dynamic hurricane season prediction experiment …...hurricane season prediction experiment with...
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Dynamic Hurricane Season PredictionExperiment with the NCEP CFS CGCM
Jae-Kyung E. Schemm and Lindsey LongClimate Prediction Center,
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Workshop on High Resolution Climate ModelingAugust 10-14, 2009
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Outline
• Description of the CFS experiment• Datasets Used• Analysis of tropical storm statistics
Focus on the northern hemisphere basinsStatistics and performance evaluation
• Summary
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Hurricane season prediction experiment with T382 CFS
1. One of the FY08/09 CTB internal projects - collaborative effort between the NCEP CPC and EMC
2. AGCM - 2007 operational NCEP GFS in T382/L64 resolutionLSM - Noah LSMOGCM - GFDL MOM3
3. All runs initialized with NCEP/DOE R2 and NCEP GODAS.Initial conditions at 0Z, Apr. 19-23 for 1981-2008. Forecastsextended to December 1.
4. Tropical cyclone detection and tracking method based onCarmago and Zebiak (2002)
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Datasets
CFS hindcasts at T382• April 19th-23rd initial conditions
• Output at every 6 hours• 1981-2008, 28 years• Appropriate ICs for CPC operational Hurricane
Season Outlook issued in mid-May Observations from the HURDAT and JTWC Best
Track Dataset• Tropical depressions and subtropical storms are not
included in storm counts.
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CPC Hurricane season outlook for theAtlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins
1. Probabilistic season types - above, near andbelow normal
2. Ranges in the number of named storms,hurricanes and major hurricanes
3. Range in the ACE index
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Four NH Ocean Basins
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Western North Pacific North Indian
Atlantic Eastern North Pacific
Examples of Storm Tracks for 4 NH Basins
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AtlanticBasin
Atlantic Tropical StormsMay-Nov, 1981-2007, T382
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EasternPacificBasin
Eastern Pacific Tropical StormsMay-Nov, 1981-2008, T382
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WesternPacificBasin
Western Pacific Tropical StormsMay-Nov, 1981-2008, T382
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JJA Nino 3.4 SST Index
0.68April Ensm 50.64IC=04230.57IC=04220.68IC=04210.67IC=04200.72IC=0419
CorrelationsT382
Red = Statistically Significant at 0.95
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0.71April Ensm 50.67IC=04230.67IC=04220.73IC=04210.64IC=04200.63IC=0419
CorrelationsT382
Red = Statistically Significant at 0.95
JJA Atlantic MDR SST Index
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0.70April Ensm 50.69IC=04230.68IC=04220.66IC=04210.54IC=04200.43IC=0419
CorrelationsT382
Red = Statistically Significant at 0.95
JJA Atlantic MDR Shear Index
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0.43IC=0422
0.61April Ensm 50.54IC=0423
0.35IC=04210.33IC=04200.44IC=0419
TotalCorrelations
Anomalous Number of TC: Atlantic Basin
Red = StatisticallySignificant at 0.95
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0.49IC=0422
0.62April Ensm 50.59IC=0423
0.28IC=04210.58IC=04200.47IC=0419
TotalCorrelations
Atlantic Basin ACE Index
Red = StatisticallySignificant at 0.95
% o
f Nor
mal
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0.15IC=0422
-0.04April Ensm 5-0.07IC=0423
-0.02IC=0421-0.03IC=0420-0.04IC=0419
TotalCorrelations
Anomalous Number of TC: Eastern N. Pacific
Red = StatisticallySignificant at 0.95
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0.53IC=0422
0.46April Ensm 50.14IC=0423
0.01IC=04210.47IC=04200.40IC=0419
TotalCorrelations
Anomalous Number of TC: Western N. Pacific
Red = StatisticallySignificant at 0.95
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0.47IC=0422
0.50April Ensm 50.34IC=0423
0.33IC=04210.51IC=04200.43IC=0419
TotalCorrelations
WNP Basin ACE Index
Red = StatisticallySignificant at 0.95
% o
f Nor
mal
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0.47IC=0422
0.50April Ensm 50.34IC=0423
0.33IC=04210.51IC=04200.43IC=0419
TotalCorrelations
WNP Basin ACE Index
Red = StatisticallySignificant at 0.95
% o
f Nor
mal
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.Summary
CFS in T382 resolution exhibits robust climatological seasonal cycle of tropical cyclones over three NH basins.
Warming trend and intensification of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin captured in the CFS hindcasts.
Fair level of skill in predicting interannual variability of seasonal storm activities for the Atlantic and West. N. Pacific basins.
Further diagnostics continue.
Provided input for the 2009 CPC Hurricane Season Outlook with real time prediction runs.
Impending completion of the NCEP CFS Reanalysis will provide more compatible initial conditions for future evaluation.