dynamic pricing and revenue management ......dynamic pricing and revenue management: taking it to...
TRANSCRIPT
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DYNAMIC PRICING AND REVENUE MANAGEMENT: TAKING IT TO THE NEXT LEVEL
Lori Kleinerman, Director of Marketing & Public Relations, Goodman Theatre, Chicago, IL
Darcy Lunceford, Director of Marketing & Public Relations, Shakespeare Theatre Company, Washington, DC
Nicola Rees, Associate Director of Individual Giving, Membership, San Francisco Museum of Modern Art
Steven Roth, President, The Pricing Institute, Weston, MA
November 13, 2011
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Today’s Agenda
• Introduction • Pricing Perceptions, Steven • “A Christmas Carol,” Lori • “The Steins Collect,” Nicola • “Candide”, Darby • Q&A
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Pricing Principles
• People exchange money and time in expectation of receiving value in return
– That value is more perceived than real – Perceptions of value are almost unique to each customer for each event
• Differentiated prices work when there is a distinct, perceived difference in value that motivates behavior
• Price differentiation allows cultural organizations to achieve multiple objectives
– Optimize volume of attendance – Promote accessibility – Maximize income
• Cultural organizations have a range of variables available to adjust prices in order to achieve multiple objectives; including revenue management
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The Psychology Of Price
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Pricing Strategy Is Determined By Four Factors, And Your Objectives In Relation To Them
Your costs (financial objectives)
pricing strategy
Your customers
(social objectives)
What you offer (artistic objectives)
Competition / marketplace
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But Really, It’s All About Value
Your costs (financial objectives)
value-based pricing
Your customers What you offer
Competition / marketplace
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Motivations For Attending And Price/Value Implications
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What Are You Telling The Audience?
Price break Price
I $100
II $80
III $65
IV $50
V $30
VI $20
What behavior do your prices encourage? • Range from top to bottom • How many prices in
between • Differences between
prices
All affect the attractiveness of each price
Price break Price/Difference
I $100
$20
II $80
$15
III $65
$15
IV $50
$20
V $30
$10
VI $20
-
Price break Price/Difference +%
I $100
$20 25%
II $80
$15 23%
III $65
$15 30%
IV $50
$20 67%
V $30
$10 50%
VI $20
- -
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“What’s the Best Seat?” “And Can I Get it?” (Illustrative)
Zone Price Seats Subs Single I
$180 160
II
$150 180
III
$120 250
IV
$90 400
V
$60 200
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MAXIMIZING REVENUE THROUGH VARIABLE AND DYNAMIC PRICING
FOR GOODMAN THEATRE’S
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“Why does Scrooge love Rudolph the Red-Nosed
Reindeer? Because every buck is dear to him.”
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• A Christmas Carol (ACC) is one production Goodman Theatre counts on to produce consistent revenue.
• Over the past five years, total sales have been level; average capacity has approached 90%.
• Average price and yield has kept ahead of inflation; income continued to climb.
• Despite strong performance, we suspected there was more we could do to increase sales revenue in a material way.
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Season Year Performances Total Tix Sold Avg. Tix Sold Avg. % Capacity Sold Avg. Revenue
Avg. Price (starting price
in 2010/11) Avg. Yield
2005-06 48 36,816 751 88% $33,924 $46.39 $44.14
2006-07 53 39,655 748 87% $35,100 $49.14 $46.50
2007-08 56 40,551 724 85% $35,412 $50.11 $48.09
2008-09 53 40,357 761 89% $37,166 $51.23 $48.34
2009-10 54 40,941 758 89% $38,243 $52.65 $49.71
2010-11 54 40,197 744 87% $39,633 $54.21 $52.12
Total sales have been relatively level. Average price/yield continued to climb.
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To explain our journey to pricing redemption, it makes sense to look at the past, the present and the future of this 34-year old “annuity”… …
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THE GHOST OF CHRISTMAS PAST
(What we’ve done for a very long time)
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THE GHOST OF CHRISTMAS PRESENT
(2010)
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THE GHOST OF CHRISTMAS FUTURE
(The best is yet to come!)
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THE PAST
• Variable pricing based on historical demand: • Weekends in December and week before X-mas priced highest • Previews in mid-November, mid-week performances, student group
matinees and post X-mas shows priced lowest
• Two pricing zones in house (A and B) • Special discounts:
• For “lower yield/capacity performances,” group sales, student groups
• Accessibility objectives: • $25 Sundays in A and B
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THE PRESENT (2010) • Demand-based pricing (DBP) added
– Late November, 2 weeks into the run – Ticket prices had potential to increase by $10 in A;
$5 in B
• Positive outcome to DBP motivated us to contact The Pricing Institute
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THE PRESENT (2010) • Most of the 2010 run came close to selling out, but price increases were too little and too
late to have a substantial impact on yield » The Pricing Institute
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In 2010-2011 most of the run was close to selling out, but price changes were too little and too late to significantly impact yield
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THE FUTURE
“Ghost of the Future, I fear you more than any specter I have seen. But as I know your purpose is to do me good… I am prepared to bear your
company, and do it with a thankful heart.” - Scrooge, A Christmas Carol
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THE FUTURE • Implement revenue management/demand-based-pricing earlier
with fewer, bigger jumps • Adjust pricing:
– Raise most starting prices, particularly for best-selling performances – Minimize gap between A and B pricing
– Maintain lower mid-week prices, especially for groups • Include re-scaling and inventory management opportunities
– Introduce an AA section (three-tiered pricing; not limited to ACC) • Create two different house configurations:
– Ratio of AA seats to A seats would change for best-selling time periods
• Anticipate a revenue increase of 5%!
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2010 Performance Data – Quartiled High Cap Low Yield High Cap High Yield
Perf Cap (>90%) Avg Yield (<$60) Perf Cap (>90%) Avg Yield (> $60)
Sa 11/27 8:00 91% $58.62 Su 12/19 6:30 98% $72.98
Fr 11/26 8:00 94% $58.28 Th 12/23 7:30 98% $72.87
Fr 12/10 8:00 96% $58.03 Fr 12/24 2:00 96% $72.78
Sa 11/27 2:00 92% $58.01 Tu 12/21 2:00 97% $72.70
Su 11/28 2:00 93% $57.07 Th 12/23 2:00 97% $72.69
Su 12/26 2:00 94% $56.99 Su 12/19 2:00 92% $72.59
Fr 12/3 8:00 93% $56.15 Sa 12/18 2:00 93% $72.58
Su 12/26 6:30 96% $52.21 Sa 12/18 8:00 97% $72.52
Tu 12/28 7:30 94% $39.33 Sa 12/11 2:00 96% $72.38
Tu 12/28 2:00 95% $38.53 We 12/22 7:30 96% $72.38
We 11/24 7:30 93% $37.13 We 12/22 2:00 97% $72.18
We 12/29 7:30 94% $37.05 Sa 12/11 8:00 96% $71.97
Th 12/30 7:30 94% $36.93 Fr Dec 17 8:00 91% $71.72
Th 12/10 2:00 96% $36.52 Tu 12/21 7:30 96% $71.20
Sa 11/21 2:00 94% $35.09 Su 12/05 2:00 93% $67.23
Su 12/5 6:30 96% $33.98 Sa 12/4 8:00 96% $67.12
Tu 12/14 12:00 96% $32.39 Sa 12/4 2:00 96% $66.77
Sa 11/20 8:00 92% $31.73
Sa 11/20 2:00 96% $29.93
Wed 12/1 12:00 98% $27.96
Low Cap High Yield Low Cap Low Yield
Perf Cap (< 90%) Avg Yield (> $60) Perf Cap (< 90%) Avg Yield (<$60)
Su Dec 12 2:00 81% $69.79 We Dec 15 7:30 70% $57.47
Tu Dec 14 7:30 55% $68.12 Th Dec 16 7:30 85% $56.07
Su Dec 12 6:30 85% $68.00 Th Dec 9 7:30 84% $37.97
We Dec 8 12:00 75% $37.84
We Dec 8 7:30 71% $37.27
Th Dec 2 2:00 59% $36.49
Fr Dec 31 2:00 3% $36.11
Th Dec 2 7:30 83% $35.07
Tu Nov 23 7:30 88% $33.74
Su Nov 21 6:30 89% $33.32
Th Dec 9 12:00 87% $33.20
Tu Nov 30 12:00 66% $31.56
Fr Nov 19 8:00 71% $30.09
Su Nov 28 6:30 28% $25.51
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Consider Pricing by Segment Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
11/19 8:00
11/20 2:00 8:00
11/21 2;00 6:30
11/22 11/23 7:30
11/24 7:30
11/25 11/26 8:00
11/27 2:00 8:00
11/28 2;00 6:30
11/29 11/30 12:00
12/1 12:00
12/2 2:00 7:30
12/3 8:00
12/4 2:00 8:00
12/5 2:00 6:30
12/6 12/7 12/8 12:00 7:30
12/9 12:00 7:30
12/10 2:00 8:00
12/11 2:00 8:00
12/12 2:00 6:30
12/13 1214 12:00 7:30
12/15 7:30
12/16 7:30
12/17 8:00
12/18 2:00 8:00
12/19 2:00 6:30
12/20 12/21 2:00 7:30
12/22 2:00 7:30
12/23 2:00 7:30
12/24 2:00
12/25
12/26 2:00 6:30
12/27 12/28 2:00 7:30
12/29 7:30
12/30 7:30
12/31 2:00
high avg. yield (>$60), high capacity (>90%) high avg. yield (>$60), low capacity (<90%) low avg. yield (<$60), high capacity (>90%) low avg. yield (<$60), low capacity (<90%)
In between
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Adapted # Times Sold Hotseat
Hotseat Index™ – number of times issued (54 performances of Christmas Carol 2010-11)
Issued 54 times
53 times
51 – 52 times
46 – 50 times
36 – 45 times
<36 times
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Albert – Seating Chart (1)
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Albert – Seating Chart (1)
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Albert – Seating Chart (2)
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Albert – Seating Chart (2)
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THE FUTURE
“I will honor Christmas in my heart, and try to keep it all the year. I will live in the Past, the Present,
and the Future. The Spirits of all Three shall strive within me. I will not shut out the lessons
that they teach.” - Scrooge, A Christmas Carol
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BAH HUMBUG!
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San Francisco Museum of Modern Art
• Founded in 1935
• Current building opened in 1995
• 635,000 visitors last fiscal year
• 45,000 member households
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The Steins Collect Challenge
• Possibility of being a blockbuster
• Most important exhibition for several years
• Time to re-evaluate admission and membership pricing
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Questions
• Should membership prices be increased at the start of the Stein exhibition (May 2011) and if so, by how much?
• How does the value of the general admission price relate to the value of membership?
• Should current deeply discounted prices for Senior and Student admission categories be increased at the start of the Stein exhibition and if so, by how much?
• What opportunities exist for increasing revenue and/or attendance by introducing a dynamic admission pricing model?
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Sample Admissions Analysis
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
2005
2010
2005
2010
2005
2010
2005
2010
2005
2010
2005
2010
SFMOMA Cal Academy Exploratorium Asian Art de Young Legion of Honor
Price
Adult Senior Youth Student
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1 4 7 10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
100
A(en
dance
A(endance Trendlines by Day of Run A6er Run Start by exhibi;on (2007 to 2010) Picasso (2007)
MaNsse (2007)
SFMOMA has second highest adult admission rate - $5 more than Exploratorium and $11.95
less than Cal Academy
Major exhibitions gain momentum
towards end of run
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Admissions
Findings • Regular general admission price
of $18 is priced competitively • Senior and student admission
prices are below our competitive set
• Historic attendance patterns during major exhibitions suggest opportunities for revenue management: - Targeted discounts to drive
attendance and word-of-mouth buzz at the start of the exhibition
- Variable pricing opportunities to increase revenue towards the end of the exhibition.
Recommendations • Raise Senior and Student admission
price as soon as possible: - Senior from $9 to $12
- Student from $9 to $11
• Introduced $7 surcharge ticket for Stein exhibition across all categories
• Offer targeted 20% “early bird” discounts to select audience segments for first 10 days of exhibition
• Conduct onsite visitor survey in early June to determine whether to implement variable pricing for final 3-4 weeks
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Sample Membership Analysis
Transactional Membership pricing was lower than most of
the competition
$45
$80 $105
$250
$59
$99
$159
$250
$60
$105
$155
$250
$55 $75
$100
$350
$55
$95 $125
$225
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
Tier 1 (Sen
ior/Stud
ent)
Tier 2 (Ind
ividual)
Tier 3 (D
ual/F
amily)
Tier 4 (Sup
porNng)
Price
Memberships Prices (December 2010)
SFMOMA
-‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Jul Sep Nov
Jan Mar
May
Jul Sep Nov
Jan Mar
May
Jul Sep Nov
Jan Mar
May
Jul Sep Nov
Jan Mar
May
Jul Sep Nov
Jan Mar
May
Jul Sep Nov
Jan Mar
May
2004-‐05 2005-‐06 2006-‐07 2007-‐08 2008-‐09 2009-‐10
Mem
berships Sold
New Membership Purchases by Month (2004 to 2010) New
No negative response on part of new members to
membership price increases
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Membership
Findings • General agreement that
transactional levels are priced too low compared with our competitive set.
• Dual and Senior Dual categories are particularly undervalued
• New membership sales are driven by the popularity of the exhibition, far less than by price
• Existing members try to beat the clock when prices are increased
Recommendations • Increase transactional categories
by $10 at the start of Stein:
Individual - $80 to $90
Dual - $105 to $115
Senior Individual - $45 to $55
Senior Dual - $65 to $75
• Don’t pre-announce price increase, but offer renewing members the old price if they renew by their expiration date
• Evaluate in early 2012 and consider second increase in a year’s time.
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Results: Admissions
• Exceeded attendance projections by 19% or 57,000 attendees
• Exceeded revenue projections by 13% or $440,000
• Senior and Student price increases generated $90,000 in incremental revenue
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Results: Admissions, continued
“Early bird” discounts:
• 220,000 emails sent to Charles Schwab clients: 1,921 tickets sold for $37,000 in revenue
• 36,000 emails sent via partner community organizations: 25 tickets sold for $500 revenue
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Results: Admissions, continued
Variable Pricing:
• Increased the special exhibition fee by $2 on Saturdays and Sundays, for last 3 weekends
• Netted $29,000 in incremental revenue above our original projections for these weekends.
• Continued to sell out majority of time-slots for these final weekends.
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Results: Membership
• Over 11,000 new members
• Not a single complaint about price increase
• Members view discounted rates as a “loyalty discount”
• Financial impact:
- $128,000 in incremental revenue from increased membership prices through September 2011
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Total Revenue impact:
• $285,000 in incremental revenue!!
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5 Year Ticket Analysis
Pre-Harman, productions were at 25,000 tickets on average and 90% of seats were sold
Post-Harman Capacity increased significantly Subscriptions
g
Introduc;on
The Shakespeare Theatre Company Now in our 25th season, Shakespeare Theatre Company presents classic theatre of scope and size in an imaginaNve, skillful and accessible American style
Located in Washington D.C.
My history
15+ plus years in markeNng for the Arts
Served as Senior Managing Consultant for TRG for 2 years
Consultant for STC prior to taking over as Director of MarkeNng for last 2 years
Today’s case study 3+ years of variable pricing history Focus on Candide; best variable pricing results to date Looking at trends of buyers purchasing Candide, subsequent purchases and retenNon post Candide
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5 Year Ticket Analysis
Pre-Harman, productions were at 25,000 tickets on average and 90% of seats were sold
Post-Harman Capacity increased significantly Subscriptions
g
Candide Overview
Variable pricing resulted in $115,000 in incremental revenue Pricing strategies included:
o Price bumps, typically in increments of $5 (volume) o Rezoned price zones (high yield) o Created a premium secNon (high yield)
DiscounNng was also considered a variable pricing strategy o Used to build advance (pre-‐reviews) and re-‐engage lapsed audiences o Increased demand o Helped to dress problem performances and/or secNons
Tracked the behavior of three Ncket types o Base price = starNng price that created a base price for subscripNons o Increase = any Ncket price raised above base price o Discount = any Ncket price dropped below base price
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5 Year Ticket Analysis
Pre-Harman, productions were at 25,000 tickets on average and 90% of seats were sold
Post-Harman Capacity increased significantly Subscriptions
g
Ticket Type Time of Purchase
Time of purchase of each Ncket type was key to success Early discounts built advance and Nghtened inventory on select performances Demand warranted more aggressive price increases around 3 weeks to
first performance o Consequently discount and base prices started to decrease
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
% of Ticket Type
Base
Increase
Discount
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53
5 Year Ticket Analysis
Pre-Harman, productions were at 25,000 tickets on average and 90% of seats were sold
Post-Harman Capacity increased significantly Subscriptions
g
Previous Purchase History
A previous purchase of an increased Ncket did effect the Candide purchase InteresNngly, 2/3 of buyers that bought an increase Ncket had only purchased one Ncket increase prior to Candide
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Increase Discount Base
% of Ticket Ty
pe Pu
rchased
Previous Purchase History
Paid Base
Paid Discount
Paid Increase
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5 Year Ticket Analysis
Pre-Harman, productions were at 25,000 tickets on average and 90% of seats were sold
Post-Harman Capacity increased significantly Subscriptions
g
Purchases by Patron Type
Different types of patrons purchased differently Current Subs purchased base price, add-‐ons consisted of more increases than discounts
Buyers from our database purchased more evenly across all types New buyers to STC predominantly purchased increases
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current Subscribers
Lapsed Subscribers
Single Buyers
New Buyers
% of Ticket Ty
pe Pu
rchased
Discount
Increase
Base price
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5 Year Ticket Analysis
Pre-Harman, productions were at 25,000 tickets on average and 90% of seats were sold
Post-Harman Capacity increased significantly Subscriptions
g
Reten;on
Various Ncket types did not seem to affect retenNon (returned to date) Two slight anomalies:
o Lapsed Subs showed higher retenNon rates aier purchasing discounted Ncket
o Around a 5% lower retention rate for new buyers that purchased an increase
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current Subscribers
Lapsed Subscribers
Single Buyers New Buyers
% of R
eten
tion Base price
Increase
Discount
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5 Year Ticket Analysis
Pre-Harman, productions were at 25,000 tickets on average and 90% of seats were sold
Post-Harman Capacity increased significantly Subscriptions
g
Subsequent Purchases
Subsequent purchases made by Candide single buyers Base buyers came purchased in same season at much higher rates and most oien another single purchase
o Specific effort was made for same season package conversion Strong subscripNon conversion from base buyers in next season
o Important to note many of those had same season single purchase as well
Package SingleBase 8% 56%
Discount 1% 24%Increase 2% 16%
Package Full SubBase 3% 14%
Discount 1% 2%Increase 0% 1%
Purchase in Same Season
Purchase Next Season
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5 Year Ticket Analysis
Pre-Harman, productions were at 25,000 tickets on average and 90% of seats were sold
Post-Harman Capacity increased significantly Subscriptions
g
Key Findings RelaNonship between types of purchases and Nme of purchase is important and track able
Increases should go up as discount and base decreases o Metric that can help in decision making
Target accounts with a history of purchasing increased Nckets ParNcularly one-‐Nme buyers; premium seaNng seems valuable
Garner addiNonal income from pushing performances that have received Ncket increases
RetenNon is not parNcularly Ned to variable pricing Anomalies here and there, but at STC tends to be more about follow up markeNng effort or other factors
Churn rate on new buyers is high anyway o Need beler retenNon strategies overall o Variable pricing isn’t the culprit
InvesNgate the transparency of variable pricing as a pitch in subscripNon Not currently an acNve strategy; but findings thus far does not point to the pracNce being a deterrent
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Q & A
Thank you • Steven
• Lori • Nicola • Darby