dubai real estate market overview q3 2016 q3_adib-mpm real... · 2018-01-25 · q3 2016 real estate...

DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW

Q3 2016

REAL ESTATE SERVICES

2

During Q3 2016, c.3,900 residential units (apartments and villas) were added to the market, taking the total supply to around 491,000 units, an increase by 2.5% year-on-year.

During the quarter, off-plan market remained very active with the launch of 5,500 new units spread across 20 projects. Attractive payment plans and competitive pricing strategies remained catalyst in drawing end users towards owning properties rather than renting.

Average apartment rents dropped marginally by 1% quarter-on-quarter and 3% year-on-year while average apartment sales rates declined by 6% year-on-year.

Average villa sales and rental rates recorded a 5% decline year-on-year. During the quarter, much of the rental pressure was recorded across high-end properties while the mid-end market villa segment saw an increase in enquiries.

During the third quarter, c.350,000 sq.ft. of space entered the market, taking the total office stock to 93.2 million sq.ft. However, we are seeing a significant drop in strata office space as compared to the past two years.

Office rents remained stable during the quarter across prime and secondary locations. However, the market is witnessing an increase in landlord incentives. Prime office rents ranged from AED90-260 per sq.ft. per annum while in the secondary locations rents varying from as low as AED55 to AED200 per sq.ft. per annum.

Office sales rates declined by 1% in the quarter and 10% year-on-year. The main freehold locations of Jumeirah Lakes Towers and Business Bay recorded the highest yearly declines of 17% and 13% respectively.

The total retail stock of Dubai has reached 34.2 million sq.ft. of Gross Leasable Area (GLA) with the addition of GLA 430,000 sq.ft. spread across the Outlet Village, My City Centre Barsha and Community retail centre in Dubai International City.

Shopping mall rental revenues remained relatively unchanged during the quarter, with some pressure from larger retail groups applying cost management initiatives across the country.

Dubai’s hospitality stock rose by 1 % from the previous quarter, with an addition of 1,300 new hotel rooms and apartments during Q3 2016, surpassing the 100,000 mark.

Hotel performance indicators showed a drop in average ADR by 7+% year-on-year, while occupancy rates remained strong at over 75% which is still relatively high in comparison to hotel markets globally.

FOREWORD ADIB Real Estate Services comprises a comprehensive real estate banking and advisory platform providing the full range of professional services from a single provider. Our services include:-

�� Real estate financing�� Strategic development advisory�� Investment advisory�� Asset management�� Project management

�� Valuation�� Agency�� Market research�� Property management�� Facilities management

3

CONTENTSDemand Drivers 4

Macro Trends 6

Residential Sector 8

Project Focus 16

Office Sector 18

Retail Sector 22

Hospitality Sector 24

Definitions & Methodology 26

Contact Information 27

Supply - Photo Gallery 28

Development Location Map 30

MPM PROPERTIES FACTS AND FIGURES

TOTAL UAE STAFF PROPERTY MANAGEMENT STAFF ADVISORY STAFF

UNITS UNDER MANAGEMENT

LEASING & SALES STAFF LANDLORD CLIENTS

COMBINED MARKET VALUE OF PROPERTIES VALUED SINCE JANUARY 2012

MORTGAGE VALUATIONS SINCE JANUARY 2012

DEDICATED VALUATION PROFESSIONALS

OCCUPANCY RATE

LARGEST ABU DHABI MAINLAND PORTFOLIO

160+

7,600+

No.1

98.5%20+

30+

90bn

35+

23,500+

95+

1,700

REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEWQ3 2016

4

DEMAND DRIVERS

REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTIONHEALTHY INVESTOR INTEREST FOR LARGE AND SMALL ASSETS

�� Dubai Municipality approved Desert Rose City project, an eco-friendly master planned development occupying 14,000 hectares of land in Al Ruwayyah area, along the Dubai – Al Ain road. The project is to be built at a cost of AED30 billion and comprises of 30,000 residential units, of which 20,000 units will be allocated to UAE nationals and the rest 10,000 affordable units for expatriates. The project will also house schools, hospitals, shopping centres, clinics, mosques and other community services.

�� His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE, and Ruler of Dubai

launched Jumeirah Central project along Sheikh Zayed Road. The mixed-use master planned development, being developed by Dubai Holding, will offer 47 million sq.ft. gross floor area across residential, retail, hospitality and office space. The development will have 9 million sq.ft. of retail space including three malls, 4.5 million sq.ft. of outdoor shopping area, 7,200 hotel rooms, 33 parks, schools, offices and parking space for 44,000 cars. The entire development is anticipated to be built at a cost of AED73.4 billion, with phase 1 expected to cost AED24 billion.

Q3 2016 KEY EVENTS�� Modesh World, 25th June – 2nd August, 2016.

�� Cityscape Exhibition and Conference, 06th – 08th September 2016

�� The Hotel Show, 17th – 19th September 2016

�� The Leisure Show, 17th – 19th September 2016

�� Intersolar Middle East, 19th – 21st September 2016

�� Dubai Music Week, 21st – 24th September 2016

GOVERNMENT INITIATIVESATTRACTING ENTREPRENEURS; IMPROVING EASE OF DOING BUSINESS

�� The UAE’s cabinet has approved the bankruptcy law which is expected to come into effect by early 2017. The law is expected to boost investor confidence and drive foreign investments. The law safeguards the rights of both creditors and debtors in liquidation situations and secures creditor rights and enables companies to restructure without unanimous creditor approval. The four main pathways of the new law include:

�� • Financial reorganisation, an initial solution available to financial entities regulated by the Central Bank and/or the Securities and Commodities Authority, overseen by experts appointed by the Committee of Financial Restructuring (CFR);

�� • A pre-emptive settlement, overseen by the courts, which allows a bonafide debtor to agree a settlement with creditors, which will be nullified if the debtor fails to abide by the settlement terms agreed;

�� • Financial restructuring, whereby the company’s debts are restructured to the satisfaction of a majority of creditors holding at least two-thirds of the outstanding debt, in a process overseen by the courts; and

�� • The raising of new funds, according to criteria determined by the courts.

�� Dubai Expo 2020 to allocate 20% of the Expo 2020 contracts valued at more than AED 5 billion to local and international SMEs. Of the 787 contracts awarded to date, 320 have been awarded to SMEs. The Bureau Expo Dubai 2020 has also relaxed the procurement process to allow SMEs to bid competitively by offering a proposal validity period of 60 days, exclusion of tender bonds and no advanced payment guarantee, 50% advanced payment for goods/materials, 25% advanced payment for services, and a 30 days payment from receipt of an approved invoice.

REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2016

5

TOURISM INITIATIVES �� The quarter has seen the opening of multiple cultural and

leisure facilities, which are expected to enhance the hospitality and leisure offering of Dubai.

�� Dubai Opera, a multi-format performing arts centre opened on August 31 2016 with a performance by Placido Domingo. The dhow shaped structure has a seating capacity of 2,000 seats and can be converted into a traditional theatre, concert hall, banquet hall or exhibition space.

�� IMG Worlds of Adventure: The largest indoor theme park managed by IMG Worlds and owned by the Ilyas and Mustafa Galadari Group opened its door to the public on 31st August 2016. The theme park is spread over 1.5 million sq.ft. and features international brands of Marvel and Cartoon Network along with local brands of IMG Boulevard and Lost Valley (Dinosaur Adventure). Other attractions include roller coasters, kids rides, 12 screen Novo Cinema multiplex, 25 retail outlets along with 28 food and beverage outlets. The theme

park has a capacity to hold 30,000 people per day and the management expects to attract over 4.5 million people in the first year of its operation.

�� Dubai Aqua Park, the largest inflatable water park designed in the shape of Dubai’s official logo – the word Dubai in both English and Arabic opened on September 1, 2016. The inflatable park measures 77 metres by 33 metres and includes ramps, slides, bridges, curves and towers. The aqua park can hold up to 500 people at a time.

�� The construction award for the Mohammed bin Rashid Library in Al Jaddaf at a cost of AED 1 billion has been approved by H.H. Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Deputy Ruler of Dubai, UAE Minister of Finance, and Chairman of Dubai Municipality. Construction work on the 650,000 sq.ft. structure is expected to be completed by mid-2018 and is expected to attract 42 million visitors annually.

TRANSPORTATION IMPROVING ACCESSIBILITY AND REACH IN DUBAI; CREATING JOBS

�� RTA has awarded the Dubai Metro Redline, 15 kilometre extension from Nakheel Harbour station to the Expo 2020 site. The AED10.6 billion contract was awarded to a consortium led by French Alstom, Spanish Acciona and Turkish Gulermack. The Expo 2020 route will comprise of seven stations of which five will be above the ground and two underground and will serve areas of the Gardens, Al Furjan, Discovery Gardens, Jumeirah Golf Estates and DIP.

�� Dubai South has awarded AED300 million contract to Tristar Engineering and Construction company for infrastructure works

for phase 1 and 2 of the Residential district. The work is slated to complete by Q4 2017.

�� Dubai Metro passengers increased 9% year-on-year based on latest figures from RTA. The Dubai Metro (Red & Green lines) recorded 96.48 million passenger movements during H1 2016 compared to 88.25 million passenger movements during the same period last year. Of these, 61.2 million passenger movements were recorded at the Red line and 35.28 million across the Green line.

FREEZONES SIGNING UP NEW TENANTS; CREATING EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES

�� Terumo Medical Corporation, a medical products and equipment company opened its Middle East and Africa office in Dubai Airport Freezone to serve its customers in the GCC, Levant, Pakistan and Africa. The Middle East branch will market Terumo products in interventional cardiology, interventional oncology, peripheral intervention, pharmaceutical, cardiovascular, diabetes management and other medical products like syringe and infusion pumps, infusion sets, safety

hypodermic and dental needles etc.

�� KAMCO Investment Company, a subsidiary of United Gulf Bank BSC Bahrain, has opened its first international office in Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). KAMCO is the region’s largest private sector Assets Under Management firms with assets valued at around US$11.2 billion as of end 2015.


6

MACRO TRENDS

DUBAI POPULATION (GROWTH & HOUSEHOLD SIZE)

Population Growth Rate

2009

1.77

1.9

0

2.0

0

2.1

0

2.2

1

2.3

2

2.4

3

2.5

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 20162015

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0PO

PU

LA

TIO

N (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

GR

OW

TH

RA

TE

(%

PA

)

AN

D H

OU

SE

HO

LD

SIZ

E

Household Size

Source: Dubai Statistics Center

DUBAI CONSTRUCTIONACTIVITY %YoY

GDP Construction

%Y

oY

DUBAI CPI VS RENTALCONTRIBUTION TO CPI Q3 2016

CPIHousingContributionto CPISource: Dubai Statistics Center

Source: Dubai Statistics Center

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16e

115.00

110.00

105.00

100.00

95.00

90.00

85.00

JA

N 1

2

JU

N 1

2

JA

N 1

3

JU

N 1

3

JA

N 1

4

JU

N 1

4

JA

N 1

5

JU

N 1

5

JA

N 1

6

JU

N 1

6

SE

PT

16

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%

-30.0%

Source: Dubai Statistics Center and MPM Properties Research

DUBAI GDP SHARE BREAKDOWN BY ECONOMIC SECTORS - 2016 YTD

6%

29%

22%15%

11%

12%

5%


7

INVESTOR ANALYSIS

2012 2013 2014

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2015 2016

Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Valu

e (

in M

illio

ns)

Sales Transactions

Tra

nsa

cti

on

s

DUBAI LAND TRANSACTIONSVOLUME vs VALUE

Sales Value

4,000

2,000

0

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2012 2013 2014

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2015 2016

Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

DUBAI LAND TRANSACTIONSQoQ% CHANGE

Sales Transactions

Source: DLD and MPM Properties Research

* Established Real estate

Source: DLD and MPM Properties Research

TOP NATIONALITIES INVESTING IN DUBAI PROPERTY IN H1 2016

Tra

nsa

cti

on

Valu

eA

ED

mill

ion

TOP LOCATIONS - RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTION VALUE

Q3 2016 Q2 2016

Source: DLD

0100200300400500600700800

Bu

sin

ess

Bay

Ju

meir

ah

Vill

ag

e

Du

bai

Sp

ort

s C

ity

Ju

meir

ah

Lakes

To

wers

Ara

bia

nR

an

ch

es

Palm

Ju

meir

ah

Ju

meir

ah

Beach

Resi

den

ce

Du

bai

Mari

na

Do

wn

tow

nD

ub

ai

Em

irate

sL

ivin

g

Valu

e (

AE

D' B

illio

ns)

0

3

6

9

12

15

KuwaitEgyptJordanCanadaIranPakistanUnitedKingdom

SaudiArabia

IndiaUAE

Source: DLD


8

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY �� During Q3 2016, approximately 3,900 new

residential units (apartments and villas) were added to the market, taking the total supply to around 491,000 units. About 34% of the new supply comprised of villas and townhouses and the remainder was apartments.

�� Over the past 12 months c.12,000 new units entered the market, registering an increase of 2.5% year-on-year. Looking at the ongoing construction activity, we expect a further addition of 2,500-3,000 units during the course of 2016.

�� During the third quarter, off-plan market remained active and witnesse the launch of over 20 projects with a cumulative inventory of over 5,500 units comprising of villas, townhouses, apartments and serviced apartments.

�� Developers continue to launch off-plan properties targeted towards a new stream of investors entering the market. Attractive payment plans and competitive pricing strategies are acting as a catalyst in drawing end users towards owning properties rather than renting.

2014 2015 H1 2016 Q4 2016Q3 2016 2017

Source: MPM Properties Research

Supply Apartments

RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY BY UNITS 2013-2017

Existing Supply Villas +% Change

1.9% 2.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 3.6% YoY 3.1%

20130

100

200

300

400

500

600

444 452 469 481 488 492 495

8.5 14 11 5 3 3 143 1.2 1.2 1 1 4


9

SAMPLE OF RESIDENTIAL UPCOMING PROJECTS

SAMPLE OF ANNOUNCED PROJECTS IN Q3 2016

NAME OF PROJECT TYPE DEVELOPER LOCATION

Akoya Imagine Townhouses Damac Akoya Oxygen

Acacia at Park Heights Apartments Emaar Dubai Hills Estate

The Galleries Apartments Rockweill Real Estate Meydan Avenue

Roy Mediterranean Serviced Apartments Azizi Developments Al Furjan

Azizi Mina Hotel Apartments Azizi Developments Al Furjan

Casa Dora Townhouses Dubai Properties Mudon

Urbana Townhouses Emaar Dubai South

Act One & Two Apartments Emaar Downtown Dubai

Creek Horizon 1 & 2 Apartments Emaar Dubai Creek

Safi Townhouses Townhouses Nshama Townsquare

Imperial Avenue Apartments Shapoorji Pallonji Downtown Dubai

Al Jawahara Residences Apartments Tiger Properties Jumeirah Village Triangle

Hartland Green - Building 3 Apartments Sobha Sobha Hartland - Meydan

Hartland Green - Building 4 Apartments Sobha Sobha Hartland - Meydan

Casa Familia Townhouses National Bonds Motor City

Sobha Hartland Townhouses

Townhouses Sobha Sobha Hartland - Meydan

Bloom Heights Apartments Bloom Properties Jumeirah Village Circle

Montrell Serviced Apartments Azizi Developments Al Furjan

Cassia at the Fields Townhouses G&Co District 11, MBRC

LOCATION PROPERTY NAME

District 1, MBRC Sobha Meydan Villas

Palm Jumeirah Muraba Residences

Al Qusais Emirates Airlines Accommodation

Dubai Marina Escan Marina Tower

Business Bay Shafar Tower

Living Legends, Dubailand Hercules Tower

Jumeirah Village Circle Spica Residences

Dubai Studio City Glitz 1

Al Furjan Iris Residence


10

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

Th

eG

reen

s

Ju

meir

ah

Beach

Resi

den

ce

Bu

sin

ess

Bay

Du

bai

Mari

na

Th

eV

iew

s

Palm

Ju

meir

ah

DIF

C

Old

To

wn

Do

wn

tow

nD

ub

ai

APARTMENT AVERAGE SALES PRICES (Q3 2016)AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE

AE

D/s

q.ft.


0.0% -1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.7% 0.0% 0.0%-3.0% QoQ

YoY -8% -8% -4% -2% -10% -7% -3% -9%-4%

0

500

1,000

1,5002,000

2,500

2,1

50

1,9

25

1,8

00

1,6

00

1,6

00

1,4

00

1,25

0

1.3

85

1,225

APARTMENT SALE PRICES �� During Q3 2016, a total of 2,147 residential

apartments were transacted with a cumulative value of AED2.75 billion. The highest number of transactions in value and volume terms were recorded in Dubai Marina wherein 309 transactions were recorded with a total value of AED524 million. Other active areas were Palm Jumeirah recording residential apartment transactions worth AED308 million followed by Downtown Dubai with AED261 million.

�� On average apartment sales rates for ready properties declined marginally by 1% in the quarter and 6% year-on-year. The drop was largely fragmented with few areas recording above the average drop.

�� Despite Q3 being a historically weak period for the real estate sector, the market witnessed the launch of over 4,000 off-plan apartments. Affordability and payment plans remained key selling points for the new launches. Properties with a ticket size of AED700,000 to AED 1.0 million, targeted towards mid-income households, recorded relatively high absorption.

�� As inventories continue to rise from completed as well as off-plan properties, we foresee a further decline in sale rates and transaction volumes. However, much of the impact is likely to be towards luxury and high-end segments of the market while affordable properties are expected to perform better over the short term.


11

APARTMENT RENTS�� Apartment leasing performance remained

subdued during Q3 2016 as compared to the previous quarter. Historically, the third quarter recorded lower activity due to the peak summer and vacation period.

�� During Q3 2016, average apartment rents dropped marginally by 1% and 3% year-on-year. Established residential locations of Downtown Dubai, Sheikh Zayed road and Bur Dubai have been able to retain high occupancy while emerging new master communities of Sports City, Silicon Oasis and Al Furjan have recorded rental deflation of 5%, which is marginally above the average decline.

�� The pressure on retaining existing tenants remained high on most landlords radar. Even though the RERA Rental matrix permits rent increases, most landlords have chosen to continue with previous rents.

�� New properties entering the market are taking a longer time to lease, with a few landlords offering tenant incentives in the form of rent free period or relaxed payment terms of 6-8 cheques, while waiving of commission and chiller charges for one year.

LOCATION STUDIO 1BR 2BR 3BR Q-ON-Q Y-ON-Y

Business Bay 66 85 118 165 0.00% -3.96%

DIFC 80 110 155 215 -1.41% -3.79%

Discovery Gardens 49 70 93 - -0.00% -1.07%

Downtown Dubai 75 110 155 220 -0.88% -2.31%

Dubai Marina 63 93 138 195 -2.50% -5.34%

Greens 68 88 130 160 0.00% -2.50%

International City 36 48 70 - -0.90% -3.16%

Jumeirah Beach Residence

78 105 130 175 -0.82% -1.89%

Jumeirah Lakes Towers 60 85 118 155 -2.08% -5.75%

Palm Jumeirah 88 123 165 195 -0.63% -1.78%

Barsha Heights 60 82 105 140 -0.88% -3.25%

AVERAGE APARTMENT ANNUAL RENTS Q3 2016 (AED‘000)



12

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Al F

urj

an

Ju

meir

ah

Vill

ag

e

Sp

rin

gs

& M

ead

ow

s

Ju

meir

ah

Park

Ara

bia

nR

an

ch

es

Du

bai

Sp

ort

s C

ity

Th

eL

akes

Palm

Ju

meir

ah

AVERAGE VILLA SALE PRICE AED/ sq.ft. Q3 2016

AE

D/s

q.ft


0.0%

+5%

-2.0%

-8.0%

0.0%

-6.0%

0.0%

-6.0%

-2.0%

-8.0%

-2.0%

-5.0%

-5.0%

-9.0%

0.0%

-4.0%

QoQ

YoY

2,5

00

1,3

25

1,15

0

1,12

5

1,10

0

1,0

50

1,0

00

1,0

00

VILLA SALE PRICES �� According to the data sourced from the

Dubai Land Department, a total of 279 villas were transacted with a total value of AED1.1 billion during Q3 2016. About 60% of these transactions, in value terms, were across Emirates Living and Arabian Ranches. The total value of transactions recorded in Emirates Living was AED 344.8 million followed by Arabian Ranches at AED 300.3 million, highlighting healthy demand in established communities.

�� C.900 villas/townhouses were launched during the third quarter, achieving an overall absorption rate of 52% which is a healthy indicator for the market. It has been noticed that properties with an affordable ticket size were comparatively more attractive among investors and occupiers than high end properties during Q3.

�� Examples can be drawn from Safi townhouses in Town Square development wherein all the units launched by the developer were taken up by investors, within a record time primarily due to attractive pricing and payment strategy adopted by the developer.

�� Average villa sales rates across villa communities declined by 5% year-on-year. However, a few developments which were handed over the past two quarters recorded an increase in the range of 3-5%. The increase was mainly noticed across smaller unit sizes of three to four bedrooms units in Arabian Ranches and Jumeirah Park developments.


13

PROJECT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM 4 BEDROOM 5 BEDROOM Q.O.Q Y.O.Y

Al Furjan - 160 - 215 -0.76% -6.83%

Arabian Ranches 150 185 250 295 -1.81% -5.15%

Dubai Sports City - 180 200 285 -0.57% -2.03%

Jumeirah Park - - 250 285 -0.98% -6.65%

Jumeirah Village 140 155 180 - -0.34% -1.37%

Meadows - 225 250 285 -0.86% -5.07%

Palm Jumeirah - 335 430 495 -1.43% -6.18%

Springs 130 175 - - 0.00% -3.00%

Jumeirah Islands - - 300 370 -1.61% -5.69%

Jumeirah Golf Estates - 275 320 390 -1.02% -4.10%

AVERAGE VILLA ANNUAL RENTS Q3 2016 (AED’000)


VILLA RENTS �� Average villa rents during Q3 2016 recorded

a marginal drop of 1% and 5% year-on-year. During the quarter, much of the rental pressure was recorded across high-end properties while the mid-end market villa segment saw an increase in enquiries.

�� Rental decline remains fragmented with areas such as Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Islands, Meadows and Arabian Ranches recording rental deflation of 5%+ year-on-year. Rental decline in Arabian Ranches was largely linked to 600 villas being handed over during the Q3.

�� In order to avoid any issues related to rental payments, a few landlords have started requesting for bank statements / salary letters, etc to check tenant’s financial status before signing on the tenancy agreement.

�� Completion of community facilities in Jumeirah Park development is aiding towards rental stablisation after a sharp drop in rental values during 2015 to H1 2016. During Q3 2016, rents remained stable with five bedroom villas renting in the range of AED250,000-320,000 per annum per unit.

�� Looking at the pipeline supply, we expect villa rents to remain under stress during the course of this year; however, much of the impact is likely to be towards luxury and high-end segments.


14

350

500

425

350

500425

600

950

775

275350

313

GCC FREEHOLD LAND VALUES Q3 2016

1,000900800700600500400300200100

0

AE

D /

Sq

.ft.


Mirdif Al Barsha Umm Suqeim Al Warqa

HighLow Average

GCC FREEHOLD VILLA RENTS Q3 2016

AE

D (

Th

ou

san

ds)


4 Bed3 Bed 5 Bed

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Al WarqaUmm SuqeimAl BarshaMirdif

155180

215210235

280

180

218

270

135155

170

3.8

8.05.9

7.5

15.0

11.310.0

24.0

17.0

4.5

7.56.0

GCC FREEHOLD VILLA VALUES Q3 2016

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0

AE

D (

Mill

ion

)


Mirdif Al Barsha Umm Suqeim Al Warqa

HighLow Average


15


15


16

Q2 2015

PROJECT FOCUS ZEN BY INDIGO - DUBAI GOLF CITY

ZEN BY INDIGO FACT SHEET

The Zen project is situated within Dubai Golf City, a master-planned community in an upcoming residential location. The project is strategically located at the junction of Hessa and Academic City roads and can be easily accessed via major road networks of Mohammed Bin Zayed Road and Emirates Road.

The project offers 389 villas and townhouses within a gated community. It offers 3, 4, 5 and 6 bedroom villas and townhouses with plot sizes ranging from

2,300 – 9,900 sq.ft and built-up areas ranging from 2,800 – 8,000 sq.ft. The project is developed and marketed by Indigo Properties which has been in UAE’s real estate foray since 2004. The developer has a good track record of delivering projects on time with successful project delivery of ‘Orange Lakes’ in Jumeirah Golf Estates, Indigo and Indigo Icon towers in Jumeirah Lakes Towers and Indigo Ville in Jumeirah Village Circle.

“Despite some negative sentiments regarding a market slowdown, the rental yields in Dubai continues to be the highest amongst the top cities worldwide. The real estate market decline is largely due to a significant fall in global oil prices, along with wider global economic factors, such as the sluggish growth in the Eurozone economies. It is likely that the real estate market specifically in Dubai will outperform the UAE on an aggregate basis over the next year, mainly because Dubai’s economy is considerably less dependent on oil revenue compared to other Emirates. We expect more buyers to come out of the “wait and watch” mode.

We have been seeing a gradual shift from investors towards more end-users accounting for the bulk of current transactions. With the current real estate market for buyers being slow, we have decided to simultaneously cater to a more reasonably priced niche market. We have done so by introducing townhouses of 2,900 sq ft in Indigo Zen, with the objective of catering to a wider range of end users.”

Dev MitraCEO, Indigo Properties LLC

�� 4.5 million square feet of prime freehold land;

�� Nature theme with over 600,000 exotic plants;

�� 20 uniquely themed community parks;

�� 6.5 kilometers of nature trail;

� Over 75,000 sq.ft. of flowing water bodies;

� Over 80,000 sq.ft. of retail community centre;

� 2 clubhouses and multipurpose halls;

� Gated residential community featuring townhouses and villas;

� A varied mix of residential offerings from three to six bedroom villas catering to a diverse profile of investors and end-users;

� Each villa comprises of a designer swimming pool and panoramic glass elevators.

The show villas are currently under construction and expected to be ready by end of 2016 while the entire development is scheduled for completion by 2018.

17

PAYMENT PLAN

�� Payment Plan� 15% booking amount� 10% start of construction� 10% on completion of 20% construction

� 10% on completion of 40% construction� 15% on completion of 60% construction� 40% on handover

17


18

OFFICE SUMMARY �� Limited availability of quality office space

with large floor plates is driving several large occupiers towards custom built space with longer lease commitments mainly in the CBD and freezone areas.

�� During the third quarter of 2016, average lease rates remained unchanged across the board. However, we have noticed a rise in landlord incentives, viz offering rent free periods and relaxed payment terms or in few instances, the landlords are willing to absorb fit out costs to secure a long term tenant contract with a large occupier.

�� Office properties across freezone locations such as Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Tecom and Dubai Airport Freezone (DAFZA) are recording over 90% occupancy rate and are anticipated to remain in high demand due to limited new stock completing in near future, while tenant demand stays high.

�� While demand for office space from SME’s remains strong, the demand is largely limited to smaller office space of less than 2,500 sq.ft. The government initiatives of allocating AED5 billion of Dubai Expo contracts to SME’s will further boost the sector.

OFFICE SECTOR

0

20

40

60

80

100

DUBAI OFFICE STOCK (2008 - 2017)

Mill

ion

sq

.ft.

20092008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H12016

Q32016

Stock Expected


2017

4.21.70.32.36.8

2.50.26.06.0

10.0

8.06.0

95939391848181756959

5145

Q42016


19

OFFICE SALES �� According to the data sourced from the Dubai Land

Department, circa 343,000 sq.ft. of office space transacted during the quarter with a total value of AED396.9 million as compared to AED490.1 million in Q2, 2016, registering a decline of 19% quarter-on-quarter.

�� The freehold developments of Business Bay and Jumeirah Lakes Towers accounted for 76% of the total value of transaction in Q3 2016. Business Bay registered AED181.9 million worth of transactions across 155,650 sq.ft. of space, averaging at AED1,170 per sq.ft. Whilst in Jumeirah Lakes Towers 125,500 sq.ft. of office space was transacted at a total value of AED121.1 million, averaging at AED965 per sq.ft.

�� Across major freehold office locations, average office sale rates dropped by 1% quarter-on- quarter and 10% year- on- year. The main freehold locations of Jumeirah Lakes Towers and Business Bay recorded the highest year-on-year declines of 17% and 13% respectively.

�� Despite the substantial drop in supply of strata space, capital values across freehold office locations are likely to decline further due to demand and supply imbalance.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

BarshaHeights

JumeirahLake Towers

BusinessBay

DubaiMarina

DIFCDowntownDubai

OFFICE AVERAGE SALE PRICES Q3 2016

AE

D /

sq

.ft.

-2.0%

-7.0%

0.0%

-8.0%

0.0%

-13.0%

-2.0%

-13.0%

0.0%

-17.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

QoQ YoY

2,2001,800

1,4751,050 1,000 950

OFFICE SUPPLY �� During the third quarter, c.350,000 sq.ft. of space

entered the market, taking the total office stock to 93.2 million sq.ft. The entire space added during the quarter emerged from single owned assets, which reflects a shift in the market from the past two years, when the majority of the new office space was strata owned by multiple owners.

�� The headline vacancy rates are expected to widen further with an addition of one million sq.ft. of office space expected during the course of the year. Locations like Business Bay, Jumeirah Lakes Towers and Dubai Silicon Oasis which have a large proportion of strata space are likely to receive the maximum brunt.

Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Rd.



Al Khail Road

Al Khail Road

daoR mi equS

mm

U

Sheikh Zayed Rd.

Sheikh Zayed Rd.

Sheikh Zayed Rd.

Arabian RanchesDubai

Land

DubaiLand

DubaiLand

DubaiLand

DubaiLand

Nad AlSheba 2

Nad Al Sheba

DubaiSilicon Oasis

InternationalCity

DragonMark

MushrifNational Park

Murdif

FestivalCity

TOSHARJAH

TOHATTA & OMAN

TOAL AIN

TOABU DHABI

TheLagoons

Business Bay Za’abeel

Garhoud

Al Qusais

Port Saeed

Rigga

Ras Al Khor

Al Marqadh

LegendsAl Barari

City of ArabiaGlobal Village

MotorCity

DubaiSport City

DubaiInvestment

Park 1

Jumeirah GolfEstates

Jumeirah GolfEstates

IMPZ

DubaiInvestment

Park 2

JumeirahVillage

JumeirahVillage South

The Meadows

Emirates Hills

The Springs

TheGardens

Jebel Ali Village

Jebel Ali Port

Jebel Ali Freezone

Jebel AliIndustrial Area

Dubai World Central Airport

DiscoveryGardens

JumeirahPark

JumeirahIslands

BarshaHeightsThe

Lakes

TheGreens

Naif

Al Raffa

SatwaJumeirah

Al WaslAl Safa

Umm Suqeim

The PalmJumeirah

Al SufouhMedia / Internet

CityJumeirah Lake

Towers

Dubai Marina

Burj Al Arab

The World

The Palm Deira

Al QuozIndustrial Area

Al Barsha

Al Quoz

Emirates Towers

DIFCBurj Khalifa

Karama

OudMetha

Al Mamzar

Port Rashid

DubaiInternational

Airport

OFFICE SECTOR

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

DIC

& D

MC

Bars

ha

Heig

hts

Ju

meir

ah

Lake T

ow

ers

Bu

sin

ess

Bay

Sh

eik

hZ

ayed

Rd

Do

wn

tow

nD

ub

ai

DIF

C

OFFICE RENTS AED/sq.ft. Q3 2016

AE

D/s

q.ft.

High Low


175

34

0

140

26

5

90

180

65 15

0 190

60

70 11

0

120 17

5

SHEIKH ZAYED RD.RENT = AED 90 - AED 180 /sq.ft.

DIC & DMCRENT = AED 120 - AED 175 /sq.ft.

BARSHA HEIGHTSRENT = AED 70 - AED 110 /sq.ft.AVG. SALE = AED 950 /sq.ft.

JUMEIRAH LAKES TOWERSRENT = AED 60 - AED 190 /sq.ft.AVG. SALE = AED 1,000 /sq.ft.

DOWNTOWN DUBAIRENT = AED 140 - AED 265 /sq.ft.AVG. SALE = AED 2,200 /sq.ft.

DIFCRENT = AED 175 - AED 340 /sq.ft.AVG. SALE = AED 1,800 /sq.ft.

BUSINESS BAYRENT = AED 65 - AED 150 /sq.ft.AVG. SALE = AED 1,050 /sq.ft.


20 21

OFFICE RENTS �� During Q3 2016, majority of the office

leasing enquiries were for smaller sized offices measuring less than 3,000 sq.ft. and primarily from new start-ups and tenants migrating from ageing properties and older business districts.

�� Office rents in the CBD area remained stable for the sixth consecutive quarter, with average rents in Downtown Dubai and along Sheikh Zayed road ranging between AED90-260 per sq.ft. per annum.

�� Office towers which have entered the market over the past 12-18 months across major freehold locations are struggling to achieve desired occupancy levels despite offering attractive rents, ranging between AED 60-190 per sq.ft. per annum.

�� Due to weak demand and high vacancy rates, landlords in the secondary locations are increasingly willing to absorb fit-out charges for tenants with long term commitments.

�� Buildings offering high quality amenities and facilities, good accessibility to public transportation, and strong property management continue to be in high demand from tenants. These office towers are recording healthy occupancy rates despite overall high vacancy rates being witnessed in the strata owned towers.


21

RETAIL SECTOR

PRIME SHOPPING MALL AVERAGE RENTS – Q3 2016

An

ch

ors

Cin

em

a

Hyp

erm

ark

et

Min

i M

ajo

rs

Fla

gsh

ips

Rest

au

ran

ts

Fo

od

Co

urt

Lin

e S

ho

ps

1,2001,1001000900800700600500400300200100

0

AE

D/s

q.ft.


�� The total retail stock of Dubai has reached 34.2 million sq.ft. of Gross Leasable Area (GLA). During the quarter, 430,000 sq.ft. of GLA was added through the opening of the Outlet Village (Meraas), My City Centre Barsha (MAF) and Community retail centre (Nakheel) in Dubai International City.

�� During the quarter, Meraas opened the first of its 10 F&B drive - thru concept ‘Last Exit’, located near to Dubai Parks and Resorts ‘last Exit’ offers 17 food truck outlets with a various mix of hot and cold menus and a sit down diner.

�� Dubai’s leisure offering experience is enhanced with the opening of IMG in Q3 and Legoland shortly, leading to major shopping malls looking to improve their leisure offerings by introducing new brands / experience such as Green Planet and Hub Zero in City Walk, Faby Land in Festival City and refurbishments of magic planets across

MAF Properties. Given the importance of shopping malls in this region, we expect various retail mall operators to evolve and grow their leisure offerings over the next 6-12 months to attract the foot-falls and revenue spend.

�� Shopping mall rental revenues remained relatively unchanged during the quarter, with some pressure from larger retail groups applying cost management initiatives across the country. However, with the winter months expected to see an uplift in retail sales, shopping mall rentals are expected to remain stable into the early quarters of 2017.

�� Whilst retail properties continue to provide stable returns, there are increasing signs of property management depriving operational and capital expenditure to improve returns which if continued over time is only going to drive property value and returns down.

RETAIL SUMMARY

22


22


0

10

20

30

40

24.5 27.1 27.9 28.4 28.7 30.0 32.6 33.7 34.2

2.1

36.2

2.7

Dubai Retail Mall Stock Q3 2016

GL

A s

q.ft.

(Mill

ion

s)

Stock Expected - *Includes all retail malls with a GLA greater than 25,000 sq.ft.


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 2017

2.6

2.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 1.31.1 0.4

23


23

HOSPITALITY SECTOR

HOTEL SUMMARY �� Supply continues to grow: With the addition

of 1,300 rooms in Q3 2016, the hospitality stock of Dubai has surpassed the 100,000 mark, taking the total hotel supply to 100,929 rooms and apartments. Provided construction delays are minimal, we expect an addition 1,500 rooms during the remainder of the year.

�� Dubai hospitality sector continues to be a strong performing market globally: Whilst we expect occupancy rates to remain around 75% to 80% for the remainder of the year, the room rates are anticipated to further

soften over the short to medium term, with major operators competing for occupancy and growth in F&B revenue. Although the room rates have dropped by 7+% year-on-year, Dubai room rates are still performing well in comparison to hotel markets globally.

�� Family entertainment offerings expanding package tour opportunities: With the new era of theme parks now starting to open in Dubai, we expect to see selective hotels adapting pricing and offerings towards a greater family focus and increase in children friendly

DUBAI HOTEL ROOMS SUPPLY (2012 - 2017)

No

. o

f R

oo

ms

('0

00

s)

Existing Supply New Supply


Q3 2016 Q4 2016 2017H1 201620152012 2013 2014

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

41

84.7 2.9 1.29 1.8

79 80 8492 97 100 101

8.0

103

24


24

DUBAI HOTELS PERFORMANCE - 2016 YTD

ADR RevPAR


Occupancy

100.0%90.0%80.0%70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0%

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Jan

-14

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

-15

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

-16

Feb

Mar

Ap

ril

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

AE

D

Occu

pan

cy

HOTEL NAME LOCATION STAR DATE NUMBER OF KEYS

The Westin Sheikh Zayed Road 5 star Q3 2016 1004

Al Khoory Atrium Hotel Al Barsha 3 star Q3 2016 227

White Sand Hotel Deira 1 star Q3 2016 58

HOTEL NAME LOCATION STAR DATE NUMBER OF KEYS

Jumeirah Al Naseem Jumeirah 5 star Q4 2016 430

Rove City Centre Port Saeed 4 star Q4 2016 270

Nikki Beach & Resort Pearl Jumeirah 5 star Q4 2016 132

The Address Boulevard Downtown Dubai 5 star Q1 2017 196

HOTELS - NEW SUPPLY Q3 2016

SAMPLE OF UPCOMING SUPPLY

25


25

DEFINITIONS & METHODOLOGY

RESEARCH STUDY AREA

The geographic extent of the study area covers the key districts in Dubai.

RESIDENTIAL

New residential developments are classified as delivered and thus entered into the new supply category when they are made available for occupation. This is verified via a combination of site inspections and discussion with the developer and hence our supply numbers do take into consideration the phased release of large projects.

Rental and sales trend analysis is based on transactional data derived from the MPM Properties Agency team and data sourced from developers and owners.

OFFICES

New office developments are classified as delivered and thus entered into the new supply category when they are available for tenant fit-outs.

Given the general lack of transparency in the local market rents quoted are headline rents, thus exclude any rent free period of other financial

incentives that may have been negotiated between the parties. The rents quoted are also exclusive of service charges.

RETAIL

New retail developments are classified as delivered and thus entered into the new supply category when the first units are open and trading.

Our classification of malls is based on our own assessment having regard to size and the catchment area which the mall typically penetrates.

HOSPITALITY

New hotels are classified as delivered and thus entered into the new supply category when they are opened and trading. All trading performance data is provided by DTCM.

FUTURE SUPPLY PROJECTIONS

Our future supply projections across all sectors are based on a combination of regular site inspections and discussions with developers.

BESPOKE CLIENT RESEARCH ADDING VALUE TO YOUR PROPERTY INTERESTSThe ADIB Real Estate Services team covers all sectors of the real estate market. We provide bespoke market research to our valued clients to meet their specific requirements.

We provide reports, information and presentations derived from primary market data that directly assist our clients to save or make money from real estate and shape strategies to enhance value.

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources that MPM Properties believes to be reliable, however, no warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. MPM Properties will not be held responsible for any third-party contributions. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute MPM Properties, as of the date of this report and are subject

to change without notice. Figures contained in this report are derived from a basket of locations highlighted in this report and therefore represent a snapshot of the Dubai market. Due care and attention has been used in the preparation of forecast information. However, actual results may vary from forecasts and any variation may be materially positive or negative. Forecasts, by their very nature, involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances which are beyond MPM Properties’ control. For a full in-depth study of the market, please contact MPM Properties team.

26


26

A collaborative team providing our integrated services

BALAJI NAGARAJ MSC MRICS Head of Residential Valuation Dubai & Northern Emirates T: +971 (0)4 371 9463 M: +971 (0)55 196 2396 [email protected]

PAUL MAISFIELD BSC (HONS) MRICS CEO T: +971 (0)2 610 0545 M: +971 (0)50 660 9437 [email protected]

ABDULLAH SAID AL KUWEITI Business Development Director T: +971 (0)2 610 1554 M: +971 (0)50 623 5854 [email protected]

MOHAMMED FAHEEM Manager Strategic Advisory & Research T: +971 (0)4 371 9471 M: +971 (0)50 384 5220 [email protected]

WAHIDA KARAMA Head of Property Operations T: +971 (02) 610 0435 M: +971 (0)50 765 7679 [email protected]

FRANK O’DWYER MBA (Hons); BEng.COO T: +971 (0)2 610 0402 M: +971 (0)50 812 1070 [email protected]

DOMINIC BARLOW Head of Retail, Hospitality & Leisure T: +971 (0)2 510 0655 M: +971 (0)56 288 1458 [email protected]

JUBRAN AL HASHMI Head of Property Services T: +971 (0)2 610 0232 M: +971 (0)50 122 0041 [email protected]

VINEET KUMAR Director of Agency – Dubai T: +971 (0)4 371 9462 M: +971 (0)50 651 6491 [email protected]

VAIBHAV SHARMA MCOM; MDBA Director of Strategic Advisory and Research T: +971 (0)2 412 8914 M: +971 (0)50 660 9295 [email protected]

ALI ABDULLAH ABDUL RAHMAN Acting Regional Head – Northern Emirates T: 971 (0)6 597 2514 M: +971 (0)50 656 2486 [email protected]

MOHAMED AL ZOUBI Head of Development Advisory BSc Civil Engineering T: +971 (0)2 610 0564 M: +971 (0)50 310 3570 [email protected]

YOUSEF AL ZAROONI Regional Head – Al Ain T: +971 (0)3 708 8636 M: +971 (0)50 600 1002 [email protected]

VIDHI SHAH MBA (FINANCE) Commercial Valuations Manager T: +971 (0)4 371 9461 M: +971 (0)50 459 2609 [email protected]

27

SAMPLE OF UPCOMING PROJECTS – Q3 2016RESIDENTIAL

RETAIL

HOTEL

3 ESCAN TOWER DUBAI MARINA

1 MURABA PALM JUMEIRAH

2 AL SHAFAR RESIDENCES BUSINESS BAY

4 EMIRATES AIRLINE STAFF ACCOM.

OFFICE

4 TAMANI ART OFFICE TOWER BUSINESS BAY

1 FIRST AVENUE MALL MOTOR CITY

2 THE RIBBON MOTOR CITY

3 THE POINTE PALM JUMEIRAH

4 DUBAI MALL EXPANSION ZABEEL

1 THE ADDRESS BLVD. DOWNTOWN

2 DUSIT EMIRATES SARAY PALM JUMEIRAH

3 JUMEIRAH AL NASEEM JUMEIRAH

4 ROVE CITY CENTRE PORT SAEED

1 PALAZZO VENEZIA MAJAN

2 THE COURT BUSINESS BAY

3 THE OPUS BUSINESS BAY

SUPPLY - PHOTO GALLERY


28 29

NEW SUPPLY – Q3 2016RESIDENTIAL

RETAIL

HOTEL

3 SILICON GATE DUBAI SILICON OASIS

4 WINDSOR RESIDENCE DUBAILAND

2 AZIZI YASAMINE AL FURJAN

1 AZIZI FEIROUZ AL FURJAN

OFFICE

1 THE EDGE TECOM

3 OFFICE BUILDING UM AL SHEIF

1 MY CITY CENTRE AL BARSHA

2 THE OUTLET VILLAGE JEBEL ALI

2 COMMUNITY CENTRE INTERNATIONAL CITY

1 AL KHOORY HOTEL APARTMENTS AL BARSHA

2 WESTIN AL HABTOOR CITY

3 WHITE SAND DEIRA

2 BUTTERFLY TECOM

4 OFFICE BUILDING UM AL SHEIF

TOABU DHABI

Jebel Ali Port

Jebel Ali FreezoneBarshaHeights

Al Mamzar

Al Qusais

12

3

4

23

1

3

3

4

1

2

3

3

1

4

2

2

1

1

42

3

4

2

1

1

2

3

4

Residential

Offices

Retail

Hotels

Q3 2016 NEW SUPPLY

Residential

Offices

Retail

Hotels

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Q3 2016

30 31

INTEGRATED SERVICES COVERING THE FULL PROPERTY LIFECYCLE

Property Management

Investment Advisory

Project Management and ESCROW

Research & Strategic AdvisoryAgency (Sales & Leasing)

Valuation

PAUL MAISFIELD BSC (HONS) MRICS CEO T: +971 (0)2 610 0545 M: +971 (0)50 660 9437 [email protected]

VAIBHAV SHARMA MCOM; MDBA Director of Strategic Advisory and Research T: +971 (0)2 412 8914 M: +971 (0)50 660 9295 [email protected]

ABU DHABI HEAD OFFICE 6th Floor, Al Wahda Tower P.O Box 114686 Abu Dhabi

Tel. +971 2 610 0252Fax. +971 2 610 0514 www.mpmproperties.ae

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Tel. +971 (0)4 371 9462

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Tel. +971 (0)3 703 9521

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Tel. +971 (0)6 597 2555

Enhancing value for individual & institutional property owners:

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Aiding developers and investors to maximize value:

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We cover all sectors, including residential, commercial, industrial, retail, and land.

Bankable studies for your real estate and business needs:

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