dynamics of changes in travel in the largest u.s. cities · children for the first time in u.s....

Dynamics of Changes in Travel in the

Largest U.S. Cities

Nancy McGuckin

Travel Behavior Analyst

1

2www.travelbehavior.us

* Metropolitan Statistical Areas with populations of 3 million or more

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GABoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NHChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WIDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TXDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MIHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TXLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CAMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FLMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PAPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MDPhoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZRiverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CASan Diego-Carlsbad, CASan Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CASeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WAWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

3

1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017

Percent of the US Population by Age Group

Ages 35-64

Ages 20-34

Ages 5-19

Ages 65 and older

“The aging of baby

boomers means that

within just a couple

decades, older

people are projected

to outnumber

children for the first

time in U.S. history.

US Census Bureau, March 13,

2018

Jonathon Vespa, Release

Number: CB18-41

www.travelbehavior.us

Overall, the biggest demographic trend is the

aging population:

Meaning there are relatively fewer households with children and a greater share of retired households:

4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1990 1995 2001 2009 2017 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017

Per

cen

t o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

Demographic Trends in the Largest U.S. Cities: Household Life - Cycle

US Largest Cities All Other

Adult Households w/ No Children Households w/ Children Retired Households

Source: McGuckin’s Analysis of the FHWA NHTS Data Series



0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1995 2001 2009 2017

Per

cen

t o

f H

ou

sheo

lds

wit

ho

ut

a V

ehic

le

Demographic Trends in the Largest Cities in the U.S.:Zero-Vehicle Households


Source: McGuckin’s analysis of FHWA NHTS data series

Long-term vehicle ownership trends show a

slight increase in the percent of households without vehicles.

However, more recently in some cities (Los Angeles) those trends seem to reverse, especially in lower-income areas.

Some low income people may obtain a vehicle to work as an Uber/lyft driver, thereby increasing the number of private vehicles in operation. New leasing options target lower income drivers specifically for this purpose (e.g. Fair recently partnered with Uber to lease vehicles to lower income drivers).

Nationwide, long-term trends show slower growth in important travel-related factors:



• Household Travel

• Person Travel

• Special Topics


Components of Change in Personal Travel, 1995 to 2017

www.travelbehavior.us 8

• Population growth was a major contributor to growth in travel (Trips/VMT/KMT)

• The average trip length increased 15 percent—but private vehicle trip length only increased 5.5% (not shown) indicating more long-distance (air) travel

• People who travelled reported making

fewer trips in 2017 compared to 1995

• And more people stayed home, which contributed to the decline in per capita trip rates

15%

24%

-17%

-21%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Decline in Trips per Person:

Decline in Trips per Traveler:

Increased Trip Length:

Population Growth:


Overall, U.S. population growth is slowing:


“Nearly a fifth of all states displayed absolute

population losses over the past two years.”

William Frey, Dec 2018https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-

avenue/2018/12/21/us-population-growth-hits-80-year-low-capping-off-a-year-of-

demographic-stagnation/

Source: William Frey Analysis of Census Population Estimates released Dec 19, 2018

In the last two decades, the largest cities increased their

populations by 12%compared to 33%for the rest of the nation.

10

The largest cities are growing slowerthan the rest of the nation:


0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 2001 2009 2017

Nu

mb

er o

f P

eop

le i

n M

illi

on

s

Demographic Trends in the Largest U.S. Cities: Population Growth (MSAs of 3 million or more population)



Household-based estimates of travel in 2017 were significantly lower than the same estimates in 1995, 2001 or 2009:



10.5

6.4

4.33.6

9.7

6.0

4.13.4

9.5

5.7

3.83.0

8.6

5.1

3.42.7

Daily Person Trips perHousehold

Daily Vehicle Trips perHousehold

Daily Person Trips perPerson

Daily Vehicle Trips perDriver

Trends in Overall Household-Based Travel indicators

1995 2001 2009 2017 Margin of Error

Trip-making declined significantly for all age groups except people over age 65. Declines since 1995 are remarkable…

12

4.3

3.7

4.6 4.6 4.6

3.4

4.1

3.4

4.14.3

4.5

3.4

3.8

3.23.5

3.94.2

3.23.4

2.8 2.8

3.43.7

3.2

Total Under 16 16 to 20 21 to 35 36 to 65 Over 65

Trends in Overall Person-Trip Rates for People in Different Age Groups

1995 2001 2009 2017 Margin of Error



13

Trip rates by age, sex, urban/rural, income, purpose, etc. all seem to track with

previous trends--they declined. The declines came predominantly from trips for

shopping and errands.

0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6

1.72.0

1.81.6

1.3

0.4

0.40.4

0.40.4

1.0

1.11.1

1.0

0.9

1990 1995 2001 2009 2017

Trends in Person-Trip Rates by Purpose, 1990 to 2017

Other

Social and Recreational

School/Church

Shopping and Errands

To or From Work

4.34.1

3.8

3.4

0.0 Daily Trip Rate Estimate

3.8

2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends


On the other hand, the number of home deliveries from

on-line shopping doubled:

2.41.6

3.7 4.24.9

2.9

6.97.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

All No Kids Kids 5-15 Kids 16-21

Nu

mb

er o

f D

eliv

erie

s to

th

e H

ou

seh

old

Number of Deliveries in Last 30 Days by Life Cycle 2009 and 2017 NHTS

2009 Deliveries 2017 Delivieres Margin of Error



11.6%13.2%

17.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2001 2009 2017P

erce

nt

of

Res

po

nd

ents

wh

o R

epo

rt N

o T

rav

el o

n A

ssig

ned

Day

6.0%

8.7%

11.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2001 2009 2017

Per

cen

t o

f W

ork

ers

Wh

o W

ork

On

ly a

t H

om

e

More workers work at home:

www.travelbehavior.us 15

On an average day more people

don’t leave home :


Trends show vehicle use declined faster in large cities since 1995—

While transit increasedPlease note the different scales for different modes of travel


-

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

1,400.00

1,600.00

1995 2001 2009 2017

Veh

icle

Tri

ips

per

Cap

ita

per

Yea

r

Private Vehicle Trip Rates


-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

1995 2001 2009 2017T

ran

sit

Tri

ips

per

Cap

ita

per

Yea

r

Transit Trip Rates



Transit use is very correlated to age, even taking into consideration

proximity. Therefore, there are challenges for transit agencies as the millennials age through their life-cycle:

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

16-24 25-34 35-54 55+

Nu

mb

er o

f P

eop

le i

n M

illi

on

s

An

nu

al T

rip

s p

er C

apit

a

Number of People and Transit Trip-Rate Trendsby Age Category

See: TCRP Report 201: Understanding Changes in Demographics, Preferences, and Markets for Public Transportation

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Closest toTransit

Close Middle Far Furthestfrom Transit

Perc

ent

Tran

sit

On

e a

Wee

k

Transit Use at Least Once a Week in Different Age Groups, for Five Levels of Proximity

18 - 24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+


“Millennial” Generation

Generation “X”

“Baby Boomers” under 65

In the next 15 years, this group will populate the high-transit

using age groups--

Overall there are about 10 percent fewer people in Gen Z compared to

Millennials--

Even if this generation retains the pro-transit and pro-urbanist

attitudes of Millennials, transit agencies will be challenged to keep current ridership levels.

Generation “Z” “

And new services can complement and/or compete with transit:

19

3.0 3.6

1.6

0.4

3.5

3.9

6.0

3.2

16-29 30-44 45-64 65+

Number (in millions) of Transit Users who Also Used Ride-hail Services in the last 30 days

Also Used Ride-hailing Did Not Use Ride-hailing



Further thoughts: Travel is Changing

• The population is aging and the growth rate is slowing--this will probably be mirrored in travel rates in the next decade or so

• In addition, local trip-making for shopping and errands has declined while home deliveries have doubled

• Increased person-trip length (and long-term trends in air travel) indicate that inter-city travel and tourism has increased

• Transit People who live in large cities have a lot of new travel options and they use them

• Some options complement traditional services like transit and some compete


Further Thoughts: Implications for traditional revenue streams

• Lower vehicle use (VMT) means lower gas tax receipts

• Greater share of on-demand services means revenue from parking fees and parking tickets will be reduced

• Both large cities and smaller towns could be affected*:

The largest cities averaged about $129 per capita in vehicle-related revenues The highest were San Francisco ($512), Washington, D.C. ($502), and Chicago ($248)

Smaller cities may be more affected: parking revenues and all types of legal fines, court fees and forfeiture of deposits totaled more than 10 percent of general revenues. But in Austin, TX for instance, parking fees account for nearly a quarter of the DOTs budget.


* Source: “How Driverless Cars Could Be a Big Problem for Cities”, Mike Maciag, August 2017 at:http://www.governing.com/topics/finance/gov-cities-traffic-parking-revenue-driverless-cars.html

http://www.governing.com/topics/finance/gov-cities-traffic-parking-revenue-driverless-cars.html

22

Thank You!Nancy McGuckin

Travel Behavior Analyst

Data briefs and more at:



http://www.travelbehavior.us/

dynamics of changes in travel in the largest u.s. cities · children for the first time in u.s....

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