driving growth in challenging times
DESCRIPTION
Driving growth in challenging times. Todd Hale SVP, Consumer & Shopper Insights May 2, 2014. Panel members. Barry Calpino Kraft Foods, VP of Breakthrough Innovations Dave Deacon PepsiCo, Director of Performance Insights - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Todd HaleSVP, Consumer & Shopper InsightsMay 2, 2014
DRIVING GROWTH IN CHALLENGING TIMES
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
2
PANEL MEMBERS
• Barry CalpinoKraft Foods, VP of Breakthrough Innovations
• Dave DeaconPepsiCo, Director of Performance Insights
• Christian ThompsonKellogg’s, Senior Director of Shopper Insights
GROWTH CHALLENGES
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
4
INFLATION SUBSIDES, BUT UNITS REMAIN SOFT
Source: Total U.S. All Outlets Combined (plus Convenience), All Departments, All Brands (UPC), % Change, 52 week periods vs. year ago
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 52 w/e 03/15/2014
$698,622,107,361
$713,847,575,906
$740,149,846,801
$759,794,372,855
$771,160,987,149
$774,505,094,962
244,590,449,475
248,138,265,939
250,002,998,385
249,980,015,395
250,912,427,784
251,457,342,854
Dollar Sales Unit Volume
Billi
ons
All Departments
Dollar Trend +2 +4 +3 +1 +1
Unit Trend +1 +1 -0 +0 +0
Average U Price Trend +1 +3 +3 +1 +1
Any Promo U Trend +2 -0 -2 +0 +1
Shouldn’t an economic recovery be delivering more growth?
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
5
CONSUMERS SHIFTING SPEND OR BUYING LESS
Source: Nielsen Scantrack, Total U.S. – All Outlets Combined (plus Convenience), 52 weeks ending 03/15/2014 (vs. year ago), UPC-coded
Fresh MeatFresh ProduceAlcoholic Bevs
DeliDry Grocery
DairyPackaged Meat
Non-Food GroceryHBA
Frozen FoodsGeneral MerchTotal All Depts
124
32
0000
-1-1
-30
All Outlets Combined (plus Convenience) – Unit Trend
Shouldn’t an economic recovery be delivering more unit growth?
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
6
Units
“DEATH BY A 1,000 CUTS”
Aging population Delayed family starts
Smaller households
Multicultural infants Immigration
Job market Payroll taxes Income squeeze Food stamps Gas prices
Weather impactHigher
prices/reduced promotions
Alternative channels
Away-from-home consumption Prepared meals
Consumption patterns DIY movement
CONSUMER & SHOPPER INSIGHTS
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
8
CONSUMER & SHOPPER INSIGHTS
1. How is your organization leveraging consumer & shopper understanding to drive growth today & in the future?
2. Our economic recovery is not equal for all shoppers & consumers. How attuned is your organization to this fact & how do you leverage consumer & shopper insights to align your sales, merchandising, & promotional efforts to win spending at the economic extremes?
Panel Questions
PRICE, VALUE & INNOVATION
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
10
HOW LOW IS “LOW”?
Source: Company websites
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
11
WALMART ROLLS OUT ONLINE SAVINGS TOOL
Source: Walmart (https://savingscatcher.walmart.com/)
12Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
CONSUMERS WILL PAY MORE IF THE BENEFITS OUTWEIGH THE PRICE
Sources: MultiAd Kwikee, Target (k-cups) & company websites
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
13
PRICE, VALUE & INNOVATION
1. Are you bringing greater value to income-challenged shoppers through your promotions or through product innovation?
2. How do we bring breakthrough innovation to center-store categories & how do we manage those where consumer demand or category relevance in waning?
Panel Questions
E-COMMERCE
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
15
Apparel
Department
Mass
Liquor
Auto
Toy
Drug
Convenience/Gas
Sporting Goods
Discount Dept
E-Commerce
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
E-COMMERCE THE BIG WINNERCAGR 2013 to 2018
Source: Nielsen TDLinx & Nielsen Analytics
Winning Share
Average Growth
Losing Share
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
16
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
-10010203040
Retail E-Commerce Sales% of Total Retail SalesRetail E-Commerce Sales % Change vs. Year Ago
Percent
E-COMMERCE COMING TO CPG, BUT @ WHAT SPEED
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; company reports & websites
E-Commerce steadily gaining share
Amazon
$13.4
Walmart
$7.5
Kroger
$1.6
Amazon sales growth very impressiveGlobal annual sales growth versus prior year (in billions)
Step on the gas! Who can get there faster?AmazonFresh launches in Los Angeles
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
17
“THE NEW WAY TO SHOP FROM HOME”
https://fresh.amazon.com/dash
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
18
AMAZON DEBUTS PRIME PANTRYBut will Amazon Prime members be willing to pay $5.99 per box?
Source: Amazon.com
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
19
PEAPOD EXPANDS NUMBER OF PICK UP LOCATIONS“Ahold has a company-wide target to triple its online food sales by 2016”
Source: Ahold; Peapod; Crain’s Chicago Business, Chicago Tribune
Peapod also has bulked up its physical presence, adding 120 pickup locations on the East Coast, where New York-based Fresh Direct LLC leads, and five in the Chicago area since August 2012. On the East Coast…customers can pick up orders at Stop & Shop and Giant grocery stores. [In the Chicago area], customers can visit locations in Palatine, Deerfield, Lincolnshire, Schaumburg and Arlington Heights in repurposed bank branches or fast-food restaurants.
Crain’s Chicago BusinessJan. 20, 2014
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
20
HARRIS TEETER DEBUTS ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION$99.95 for the entire year, no limit to number of orders placed; curbside pick up
Source: Harris Teeter
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
21
E-COMMERCE
1. Do you see e-commerce having a positive or negative impact in your categories?
2. How should brick & mortar retailers look to get engaged in e-commerce?
a) Pure-play model?
b) Click & collect?
c) ????
Panel Questions
Copy
right
©20
14 T
he N
ielse
n Co
mpa
ny. C
onfid
entia
l and
pro
prie
tary
.
23
STAY CONNECTED
http://www.nielsen.com
[email protected] http://www.linkedin.com/pub/todd-hale/a/353/613
@ToddHaleNielsen