drought project

Development of Decision Support System for Drought Monitoring in Sindh

Rao Muhammad Zahid KhalilInstitute of Space Technology

[email protected]

Team Members

• Principal Investigator• Dr. Badar Munir Khan Ghauri

• Head of Department (RS & GISc)

• Co-Principal Investigator• Dr. Arjumand Zaidi

• Assistant Professor

• Graduate Research Assistants• Rao Muhammad Zahid Khalil

• Muhammad Arslan Hafeez

• Sumaira Zafar

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Contents

• Background

• Objectives

• Methodology

• Results & Discussion

• Conclusion

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• Temporary meteorological event

• Which stems from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time compared to some long-term average conditions

• Always starts with a shortage of precipitation but may affect streams, soil moisture, groundwater, etc.

Drought………?

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• A recurring natural event

• A normal part of the climate of all world regions,regardless of how arid or humid they are

Drought………?

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Overall Rank

EventDegree

of Severity

Length of Event

Total arial Extent

Total loss of life

Total economic

loss

Social effect

Long-term impact

Suddenness

1 Drought 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4

2Tropical Cyclone 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 5

3Regional

Flood 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 4

4 Earthquake 1 5 1 2 1 1 2 3

5 Volcano 1 4 4 2 2 2 1 3

6Tropical Storm 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 5

7 Tsunami 2 4 1 2 2 2 3 4

8 Dust Storm 3 3 2 5 4 5 4 1

9 Landslide 4 2 2 4 4 4 5 2

10 Tornado 2 5 3 4 4 4 5 2

11 Snowstorm 4 3 3 5 4 4 5 2

12 Flash Flood 3 5 4 4 4 4 5 1

Severity Levels of Natural Disasters *

* Source: Bryant, E.A. Natural Hazards, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. (1991).8/22/2016 9:16:22 PM 9

Brief History of Hazards in Pakistan

• Pakistan continues to suffer natural and human induced hazards

• Natural hazards include Cyclones, drought, floods, landslides, earthquakes

• Human induced include fires, terrorism, civil unrest, industrial accidents, transport accidents and war etc.

• About 6,037 people were killed and 8,989,631 were affected from 1993 – 2002 *

* World Disasters Report, 2003

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Overall Rank Natural Disaster Degree of Severity1 Avalanches 12 Cyclones 163 Droughts 44 Earthquakes 18

5 Epidemics 6

6 Floods 33

8 Landslides 3

9 Pest Attacks 110 Extreme Temperature 12

Disasters No. of Events CasualtiesDamages (Million

USD)Drought 4 223 247

Earthquake 22 142812 5200Epidemic 10 283 0

Flood 53 11767 6000Landslides 13 413 0

Windstorms 21 11654 4

Transport 19 420 179

Frequency of Significant hazards in Pakistan (1954 - 2004)

Estimated No. of people Killed and the Financial losses (1926 – 2006)

Source: Disaster Risk Management, TWG Working Group Meeting, United Nations, May 17, 2007.8/22/2016 9:16:22 PM 11


• The droughts and the associated famines havebeen affecting the Indus Basin from time to time

• Worst drought occurred in 1899, 1920 and 1935 in Punjab province *

• 1902 and 1951 in the KPK *

• 1871, 1881, 1899, 1931, 1947 and 1998 in the Sindh province *

* Ahmad et al., Drought mitigation in Pakistan: Current status and options for future strategies. Working Paper 85. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (2004).8/22/2016 9:16:23 PM 12

Why Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to drought?

• The total land mass of Pakistan is 79.6 mha*

• Out of which 70 mha is arid to semi-arid (88%)*

• The 41 mha is classified as arid area

• Out of which 11 mha falls under main deserts** where climate is hyper arid and become permanently vulnerable to drought

* PADMU. Country report Pakistan – Desertification problems, extent and remedial measures. Pakistan Desertification Monitoring Unit (PADMU), Islamabad (1983)** Kahlown, M. A. and A. Majeed. Pakistan water resources development and management, Pakistan Councilof Researh in Water Resources (2004).8/22/2016 9:16:23 PM 13


• Only 9% of Pakistan receives more than 50cm of rain per year

• 22% receives between 20 – 50 cm

• Remaining 69% receives less than 25cm

• Rainfall primarily occur in the monsoon months which is 70 – 80 % of the total*

* UNO. Pakistan – Drought. OCHA Situation Report No. 3. (2000).http://un.org.pk/drought/ocha-rpt3.htm

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Period KPK Punjab Balochistan Sindh

Dec - Mar 228.8 81.1 69.3 14.2

Jun - Sept 252.9 260.3 64.2 137.5

Apr - May 106.5 36.5 20.1 5.5

Oct - Nov 37.7 11.3 4.8 4.4

Estimated 30 years province wise precipitation in Pakistan (mm) *

* S. A. Anjum et al., An Assessment to vulnerability, extent, characteristics and severity of drought hazard in Pakistan, Pakistan Journal of Science (Vol. 64 No. 2 June, 2012)

• In each season some regions of the country are extremely dry and always suffer from drought

• If following seasons do not receive sufficient precipitation

• the drought conditions emerge in these areas and gainingseverity.

• So that drought has become an intermittentphenomenon in the country.

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Extent and Status of Drought in Pakistan

• Extreme drought of 1998 – 2002:• The severely affected provinces were Balochistan &

Sindh

• 1.5 million people were affected and killed about two million animals

• In Sindh, 127 people died , mostly in Tharparkar

• About 60% people moved to irrigated area

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Extent and Status of Drought in Pakistan

• Moderate drought of 2004 till 2005:• Again gripped the Balochistan and Sindh

• No damage or death occurred

• In winter of 2005 average rainfall was 40% less and snowfall was 25% less than normal

• Weak drought of mid 2009 – mid 2010:• Occurred in upper parts of Pakistan i.e., Punjab, KPK,

Gilgit, Kashmir and Northern Balochistan

• The drought caused 30% less rain in monsoon

• Farmers were worst affected

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Summary

• Drought is the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards

• Severe drought periods affected livelihoods, caused crop failure, human deaths, killed large no. of cattle and pushed tens of thousands people to migrate

• Agriculture sector had grown at an average rate of 4.54 percent per annum in decade of 1990s

• It became 2.64 and 0.07 percent during 2000-01 and 2001-02 respectively*

* Govt. of Pakistan. Agricultural stiatistics of Pakistan for 2001-02. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock, Economic Division, IslamabadPakistan (2002).8/22/2016 9:16:23 PM 19

Summary

• Drought related multidisciplinary information can be handled by using GIS.

• Government institutions look after potential drought-stricken victims and others living in potential drought areas by using spatial analysis in GIS that can lead to a decision support system.

The aim of this project is to start filling this

niche

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Objectives

• This study is based on applications of satellite and ground based measurements for delineating drought prone areas in Sindh.

• It will be helpful for developing a continuous drought monitoring system and future strategies.

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Objectives

• To identify drought affected/prone areas in Sindh province

• To develop a methodology to determine drought severity utilizing satellite-based data

• To relate the impact of meteorological drought with agricultural drought

• To suggest possible strategies towards mitigation of drought impacts based on study outcome

• To recommend further studies for effective and operationally reliable use of different vegetation indices for monitoring drought and assessing its impacts

• To develop the Web-Based Drought Monitor Decision Support System (DM-DSS)

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Methodology

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Data Used

• MODIS NDVI Product:• Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro radiometer

(MODIS) satellite, provides 16 day composite imagery having spatial resolution of 250 meter.

• Total 320 images were used of temporal range from year 2000 to 2014.

• MODIS LST Product:• Acquired 8 day composite of spatial resolution 1km

• Approx. 640 images were used

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Data Used

• NCEP Climate Data• The precipitation data was downloaded from

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR).

• The Sindh province covers approximately 195 points having spatial resolution of 30 km.

• The data is in CSV format and on daily basis.

• The daily data were converted into monthly data by using SQL queries in SQL Server Management Studio (SSMS).

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• Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)• Developed by McKee et al. in 1993*

• Simple index--precipitation is the only parameter (probability of observed precipitation transformed into an index)

• Being used by variety of research institutions, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services across the world as part of drought monitoring and early warning efforts*.

Drought Indices

* Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide, World Meteorological Organization, WMO-No. 1090

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Drought Indices

• SPI Calculation Method

The H(x) is then transformed to the Standard normal random variable Z, which is the value of the SPI.

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• The 12-month SPI was calculated for years 1980 -2014 by using the freeware program designed by National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), US.

• District and provincial wise time series graphs were developed

• Approx. 400 SPI maps were generated using interpolation technique

Drought Indices

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Drought Indices

• The NDVI is a common vegetation index reflecting vegetation amount

• One of the first remotely sensed indices successfully used for monitoring vegetation condition & drought detection

• But NDVI has two main limitations for drought monitoring• The time lag between rainfall and NDVI response

• Little influence of significant precipitation events later in the growing season on NDVI

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Drought Indices

• Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI)

• Combination of NDVI and land surface temperature (Ts)

• Provides information on the vegetation and moisture status.

• Drought index based on Ts should be more efficient than those based on NDVI.

• Ts is more sensitive to water stress

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Drought Indices

Definition of TVDI, Sandholt et al. 2002 ** I. Sandholt, K. Rasmussen and J. Anderson. “A simple interpretation of the surface temperature/vegetation index space for assessment of surface moisture status.” Remote Sensing of Environment, 79, pp. 213-224, 2002.8/22/2016 9:16:23 PM 34

• 2D Spectral Space of NDVI-LST

Drought Indices

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y = -23.867x + 51.711R² = 0.9025

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

LST

NDVI

DRY EDGE PLOTTING

Pixels Linear (Pixels)

y = 5.1075x + 24.596R² = 0.7358

0

10

20

30

40

-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

LST

NDVI

WET EDGE PLOTTING

Pixels Linear (Pixels)

Drought Indices

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Drought Indices

• Mathematical Representation of TVDI

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NDVI Time Series

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• SPI values were classified according to the classification system developed by McKee et al. (1993).

Results & Discussion

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• Sindh Province SPI

SPI Time Series

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• District wise SPI

SPI Time Series

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SPI Time Series

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SPI Time Series

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SPI Time Series

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SPI Time Series

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SPI Time Series

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SPI Time Series

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SPI Time Series

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SPI Time Series

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SPI Time Series

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SPI Time Series

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TVDI Time Series

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• Drought Monitor Decision Support System (DM-DSS) • A drought monitoring system that integrates information

from climate and satellite databases has been developed

• A web-based system

• This interactive web mapping application supports visualization of drought information

• Includes different layers such as satellite-derived Indices, climatic Indices (SPI), biophysical data (e.g., land cover) that may provide relevant geospatial information for decision makers.

Web-Based DSS

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DatabaseInformation

LayerDrought

IndicatorsKnowledge

LayerUser

Interface

Climate data

Satellite data

Others

Climatological drought indices

Satellite derived indices

Organizing and

formatting of Indices

Analysis of Indices

Data Visualization,

GIS layers, Web-based

dissemination techniques

Users

Implementation of Decisions

Feedback

Web-Application Framework

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Architecture

Request

Images, Maps

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OGC Web Service

• Web Map Services (WMS) were used

• WMS produces maps of spatially referenced data dynamically from geographic information

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Web Mapping Server

• Basic purpose is to publish the geospatial information

• Access existing geospatial information in diverse formats and serve this information to map clients through standard protocols

• ArcGIS Server 10.2.1 was used

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Web GIS - APIs

• An API is usually related to a software library that includes specifications for routines, data structures, object classes, and variables

• Web GIS APIs allow access to geospatial information in web environments

• Open Layers APIs were used

• Pure JavaScript library for displaying map data with no server-side dependencies

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Functions

• User can access the historic situation of drought

• Compare drought situation of different periods at a time

• Also visually identify where the change occurred by using swipe tool

• Time series of indices can be access

• Graphical representation of each individual layer is also available

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Possible Strategies Towards Mitigation

• The most obvious mitigation strategy is to conserve the water supplies that already exist

• Water resource managers do all they can to convince water users to change wasteful habits and develop an attitude of appreciation for every drop of this precious resource

• Beyond conservation, a range of technology-enhanced drought mitigation strategies exist

• One strategy is to hold surface water in reservoirs until it is needed

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Possible Strategies Towards Mitigation

• Another strategy is to use new farming practices that require less water

• Third, some people suggest that we can avoid drought with cloud seeding—sprinkling small particles into clouds in order to make it rain

• Finally, some groups want to mitigate drought by investing in research and technology that would make desalinization of seawater economically feasible

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Conclusion

• The objective of this project was to develop a methodology that will help in acquiring the timely information about the onset of drought, its extent, intensity, duration and impacts

• Identification of drought prone areas in Sindh by integrating Remote sensing & GIS

• The indices used to accomplished above task are NDVI, SPI and TVDI.

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Conclusion

• SPI based results indicated 1988, 2000, 2002 and 2004 were the most precipitation deficit, warm and drought years

• TVDI based result showed March of 2008 was the most moisture surplus month

• Feb and May of 2004 and 2005 respectively were the most deficit months

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Conclusion

• An operational drought monitoring method has been developed and this is achieved through a well-defined Web-Based drought monitoring application

• These recent advances in science and technology enhances drought monitoring capabilities and the availability of such information, which allows decision makers to make more knowledge-based decisions to reduce the impacts of drought

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drought project

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