dsmt - thinking about the future

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Digital Strategist’s Mental Toolkit:Thinking about the future_


What this section will cover:

• Strategist as futurist • Methods

– Scenario planning – Big trends

Key points_


Educating yourself now, in order to make the proper decision in the future.

“The future is already here, it is just not evenly distributed.” William Gibson

Futurism_


An exercise to determine possible outcomes for decision support

1. Identify focal issue2. Local forces 3. Macro forces 4. Rank and identify key forces5. Set logics6. Flesh out the scenarios

Scenario planning_

Source: The Art of the Long View; Peter Schwartz


1. Identify focal issue:– Start with an ‘inside-out’ focus– Begin with a specific decision or issue

e.g. Should we invest in social media platform X

Scenario planning_



2. Determine local factors– Key factors influencing the success or failure of the decision – What will key decision makers want to know when making choices?

e.g. What internal content resources will be available?

Scenario planning_



3. Identify macro forces – Social, economical, political, environmental, and technological forces– What are the macro forces behind the local forces identified

e.g. Consumer loyalty to a social platform

Scenario planning_



4. Rank key factors and forces– Degree of importance for the success of the focal issue– Degree of uncertainty surrounding the forces– Identify the two or three that are the most important and the most

uncertain

e.g. The popularity of social platform X is highly uncertain given historical precedent

Scenario planning_



5. Set logics – combos of forces– The results are the axes for each possible written scenario– Scenario drivers need to be limited in number or else you have an

explosion of possible combinations

e.g. low loyalty, low content availability – where defection happens to competitive platform where competitive brands have better content; high loyalty, low content availability – where consumers stay on the platform but disengage from the brand; etc

Scenario planning_



6. Flesh out the scenarios– Develop them along the priority axes but also include other key factors

and forces as required to create depth. Align them with one axis. – Weave them into a narrative

• How would things get from here to there• What events make the endpoint plausible?

– Return to the focal issue and look at the implications• How does the decision look in each scenario?

Scenario planning_



Seeking the big themes that may have an impact down the road:

• Look for cross pollinators• Find the exponentials• Look for liberators• Time wasters• Deep design

Tracking big trends_

Source: WIRED Magazine; Thomas Goetz


1. Look for cross pollinators– Look for interdisciplinary pioneers– People good at reframing the problem with insights from another

domain

e.g. Stewart Brand: How Buildings Learn was a fusion of evolution and architecture




2. Find the exponentials– Cyclical, rapidly improving technologies– Innovators can follow on with cheaper, faster, better

e.g. Cost of broadband and the development of YouTube




3. Look for liberators– Those who recognize scarcity and move to eliminate it– Those who see assets that are locked up and they free them

e.g. Napster; AirBnB




4. Engage with time wasters– Where are people being consciously inefficient?– Look for people playing, exploring

e.g. Homebrew Computer Club – lead to the birth of Apple




5. Read– Explore tangents – Step outside your comfort zone

e.g. Arts and Letters daily, Longreads




Sources of Power; Gary KleinHow Buildings Learn; Stewart BrandThe Mind’s I; Douglas HofstadterThe Art of the Long View; Peter SchwartzWhat Technology Wants; Kevin KellyThe Creative Priority; Jerry HirshbergThe Seven Strategies of Master Presenters; Dr Brad McRaeYou Are Not a Gadget; Jaron Lanier

Recommended reading_

dsmt - thinking about the future

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