Dynamic Interactions among People, Livestock, & Savanna Ecosystems under Climate Change

(or) The Eaclipse Project

Gopal Alagarswamy, Jeff Andresen, David Campbell, Robert Glew, Nichole Goble, Chao Han, Mario Herrero, Sarah Hession, Stanley Karanja, Dong-Yun Kim, Joseph Maitima,

Salome Misana, Nathan Moore, Simon Mugatha, Claude Mong’ong’o, Simon Mwansasu, Almaz Naizghi,Joseph Ogutu, Jennifer Olson, Jiaguo Qi, Chuan Qin,

Mohammed Said, Thomas Smucker, Philip Thornton, Edna Wangui, Matthew Williams, and Pius Yanda.

NSF BCS 0308420, CNH 0709671Rockefeller Foundation

AAG 2010 Washington DC

Background Rationale• Under climate change, savanna ecosystems will be one of the

most negatively impacted ecosystems with large extents reaching ‘tipping points’ of dramatic changes in physical conditions, functions, and services.

• Vegetation shifts will affect the number and type of wild and domestic animals that can be supported.

• Such shifts will also have a profound impact on livelihood systems dependent on livestock and savanna natural resources.

• Project based on the results of the earlier Climate Land Interaction Project (CLIP)

AAG 2010 Washington DC

Results of the Climate Land Interaction Project (CLIP)• More accurate land surface parameterization can

improve the performance of regional climate simulations.

• Land use/cover change can have a marked impact on regional climate.

• The impacts of these changes on human and natural systems can vary greatly widely within the same region.

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Land Use Change Forcings Land cover in 2000 Land cover in 2050 (projected)

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Differences in Temperature (RCM)

Climate Change LCLUC Combined EffectsEffects through 2050 Effects

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Differences in Precipitation (RCM)

Climate Change Land Cover/Land Use Synergistic EffectsEffects Change (LCLUC) Effects

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Difference in maize yields due to GHG and LUC 2000 to 2050

Green=increase in yieldsBrown=decline in yields

AAG 2010 Washington DC

Overarching Question:

• What are the key characteristics of and dynamics between coupled human-biophysical systems in the East African savannas under climate change?

Climate Change•Temperature•Precipitation•Droughts•Floods

SavannaVegetation

Local level•Ecosystem structure (spp., composition, ratio woody/ herbaceous)•Forage quant & quality (palatability)

Regional level•Length of growing period•Ecosystem structure•Productivity

Temporal & spatial lag effects, non-linear response. Resilience to droughts

Land ManagementGrazing Scale:• Intensity• Mobility - Household• Length of Orbit - CommunityFire Frequency - RegionalLand Use

Livelihood Systems

- Non-farm

- Crops

- Livestock

Income diversification strategies within dynamic socio-economic system.Household Level decisions on: herd size and composition, grazing strategy, drought response

Landscape Level: fire frequency, land use conversion

Figure 1. The savanna human-land-climate system loop.

AAG 2010 Washington DC

Objective Questions

• How does savanna vegetation respond to a changing climate?

• What are the combinatory effects of human land management and climatic change impacts on savanna vegetation?

• Does land management have a sufficiently large impact on savanna vegetation to alter the local or regional climate?

• How are livelihood systems of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists responding to climate change in the context of the evolving socioeconomic systems?

AAG 2010 Washington DC

Land Cover and EACLIPSE Domain, Study Sites in East Africa

AAG 2010 Washington DC

Approach• Combination of local- and regional-scale activities, historical

and projected future periods• Analyses of regional scale information on vegetation-climate

interaction over time and space in semi-arid and arid environments

• Development of spatio-temporal analytical approaches to identify linear and nonlinear temporal patterns and spatial patterns in a multivariate context

• The use of coupled climate-vegetation models to determine whether land management change within a land cover class (savanna) has a discernable impact on local and regional climate

AAG 2010 Washington DC

Approach (cont’d)

• Analyses of how vulnerable households adapt to increasing frequencies of extreme events, and identification of critical thresholds beyond which reliance on natural resources is no longer an option

• Development of a comprehensive methodology using publicly available global datasets and models to examine climate/land interactions that can be applied to other regions and ecological systems

AAG 2010 Washington DC

Educational Activities

• Project provides opportunities for educational collaboration for teachers at university and K-12 levels.

• An educational module based on the project findings will be developed and taught at the undergraduate level.

• A master teacher from geography and environmental sciences to will be recruited to develop interactive human-environment curriculum materials for use in Michigan high schools.

Additional EACLIPSE AAG papersAuthor: Sarah Hession (MSU),Title: Prediction in Data-Scarce Environments: Introducing New and Improved

Spatially Explicit MethodsWhen: 4/17/10 at 2:40

Authors: Matthew Williams, Nicolle Goble, and Dong-Yun Kim (VPI)Title: A new strategy for modeling time series data with structural changeWhen: Wednesday 4/14/10 from 4:40-6:20PM

Authors:Dong-Yun Kim and Chao Han (VPI)Title: A Change Point Analysis of Drought Frequency in East AfricaWhen: 4/15/10, from 4:40 PM - 6:20 PM

Author: Elizabeth Edna Wangui (Ohio Univ), Title: Performance politics and the spaces of negotiation: Pastoralist livelihood

change and new gender roles. When: 4/14/10, 3:00

http://eaclipse.msu.edu

Questions?