e gypt : reforms for promoting economic growth the dollar to pound parody 2004-2010 by: dr. khaled...
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EGYPT: Reforms for Promoting Economic Growth
The Dollar to Pound Parody 2004-2010
By: Dr. Khaled F. Sherif
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Background: Economic Strengths
► Large GDP = 38th in world (2001) ► Sound macro fundamentals:
► Large pool of educated and skilled workers
Inflation under control
Fiscal deficits manageable
Debt profile sound
Growing exports,
including non-oil and services
High levels of reserves
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Background: Economic Weaknesses
► Low gross national income, even by regional peer group. Examples:
● Among 13 MENA countries reviewed, higher only than Morocco, Syria and Yemen
● Lower than Algeria, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, UAE
● Only 14% relative to Portugal (lowest among EU)
► High levels of underemployment► Weak human development indicators
● Low levels of literacy, particularly among women (40%)
● Problems with health care access and affordability
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The Egyptian Pound vs US Dollar(Dollar Supply and Demand)
► Imports
► Subsidies
► Spare parts
► Repatriation
► Travel
► Hedging
► Capital Investment
► Imports
► Subsidies
► Spare parts
► Repatriation
► Travel
► Hedging
► Capital Investment
► Remittances
► Oil/Natural Gas
► Tourism
► Foreign Investment
► Exports
► Interest rate spread
► Remittances
► Oil/Natural Gas
► Tourism
► Foreign Investment
► Exports
► Interest rate spread
$4.2 bln
$3.1 bln
$1.1 bln
$800 mln
$1.4 bln---------
$10.6 bln+
Dollar Demand
$3 bln
$1.2 bln
$2.7 bln
$400 mln
$1.2 mln
---------$8.5 bln
Dollar Supply
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Dollar Demand Trends
Imports
Hedging
Capital Investment
Spare parts
Travel
Subsidies
Repatriation
?
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Dollar Supply Trends
Remittances
Interest Rate Spread
Tourism
Exports
Oil/Natural Gas
Foreign Investment
?
?
?
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Current Trend Implications
► As it stands, Egypt maintained a dollar deficit in excess of $2.6 billion in 2003*● This serves to explain the recent surge in
the price of the US dollar; and suggests increasing further declines
► Moreover, there has been an inability on the part of Egypt to fulfill its potential in attracting dollar inflows● Example: At $400 million, FDI represents a
shocking $5.7 per capita
* Figures for hedging and interest rate spread were not available
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Projecting Dollar Demand vs Dollar SupplyThe Impact of Current Trends
Price
Quantity
Supply (S)
LE 7.00=US$ 1.00
Demand (D)
Q
Current Outlook
P'
D'
Q'
Demand Increase
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Projecting Dollar Demand vs Dollar SupplyThe Impact of Current Trends
Price
Quantity
Supply (S)
LE 7.00=US$ 1.00
Q
Demand (D)
Current Outlook
Q'
S'
P'
Decrease in Supply
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Projecting Dollar Demand vs Dollar SupplyThe Impact of Current Trends
Price
Quantity
LE 7.00=US$ 1.00
P'
D'
Q'
S'
LE 7.00=US$ 1.00
(P)
Q
Resultant Outlook: Increase in Price; Decrease in Quantity
Supply (S)
Demand (D)
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The Impact of Current Trends:Case Example: Subsidization
► Currently, the Egyptian government subsidizes a number of goods, including:
Cooking Oil Sugar Bread Lentils
► Meanwhile, as the population continues to increases, subsidies are likely to increase in greater proportion:
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Population(Millions)
Subsidies(US$Millions)
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The Impact of Current Trends:Case Example: Subsidization
► Increasing subsidization decreases the supply of dollars within the system, resulting an increase in its price:
Price
Quantity
Supply (S)
LE 7.00=US$ 1.00
Q
Demand (D)
Q'
S'
P'
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Increasing value of the US Dollar
* Estimate
1980: $1= LE 0.73
1985: $1= LE 1.10
1990: $1= LE 2.30 2005*: $1= LE 7.20
1995: $1= LE 3.30
2000: $1= LE 5.20
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Diminishing value of the Egyptian Pound
1980: 1LE= US$1.36
1985: 1LE= US$0.91
1990: 1LE= US$0.43
1995: 1LE= US$0.30
2000: 1LE= US$0.19
2005*: 1LE= US$0.13
* Estimate
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Value of LE 100,000 in US$
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Diminishing value of the Egyptian PoundNet Worth Comparisons
► The following table and graph illustrate the decline in value of LE 100,000 between 1980 and 2005:
Year US$ Equivalent
1980 136,986
1985 90,909
1990 43,478
1995 30,303
2000 19,231
2005* 13,889
* Estimate US$ Equivalent
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► The substantial damage experienced by the Egyptian pound is reflected in the following example:
● An individual/organization who held $100,000 in 1980 and converted that to Egyptian pounds would have approximately the equivalent $10,000 today
● Meanwhile, an individual/organization who purchased $100,000 in 1980 and maintained it in US currency would have increased their investment by almost ten-fold (from LE 73,000 to approximately LE 700,000)
► Meanwhile, The IMF estimates that the value of deposits held by Egyptians overseas is approximately US$ 77 billion
● By placing this currency in the Egyptian financial system, it would have a multiplier effect of 5!
► The fear is that if this continues, this will spur increased dollarization, as has been the case with dramatic capital flight from Mexico and Argentina
Diminishing value of the Egyptian Pound Capital Flight Implications
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Reform Strategy: 2004-2010
I. Financial Sector Reform
Program
II. Investment/ Tourism
Promotion
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Financial Sector Reforms:Privatization
► Finalize privatization of state banks by 2006● 4 large commercial banks● 2 specialized financial institutions● 11 joint venture banks
► Use subsequent years for post-privatization resolution as needed● Non-performing and restructured loan
collection
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Financial Sector: Strengthening Intermediation and Achieving Stability
► With a floating exchange rate regime, this means ensuring hedges are properly used
► More efficient banks will be able to pay higher real rates to depositors if they need the funds
► Risk-seeking banks have greater need for funds, making creditor rights essential for increased intermediation
► With a floating exchange rate regime, this means ensuring hedges are properly used
► More efficient banks will be able to pay higher real rates to depositors if they need the funds
► Risk-seeking banks have greater need for funds, making creditor rights essential for increased intermediation
Strengthen the banking environment to reinforce
public confidence in deposit safety
► Minimum capital increasing
► Prudential norms tightening
► Stricter loan classification and tougher asset valuation standards means banks will have more pressure to sustain adequate capital adequacy ratios
► Increased investment will be needed for increased efficiency to bolster earnings and exceed minimum capital and CAR requirements
► Minimum capital increasing
► Prudential norms tightening
► Stricter loan classification and tougher asset valuation standards means banks will have more pressure to sustain adequate capital adequacy ratios
► Increased investment will be needed for increased efficiency to bolster earnings and exceed minimum capital and CAR requirements
Combine privatization and deposit safety efforts as
part of investment approach
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Financial Sector: Prudential Framework and Enforcement
Raise minimum CAR to 12% in
2007
Articulate clear thresholds that trigger specific
corrective actions as CARs fall below
prudential requirements
Ensure tax rules for provisioning are consistent
with international standards
Strengthen CBE mandate and stress testing
capacity
Monitor banks’ risk management systems, internal
controls, and internal audit
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Investment/Tourism Promotion Policy and Institutional Checklist
Macroeconomic stability
Credit, investment and financial sector policiesthat promote intermediation
Labor market flexibility
Effective judiciary and legal enforcement
Low barriers to entry AND exit
Good governance
Open trade and investment regime
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The Way Forward…
► Devaluation is not a choice- it is a reality (an outcome)
► Even with the best economic reform scenarios, the pound will fall sharply against the dollar
► To stem the tide of devaluation, we have to act now:
● A serious financial sector reform program is needed● Renewed investment will be required in trying to push
exports● Tourism must take the lead in the development effort● Foreign direct investment must be tapped to its
potential and cannot persist at $5.7 per capita