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DUBAIWeekly Highlights - Domestic Developments- Global Business Developments- Global Economic Developments

July, Week 2

Economic Research Department

Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry

I. Domestic DevelopmentsHealth: mass testing to help contain COVID-19

2Source: Ourworldindata, as of Jul 7, 2020

Figure 1 – Adjusted total confirmed COVID-19 cases in the GCC (cases per million person)

I. Domestic DevelopmentsEconomy: UAE PMI signals non-oil sector stabilizing in June

3Source: IHS Markit

40

45

50

55

60

65

'1 0 '1 1 '1 2 '1 3 '1 4 '1 5 '1 6 '1 7 '1 8 '1 9 '2 0

Source: IHS Markit.

50.4

index < 50 indicates contractionindex > 50 indicates expansion

Figure 2 – Monthly UAE PMI (index points)

Figure 4 – COOs issued for China-bound shipments (monthly, declared value in AED million)

249 224

246 249

283

386

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20

I. Domestic DevelopmentsDubai Trade: exports to Africa at pre-COVID19 avg. level, China hits record

4Source: DCCI Certificates of Origins (COOs) Database

Figure 3 – COOs issued for Africa-bound shipments (monthly, declared value in AED million)

2,775 2,786

3,256

2,514 2,451

2,936

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20

I. Domestic DevelopmentsTravel and Tourism: Dubai re-opened to tourists on July 7th

5Source: IATA, as of July 8th

Figure 5 – Current global border restrictions

6

II. Global Business Developments Travel and Tourism: optimism returning to business travel

Source: Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) Coronavirus Polls

Region

Plan to Resume Travel in Near Future (1-3 months)

Considering ResumingTravel in Near Future, but

No Definite Plans

Do not plan to resume travel in Near Future

Not Sure

June Poll May Poll June Poll May Poll June Poll May Poll June Poll May Poll

Asia Pacific (excl. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan)

12% 11% 39% 36% 32% 34% 18% 19%

-China 12% 11% 36% 34% 34% 36% 18% 19%

Europe 25% 16% 41% 43% 20% 25% 14% 16%

Latin America 13% 11% 40% 37% 29% 32% 18% 19%

United States 38% 28% 38% 44% 13% 16% 11% 12%

Canada 33% 24% 38% 41% 15% 20% 14% 16%

Middle East / Africa 13% 9% 37% 36% 32% 35% 17% 20%

All International Travel 12% 10% 44% 42% 28% 29% 16% 19%

All Domestic Travel 49% 35% 34% 45% 8% 10% 9% 11%

All Travel 22% 15% 50% 54% 12% 14% 16% 17%

Table 1 – Companies’ plans to resume business travel

Table 2 – Composite Index summary

Index May-20 Jun-20 Interpretation

Output 36.3 47.7 Decline, slower rate

New Business 35.8 47.7 Decline, slower rate

New Export Business 31.7 43.7 Decline, slower rate

Future Output 50.5 57.5 Growth expected, greater optimism

Employment 41.2 46.4 Decline, slower rate

Outstanding Business 39.8 46.9 Decline, slower rate

Input Prices 46.2 51.7 Inflation, from falling

Output Prices 45.7 49.5 Decline, slower rate

index < 50 indicates contractionindex > 50 indicates expansion

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III. Global Economic Developments PMI: global economy approaching stabilization

Source: J.P.Morgan, IHS Markit

20

30

40

50

60

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

47.7

index < 50 indicates contractionindex > 50 indicates expansion

Figure 6 – J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index

8Source: World Bank

III. Global Economic Developments Commodities: prices’ rebound continues in June

48.4

83.5

73.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Energy Agriculture Metals and Minerals

Figure 7 – Commodity price indexes, monthly (2010 = 100)

9Source: World Bank

Figure 8 – Commodity prices in June compared to April and May (% change)

0%

-4% -6%

1% 1% 3% 3%7% 5%

0%

9% 10%13%

10%

3%

29%

-14%-9% -9% -7%

3%6% 7% 7%

11%15%

18% 19%21% 22% 23%

71%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Ure

a

Wh

eat

Co

ffee

Ric

e (

Thai

25

%)

Go

ld

Zin

c

Co

tto

n

Alu

min

um

Rap

esee

d o

il

Be

ef

Silv

er

Suga

r

Tea

Iro

n o

re

Ch

icke

n

Cru

de

oil

/ B

ren

t

May-June % change April-June % change

III. Global Economic Developments Commodities: prices’ rebound continues in June (cont.)