dutch bargain or dutch treat?
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Reference projections for Energy and Emissions in the Netherlands. Dutch bargain or Dutch treat?. Why projections ?. Assessing whether the Netherlands will meet the national emission ceilings If not, what further measures/policies are needed? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Dutch bargain
or
Dutch treat?
Reference projections for Energy and Emissions in the Netherlands
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 2
Why projections ?
Assessing whether the Netherlands will meet the national emission ceilings
If not, what further measures/policies are needed?
Input for modeling future health and ecosystem impacts.
Latter is used for spatial planning procedures.
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 3
How projections ?
projection ≠ prediction; projections are scenario’s
Method:
• Eproj = Aproj * ef proj
• Eproj = possible future Emission
• Aproj = possible future Activity
• ef proj = possible future Emission Factor
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 4
Scenario’s envisaged
Pri
vate
resp
on
sib
ility
International co-operation
National sovereignty
Strong EuropeSE
Pu
blic
resp
on
sib
ility
TransatlanticMarket
TM
Global EconomyGE
RegionalCommunities
RC
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 5
History of projections
• Lessons from the past
• Late eighties “Concerns for tomorrow”
• 1989-2006: 6 Environmental outlooks
• Quality of projections? What were the
problems?
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 6
Historical trend
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 7
Policy and measures
starting point is ‘concrete’ policy, meaning
• sufficiently operational, • accompanied by instruments,• funded,• laid down in an official document and• for which powers have been granted.
• Following this CLE, an Additional Measures scenario is constructed
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 8
Overview of policy: transport
• Emission standards for (road) transport
• BPM (car and motorcycle); purchase tax differentiation by relative energy efficiency
• sulphur level standards for fuels
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 9
Overview of policy: agriculture
• Compulsory use of manure storage covers• Compulsory low-emission application of manure to
land• Low-emission livestock housing• Use standards (manure policy)• BEES1 to reduce NOx emissions in glasshouse
horticulture
• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 10
Overview of policy: other
• NOx ETS
• 1BEES • Dutch Emissions Guidelines (NeR) • IPPC-BAT• Oil to gas fuel switch• NMVOC Reduction Plan• Solvents Decree and• Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions
• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 11
Measures in the pipeline
• SO2 agreements with refineries and energy producers
• IPPC-BAT• Oil to gas fuel switch• NMVOC Reduction Plan• Solvents Decree and• Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions
• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 12
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 13
Latest projections
• Reference Projections Energy and Emissions 2005-2020
• Two scenarios picked for reference projections: • Global Economy and Strong Europe.
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 14
Input for projections
• growth factors for different sectors from CPB (economical), LEI (agricultural), FOI (industry), ECN (energy) and NEAA (population, socio-economic, etc.)
• technological advancements from various international and national institutes (e.g. BREF documents)
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 15
2050 Workshop
• request for ‘aspirational’ scenario for 2050. • TFIAM seeking co-operation with other groups. • national experts available who could share
experiences on longer term scenario building ‘backcasting’ the necessary steps.
• ‘2050-workshop’ end 2008 with goal to publish a paper in spring 2009.
• link with climate modeling strategies
please contact [email protected]
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 16
Thank you !