e-commerce: the emergence of a new asset class?
TRANSCRIPT
The shape of the futureE-commerce: The emergence of a new asset class?
Alexandra Tornow
Head of EMEA Logistics
& Industrial Research
Why logistics real estate: The retail factor
1
Improving quality of logistics assets …
but large parts of the existing stock
will remain competitive
High and increasing diversity
of space requirements drive
opportunities for all lot sizesNew distribution patterns drive
incremental demand for
logistics space
The inexorable shift to ‘everywhere
consumption’ is pushing the
importance of the asset class
Logistics network
alignment has only just begun
Source: JLL
Incremental logistics demand
2
10 millionsq m p/a
13.2 millionsq m p/a
Further globalization of supply chains
Source: JLL
The boom era2004 - 2008
Economic woes2009 - 2013
New retail patterns
30%
… and a variety of different delivery options
Increased supply chain complexity
3
Today, the path of a parcel
involves up to four warehouses …
LOCAL COLLECTION
DEPOT
HUB
LOCAL DELIVERY
DEPOT
E-FULFILLMENT CENTRE CLICK &
COLLECT
SAME-DAY
DELIVERY
CAR DROP-OFFPackage repository
through secure access
PRIVATE
PARCEL BOX
SAME-HOUR
DELIVERYBased on predictive
analytics
SHIP
FROM STORE
LOCKER
STATIONSAt major transport
interlinks
NEW
CONCEPTSYet to be designed
+
Source: JLL
Different building types and their location characteristics
4
Areas that can be outside a traditional ‘cluster of
gravity’ location offering excellent access to transport
infrastructure and high availability of workforce
Metropolitan area / proximity to large conurbations
and transport infrastructure including ports and
multi-modal sites (train, barges)
At the edge or within major cities / urban areas
At the edge or within major cities / urban areas
Metropolitan area / proximity to large
conurbations and transport infrastructure;
in proximity to e-fulfilment centres
MEGA E-FULFILLMENT
CENTRES
PARCEL HUB / SORTATION
CENTRE
PARCEL DELIVERY CENTRE &
URBAN LOGISTICS DEPOT
RETURN PROCESSING
CENTRE
DOT.COM WAREHOUSE FOR
ONLINE FOOD FULFILLMENT
Source: JLL
5
JLL occupier survey: % of respondents indicating their floorspace requirements (multiple responses possible)
No size fits all …
38% Very large
(30,000 - 50,000 sq m)
32%Medium sized
(10,000 - 30,000 sq m)
30% Small
(below 10,000 sq m)
25% Mega-sheds
(above 50,000 sq m)
Source: JLL logistics and industrial occupier survey Europe in cooperation with CoreNet Global
… but big is beautiful
The ‘emergence’ of mega sheds…
6
6.5 million sq mCompleted
2009 – H1 2014
~ 1.1 million sq m Under construction
Source: JLL
… and their tenant base
7
25%3 PL
23%Online
23%Multi-channel
21%General retail
6%Manufacturing
2%Other
Source: JLL
Single unit assets >50,000 sq m
394
8
The geography of mega sheds
Source: JLL
190*
276
910
2,490
282
540512
584
225
160
100
1,340
n/a
,000 sq m
*planned
Improving quality of logistics assets
9
More than of new facilities built since 2009 30 million sq mFeaturing:
Mezzanine floorspace
Power supply
Loading doors
Employee rooms
Car parking
Port location
Rail access
Multi-modal
Sustainability
`
P
Source: JLL
Month 00, 2014 10
36%
16%
48%
standard modern general specification
build to suit or specific standards
both types are needed
Required standard of
facilities
Source: JLL logistics and industrial occupier survey Europe in cooperation with CoreNet Global
But fears of obsolescence are unnecessary
Logistics network not fit for the futureLive-poll results of 70+ seminar attendees
11
Source: JLL, Corenet Global
3%Yes, current network
alignment is fit for
purpose
67%No, current network
alignment will need
significant future
restructuring.
30%
Minor adjustments
required
The opportunities
Why logistics real estate?
12
Growing geographic spread: rising appeal of smaller markets
Widespread demand offers opportunities for all lot sizes
Large-size single assets: continued development
Further potential for portfolio and JV deals
Moving up the risk curve: value-add and opportunistic
Further yield compression as asset class matures
Growing liquidity: further stock expansion
Source: JLL
13
Logistics real estate networks will continue to
evolve, sustaining ongoing healthy market fundamentals
and therefore further opportunities for landlords,
developers and investors
For successful ‘everywhere consumption’
logistics and supply chain managementare critical
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Contact
14
Alexandra Tornow
Head of EMEA Logistics & Industrial Research
Frankfurt
+49 (0)69 2003 1352
de.linkedin.com/pub/alexandra.tornow
@aletornow