DR. TARAS KUZIO, CIUS, UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA

The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement: Why Voting the Right Way in the Dutch Referendum Matters

Ukrainian Support for European Integration

1. Ukraine has held free and fair elections since 2004 and is the most democratic country in the CIS.

2. 2004 and 2013-2014: Orange Revolution and Euromaidan showed high levels of civil society and support for European integration.

3. 2014-2016: Ukraine signs Association Agreement and DCFTA. Visa free regime to follow.

4. Two thirds of Ukrainians support EU membership and half support NATO membership.

5. EU and NATO have not offered membership.

EU-Ukraine: Enlargement-Light1. Ukraine has sought EU membership since 1998 and NATO membership since

2002.2. The EU has never offered membership to any former Soviet republic (outside the 3 Baltic

states).

3. The 2009 Eastern Partnership (EP) was created for 6 former Soviet states, 3 of who are interested in pursuing Europan integration (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova).

4. The EP offers through an Association Agreement, DCFTA & visa free regime: economic, trade and political integration without membership.

NATO-Ukraine Ukraine supported all rounds of NATO enlargement since the 1990s.First CIS country to join NATO PfP in 1994 & became one of its most active members.Very active in international peacekeeping under UN, NATO, EU and OSCE.Ukraine has active bilateral security programme’s ‘In the Spirit of PfP’.2002: Ukraine officially declared it is seeking NATO membership.2005: Intensified Dialogue on Membership Issues. 2008: NATO refused to offer a MAP to Georgia & Ukraine.50% of Ukrainians support NATO membership.

Viktor Yanukovych, Putin and the EU

PUTIN BRIBES YANUKOVCH TO TURN AWAY FROM THE EU REVOLUTION OF DIGNITY (EUROMAIDAN)

Murder in the EuromaidanHEAVENLY HUNDRED

(DEAD PROTESTERS)YANUKOVYCH REGIME STOLE $70-100BN.

Putin’s Russia: NATO and EU

Russia until 2008 only opposed NATO enlargement. Threatened Sweden with military response if it joined NATO.

From 2010-2012, Russia is also opposed to EU enlagement into the Western Balkans and CIS.

Growth of Russian nationalism, Soviet nostalgia, anti-Westernism, conspiraymania (democratic revolutions);

Spring 2014: Russian annexation of Crimea & covert intervention in east Ukraine to destroy legitimacy of presidential elections & thwart European integration.

RUSSIA, EU & NATO EU-RUSSIA TUG OF WAR

Russian Annexation of the Crimea & Invasion of Ukraine:

Biggest European Crisis Since World War II

SURROUNDED INVASION

Russian Deceit & Western Sanctions

NO APOLOGY OR ACCOUNTABILITY FOR MH17

WESTERN LEADERS NO LONGER BELIEVE RUSSIAN LEADERS

Bellingcat: Russia’s 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade Downed MH17  

1. The order to move the Buk missile system across the border was likely made at top levels of the Russian military hierarchy, the Kremlin, and even by President Vladimir Putin himself.

2. The Russian Defense Ministry "bears the main responsibility for the MH17 tragedy, shared with the military commanders and leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.”

MH17 - Potential Suspects and Witnesses from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (February 2016

Putin’s Russian Regime: Authoritarian, Fascist,

ImperialistREGIME TYPE INDICATORS

1. Opposition destroyed and leaders assassinated.

2. Media controlled.

3. No free elections.

4. Cult of machismo leader Putin.

5. Massive Cold War era propaganda machine.

6. War crimes committed in Chechnya, Ukraine and Syria.

CULT OF CRIMINAL STALIN

Western Sanctions and Oil Prices

EU DIVIDED AND WEAK

Institutional: difficulty to reach decisions and consensus.

Regional and cultural divisions in the EU towards Russia.

Money talks: Londongrad, Cyprus, Austria, Switzerland, Monaco, Lichtenstein.

Energy: EU dependency, ex-German Chancellors & corruption.

USA

Obama less interested in Ukraine & foreign policy than Clinton or Bush.

US & NATO tougher than the EU.

Will the next US president back the US Congress and supply military assistance & intelligence to Ukraine?

Putin’s Strategic Objective 1: Destroy NATO

Are the 3 Baltic States Next? If yes, would Russian hybrid war

trigger NATO’s article 5?

Putin’s Strategic Objective 2:

Destroy the EU "Together, Russia and the Assad regime are deliberately weaponising migration in an attempt to overwhelm European structures and break European resolve.”

"These indiscriminate weapons used by both Bashar al-Assad, and the non-precision use of weapons by the Russian forces, I can't find any other reason for them other than to cause refugees to be on the move and make them someone else's problem.”

Gen Philip Breedlove, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe and the head of the US

European Command

Putin’s Alliance with European and US Nationalists and Neo-Nazi’s

Le Pen, Trump and Putin Riding

into the New Sunset

The Dutch 6 April 2016 Referendum:

5 Questions We Should Ask1. What are the unclear motives why Ukraine has been brought into the Dutch quarrel with

Brussels?2. Putin’s goals are to destroy NATO and the EU. Why should the Dutch assist Vladimir Putin in

breaking up these 2 important organisations?3. Millions of Ukrainians protested and 100 ‘Heavenly Hundred’ became the first to die for the EU.

Would not a Dutch vote of ‘No’ turn your back on them and their dreams for a better future? 4. The EU has assisted states in overcoming post-colonialism (Ireland), fascism and military junta’s

(Portugal, Spain, Italy) and totalitarian communism (eastern Europe). Why should the Dutch also not back the EU’s promotion of democratic values, human rights, rule of law, economic growth and trade in Ukraine?

5. Would a democratic, less corrupt and economically attractive Ukraine not be of interest to Dutch business and trade?