Busilacchi, S.,2 Rochester, W.,3 Katzfey, J.,5 Wise, R.M.6

1 CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Ecosciences Precinct, Brisbane

2 CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, ATSIP, James Cook University, Townsville 3 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Ecosciences Precinct, Brisbane

4 CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Desert Knowledge Precinct, Alice Springs 5 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Aspendale, Victoria

6 CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Blackmountain, Canberra

December 2014

Supported by the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program

http://www.nerptropical.edu.au/research

ii

iv

Outputs

Outcomes

Impacts

Adaptive co-management

Community stakeholders

Torres Strait stakeholders

Drivers of change

• Population

• Economy

• Climate change

Communities and livelihoods

Ecosystem goods and

services

• Agriculture

• Fisheries

• Freshwater

Biodiversity and ecosystems

• Terrestrial

• Freshwater

• Marine

Adaptation strategies

Government stakeholders

Participatory scenario planning

Cross-scale integration

• Well-being

• Resilience

vi

Driver of change Indicator Regional trend Torres Strait

Islands trend

Western Province

PNG trend

Climate change Annual surface temperature

Annual rainfall

Sea level rise

Economic and social development

Employment, education, health

Human Development Index

Oil, gas and mining NA

Logging and infrastructure NA

Shipping

Population change Population

Island population densities

1

2

3

Outputs

Outcomes

Impacts

Adaptive co-management

Community stakeholders

Torres Strait stakeholders

Drivers of change

• Population

• Economy

• Climate change

Communities and livelihoods

Ecosystem goods and

services

• Agriculture

• Fisheries

• Freshwater

Biodiversity and ecosystems

• Terrestrial

• Freshwater

• Marine

Adaptation strategies

Government stakeholders

Participatory scenario planning

Cross-scale integration

• Well-being

• Resilience

4

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Regional

scenario

planning

Community scenario planning

Climate projection downscaling

Ecosystem services ADWIM modelling

Resilience assessment

Comparison and

evaluation of adaptation

strategies

Adaptive co-management evaluation

8 km projections

ADWIM

Case studies

Adaptation strategies

Adaptation strategies

Resilience assessment

ADWIM

Resilience assessmentDrivers of change

Resilience assessment

Drivers of change

Drivers of change

2014-15

5

6

-- - -

--

7

A2 scenario 2055 2090

Temperature (°C) +1.3 +2.5

Apparent temperature (°C) +2.2 +4.8

Rainfall (%) +3.4 -2.9

Relative humidity (% humidity) +0.5 +0.6

Wind speed (%) -2.2 -3.5

8

9

10

1990 2055 2090

11

12

13

14

15

Employment 2006

Torres Strait Islander People Indigenous Non-Indigenous

Australia

Living in the Torres Strait Indigenous

Region

Balance in Queensland

Balance or all Australia All Australia

% adults (15-64 years) employed 69 51 55 48

% adults (15-64 years) unemployed 8 9

% adults (15-64 years) not in labour force 37 43

% of employed in CDEP 52 Labour force participation rate 72 63 57 76

Unemployment rate 5 12

Income 2006

Torres Strait Islander People Indigenous

Living in the Torres Strait Indigenous

Region

Balance in Queensland

Balance in Australia

All in Australia

Gross weekly household income up to $515 (lowest 2 quintiles) 79% 65% 65% 70%

Gross weekly household income at least $1,078 (highest quintile) 2% 6% 8%

16

Education indicators

Torres Strait Islander People Indigenous

Year

Living in the Torres Strait Indigenous

Region

Queensland Australia All Australia All Australia

% adults (15 years and over) completed year 12 2006 38 35 25 22

% adults (15 years and over) completed year 12 2008 36 22

% adults (15 years and over) non-school qualification 2006 18 15 15 23

% adults (25-64) non-school qualification 2002 33

% adults (25-64) non-school qualification Cert III or higher 2002 19

% adults (25-64) non-school qualification 2008 49

% adults (25-64) non-school qualification Cert III or higher 2008 36

% adults (15 years and over) highest- Bachelor degree 2006 3

17

Education indicators Year

2001 2006

Torres Strait adults (15 years old and over) who completed year 12 or equivalent (%) 27.4 32.2

Torres Strait aged 25-64 with a non-school qualification (%) 21.8 28.5

Torres Strait aged 25-64 with a bachelor degree or higher (%) 3.6 4.7

Disability or long-term health condition

Age group (years) Cases Proportion (%) 15–24 3,367 32.9 25–34 3,615 44.0 35–44 2,839 41.4 45–54 2,508 64.2 55–64 1,656 69.7 65 and over 1,833 92.3

Number Proportion (%)

Age group (years) Excellent/ very

good Good Fair/poor Excellent/ very

good Good Fair/poor 15–34 years 10,375 6,206 1,856 56.3 33.7 10.1 35 years and over 4,327 5,790 5,008 28.6 38.3 33.1 Total 14,702 11,997 6,864 43.8 35.7 20.5

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Proportion (%)

Torres Strait Indigenous Region Balance of Australia

Happy all/most of the time 84.2 70.2 Full of life all/most of the time 75.6 55.6 Calm or peaceful all/most of the time 75.1 54.9 Had a lot of energy all/most of the time 62.3 49.2

Indicator (unit) 1980 2000 2001 2005 Trend PNG (2005)

Life expectancy (years) 46.2 (M) 49.5 (F)

54.0 (M) 54.7 (F)

Fertility rate (births per female) 5.6

Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1000 live births) 92 (M) 73 (F)

68 (M) 64 (F)

Childhood malnutrition (% children < 5 years) 1.3 3.9 1.8

Malaria (% population treated) 47 36 28

Pneumonia (% deaths of children < 5 years) 4.8 2.0

Outreach clinics (per 1,000 children < 5 years) 15.5 23.2

Triple Antigen Immunisation (% children < 1 year) 49 77

19

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 2012/2013

Per

cen

tage

of

ho

use

ho

lds

Daru

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 2012/2013

MabudauanElectricityPiped waterModern house

19

54

179

excellent good fair poor

20

21

.

Indigenous Non- Indigenous

Area HDI HDI Gap

Australia 0.735 0.965 0.230

Torres Strait Indigenous Region 0.736 1.010 0.274

0 0.5 1 1.5

Life expectancy at birth (LE)

Education Index

standard of living

HDI

Australian non-Indigenous

Australia Indigenous

TS region non Indigenous

TS region Indigenous

22

Low HDI

High HDI

Norway (1) 0.943

Western Province PNG (188) 0.260

Torres Strait (73) 0.736

Australia (2) 0.929

Afghanistan (172) 0.398

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Province Development Start End Shareholders Infrastructure References

Existing developments

Ok Tedi Western Copper, gold 1984 2013 to 2022

Ok Tedi Mining PNG Government Inmet Ltd.

Swales 2001; Smith 1990

Porgera Gold 1991 2015 to 2023

Barrick Gold Jackson and Banks 2002; Gilberthorpe and Banks 2011

Kutubu/Gobe Moran Oil 1992 -

Oil Search Ltd. ExxonMobile Merlin PNG Government BP, Chevron

Kumul export terminal Underground pipelines to Kumul

Owen and Latimore 1998

Planned developments

LNG PNG

Southern Highlands; Western

LNG 2014 2042

ExxonMobile Oil Search Ltd. PNG Government Santos Ltd. Nippon Oil Exploration Petromin Mineral Resources Development Company

Gas conditioning plants Underground pipelines to the coast LNG facility near Port Moresby

Dixon et al. 2010; McIlraith 2011

Gulf LNG Gulf LNG 2014 -

InterOil Petromin

Underground pipelines to the coast Floating LNG facility LNG refinery near Port Moresby

Price 2012; InterOil Corporation 2010

LNG consortium Western LNG 2014 -

Horizon Oil Talisman Energy Eaglewood Energy

Underground pipelines to the coast Gas facility in Daru Deep water port in Daru Commercial centre in Oriomo Infrastructure corridor from Kiunga to Nomad and Balimo to the coast in Oriomo

Price 2012; PNGSDP 2009a, 2010

Mt Kare Enga Gold, silver Feasibility study started 2011

-

Indochine Mining Ltd. Due to its position close to the Porgera mine it can replace it in the economic and ecological scenario of local populations once its operations will end

Indochine 2012

Frieda River Sepik Gold, copper Feasibility study started in 2010

-

Xstrata Highlands Pacific

Shareholders envisage replacing the Ok Tedi mine once its operation will end by providing economic benefits, infrastructures, and services to highland communities

Xstrata 2010

Purari River Gulf Hydro-electricity

MoC signed recently -

PNG Energy Development Ltd. OriginEnergy Ltd.

Undersea transmission cable to Daru and then to North Queensland. The project is planned to provide electricity to the area around Daru.

OriginEnergy 2012

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25

Province Forest area Concession

size (ha) Concession Permit holder Details References

Western Wipim Tapila 244,000 1996

Forest Management Services Ltd. (PNG)

WWF is planning to assist in the establishment of a Forest Stewardship Council certified forestry project

WWF 2008; Forest Trends 2006

Western Kiunga to Aimbak Not available

No proper FMA; the project was originally based on a Timber Permit for road construction. In 2003 the project was halted by courts

Concord Pacific (Samling)

Logging road with substantial log export. A review found that the project was in breach of both the National Forest Policy and the Forestry Act

Rogers 2008; Forest Trends 2006

Western Wawoi Guavi 448,300 Timber Permit in 1992 with extension in 2002

Rimbunan Haijau (Malaysia)

A review found faults in the engagement process with landowners, in the application of legal requirements for sustainability, and in the application of a legal process

Rogers 2008; Forest Trends 2006

Western Makapa 301,500 Timber Permit in 1991 and extended in 2003 Innovision Forest Trends 2006

Western East Awin 184,000 Timber Permit in 2003 CS Bos Ltd (Malaysia)

The permit was nullified by courts in 2004 but logging activities have continued Forest Trends 2006

Western Semabo 54,000 The project had not started by 2006 Forest Trends 2006

Gulf Vailala Blocks 2/3 268,000 Timber Permit in 1992 with extension in

2002 Rimbunan Haijau (Malaysia)

Timber Permits were found to be unlawful but logging activities have continued Forest Trends 2006

Gulf Vailala Block 1 113,400 Timber Permit in 1991 with extension in

2003 Rimbunan Haijau (Malaysia) Forest Trends 2006

26

Province Forest area Concession

size (ha) Concession Permit holder Details References

Western Kamula Doso 790,000

1998, declared invalid in 2010. The area is still to be given a concession. There is dispute between the aim for an agroforestry versus a conventional logging project. An earlier carbon trading scheme was ruled out.

Rimbunan Haijau (Malaysia) - proposed

Filer 2012; Filer et al. 2012; Forest Trends 2006

Southern Highlands East Pangia 98,750 In 2001 a Timber Permit was ready to be

signed by landowners Rogers 2008

Western Kiunga to Nomad

Logging road which would become part of the Trans Papua Road. This is being assessed by the PNG Department of Environment and Conservation

Rogers 2008

Southern Highlands Hekiko 199,000

In 2001 a project agreement was nearing completion. The concession has passed from proposed to active.

Rogers 2008; Forest Trends 2006

Gulf Hekiko 196,000 In 2001 a project agreement was concluded but has not progressed.

Yeung Group Ltd. - proposed Rogers 2008;

Forest Trends 2006

Gulf Vailala (Meporo) 79,000 In 2000 the project was in its very early stages.

Rimbunan Haijau (Malaysia) Forest Trends 2006

27

28

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1997

/1998

1998

/1999

1999

/2000

2000

/2001

2001

/2002

2002

/2003

2003

/2004

2004

/2005

2005

/2006

2006

/2007

2007

/2008

2008

/2009

Financial Years

No

. o

f V

oyag

es

No. of Voyages No. of ships Trend in voyages Trend in ships

29

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0–4 5–9

10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74

75 and over

Torres Strait Islander

Non-Indigenous

30

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Pe

rso

ns

Census Year

Population for Torres Strait Outer Islands and Hammond Island

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Bad

u Is

lan

d

Bo

igu

Isla

nd

Eru

b (D

arn

ley)

Isla

nd

Ham

mo

nd

Isl

and

Ho

rn Is

lan

d

Iam

a (Y

am)

Isla

nd

Mab

uia

g Is

lan

d

Me

r (M

urr

ay)

Isla

nd

Saib

ai Is

lan

d

War

rab

er

Isla

nd

York

e Is

lan

d

Ave

, TS

Ou

ter

Isla

nd

s

Annual population growth rate, 2001 - 2012

31

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Pe

rso

ns

Census Year

Population Masig Island

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

7700

7490

10,667

Po

pu

lati

on

Year

Low projection Medium projection High projection

32

Western Province population projections

Year

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popula

tion

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

550000

600000

Census data

Low projection

Medium projection

High projection

33

PNG Treaty Villages and Daru population projections

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popula

tion

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Census data

Low projection

Medium projection

High projection

Daru

34

Island Area (km2) Population (2000) Density (people/km

2)

Badu (Australia) 101.7 879 8.6 Boigu (Australia) 72.8 233 3.2 Dauan (Australia) 3.7 164 44.1 Erub (Australia) 6.0 422 70.3 Yam (Australia) 1.7 357 210.0 Kubin/St. Paul (Australia) 175.4 494 2.8 Mabuiag (Australia) 6.4 292 45.6 Masig (Australia) 1.6 265 165.6 Mer (Australia) 4.3 411 95.6 Poruma (Australia) 0.4 194 521.8 Saibai (Australia) 103.7 539 5.2 Ugar (Australia) 0.4 85 229.3 Warraber (Australia) 0.7 282 402.9 Parama (PNG) 8.0 1,100 137.5 Daru (PNG) 14.1 18,150 1,287.2

35

Driver of change Indicator Regional trend Torres Strait

Islands trend

Western Province

PNG trend

Climate change Annual surface temperature

Annual rainfall

Sea level rise

Economic and social development

Employment, education, health

Human Development Index

Oil, gas and mining NA

Logging and infrastructure NA

Shipping

Population change Population

Island population densities

36

37

38

39