dynamics of a reintroduced population after 24 years of...
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Dynamics of a reintroduced population after 24 years of
release: the case of the cinereous vulture Aegypius
monachus in France.
The 33rd International Union of Game Biologists
Typhaine ROUSTEAU (PhD student)
Olivier DURIEZ , Jean-Baptiste MIHOUB & François SARRAZIN
Reintroduction: a tool for the conservation of biodiversity
Local or Global extinction in the wild
REINTRODUCTION
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
2
Local or Global extinction in the wild
REINTRODUCTION
1• Feasability
2• Preparation
3• Release
4
• Monitoring
• Data analysis
Sarrazin & Barbault (1996); UICN/SCC (2013)
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
3
Local or Global extinction in the wild
REINTRODUCTION
1• Feasability
2• Preparation
3• Release
4
• Monitoring
• Data analysis
Sarrazin & Barbault (1996); UICN/SCC (2013)
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
4
Local or Global extinction in the wild
REINTRODUCTION
1• Feasability
2• Preparation
3• Release
4
• Monitoring
• Data analysis
Validity of reintroduction method
&Success assessment
Reintroduced population management
ADAPTATIVE MANAGEMENT
Sarrazin & Barbault (1996); Sutherland et al. (2010)
APPLIED ECOLOGY
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
5
Theorical dynamics of reintroduced population
1 2 3
Effective
Time
Establishment Growth Regulation
Sarrazin (2007)
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
6
Theorical dynamics of reintroduced population
1 2 3
Effective
Time
Establishment Growth Regulation
Study of viability
Robert et al. (2015) , IUCN & SSC, (2013)
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
Model the probability of extinction
Criterion E
7
Theorical dynamics of reintroduced population
1 2 3
Effective
Time
Establishment Growth Regulation
Study of viability
Robert et al. (2015) , IUCN & SSC, (2013)
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
Model the probability of extinction
Criterion E
Metapopulation context?
8
Population dynamics
Survival
DispersalFecundity
Population viability analysis
Lebreton & Clobert, (1991) ; Armstrong & Seddon, (2007)
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
9
Focus on metapopulation dynamics
Population dynamics
Survival
Dispersal
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
10
Aegypius monachus
Model species: Cinereous vulture
Long-lived with delayed maturity(1st breeding >4 years)
Large capacities of movement
Time to visit several sites beforesettlement
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
© B.Berthémy
11
Distribution range
France World Europe
Extinct Threatened Least concern
Near threatened
© B.Berthémy
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
12
Grands Causses1992-2004
BaronniesSince 2004
Verdonsince 2005
Restored populations
5346
31
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
13
Age (2 classes: 1-4 years vs > 4 years)
Sex ratio of founders
Origin (born in the wild vs captivity )
Main factors that may affect survival and post-release dispersal
Individuals characteristics
Le Gouar et al. (2008,2011); Mihoub et al. (2014a)
©Antwerp Zoo
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
14
Main factors that may affect survival and post-release dispersal
Soft vs hard release
Breeding method (captive vs wild)
Pre-release experience
Time spent in captivity
Le Gouar et al. (2008,2011); Mihoub et al. (2014a)
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
Release methods
©P.Lécuyer
Hacking: Juveniles <1 yearsArtificial nests
Aviary: Immatures > 1 years
15
A previous study
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
Le Gouar et al. (2008,2011)16
• 2 additional release sites
• Exchanges of individuals have been detected
A previous study
Dispersal from some release sites is associatedwith local failure
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
Le Gouar et al. (2008,2011), Mihoub et al. (2014)
And now
17
Research questions
Metapopulation dynamics?
Is the survival and dispersal (movement behavior) equivalent in the different
release areas?
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
18
Dataset 1992 - 2016
283 individuals / 49 occasions
198 55
28
2 occasions Winter - Summer / year
Winter = 1st february – 30 april Summer = 1st august – 30 october
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
CAPTURE – MARK – RECAPTURE ANALYSIS
Lebreton et al. (1992) Pradel (2005)19
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
Controls of tagged birds = capture Lebreton et al. (1992)20
Types of individual marks
Born in the wild
Releasedindividuals
Long distance resighting
Short distance
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
Metal ring
Engraved plastic ring
21
Types of individual marks
VHF
GPS
Born in the wild
Releasedindividuals
Feather bleaching
Telemetry
Long distance resighting
Short distance
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
Metal ring
Engraved plastic ring
22
Recoveries and definitive captures
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
23
Multi-states Capture-Recapture models allow estimation of:
Site-specific survival : φ
Attribution to a state resident vs “mover” : p
The resighting probability at each site: ρ
The dead recovery: r
Pradel et al. (2005); Choquet et al. (2009a)
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
E-SURGE software
24
5 StatesAlive resident CaussesAlive resident BaronniesAlive resident VerdonAlive MoverFound Dead
Encountered histories
Hacking Aviary
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
25
Encountered histories
6 EventsNot seen= 0Seen alive Causses =1Seen alive Baronnies =2Seen alive Verdon = 3Seen alive Mover = 4Seen Dead = 5
1 Hacking Aviary
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
26
Encountered histories
Hacking Aviary
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
6 EventsNot seen= 0Seen alive Causses =1Seen alive Baronnies =2Seen alive Verdon = 3Seen alive Mover = 4Seen Dead = 5
1 2 27
Encountered histories
Hacking Aviary
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
6 EventsNot seen= 0Seen alive Causses =1Seen alive Baronnies =2Seen alive Verdon = 3Seen alive Mover = 4Seen Dead = 5
1 2 3 28
6 EventsNot seen= 0Seen alive Causses =1Seen alive Baronnies =2Seen alive Verdon = 3Seen alive Mover = 4Seen Dead = 5
Encountered histories
Hacking Aviary
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
1 2 3 0 29
Encountered histories
Hacking Aviary
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
6 EventsNot seen= 0Seen alive Causses =1Seen alive Baronnies =2Seen alive Verdon = 3Seen alive Mover = 4Seen Dead = 5
1 2 3 0 4 30
Encountered histories
Hacking Aviary
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
6 EventsNot seen= 0Seen alive Causses =1Seen alive Baronnies =2Seen alive Verdon = 3Seen alive Mover = 4Seen Dead = 5
1 2 3 0 4 5 31
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
Survival
φA1: Alive in
Causses
A2: Alive in
Baronnies
A3: Alive in
VerdonA4: Alive mover ND: Newly Dead D:Dead
A1 φ1 - - - 1-φ1 -
A2 - φ2 - - 1-φ2 -
A3 - - φ3 - 1-φ3 -
A4 - - - φ4 1-φ4 -
ND - - - - - 1
D - - - - - 1
32
NOVELTY
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
Initial states
Residents « Movers »
pA1: Alive in
Causses
A2: Alive in
Baronnies
A3: Alive in
VerdonA4: Alive mover ND: Newly Dead D:Dead
p1 p2 p3 p4 - -
33
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
Resighting probabilities & dead recovery
ρ / r 0:Not Seen1:Seen alive in
Causses
2:Seen alive in
Baronnies
3:Seen alive in
Verdon4:Seen alive Mover
5:Seen
Dead
A1: Alive in
Causses1-ρ11 ρ11 - - - -
A2: Alive in
Baronnies1-ρ22 - ρ22 - - -
A3: Alive in
Verdon1-ρ33 - - ρ33 - -
A4: Alive
mover1-ρ41-ρ42-p43-p44 ρ41 ρ42 ρ43 ρ44 -
ND: Newly
Dead1-r - - - - r
D:Dead 1 - - - - -
34
According to biological assumptions
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
pperiodφ2age*release*siteρresident+ mover*site rrelease
THE (preliminary) MODEL !
35
Assumptions of homogenization of our data set No transience, trap-dependance, memory effects
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
But First Goodness of fit test (GOF test)
Pradel et al. (2005); Choquet et al. (2009a).
U-Care software
36
Assumptions of homogenization of our data set No transience, trap-dependance, memory effects
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
But First Goodness of fit test (GOF test)
Pradel et al. (2005); Choquet et al. (2009a).
P-value > 0,05 No transience and memory effect (Test 3G) No trap-dependance (Test M)
37
reco
very
-wild
bor
n
reco
very
-reint
ro
reside
nts
mov
ers-
Cau
mov
ers-
Bar
mov
ers-
Ver
Pro
babili
ty (
+/-
SE
)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Recovery and resighting probabilities
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
38
site
Causses Baronnies Verdon Movers
pro
port
ion o
f in
div
iduals
(+
/- S
E)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Only Causses 1992-2003
Causses and Alps 2004-2016
Attribution to resident and mover states
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
39
Adults > 4 years
Survival probabilities
Young birds
Causses Alps Movers
Su
rviv
al p
rob
ab
ility
(+
/- S
E)
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0Wild born
Reintroduced
Adult birds
Causses Alps Movers
Su
rviv
al p
rob
ab
ility
(+
/- S
E)
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0Wild born
Reintroduced
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
40
Youngs 1-4 years
Survival probabilities
Young birds
Causses Alps Movers
Surv
ival pro
babili
ty (
+/-
SE
)
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0Wild born
Reintroduced
Adult birds
Causses Alps Movers
Surv
ival pro
babili
ty (
+/-
SE
)
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0Wild born
Reintroduced
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
41
Quantify for the first time proportion of resident and erratic birds in Cinereous vultures
Griffon vultures: only 20% of resident immatures in the Causses
©Bruno Berthemy
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
42
©Antwerp zoo
As expected, φ adults > φ young birds
Mihoub et al. (2014)
Difference only in young birds
Survival in the Causses
Wild born : φ mover > φ resident
Released : φ mover < φ resident
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
43
Low sample size in the Alps
©Antwerp zoo
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
44
Time effect (year, season)
Lebreton et al. (1992); Prévot- Julliard et al. (1998); Tavecchia et al. (2011)
What will be taken into account
©Bruno Berthemy
©TR
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
45
Time effect (year, season)
Sex
Lebreton et al. (1992); Prévot- Julliard et al. (1998); Tavecchia et al. (2011)
What will be taken into account
©Bruno Berthemy
©TR
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
46
Time effect (year, season)
Sex
Tag loss
Lebreton et al. (1992); Prévot- Julliard et al. (1998); Tavecchia et al. (2011)
What will be taken into account
©Bruno Berthemy
©TR
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
47
Time effect (year, season)
Sex
Tag loss
Pre-release experience
Lebreton et al. (1992); Prévot- Julliard et al. (1998); Tavecchia et al. (2011)
What will be taken into account
©Bruno Berthemy
©TR
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
48
Dispersal : important component to consider in the future population viability models
Introduction – Materials & Methods – Results – Discussion
49
