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Page 1: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

June 2003

Volume ☁4 Numbet 8

Available by Subscription Dniy

ISSN 09672583

OVUIIl HOLWAY

SYSTEMHOUSEThe monthly review of the financial performance of the UK software and IT services industry

MORE FOR LESSIt's official. We're In the doldrums and we're

going to remain becalmed, certainly for the

foreseeable future.

Last year we think we captured the real mood of the UK

S/lTS market with our theme, "make do and mend☝. The

message from the customers was clear. Rather than invest in

grand new lT projects with questionable return customers

were far more inclined to make do with what they already had.

Any money being earmarked for lT was primarily to make

existing systems (both hardware and software) work better

together and last longer. Any business case to spend ☁new☂

money on IT had to be able to demonstrate a sound return in

the same nancial year, also itwould never get past rst base.

The effect that

this had on IT

spending was more

dramatic than even

we had predicted.

During last year we

were expecting

growth in the UK 5/

ITS market to be

about flat♥ but even

this would have

meant a decline of

some 2% in real

[emsaaexduding 1997 use 1999 am 2001 2002

[I SIITS market growth I srns growth excludlng Inuaiionin ation).

But now that all

the numbers are in

we have to admit that we called it too high! What actually

happened was that the UK S/ITS market shrunk by just over

4% in real terms, to around £21.7bn. This makes 2002

the worst year on record for UK S/ITS marketgrowth.

The reasons for the downturn are by now only too well

known and we won☂t risk boring you by listing them all yet

again. But one factor does bear repeating, and that is the lack

of visibility of the ☁next big thing'.

The new CIO agenda

And now we have to tell you we believe the mood of the

market has changed again, and not for the better. All the

signals we have been getting from the industry (i.e. the

suppliers) and the market (i.e. the ClOs) point to a desire on

the part of business to cut spending on IT. But this doesn't

mean cutting back on what you might call ☁IT delivery☁. The

message is simply that customers now want more for less

from their IT investment.

We hear this from the CEOs of the suppliers who tell us

that customers are driving even tougher deals, Indeed, they

are even renegotiating existing long»term contracts to get

keener pricing in the sure knowledge that the supplier can do

little other than ght their corner hard ♥ then comply.

And we have heard it directly from the ClOs of some of

the world's largest commercial and government organisations

whom we interviewed early in 2003. As we told you last

month, today's CIO is

working off the excesses

of the late 1990s. Their

new agendas are

dominated by cost

reduction. ☁Do more with

less☁ is today's

drumbeat.

Cutting costs

remains ☁de rigeur'. But

despite the general

mood of cutbacks and

rationalisation. ClOs are

pushing ahead with e-

business projects. Most

of these projects are in

the CRM, portals and

business intelligence areas. But these are all well-established

application areas. 80 you have to ask: where are the new

applications that will encourage future investment? We're afraid

the answer is, 'there aren☂t anyl'.

Looking past the nadir

We've taken these messages to heart. As a result, we

have further trimmed our forecasts in almost every facet of

the UK S/lTS market ♥ even outsourcing (which remains the

engine of whatever growth there is in the UK S/ITS market).

We☁ve totted it all up and we predict that the market will

shrink again this year. by 3% in real terms, marking the nadir

(we hope) for the market. At current course and speed we

think the market will stop shrinking in 2004 and that growth

zoo: 20M 2005 zone

[continued on page two]

Page 2: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

2 SVSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

[continued from page one]

beyond will be in very low single

digits. Even so, this means that

we will see five consecutive

years where S/ITS market

growth will be less than the

forecast growth in GDP.

Postscript: The first rule

for IT management

In his excellent article in Harvard

Business Review in May 03,

business strategist Nicholas G Carr

puts forward the view that the

commoditisation of IT means that it

is generally speaking no longer

☁strategic☂, in the sense of being able

to deliver a distinct competitive

advantage to an individual

company. Rather, IT is ☁essential' as

in, ☜we can't run the company

without it☝, like electricity and

phones, He goes a stage further,

"The only meaningful advantage

most companies can hope to gain

from an infrastructural (sic)

INDEX

IN THIS ISSUE3| 13/14

Anite 8

Atos Origin 12

Aveva 14

8T 6

080 13Comino 12Detoca 7Dimension Data 10EDS 15Experian 5Intelligent Environments 6RM 9

GA 11MMT 12Sage 5

OTHER ARTICLES

Results 16/17S/ITS Index analysis 20Share Prices 18/19

Mergers 8. Acquisitions 15

INDICES (changes in May 03)

Holway S/ITS +27.1% 3430

Holway Internet +20.5% 2294

FTSE IT (808) +12.8% 384

techMARK 100

Nasdaq Comp

+10.8% 747

+ 9.0% 1596

technology (Le. like ID .,. is a cost advantage ♥ and even that tends to be very

hard to sustain☝,

On the basis of this premise (which he amply illustrates in his article), Carr

devised three ☁new rules' forIT management.

May be you canguess his rst rule.

It's simply, 'spend less☝.

THE LEADERS CHANGE SHAPE

It has been a real challenge to derive the rankings for 2002 because some

of the biggest players have changed shape dramatically over the past year or

so. In particular:

- HP ☁merged' with Compaq (effective May 02)

- IBM acquired PwC Consulting (effective Oct. 02)

- Atos Origin acquired KPMG Consulting UK & Netherlands (effective

Sep.02)

- Logica ☁merged' with CMG (effective Dec.02)

In addition, in Apr.03 BT reorganised its services businesses (yet again) to

form BT Global Services. We have used this as a timely opportunity to unite all

of BT's S/ITS revenues (basically, SI arm, Syntegra, and network management

arm, Syncordia, as was) under the single brand.

Therefore, this year we have decided wherever possible to base our core

rankings on the merged companies as they looked at the end of 2002, based

on proforma results (i.e. as if the two companies had been merged since the

beginning of the year). This allows us to gain a more accurate measure of

revenue growth on a ☁like-for♥like' basis during 2002.

However, in the interests of ☁falr play', we have also estimated the results

for the Top Ten players based on pro rata revenues for the merged companies

(for example, just including four months revenue from PwC Consulting in IBM's

gures). As a result, we are pleased to present our ☁Twin Top Tens☂ representing

the leading suppliers of software and IT services to the UK market in 2002,

both proforma and pro rata.

Pralarma Fro rat:Rank Company UK SIITS Rank Com pany UK S/ITS

I'CV. flVi

1 IBM £2,518m 1 EDS £2,385m

2 EDS £2,385m 2 IBM £2,173m

3 Accenture £1,178m 3 Accenture £1,17am4 Fujitsu Services 21,101 m 4 Fujitsu Services £1,101m

5 080 £995m 5 C50 £995m

6 HP 2800'" 6 CGE8IY £749m

7 CGE&Y £749m 7 BT £590m

a BT £690m a Microsoft £549m

9 LogicaC MG £675m 9 Capita £645m

10 Microsoft £649m 10 SchlumbergerSema £640m

So, depending on which way you want to look at it:

» IBM became the leading supplier of software and IT services to the UK

market in 2002, beating EDS into second spot, or

v EDS retained the top spot as the leading supplier of software and IT

services to the UK market in 2002.

This is a great performance by EDS as, unlike IBM. they grew reVenues in2002 (by 2%) whereas IBM saw its UK software and ☁T sewlces ravenuesdecline, both on a proforma basis (by 17%) and On a Pro ram baSiS (by 2%).

However, whichever way you choose to look at it, IBM Certainly exited2002 as the largest supplier of software and IT services to the UK market, andwe would be surprised if it didn't retain this lead ☁in ☜5 own right' in 2003.

Page 3: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

SVSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

HOLWAY COMMENT

WHITHER IT NOW?The nalisation of the Ovum Holway Market Trends report this month (see

page 1) con rms that. whichever way you look at it. 2002 was the worst year

on record for the UK S/ITS sector. Our forecasts anticipate no relief in 2003.

Rather than a ☜bottoming out" we see a continued decline. Our revised forecasts

♥ now through to 2006 ~ give little cause for cheer either.

So where are we now heading?

If Ovum Holway has established a reputation for anything in the last few

years it has been for being the "gloomiest" of all the forecasters. But since

we rst forecast the post 2000 downturn in 1998. our trend lines

have been remarkably and consistently accurate Indeed. as we have

also often admitted. our major failing has been not being gloomy enough.

Since 1998. every forecast we have made in May for the current year has

turned out to be too optimistic by the time we have added up the actual results

in the following May.

Even so. each forecast we make has been initially greeted with criticism ♥

even derision. These reached a crescendo last Novemberwhen we presented

our rst long term view of the industry in the 'lT's all over now' presentation

for the Prince's Trust Technology Leadership Group. We suggested that IT

(which comprises S/ITS plus hardware) had entered a long period of maturity

where average growth over any signi cant period (say a 10 year cycle) would

be closely aligned to GDP.

☜Gloomy☝ ♥ The Times

☜Glum☝ ♥ The Daily Telegraph

"In a minority ofcynics" ♥ Financial Times

"Downbeat" ♥ Computer Weekly

"Stop sneering and start recovering" ♥ Computing.

...are just a selection of the press comments we got at the time.

But, when we produced that view. we believed that the bottom was already

upon us and that GDP-type growth was likely from 2003 onwards.The latest actuals + forecasts. however. show that by 2006, IT will have

experienced six consecutive years of growth lower than GDP.

A RETURN TO DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH?

In 2000. IT had become equal to around 4% of the UK's GDP. By 2006 it

will have reduced to just 3.4% of GDP. It IT were to nish the decade where it

started ♥ at 4% of GDP ♥ we would have to see real growth rates in double

digits returning in the later years of the decade.

We have often said that we believe we will never see double~digit growth in

our sector again.

Every consistent doubledigit growth rate period in the history of IT hasbeen on the back of TWO major things

1 ♥ atechnological ☜Next Big Thing" (PCs. the internet etc.)

2 ♥ an event (decimalisation, Big Bang. Y2K)

At this point:

1 ♥ We cannot identify the NET. We have never had a NET which has takenless than ve years from our identi cation of it to when it starts to make asigni cant impact on the revenue growth rates of the IT sector. So, if we

identify a

NET this

year. it's

2 0 O 9

before it starts to impact growth of

our market.

2 ♥The only "event" in the wings

is the introduction of the Euro. Even

if it happens. we doubt if its effect

on the sector will be anything like

that of Y2K and other "events".

So. bluntly. we wouldn't give you

any odds on double-digit growth

returning this side of 201 0.

Rather. it's the opposite.

MORE FOR LESS

All of the inputs reaching us at

the moment, BOTH from the

supplier side and the client (CIO) side,

indicate that we are in for a

prolonged period where IT users will

expect MORE but will be prepared

to pay LESS.

Michael Dell wrote a very

interesting letter to BusinessWeek

(26"☁ May 03) this month. He made

the point that "the continuing shift in

customer preference to standards-

based technology ♥and away from

expensive proprietary systems ♥

is further reducing the total cost of

computing". He believed that

customer demand for and from their

computer systems would increase

♥ but theamount they would spend

on IT would not.

As we have said in previous

articles. a few years back the major

reasons for outsourcing in the

private sector were things like

transformation to new systems.

access to expertise. improving

quality of service. tighter cost control

etc. Now everyone we interview puts

cost savings at the top of their

"that☂s why I'm outsourcing☝ list.

Where the private sector goes

today the public sector follows

tomorrow,

[continued on page tour]

Page 4: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

SYSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

[continued (ram page three]

201 0

So. let☂s postulate a decade;

- without a NET. But of course

with HUGE and constant

technological innovation and

evolution. For example, we see

RFIDs (Radio Frequency

Identi cation Devices) as a major

opportunity, Without such

opportunities, growth rates would

be even worse!

- where there is continued

pressure on S/ITS costs. ln

particular on staff costs. This in turn

plays into the hands of the offshore

players ♥ or those who partner or

acquire them. Either way, revenues

will be adversely affected.

♥ where users demand MORE

for LESS. Indeed, where they want

to see their companies spend lei

4.50%

4 00%

3.50%

Eg

Birth 0! IT

...and

decimalisatian

/'

ITll

5☁GDP

§ 3☁g

1.00% '

0,50%

0.00%

eaaeaasteaaaaaaeaasesess

(as a % of revenues) on IT than they did in the 1990s but want a greater return

on their investment.

- where there is far less customisation and far more use of standardised

offerings.

- where users turn to ☜consumerstrength☝ IT products because they are

not only much, much cheaper but also easier to use and more reliable (a real

win-win!).

Let's feed a pretty benign set of forecasts for the last four years of this

decade into our model. Let's say that IT just remains where it is in 2006 until

2010. Le. growth = in ation (currently let☁s estimate that at 2.5% p.a.) Before

you explode again. let☂s also put that into context. That growth would be

much, much better than in the firstha/fof this decade!

But that means that a sector which started the decade at 4% of GDP ends

it representing just 3.1 % of GDP. By the way, that only takes us back to where

we were in 1997.

GIVE US YOUR VIEWS

We would, as usual, welcome your feedback on this. Actually, if past

experience is anything to go by, we will get it anyway!

mailto:[email protected]

Birth 0' NextInternet, mobileh alg Thingp ones,Windows etal wand EWV

...and V2K

Birth of PC

...and Big Bang I i

/

.

,. lrr: I:

o

r- We ._M_A, ,.

l The Ovum Holway Market Trends report isavailable as part ofthe Holway@Ovum research

service. Please contact Andrew Handles for furtherl details (email: [email protected], ortelephone 01252

740908

[continued on page «vol

Page 5: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

13%

160»

SAGE: HAPPY TO BE BORING5399Sage has announced its interim results for the six months to 31st Mar. 03.

At the Sage "headline" level. revenues were up 4% at £282.1m, PBT up 14%

at £74.3m and EPS up 14% at 4.02)). But that's only when you strip out

currency movements The ☜bottom line" is that revenues were uponly 1% if

you take currency movements into account and an actual decline in organic

growth of about 2% if you also strip out the minor acquisitions in the period.

lndeed. it was Sage☂s "boring" annuity revenues which really saved the day

Services revenues were up 6% to 俉168.8m and now represent 60% of

revenues. Whereas software licences only grew by 2% (and probably not at all

if you strip out currency movement). On the other hand Sage added 115,000

new customers making the base a credible 3.1 m customers at the present.

- The UK did surprisingly well with revenues up a real 5% - again it was

services and add-ons which held the day.

- Mainland Europe was a mixed story with revenues down 1% overall.

France was down 6% but the Germany and Swiss businesses were up10%.

♥ The US was the ☜star☝ with revenues up 8% and operating pro ts up

30%. The CHM/interact business grew 21% to £28.4m.

Comment: When we spoke with Paul Walker (CEO of Sage), he said how

pleased he was to be Boring as ever! But these results really do show how

reliable an asset 3.1m SMEs can be in ☜tough times". Walker sees "no

improvement in market conditions in 2003☝ and agrees with us that even in

2004. conditions will only improve in his market if general economic conditions

drive it toward. To answer some of our critics who say that SME spend will

more than compensate for the decline in large corporate IT budgets. Walker

(and he should know!) sees no improvement in SME spend in 2003. So expect

N Turnover Em Opera'llng☁Pro t Em V) V

Saga 7 ) . MWSI'IL. ..Six months Mar. (:3 H103) H102 Change M103 ) H102 lcnange☁ H

UK 7 ☂ 250.2) 76.7 71.6% 31.7☜ ☁ é ) 15.7%)3 "73/.France 453) 49.7 6.6% 11.5☁ 14.4149.4%) 24.7% 29.0%

GsrmanyESwitzerland 193) 17.4 10.9%. 3.3) 2.91☂13.B%117.1% 16.7%,us . 107.3) 102.7 4.5% 25.2) 21.6) 21.3%) 24.4% 21.0%Interact ☁ 23,4) 23.5120.☜ 4.3% 1.931263% 14.0% 5.1%

TOTAL. 232.1l 210.0) 4.5% 11.1? se.3:1s.a% 27.3% 24.6%

SYSTEMHOUSEJUNE 2003

little revenue growth. BUT. Sage is

pretty good at driving the earnings

♥ and the cash (operating profit of

£77,1m in the period generated

cash of £100.6m). Indeed its

operating margins of around 27.3%

are among the highest in the UK.

Sage has also started to exploit

industry♥speci c areas ♥ starting in

the US They have launched

industry-speci c offerings based

around their standard Peachtree

products. for Not-for-Profit

companies. small manufacturers.

accountants and the construction

industry. As Walker says. ☜we would

normallysell a Peachtree product for

$200$300. We can sell an industry-

speci c version for$500 single user

or$1000 multiuser". We expect this

to be rolled out in Europe and the

UK, We also expect to see the

continuation of modest acquisitions

of small industry-speci c companies

to facilitate this.

So this is a credible performance

at the earnings level in a tough

market. The "problem" is how to

drive the top/revenue line. But that

is a problem facing nearly everyone

at the moment. in the meanwhile.

Sage and Walker are happy to

continue to be Boring.

/ EXPERIAN PLAYS KEY ROLE FOR GUSexperlan'

Retail and business services group GUS reported full year results a day after disposing

of its home shopping businesses and its logistics and customer care business. Reality. to

the Barclay brothers. Our locus is on GUS☁ credit information and services business. Expat-ion,

which plays on the fringes of 'our' BPO world. Sales at Experian grew by 8% (12% at

constant currency) to 俉1.2bn and Operating profits rose by 14% (20% at constant currency)

to £256m. l☂ ting margins from 20.1% to 21.4%. Experian's UK business saw sales rise by

13% to £298m.

AsGUS disposes ofits underperforming bits. Experian becomes more and more 'mportant.

It currently generates 17% of GUS' total sales but 37% of operating pro ts. almost as much

as from GUS☁ catalogue reta business. Argos. with revenues over 俉5bn.

lnthe UK. Experian isthemarket leader

in consumer credit inlonnation and has a

substantial business in credit risk

management and credit card solutions and

services. This latter is an area that

LogicaCMG seems keen to play in. given

their partnership with Intelligent

Environments, although it looks as

though Experian would have to be the

main player to beat.

Page 6: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

SYSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

BT63 OUTSOURCING OPPORTUNITIES IGNITE BT GLOBAL

SERVICESBT's results for the full year to

315☁ Mar. 03 look pretty good at the

earnings level ♥ not so good at the

top line. EPS was up 61% at 14.2p,

PET was up 44% at 俉1l8bn but

revenue increased by only 2% to

£18.7bn. These results were at the

high end of expectations and sent

BT shares up 4pto 188p on the

morning of theirannouncernent.

Our readers will be interested in

the performance of the newly named

BT Global Services. This used to

be BT ignite and comprises

Syntegra (which used to be run by

Bill Halbert until he was replaced by

Tim Smart a few months ago) and

BT ignite Solutions (still run by Neil

Rogers, and now renamed BT

Global Solutions) Syntegra is

mainly Systems Integration. Global

Solutions is mainly Network

Management and associated

outsourcing.

Overall BT Global Services grew

revenues by 17.5% to £5.3bn in the

year to 315☁ Mar. 03. However, it

was NOT profitable ♥ group

operating losses increased from

£353m to £427m.

In Q4, what was BT Ignite

Solutions ♥ now BT Global Solutions ♥ grew by 14%. This division, which is

essentially BT☂s outsourcing out t, looks to be on something of a roll propelled

by some big signings (most impressive among which was the 1bn Euro deal

with Unilever back in Nov. 02): ☜Nearly all of the full year orders of£3.6 billion

have come in the second halfof the year and provide a solid base ofcontracted

revenue for the future."

In the SI space, meanwhile, Syntegra "performed strongly in the quarter

bene ting from the phasing of delivery against speci c contracts in the

governmentsector, achieving growth of 10 per cent/n whatremains a dif cult

market☝.

We had reckoned BT☂s total UK S/lTS revenues to be £690m in the year

to 315' Mar. 02. Rough calculations would indicate a c6% growth to c2735m

in UK S/ITS revenues in year to 315☁ Mar 03. If so, BT's S/ITS operations have

clearly bucked the negative trend experienced in the market as awhole and its

similarly sized ☜competitors☝ in particular.

We have given you our views on BT's S/ITS operations - and our proposed

strategy for them - several times in the past Basically we believe they should

stick to what they are good at and partner with others who have the skill-set

that BT lacks in the larger deals. This strategy has already seen rewards

Indeed, the coming year could have some major headline wins for BT if their

proposals at, say, Inland Revenue and MOD were to be successful. What BT

must NOT do is try to be a ☜onesourcer☝. Hence. our "problem" with thename

change to BT Global Services. Anyway, both Pierre Danon and Andy Green

(the CEOs of BT Retail and BT Global Services respectively) have assured us

that it is NOT their intention to competehead on with EDS and IBM Global

Services.

Assuming that BT sticks with the"Best of Breed"/Partnering strategy,

there could be many opportunities for readers to "partner" with BT - if they

have the complimentary skills that BT needs. Opportunities are few and far

between in today's ☜challenging☝ market. This might just be one of the better

ones around.

° LOSSES DOWN AT INTELLIGENTe1 ENVIRONMENTS

Intelligent Environments, provider of online software for financial

services, announced its preliminary results for the year to 315☁ Dec. 02☁

Group revenues were 14% down on the previous year at £2.7m due to

its withdrawal from the US market. Revenues from continuing operations

rose 1 1% to £2.6m. Losses also reduced. The Group reported a LBT for

2002 of £2.9m compared to 027m the year before. Similarly, loss per

share eased to 2.1p from 135p.

Comment: Intelligent Environments has failed to report a profit since

its flotation in 1996. There are signs of improvement, however. It has

worked hard to cut costs in 2002, reducing operating expenses by 45%

and the headcount by 41%. As a result, operating losses at the UK

operations decreased by 52% to 俉2.7m.

At the same time, the Group☁s two large-scale projects have increased

ongoing support and

maintenance revenues by 46%,IE's relationship withLogicaCMG, which hasdeveloped a hosted servicearound its software. could also belucrative in the future. However, in

the short-term IE remains

dependent on its shareholders

and a sustained flow of new

orders. Conserving cash and

controlling costs are of paramount

importance.

Page 7: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

|%

«up

SVSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

\ DETIOA OUTPERFORMS THE PROJECT SERVICESde es

MARKET

Detica, the IT services

company providing consultancy

and systems implementation

services in the two markets of

Customer Management and UKNational Security. announced ahighly commendable set of full yearresults (to 315' Mar. 03) this month_

Against what we believe to havebeen a double~digit decline in the UK

project services market in 2002,Detica☂s 19% increase in tumovar

to {seem and more importantly its25% increase in pre~tax profits(before exceptional flotation

expenses) is remarkable. Diluted

EPS was up from 13.5p in 2002

(before otation expenses) to 24.1 p.The bulk of the growth came

from Datica's sweet spot. (heGovernment sector. whiCh saw

turnover increase by 40% to

£19.5m (50% of turnover) including

turnover from National Secumy☁

which was up 37% to SteamNonetheless, turnover from the

commercial sector still managed to

rise by 4% (although the second half

experienced a 4% decline).

Across the commercial Sectonin nancial services and travel that

put in the worst performances _

down 4% and 17% respectiVely'

The other two commercial Sectors

increased revenues ♥ TMT by 19%

off the back of intensive work for 3'

Beth: . 2003 Turnover by vertical

☜3' = 239.2". (2002: 9321"☜)

Traval102% (117%)

Energy

15 6% (is 3%)

TMT17 9% (rec-x.)

Financial Services5.9% (73%)

Government (Other)

Detica Group Plc

10 year Revenue and PET Record

Relative to 1994

7.4

D Revenue (Em) I PET (Em)

u4 4

3.639.2

2☁ 32.526.6

17 66 20.9I .

☁0☁ n 124 12,4 ☁35 i ☜☁5

1994 1995 1956 1997 1993 1599 2000 20m 2002 2003

v-u-mmvomuu

and energy by 1 1% mainly through the strengthening of its long♥term relationship

with Centricat

Much of Detica's success can be attributed to its long-term client

relationships but the Group also acquired 20 new clients over the year ♥ 13of

which were in the commercial sector. CE, Torn Black commented that last

year's oat has "undoubtedly" raised Detica☁s pro le in the marketplace.

However, closing deals is still taking longer than in the past, particularly in the

nance sector, so Detica has had to be ruthless in pulling out of opportunities

with a low probability of closing.

This tight control of the business is one of the characteristics that de ne

Detica. It is now very close to winning a Holway BaringAward The Group

has had an unbroken record of pro t and EPS growth since 1995 so only two

more years to go!

We congratulated Tom Black and Andrew Alcock, FD, on the day of the

results and asked Black his view of current market conditions. Detica still has

plenty of opportunities in the government market with a strong order book.

but he believes the commercial market is still basically at. He also believes the

☜make do and mend☂ mentality is still prevalent: "Clients have spent a lot on

expensive software in the past and are now spending more on services to

make the software work harder☝ - good news for Deticat

Black is happy with consensus forecasts which specify an increase of 1 3.2%

in turnover to E43m and a double-digit increase in pro ts and stated, ☜We

remain competitive, continue to win new assignments and to secure high levels

ofrepeat revenue from existing clients, The

Board anticipates another good yeaf't

Black☂s con dence is evident in the fact that

Detica continues to recruit with employee

numbers up 16% compared to the end of

FY02, Acquisitions could be on the cards

but currently the valuation expectations of

potential targets are still ☜very high".

The share price ended the month up

1% to 334p, Possibly a bit disappointing

given theoverall rise in this month's S/lTS

index.

Government(National Security)42 5% (37 0%)

7,996 (6 1%)

Page 8: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

8

20%

319

SYSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

ANITE: DEPARTURE OF CE OVERSHADOWS

Anlte TRADING UPDATEWe were expecting a full year trading update but got more than we bargained

for when Anite announced the resignation of long time CEO John Hawkins this

month. He will be temporarily replaced by non-exec David Thorpe (ex-EDS)

while they search for a permanent candidate.

John Hawkins has had a big effect on Anite since he joined the Group in

1997. Following a mass of disposals, acquisitions and restructuring, Anite is a

much more streamlined organisation than the complex network of subsidiaries

that existed prior to his arrival. Only 10% of the business that existed three

years ago (travel and telecoms) still remains today.

The party line was that Hawkin☂s skill-set didn't t with the future strategy of

the Group, Alec Daly, Chairman. and Thorpe commented mat Hawkins' strength

was in acquisitions but that Anite☂s focus now would be on driving ef ciencies

out of the existing business. Reading between the lines, it sounds like shareholder

pressure over the earn-out problems last year, coupled with the poor

performance in the public sector business, forced the change. We were assured

by Thorpe that he hasn't found any ☜black holes" in the nances.

Anite is now looking for an ☜experienced executive with a track record of

driving business forward through organic growth. Vertical market expertise

would be an advantage",

Trading Update

The announcement of Hawkins' departure was accompanied by a

comprehensive trading update (for the year to 30'" Apr. 03).

Performance over FY03 was as follows:

- Revenues are said to have grown "in line with expectations". Consensus

forecasts at mid May 03 were for an increase of 1 1 5% to £200m.

♥ PBT for the continuing businesses before exceptional items, restructuring

costs. and amortisation of goodwill) was ☜at the lower end of expectations☝.

The most pessimistic broker☁s forecast at mid May 03 was for a decrease in

pro ts of 34% to £18,6m.

- R&D costs for the year were up 61% from £6.2m to £10m,

♥ The bottom line will be affected by goodwill amortisation and impairment

of £100m plus exceptional items and restructuring costs of £10m (mainly

related to the public sector business) but with ☜no future cash impact". in

addition. Anite will report a £16m net loss on disposal/closure of business

including a 俉14m net loss incurred on the disposal of the loss-making German

subsidiary GMO.

- At the year-end, Anite had net debt of £1 6m (2002: E1 1 .5m) after paying

out £27.6m in earnouts. 100% of the Group's potential earnout liabilities have

now been renegotiated and capped.

» ln the public sector business, ☜the integration of thirteen acquisitions

made in the division in recentyears and the requirement to continue investment

in our products has proved a greater task than was anticipated". The majority

of the c100 redundancies were in this business. Performance in the travel

business was ☜satisfactory however market conditions have worsened leading

to a deferral in major customer projects. The core telecoms testing business

continued to grow revenues but pro tability suffered in H2 due to pricing

pressure. In the international business (overseas consultancy and AM and

support operations), the performance was ☜creditable☝ with margins retained

in the double-digits.

On the outlook for the current year, Chairman Alec Daly, commented,

☜Markets remain tough with no

immediate signs of improvement.

The focus will be on organic growth,

tightly managed continuing

businesses and working to position

the Group for recovery".

- A ☜similar trading pattern" is

expected, but H1 pro ts will be less

than H1 pro ts in the previous year

due to further restructuring and

continued RED.

- The opening order book at the

start of the year was £91m. The

public sector order book was up

23% at £48m.

Anite commented that

underlying margins targeted for the

public sector would only be

realisable once the investment in new

products has finished and Fl&D

begins to reduce.

Comment: Alec Daly,Chairman, and David Thorpe.

Interim CE, made it clear in the

conference call that they were veryhappy with the performance of the

travel. telecoms and consultancybusinesses in tough marketplaces.All these businesses are said to beproducing ☜extremely goodmargins".

Their disappointment clearly

relates to the performance of the

public sector business. Whilst thedivision experienced revenue growth,

it has an "unacceptably high☝ level ofoverheads. This is going to beaddressed in the next couple ofweeks and will result in H1 earningsbeing depressed by about 俉2.5m.

The Group will now look to grow

organically. Daly commented that

their positioning as a "niche vertical

solutions provider extending into

managed services and BPO☝ is one

of the best places to be at the

moment. Wewould agree. Thetan

now will be to exploit the opportunity

whilst increasing productivity and

pro tability.

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13% ☜A☝ FOR EFFORTRM

SYSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

RM. the UK-based FlM Strata to Contract Wins

supplier of software and |T Contract

services to the education Quali cations & glrriculumi uthgity

South [grks'hjgeLga iing Programmesector, has announced interim

results for the six months

ended 31st Mar. 03. The

results, which were ahead of market expectations, show a much leaner.

more focused RM working hard to get back to profitability.

Headline revenue for the six months was down 4% to £85.4m, but

underlying turnover (i.e, excluding the contribution from Learning Schools

Programme, a one-off lottery funded teacher training project which has

now finished), grew 12% to 俉84.6m, from what was ☜a relatively weak

comparative period☝. Even allowing for the fact that H1 02 was not RM☂s

finest hour, the company's performance has certainly outpaced growth in

the S/ITS education sector as a whole. Indeed, we believe the market for

S/lTS in the education sector actually contracted in 2002 and is likely to

grow only marginally in 2008 (see our latest report ♥ UK Public Sector

Market 2003 ♥ The Market for Software and IT Services).

Operating costs were reduced by 8%, but RM remained loss making

at the operating and pre tax levels, albeit with a much improved

performance than in H1 02 ♥ operating loss was £2.4m (compared to

£14.6m) and pre tax loss was £1.8m (£14.1m). Diluted loss per share

was1.8p(11.2p).

Commenting on the outlook, Tim Pearson, Chief Executive, said: ☜As

always RM '5 core business is highly seasonal, and the rst half is not a

good indicator of full-year performance, Whilst it is dif cult this year to

predict the impact of the school budget settlement, lbe/ieve that RM will

see good progress for the year as a whole☝.

Comment: We believe that Tim Pearson, and his management team,

deserve a pat on the back (or a house merit!) for getting RM back in

shape. OK, so the company is not yet making a profit, but H2 is traditionally

RM☁S strongest half, contributing the majority of revenue and an even

greater proportion of gross profit. so things are heading in the right

direction,

All three of RM's activitiescreased revenues in H1 :

♥ infrastructure software and services rose 6%

~ PC & third party products increased 14%

- And education software and services grew 15%.

A Year ago, RM put in place a strategic projects team, and here the

Company has scored some significant successes, winning £110m of

South Lanarkshire Council

Turnover Em

RM picSix months to 315! March

Infrastructure software 8. services

Education software 8. services

PC & 3rd party products

S UBTOTAL

Learning Schools Programme

business since the year-end.

These projects added 091m to

turnover in H1, and whilst they are

not going to contribute

significantly to profits during

2003, they help improve revenue

visibility.

They also demonstrate that

RM can put together (or be a

subcontractor in) winning

consortia. On the Classroom

2000 project, RM is

subcontractor to SXS, whilst on

the QCA contract it is prime with

Indian lT services company Tata

|nfotech,educational

assessment services supplier

ICAA and RM's own subsidiary 3T

Productions working as

subcontractors. The South Yorks

contract will be delivered in

partnership with FD Learning (a

subsidiary of Tribal Group) and

a number of local education

providers,

The focus for H2 is about

"digesting" these wins, and (quite

rightly) delivering » indeed we

were told not to expect many

more wins in the next six months.

The bid pipeline includes threePFl

projects (worth cESOm), but none

of these are going to be awarded

in this financial year.

Simply being in the public

sector is no guarantee of

success, and with school budgets

under pressure from competing

priorities. growth in the education

sector is likely to remain modest

in the year ahead. But RM has got

its house in order. and we will be

disappointed not to see it back

in the black at the year♥end.

9

Page 10: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

10

60%

SYSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

ADimension Data. which highlights its

key differentiator in these tough times as

☜the ability to provide cost-effective

application network solutions to a global

client base". has announced results for the 550'"

UK IS BEST OF MIXED BUNCH AT DIDATA

DiData: Operating profit/loss by

geography (H1 02 vs H103)

38.1

six months to Gist Mar 03. Total turnover 540'☜

for the period was down 8.1% to $1bn 530'☜

compared to the same six months in 2002, 520m 13 910.9120 .15

whilst an operating pro t before goodwill sum 55 u ☁h☁ ☜45

and exceptionals in H102 was converted sum [♥ no _i 1 U"

to a loss of $7.0m. The loss was attributed 510,☜ l L] M

to pressure in the US and Asian markets. 5mm "☁ 5 41.475

Pre-tax losses were $194.6m (H102: $30".

$693.3m) after exceptional costs of K00, vi)» (as 692 bus 1g, ☁3} cos

$22.9m (H102: $850.8m). which Included ☁r vs☜ (a {55☂ be

severance costs, write-off of capital assets 1,3,5? (30" ge☁e

and investment write-down and impairment (9☁? Q

of goodwill. The loss per share for the

period was 14.50 compared to 53.6c in

H102.

All regions other than the US were pro table at the operating level. in the

UK, turnover increased by 10.6% to $114.1m compared to the same six

months in 2002 (and up 24% compared to the previous six months) re ecting

a "good performance in the Network Integration business". Operating pro t

was up 10.7% to $4.6m (H102: $4.2m) with operating margin unchanged at

4.1 %.

Across the service offerings in the UK (and compared to the previous six

months), product revenues were up 02% at $87.4m. managed services

revenues (☜process driven revenues of a recurring nature☝) were up 26% at

$52.9m and professional services revenues doubled to $23.7m.

Chairman, Jeremy Ord, commented, ☜Going forward, our challenge is to

continue to work harder and smarter to return loss-making operations to

pro tability increase client penetration, grow sales and margins and enhance

the value of our proprietary technology and brands".

Comment: DiData must have been disappointed to report an operating

loss (BEFORE exceptionals and goodwill), but the headline gures mask a very

mixed bag of regional results. The UK was one of the bright spots reporting a

27% increase in constant currency revenues. This achievement was in no small

part due to the efforts of the new management team, led by UK CE Russell

Bolan, which has focused on enhancing the sale of services and solutions and

improving the contribution from recurring revenues and managed services.

We are pleased to see that in the UK, and across the Group as a whole, the

revenue contribution from services is growing, Total services revenue now

represents some 67% of total UK revenues (43% of Group revenues), up from

59% (35%) in H2 02. And this isn't because product revenues have fallen ♥ the

Group's services revenues also grew in absolute terms, from $370m to $422m.

Despite the growth of services. gross margins at the UK business have

fallen in from c23% to 019% on a like-for♥Iike basis, the result of an accounting

anomaly (moving certain personnel costs from xed overheads to the cost of

sales line) and the growing contribution from the lower margin FMT business ♥

a mobile switching technology

offering. Revenue levels from the

FMT business are capped. however,

and 0rd assures us that the UK's

gross margins are not expected to

deteriorate any further.

Going forward, we expect the

UK business to continue to focus

on managed and professional

services and to work on growing

its customer base♥which may well

mean trying to tap into the public

sector, one of the few growth areas

at the moment. The UK call centre

business, The Merchant's Group,

also has potential for growth

following a number of recent

contract wins.

At the Group level. the picture is

much less rosy. in fact, the UK was

the only region to grow operating

pro t relative to the same period last

year. And if the UK was the bright

spot, then the US was a black hole,

turning a $116K pro t in H1 02 into

a $11.5m loss. The network

integration business, which is heavily

reliant on the nancial services sector

in New York, was particularly badly

affected, reporting a 24% drop in

revenues. Ord claims he is

[continued on page eleven]

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1%

97p

[continued from page ten]

monitoring the performance of the US division on a month-by-month

basis and ☜will act accordingly". DiData is reluctant to give up its US

business. which it sees as key to its global offering. But. unless there

are signs of improvement in the next few months.we believe the

management team will have to make some tough decisions about its

US (and possibly Asian) businesses - and sooner rather than later if

they are to conserve cash.

The good news. however. is that the management team now seems

prepared to make those tough decisions and is under no illusions about

SYSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

the state of the lT market and its prospects.

0rd acknowledged the fact that the market

has shrunk and changed. "/Tinvestment will

be subdued for quite some time to come."

he said. adding: ☜we do notsee a change in

the foreseeable future". But having ☜cut its

cloth☜. DiData is determined to make the

best of it going forward.

We wish them well.

REASONS TO BE CHEERFULmmt

MMT Computing has released its interim results for the six

months to 28☁☜ Feb. 03. Turnover fell 14% on the same period last

year to 俉12.5m. Last year's £93K PBT became an LBT of £266K

♥ exceptional items and goodwill amortisation contributed £155K

to this figure. Loss per share worsened to 1.9p, compared to last

year's loss of 0.3p (after exceptional items and goodwill).

Commenting on the outlook. Chairman Tom Hall said: ☜There is

a strong pipeline of current key prospects and we are confident

that the product will become the international market leader within

the field of utility pricing, In the short to medium term. there

does not appear to be any major recovery within the lT services

sector. although / remain con dent that we will continue the recovery

when more normal business conditions resume".

Comment: We were slightly disconcerted to read the phrase

☜when more normal business conditions improve" in Hall☂s

statement. Regular readers will know our views on the ☁when

market conditions improve☂ sentiment. However. we believe Hall is

right to expect no short to medium term recovery in the market.

MMT does have some reasons to be positive. however. For a

start. it benefits from a healthy balance sheet. with a net cash

position of 俉6.1m (2002: £6.0m). And its Systems Solutions

Division has managed to double profits to 俉0.28m (before tax and

exceptionals) despite fewer sales opportunities and

continued pressure on fee rates. all of which pushed

turnover for the division down 6% to £8.9m. This

division is also expanding into the public seetor. oneof the few growth areas.

MMT's other two divisions ♥ Packaged Solutions

and Management Consultancy ♥ faired less well:

» Packaged Solutions returned to an operating

loss of £0.37m (before tax. exceptionals etc.). having :aTk☁aged. 0 U Ions

made a small (£0.08m) profit last year. The high cost 23% (27%) \☁\

of developing PowerQuote Universal coupled with

reduced demand for enhancement work. are putting

pressure on the division and future success will depend

on converting its "strong and sizeable prospect

pipeline" into sales.

- Similarly. Management Consultancy suffered from

its exposure to the insurance market and

made a small (俉0.02m) operating loss.

BREAK AND SELL

OPPORTUNITY

We☂ve said before that MMT's three

divisions look like a good break-and-sell

opportunity and this view hasn't changed.

The Packaged Solutions division might

appeal to a number of candidates. includng

LogicaCMG (a services partner of MMT in

the energy sector). And the Management

Consultancy operation might suit an lndian

offshore player looking for a front~end into

the UK insurance and banking sector. We

think these sorts of decisions need to be

made sooner rather than later.

MMT Computing - H1 03 business mix by activity

Total: £12_5m (2001 :214.6M)

M anagement

Consuliacy

6% (9%)

Systems Solutions71 % (64%|

11

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1

(9%

SYSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

Comino, provider of software solutions for social housing, local

government and occupational pensions administration. has reported a

promising set of results for the year ended 31" Mar. 03. Revenues are up 19%

on FY02 to £24.5m and last year's £576K pre-tax loss was converted into a

PET of £1,2m. As a result, EPS came in at 8.913, compared to FY02☂s 3.5p

loss.

Comino's Social Housing and Local Government divisions bring in the

majority of its revenues (accounting for 42% of turnover each) and between

them account for nearly all of the operating pro t. The pro t split between the

two is currently weighted towards Social Housing, but Comino expects Local

Government☂s share to increase as its recurring revenues grow and operating

margins improve.

The Occupational Pensions division is still struggling, however, returning an

operating loss as a result of ☜the much publicised problems with the pension

industry☁ and extensive product development in the period.

Network services provider Comino Connect, reported revenues of £1 .3m

and made a small pro t of £50K. Similarly, Comino Tech ow, the business that

is now largely based on providing consultancy and management reporting to

Comino's customer base, is ☜aimed at early breakeven and pro tability't

Commenting on the results. David Quysner, Chairman, said: ☜The results

COMINO FINDS ITS NICHE

Camino Group pl:10 Venr Revenue and PET Record

Relative to19945n

n Routine (Em) I PET (any,

u: 17m ☜7 ☁

H ☁=5 ☁1" ..

mu ms rm rm ma um 2m mi zoo: 2003

v... "an; am an

Atos

Orlg☁☜ MODERATEDAtos Origin has reported results for the rst quarter, including the contribution

from KPMG Consulting's UK and Netherlands☁ operations. Revenues for the

three months to 31 st Mar. 03 totalled Eur781 m, a proforma increase of 4.2%.

However, excluding KPMGC. revenues fell 6.5% on a like-ior~like basis ☜re ecting

declines of 70% and 4% in SI and Managed Operations respectively", UK

accounted for 11.5% of group revenues. Atos Origin is still projecting ☜modest

reported revenue growth" this year, mainly from the consolidation ofAtos KPMGC

"offset by some revenue erosion in Si and the adverse impact of exchange rate

movements". Managed Operations revenues have "stabilised",

Comment: Atos Origin☂s SI business includes application management (which

were achieved in an uncertain

economic climate and in a dif cult

period generally for the software

and computer services' sector.

Against this backdrop, the results

are very positive and demonstrate

the potential for sustainable

pro tability and growt

Comment: Comino seems to

have found its niche in Social Housing

and Local Government. Both

divisions are doing well with order

books that are up by 102% and

1 17% respectively on the same time

last year, It is also good to see the

Local Government division return to

pro tability. Comino is partnering

with facilities management players,

such as BT and Steria, in local

government (as well as winning

contracts in its own right), in other

words. it has stuck to what it's good

at and not tried to provide its own

FM facilities. This sensible move is

beginning to pay off ♥ Comino has

already signed contracts with Luton.

Bexley and Rotherham as a result.

The Group's next challenge will be

to "manage [Occupational Pensions]

back to profit". This will not be an

easy task in the current market -

perhaps Comino would be better

to focus all its efforts on social

housing and local government.

ATOS ORIGIN: OUTSOURCING GROWTH HAS

we treat as outsourcing) so we would

expect the ☁true' consulting & SI

perfOrmance was even worse than

the 10% decline reported. Even so,

growth in outsourcing has clearly

moderated, and this is pretty well the

case for most of the other major

players. indeed, we will be re ecting

this in our new market forecasts due

out in mid-June.

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SVSTEMHOUSE 1 3JUNEZODS

080: RESULTS AND DEALS BRING CHEER

080 was the last of the

☁majors' to announce full year

results. Worldwide revenues for

the year ended 31st Mar. 03 were

down fractionally (-0.3%) to

$11.35bn although in constantcurrency the drop was more like

8.3%. But on the very bright side,pre-tax income rose 23% to

$612m. lifting margins from 4.4%to 5.4%.

080 chairman and CEO Van

Honeycutt reported signs of

☜stabilisation☝ in consulting and

system integration (C&Sl) in North

America ♥ butnot so in Europe

and Asia. However. European

outsourcing gave a "solid

performance☝ and as a result.

European revenues grew 1.6% to

$2.98bn.

As for the UK, we've been

speaking to CSC UK COO Keith

Wilman and at first blush it looks

like the company grew its UK

revenues about 1% last year. This

still leaves them a few pounds

short of the ☁magic billion' (we

reckon £995m).

The UK business grew profit

around 20%. but Wilman was at

pains to point out that this was

not due to "slash and burn☜.

Indeed, headcount if anything is a

little up onthe year. mainly as a

result of new business signed at

the likes of Dept. Health. Belron.

Dun 8. Bradstreet andBombardier.

CSC UK

10 year Revenue growth

Esasm Esssm

£54m£755.☜

£63m

£50mEllim

E284"!:nsm

tum

1994 1995 1596 ☁997 1998 1999 2mmYou-nanny autu-

20m 2002 2003

As expected, outsourcing drove 080 in the UK ~ we estimate their

outsourcing revenue grew around 3% to cESQSm. mitigating a c15%

drop in C&Sl revenue to around £100m. Of course. revenues will receive

a considerable boost this FY from the Royal Mail mega-deal. as announced

this month. It☁s worth aboutE900m over ten years to the company. with

the other Prism Alliance partners BT and Xansa picking up £450m and

ElBOm respectively,

CSC also unveiled a E450m/10 year outsourcing contract with troubled

telecoms supplier Marconi. covering IT help desk. desktop computing.

networking and midrange operations. CSC will also develop and maintain

software applications and provide telecommunications services (via BT.

subcontracting to 080).

In other news this month. 080 also featured in the Radii Consortium.

along with BT. CGE&Y and Thales UK, This alliance announced it will be

bidding for UK MoD Defence Information Infrastructure (Dll) managed

services work.

It☁s clear CEO is already benefiting from the shift towards ☁multisourcing'

in the UK outsourcing market. While ☁onesource' deals ♥ such as CSC's

own new Marconi contract ♥ will remain a feature of the lT services

landscape. Ovum Holway believes more and more business is set to be

granted to consortia. With its record in partnering to win deals in the UK

so far, not to mention its stakes in Radii and the Fusion alliance (which we

reckon has a chance of winning the Inland Revenue Aspire deal). 080

looks as well placed as any of the majors to remain a key bene ciary of the

multisource trend.

@ NO RELIEF FOR IT INVESTMENT COMPANIES

return over the year.Full year results from 3i (to 315☁ Mar. 03) clearly demonstrate the

strain that investment companies are currently under. particularly in

relation to early stage technology investment. The substantial fall in

the value of 3i☂s early-stage technology portfolio (a negative return of

2671 m) was a principal factor resulting in the Group's negative total

A key element of 3i's

strategy is to maintain a

business balance with 40% of

assets in buyvouts, 40% in

[continued on page fourteen]

Page 14: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

1

SYSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

VIVA AVEVA!

Engineering design software company

Aveva Group (nee Cadcentre) has

announced record revenues and pro ts with Aveva G roup Plc

10-year Revenue and PET Record

its latest full year results. Revenues for the

year ended 31st Mar, 03 grew by 13% to

Est-3m, operating pro ts rose 14% to £5.62m

(a 15.6% margin), pre-tax pro ts grew by 13%

to £5.58m (a 15.5% margin) and EPS

increased by 9% to 21 .24pi What is more. all

the growth was organic.

Aveva's UK business was the star,

growing revenues by 36% to £6.3m,

mitigating a 5% drop in revenue to £11m in

the rest of EMEA. The Americas revenue

jumped 23% to 910.1 m and Asia/Paci c

turnover grew 17% to £8,5m,

It is little wonder that Chairman Richard King has "con dence in being able

to sustain satisfactory progress in the coming year☝,

Aveva has also done a pretty good job of moving towards a licence rental

model. Recurring licence fees increased 13% to £20.9m, with initial licence

fees growing 14% to £9.2m. Services revenues increased by 12% to £5.9m,

helped along by its new managed service business, which got off to a good

start with a $13m/3 year contract with DuPont signed in Jun. 02,

However, the company☁s edgling consulting business has sailed into the

doldrums, so it has cut back staff in that area ☜to the point where any

engagements can be handled with resources drawn from elsewhere in the

group☂t

Comment: Excellent results from a company that has increased pro ts

steadily since 1996, just a couple of years after its MBO. To achieve double-

digit revenue and pro t growth organically in a tough year like 2002 is pretty

amazing. They seem to have the formula right. A good geographical spread of

business. a decreasing dependence on lumpy initial licence fees. and a modest

D Revenue (Em) I PBT (Em)

«in ms nu Iva

[continued from page minaan]

Relative to 1994

ma

vZ-Z-mmi 11 .1w

s:

in» ma 20m

but growing services business.

In fact, their new managed

services (i.e. application

management) business may well

turn out to be a nice little annuity

earner (though not at software

products margins, of course) as

most of the ☁usual suspect☂ AM

players like Xansa et al would not

have the technical ability to handle

highly complex engineering design

systems,

Aveva's shares rose 12% during

the month .not bad considering they

launched on AIM back in Nov 96 at

just 200p!

growth capital and 20% in

early-stage technology

companies, However, this

balance increased significantly

during 2000 and 2001 and

resulted in the Group's short-

term performance being

damaged.

3i has sought to rebalance

its portfolio and at the end of

Mart 03 had just 15% of its

assets in early stage

technology, investment in early

stage technology over the period was just £176m (compared to

☜mm in 2002 and £923m in 2001), representing just 19% of total

investment.

Interestingly, 78% of this investment was in 3i☂s existing portfolio

as opposed to completely new opportunities This mirrors the trends

highlighted by data provided to us by Cobalt Corporate Finance on

the UK market,

3i has now restructured its early stage technology business so

that it is more narrowly focused on the sectors ☜believed to offer the

best investment opportunities". It is also continuing to develop and

nurture relationships with the larger technology companies as they

are potential customers, partners or ultimate buyers of the individual

portfolio companies.

Page 15: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

SVSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

WMérgers &☁chuisitioins ☁ m

au☁ r v 3" A Jug♥h☜ q!!! ☜☁3☁. ☜n 2'☜ "A 3.:Wylie «scam-m ☁ t,Aspect lnlerner _Nenec Solulions lrorn Nenec Designs. builds a suppens 100% cotton Nenees disposal pills soiuoons businessis oondlrlonal uponHoldings le pic contenhmanagnd corporale shareholder approval This is me only uaoing company wimin me

ponais Group. so assuming approval is given. Nana: will be lanes a cash. 'shall.

Aspect Glaup feluewave Lid (subsidiary nl Web-based business ' 1007p nia Following on irom me aoouislllon olNeltei: SolutionsopseclDanish Maelsk Dale Group) applications and managed announced the merger with me online ac vities niaiuewave,

* services ioriarge cprppraies ,Consolidauen In lne e-ouslness space oonlinues.

Euiovestucll pic rKSSL (principal subsidiary Price managemenland loo-r. ☁Elm Following me sale oiils prinopai operallng suoslolary. KSS proposes'oiknowieogo Supppn optimisation systems lorltle ' le place llseilin voluntary liquidation and reium ils cash ioSystems Group pic) pepeieurn.cnnvenieneerelali snarenoipersiriiornniris isegulvaienllo 135}: per snare-aiar cry

'and leico Industries irorn KSS's noalprice olzzop in Mar. 00. A|M~ilsteo Eulovesisch rst'ceneral Aliaan saan irorn lnvensys EHP sollwaie provider ☁iuu-rs :asnr us privale aqully ilrm. GA. is pelieved lo be pulling lne iinisrllngPartners lpucnes in a deal lo buy saan. GA already owns a numbaroiERP

' piayersln lne rnanuiaccluring sector(SSA Global Technologies andMaples). so Baan will be a good addition in me ponioiio ash is

I reported in have!oslc俉18.3m on c俉155m revenuesln Fvozr

:Marinpreuprr surilng Oller Risk Solunpns Providerolmlid party 74% com Oller is a reoenlly established company. Marlborough mining isunderwrlling and claims risk acquiring aminimum 74% stake (atno cost) hutexnens lo lnveslmanagemenl services lo >20.5m in Otter in now share capital and Inter-company leans They☁insurers. re-insurers and also have the opllon lo buy me minoer snarenoidinps live in ten yearsinlermediaries In me me e. airer the initial InvestmenL

r _ protection markets ' .Noni Anglia ,Vorksnire PosITialnlng Leeds-based sirllis lralning loo-x. nIa Eoucalion and reiaied services provider, Nord Anglia pickeo up VPT,a

1 provider skills and workiorce training company. ipr an undlsdusad sum. YPT' has liBDOK lurnovsrr and delivers lraining or me public and privalo

. ☁ clots. ilw leg d wlttl N ' aclivllies.Tolex pic 'Pwtos Ltd ☁Maiernily |T syslerns 'ioov. ex paid on oompieuon. es. wi orso im

payaple depending on rne level olcash in the business. ier Nonlngnarn.based Prolos, The purchase ills wim Toiax' avalegy or increasing its

- , ☁clinical seilware penipiia organically and by aoqulsilionr:Tauchslnna Group Micreseil GwalPlains Acoounlancy sonware reseller loov. max USDK Touchstone picks up a ciierulisl and a number oiernployees iron. me2 ☁dlvlslon olTanon Group - oeai. II also 'velnlolcas'me company's ppsilion within me Microsoft

Business Solutions market place. 2325K ol me mall. whs☁dsiatfon isy __ , , , V _ _ g I y y I H 'daierrad. payable depenplng on prelilapiliry overmp years

Voivere pic Amey Vacua Ltd (suoslolary Provider oi wnsuliancy r. 100% [Eur 'Troubled support services player Amey. signalled its inlenlion looMmay pic)

defense a other nlgnlyrepulaled sectors

technical services ip lireprocess,

dispose oimls subsidiary back al its inlerims (Sepoz). Volvere.an~eclr☁yisr invoslorarrd rurnareuno speoalrsl- paid [am In cash. Amayhas the option to subscribe ior 57. In Veopa atdli 5K. car 3 yearsieilpwlng the sale.

nuclear. transport.

GusEDS tumed in a pretty gruesome

- but notunexpected - set of results

for Q1 this month. Although total

revenues for the 3 months to Sist

Mar. 08 grew 2% to $5.37bn. thecompany recorded an operating loss

of $104m compared to a $591mpro t for Q1 02. As a result last year'spre-tax income of $527m tumed intoa pro-tax loss of $164m and netincome of $354m in Q1 02 becamea $126m net loss.

It was EDS' megadeal with theUS Navy that caused most of the grief.with the company taking a $334m

cumulative pro-tax loss EDS does

not expect this contract to turn cash

ow positive until mid♥2004. EDS also

took a $48m pre-tax hit for ex-CEO

Dick Brown's severance deal.

Business performance was also

pretty grim. Contract signings were

down nearly 60% to $Sbn. although

NAW ADDS TO EDS☂S BLUES

we should bear in mind that EDS is being a bit more selective aboutwhich deals

it pursues these days.

The core outsourcing business (Operations Solutions) saw at revenues of

$3.58bn (at constant currency) as growth from major deals signed in 2002 was

offset by adecline in business from ex-parent GM, EDS' Solutions Consulting

revenues dropped 7% to $1 .33bn because of ☜the weak economy and the

associatedslowdown in corporate discretionary spending". AT Kearney revenue

fell 14% to $239m for much the same reason. and their edgling software arm,

PLM Solutions. also saw revenue drop 11% to $201 rn (all gures at constant

currency).

New CEO Michael Jordan believes ☜we have now addressed our major

exposures and can focus on growing our core outsourcing business". EDS

gave no guidance for full year outlook. but CFO Robert Swan says that the

company will ☜remain disciplined in pursuing the right business opportunities and

not sacrificing the bottom line to top-line growth",

The good news in all of this is that there were no hidden skeletons that fell out

ofthe cupboard in the wake of Brown☁s departure. But these results paint a bleak

picture for the outlook of the S/ITS sector in 2003. with absolutely no sign of any

upturn in demand. coupled with increasing pressure on margins. Even EDS'

outsourcing revenue growth has essentially stalled, though ♥ asoutlined in our

new Market Trends 2003 research - we are still forecasting that this part of the

UK market will grow overall in 2003, albeit more slowly than in previous years

EDS is dead right to focus on the bottom line and generating cash.

15

Page 16: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

16SYSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

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Note: The companies listed on pages 18-21 are those companies in our S/lTS index with revenue oi >£2m. Also included In our index are: Allaniic Global,BSo B. Eanhpen, Fiast l. Intercede Group, Internal Business Gmup, Knowledge Technulogy Solutions. Netcall, PC Me ' 3 Group. Stile International,Superscape, Systems lntegraxed. Uluasis Gmup, Vlanet Group

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JUNE 2003

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Note: The companies listed on pages 18-21 are those companies in our S/lTS index wilh revenue of >221☜. Also included in our index are: Atlantic Global.

BSoftB, Eanhpon, Flast l. Intemede Group, lntemel Business Group. Knowledge Technology Solutions, Netoall. PC Medics Group, Stile International.

Supamcape, Systems Integrated, Uliresls Group. \ anet Group

17

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18 SYSTEMHOUSE

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Note: Main SYSTEMHOUSE S/ITS Index set at 1000 on 15th April 1989. Any new entrants to me Stock Exchange are allocated an index 01 1000 based on theissue price. The 508 Index is not weighted: a change in the share price 01 the largest company has the same e ect asa similar change for the smallest company.Category Codes: GS = Computer Services SP = Sottware Product R = Reseller A = IT Agency 0 = Other

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Page 19: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

SVSTEMHOUSE 1 9JUN22003

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☜pl CS 367 46 65% 50.66% 253911111140611110 91: 20.55 215.2m 3%☜my, amp cs mm to 7m 40 63.64% 73.3 -21 96111

N016: Main SYSTEMHOUSE S/ITS Index set at 1000 on 15m April 1989. Any new entrants to the Stock Exchange are allocated an index 01 1000 based on the

issue price. The 805 Index is not weighted: a change in tha share price oi the largest company has the same slfect as a similar change for the smallest company.

Categary Codes: GS = Computer Services SP = sohwam Produd H = Reseller A = IT Agency 0 = Other

Page 20: E R Sarchivesit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/V14-N8-JUN-2003.pdf · 2SVSTEMHOUSE JUNE2003 [continued frompageone] beyond will be in very low single digits. Even so, this means

20SYSTEMHOUSE

JUNE 2003

GAlNS 31-May-03 sms Index 3430.04FTSE IT (scst Index nun

lechMARK J 741.31

THE BOARD Frsstou 406570. FTSE AIM 615.30

May has seen further gains across the . SE 5,☜ mm,

' ☁ ' mnnu In (adieu . 俉Iifs'1iidox FIB♥EHETMARTY☁T mboard forthe key Indices, With the markets IL ☜☂4 n é 1 , I 1 0. I! V ,3 Q:

building on the upswing that began in April. Mann (☜t/"5H1! no snow n2) +27.05% .3 53% Mossy. «2.55% any. «0.75%I . From 15m AprBS 443.00% warm

The FISE 100 gamed 350/!» bUt ☜1'5 was From llean so +272.79% amen/aeclipsed by the performance of Ovum 3:; :2:

Hotvvays S/ITS index, which posted a27% From tstJan 93 o115,24% ☜294% «6.31%I From 1lean 94 ☜05.44% 019.02% *8.63%

"59 to 3471- The tGChMARK 100 also From mJan 95 425.79% «42.73% 462m' _ ' ' D me1stJan 96 o51.87% ☜0.25% 6.31% 45.46% '4.55%

performed In May Cllr☁nblrjg /a From 1sthn 97 ☜18.11% 4.21% 4830?: 46.95% 4.02%

during the month ♥ continnIng It was the From IsIJansa «any. 40.77% 41.57% cranes 457.97% 4225*2 From 15! Jan 99 42.93% ~30 34% 43.67% 43.44% 03.24% 4.98%

mm SAOCKS mat lad me Cl'mb' From IstJanOO 40.10% 41.29% 430.23% 433.67% 458.16% 434.479.The 128% improvememfor me FTSE me Isr Jan 01 59.03% 44.61% 40.97% 410.30% 57.21% (56.23%

V From Isuanoz -za 51% 42.02% 49.26% 54.52% 441.47% 21.30%IT (808) Index suggests the smaller S/ITS From lst Jan 03 926.44% 4.23% «5,19% «2.37% 4,05% .1 1.50%

companies have outperformed their larger Ervj yymnw' ☁. were. ☜mmc, A,qu me. am1;.gqugrivals this month. Indeed, May☂s leading . ☜'-~ I, {I☁me ~ ramps .

. . . SysIem Houses 46.4% 41.3% 61.5% (40.5% g 38.4% ☁ 32.6%

risers INCIUded NT Group. Wthh IT srarr Agencia: -7o.5% .75 2% -65.2% 447.2% 6.6% 14.5%Resellers 12.7% 33.8% 1478☜; 21.9%

recorded a 201 % gain and Sopheon, up

110%. Many larger cap companies didn't

do badly either, however. Gresham

Computing, for example, was a star performer climbing 201% while DiData was up 60%.

But not everyone could sharein the good fortune. Xpettise Group was the gloomiest of the SMS pack with a 63% fall to just

1p. Argonaut Games (down 37%) and Knowledge Support SVstsms (down 21%) fared little better. Systems houses were

the best perlormers this month. posting an average 33% gan. Software companies, resellers and ITSAs also managed double digit

increases. As a result, lTSAs are the only group in negative territory for the year so far. at 5.6% below Jan 1st levels.

424%Snitware Products _ y,.Honcy |_nt_smet Indexmoiwcy Vsn'rs Index V I

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