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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Predicting the Future by Understanding Current and Past Students TASFAA April 2014

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Objective Importance of data analysis on YOUR campus and how it links to greater retention, improved graduation rates and enhanced repayment. 2 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity What is analytics?

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Analytics is the use of data, statistical analysis, and explanatory predictive models to gain insights and to act on complex issues. 4 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Current Environment 5

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity 1 in every 4 students leaves college 6 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity of freshmen drop out 7 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity $13.3 Million Lost to Attrition 8 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity $6.2 billion in state appropriated funds 9 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity State allocations changing -- supporting graduation 10 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Sound business principles emphasize higher education institutions much focus on retaining students to generate an acceptable rate of return to maintain financial viability. 11 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity The Starting Point Analytics 12

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Introducing 13 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia. TomAnd, Molly

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Analytics: Provide evaluation of data to determine patterns Helps mine and connect vast amounts of information Are being used a schools nation-wide Offer a predictive view of upcoming challenges Make available a means to target available resources What you should know about analytics 14 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Importance of data analysis on YOUR campus and how it links to greater retention, improved graduation rates and enhanced repayment. Objective 15 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Data is used to identify trends to improve student success 16

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Four Step Process 17 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia. Step 1 Build Data Warehouse Step 2 Define Research Questions Step 3 Modeling & Reports Step 4 Tracking

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity The process starts with organizing your student data STEP 1: Building a Data Warehouse of Student Information 18 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Turn raw data into meaningful information STEP 2: Define Your Research Project and Analyze Data 19 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity What has been the impact of various recruiting strategies and/or policies on bringing students to campus? What are the best high schools, counties and states to target for producing graduates? What characteristics make up our recruiting efficiency profile? Where did students go who were admitted but did not matriculate? Which strategies have produced the most enrollees and graduates? What has happened to the "Trustee Admits"? How much does your institution spend in institutional aid to produce a successful graduate? How much is wasted on dropouts? What are the characteristics of successful graduates versus dropouts? What high school GPA and ACT levels does it really take to be successful at your institution? Which is more important? Which majors produce the most graduates? Your schools data can help you answer important questions 20 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Custom reports that provide detail and analytics to make strategic decisions STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling 21 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling 22 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia. Inceptia examples: Financial Aid Statistical Reports

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling 23 2013 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia. Inceptia examples: Enrollment Management Reports

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Predictive modeling uses past information to help predict the future Rank students by degree of risk and identify risk factors for each student early intervention is key Effectively use your resources to ensure the greatest results with students STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling 24 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling 25 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia. Inceptia examples: Student Success Profile

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Effective research and analytics is not one and done STEP 4: Ongoing Analysis to Measure Success 26 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Building a Culture of Inquiry 27

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Affordability Expenses of staff, training and tools Re-directing current resources Accountability requirements mean IR is focused on reporting Data Data quality, data ownership, data access and data standardization Roadblocks 28 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Map out strategy and planning Look for an early win Invest in people over tools Dont wait for perfection Partnerships and communication are key Plan for an infrastructure that supports analytics Benchmark to provide context Creating Success 29 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Default Prevention: Enhanced Data Studies 30

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity What Do We Do? We Dont Dont get lost in everyone elses assumptions Dont guess Dont rationalize Dont pretend default is going away Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 31

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity What We Can Do Is Establish The Facts!! Examine the Past Study the Present Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 32

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Borrower Data Sources Loan Record Detail ReportSchool Portfolio Report Available by request or scheduled in NSLDS Contains data about borrowers from both Direct Loans and FFEL Includes more data fields than LRDR 2 Extract formats available Contains data for 6 years Available with CDR package in both cycles Contains data about borrowers from both Direct Loans and FFEL Historical data Extract & Report format May be ordered as a file in NSLDS Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 33

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Default Aversion Options Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 34

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Loan Record Detail Report Student identifiers Loan info: Status, Claim reason code if in default and CDR default date, when the loan went into repayment, beginning and ending dates of loan period, type, guarantor and amount of the loan Enrollment reporting info: Last reported status for the borrower and date of the reported status Usage code for CDR: Denominator, numerator, eligible not counted, neither Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 35

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Examine the Past Study the Present Look to the Future School Portfolio Report Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 36 Borrower Data

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity School Portfolio Data (SPR) Student identifiers Loan info: Status, Claim reason code if in default and CDR default date, when the loan went into repayment, beginning and ending dates of loan period, type, guarantor and amount of the loan Enrollment reporting info: Last reported status for the borrower and date of the reported status; academic level Expanded lender, servicer, and guarantor data including original and current Interest rate Repayment plan Principal & Interest R2T4, if applicable Delinquency Deferment & Forbearance Rehabilitation Consolidation PLUS Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 37

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Using The Data Examine the Past Study the Present Look to the Future Plan based on Facts Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 38

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Making Plans for Future Cohorts Delinquency Repayment Plans Consolidation Rehabilitation Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 39

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Enhanced Default Prevention Data Studies Establishes your Patterns and Trends Needs Consistent Reviewing Points the Direction for Default Prevention Strategies Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 40

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Questions 41

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Paul Mittelhammer VP Business Development National Strategy 404-929-0251 paulm@inceptia.org Inceptia.org 42

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Cherry D. Johnson TSAC Default Aversion Field Representative 731-607-9564 cherry.johnson@tn.gov tn.gov/tsac 43

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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Thank you! 44