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Dissemination of New Remote Sensing Methodology through aSemi-expert System

PD 13/97 Rev. I(F)

Japan Overseas Forestry Consultants Association (JOFCA)

Forestry Agency, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries,Government of Japan

(e) Starting Date: I September, 1997

coActualDuration: 31months(September 1997toMarch2000)(g) Actual Project Cost: Us$ 545,000 including Project personnel, Sub-contractor, Duty

travel, Consumable items and Miscellaneous, Us$ 51,075 forITTO monitoring, evaluation.

(a) Title :

(b) Serial Number:

(c) Executive Agency:

(d) Host Government:

PROJECTCOllylFLETIONRElPORT

PARTl. EXECUTIVESUMlvlARY

I. Background Information aboutthe Project

- Key problems it intended to solve:

Conventional methods for analysis of the remote sensing (R. S) data require special skills.These skills that are not always available or sufficiently developed in the respective offices/agencies. ITTO Project PD 1307 Rev. I (F) was designed to address this problem bymaking it feasible for planners and forest managers with minimal training in satelliteimagery analysis to produce digitized maps and related information that would otherwise beimpossible for them to accomplish withoutthe assistance of a higlily-trained RS expert orspecialist. To pursue this objective, the project focused on development of a "user-friendly"semi-expert system that would automatically perform the complexprocedures applied by anRS expert/specialist and only require minimal inputs from a plumer or forest manager. Theproject was further designed to disseminate and promote use of the semi-expert system inthe Asia-Pacific (A1P) region. Through these initiatives, it was intended that the use ofsophisticatedRS technology would become the nomi, rather than the exception, in PIaimingand monitoring directed towards the goal of sustainable management intropical forestry.New remote sensing (RS) methodology was developed by JOFCA in the previous ITTOProject PD 32193 Rev. 2 (F). This methodology enables users to rapidly and accuratelyassess and stratify the ground vegetation/forest conditions based on canopy density. It alsofacilities the production of relevant maps and tables. Project PD 1307 Rev. I(F) developeda system for easy application of the new methodology.Accuracy, applicability and practical use of the new RS methodology wasrepeatedly testedby RS expert project counterparts from four (4) participating countries (india, hidonesia,Philippines and Thailand). Tests were conducted in different forest types and operatingenvironments, with varying levels of computer hardware capacity. Despite these variables,results of the tests confinned the capability of the new methodologyto provide accurate anduseful infonnation. The tests demonstrated a very close co-relation of results obtained

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through satellite imagery analysis and results produced by conventional ground-borneanalysis. Funherrnore, the total number of hours and costs required to complete the analysiswere dramatically reduced. These results were presented at an international workshop heldin July-August 1996 in Bangkok where the new RS methodology was given the name"Forest Canopy Density Mapping (FCD) Model".

During the workshop the FCD Model was recognized as a powerful tool to assess andmonitor ground conditions from a forestry management perspective. In order to transfer thenew RS technology from the JOFCA project team to Grid users, workshop participantsproposed development of a semi-expert system that would package the FCD Model inCD-ROM format to facilitate application of the model throughout the NP region. Theparticipants further proposed implementation of training courses to 61ucidate thefundamental concepts of the FCD Model, teach the operational techniques and otherwisedisseminate the semi-expert system to potential users'

- Specific Objectives and Outputs:

Project PD 1307 Rev. I (F) was formulated in response to proposals presented at theBangkokworkshop to pursuethe specific objectives, andproduce the specific outputs, listedhereunder:

I) Objective I:

Output I:

2) Objective2:

To develop a Semi-expert System which will facilitate utilization of theFCD Model by piaimers, foresters and decision-makers.

Development of a semi-expert system for satellite imagery analysisand that would package the software of the FCD Model in CD-ROMformat.

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Output 2 :

3) Objective3:

To disseminate the system to senior-decision makers intrie A1P region,thereby enhancing awareness of the potentials inherent in RStechnology in general and the semi-expert system in particular.

Seminars and orientation meetingstargeting senior decision-makers asthe principal audience.

To train key persons in the principles, algorithms and operatingtechniques of the FCD model, as well as application of the semi-expertsystem in forest management.

Trained key persons who can further disseminate the system astralnersin their respective countries, equipped with appropriate training toolsand references including textbooks and manuals.

Output 3:

- Strategy adopted in carrying out the project

In order to achieve efficient project management and an optimum level of outputs, theproject strategy incorporated the basic features of the strategy that had previously provedeffective in implementation of Project PD 32193 Rev. 2 (F), during which the FCD Modelwas developed. Directresponsibility was assigned to a project core group (CG) composed

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ofJOFCA staff. They were supported by higlily-competent RS experts from four (4) NPcountries. These experts were identified as project counterparts and designated as extensioncore group (ECG) members to work in close collaboration with the CG. Accordingly,JOFCA nominated the same RS experts that had participated in Project, PD 32193 Rev. 2 (F).These experts were already familiar with the FCD Model. Their specific roles were to (i)help identify appropriate technical specifications for the system, (ii) test the trial version ofthe system at theirrespective laboratories and (iii) provide comments or criticisms on utilityand operational functions in order to upgrade the system and produce a final version.

Identification of the institution that would organize and execute the training component wasanother vital issue in formulating the project strategy. Towards this end, the first task wasestablishment of criteria for selection of a competent institution. After careful deliberation,the CG and ECG members reached a consensus that training objectives would be bestachieved by an institution with the following characteristics: (i) a structure that isuniversally open to participants from ITTO member countries, (ii) an adequate number ofhighly trained staffthat could be appointed as lecturers, and (in) staffttiat are familiar withthe FCD Model. After considering several options, the CG selected the hadian institute ofRemote Sensing (11RS) to conduct the training in collaboration with the Center for SpaceScience Technology Education in Asia and the Pacific (CSSTE-AP).

The strategy envisioned that trainees who learned the fundamental concepts of the FCDModel and the operational techniques of the semi-expert system would be future trainers intheir respective countries. In this regard, formulation of selection criteria for candidates toattend the training was another important issue. JOFCA established key criteria that weredisseminated by mail to the bigliofficials responsible for choosing the nominees.

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- The project's planned duration and planned overallcosts:

Implementation was initially planned for completion in two years eightmonftis (32 months),at an estimated cost of Us$ 596,075.00 including Us$51,075.00 for the services of anorganization appointed by ITTO to independently monitor and evaluate performance. Thefinal result was completion in 32 months with a cost overrun of Us 1,832.52 indicated intriebalance sheet as of 14 April, 2000. The small difference between piaimed and actual costswas contributed by JOFCA as its share.

2. ProjectAchievememts

- Outputs Achieved:

I) As envisioned, the projectdeveloped asemi-expertsystem for application of the FCDMapping Model that was previously developed by Dr. Atsushi Rikimaru in ITTOprojectP032/97 Rev. 2 (F). The system consists of computersoftware containing thealgorithms and other formulas utilized for analysis of satellite imagery data tocompute values of each index in the FCD Mapping Model. All additional functionincluded in the package is a capability for nomialization of RS data. The systemmakes it feasible for an operator to analyze RS data from satellites without assistancefrom a highly-trained RS specialist.The system is packaged in CD-ROM fomiat and is formally identified as FCD-

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Mapper. This final version (Version 1.15) was completed in January 2000. It is arefinement of the earlier version 1.0 that was used and tested during the trainingcourse held in India in November-December 1999.

2) Orientation meetings to help disseminate the system were carried outthrough contactmissions to co India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in November 1997, (ii) thePhilippines during the 1st ECG meeting in February 1998, and (in) Laos in August1998 after the 2"' ECG meeting at Bangkok.

Responding to arequest from the Malaysian Center for Remote Sensing (MACRES),a one day seminar was conducted at its headquarters in August 1998. This providedan opportunity to explain and demonstrate the proposed features of the system toMACRES staffin anticipation of theirrole in a Senior Decision-makers seminar thatwas scheduled for implementation at Kuala Lumpur in June 1999.

The SeniorDecision-makers Seminarwas convened asscheduled. It was attended bytwenty five (25) participants, comprising high-ranking forestry officials from twelve(12) countries, along with engineers and RS experts from Malaysia. The seminarpresented the concepts of the FCD Model and demonstrated the outputs processed bythe FCD-Mapperto senior country representatives of the forestry sector in the A1Pregion. The seminar also illustrated the value of the FCD-Mapper and its usefulnessin the formulation and monitoring offorest rehabilitation progi'animes. in addition,the seminar created an opportunity for 10FCA to personally request decision-makersto selectthe best candidates available in each country to attend training in operationof the FCD-Mapper.

3) The training component of the project was conducted at Dentadun, india inNovember-December 1999. Twenty-five (25) participants from thirteen (13) A1Pcountries and one (1) representative of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (F'AO)in Bangkok were trained to use the semi-expert system, and eventually replicate thetraining for peers in their respective countries and agencies. All operation manual forthe FCD-Mapper was prepared by Dr. A. Rikimaru in collaboration with other CGand ECG members. The manual has a unique fomiat. One page depicts the computerscreen while the marriediately facing page contains a step-by-step list of instructions.This fomiat is expected to help end-users understand and teach the FCD mappingprocess.

In collaboration with Dr. P. S. Roy, who is the Dean of 11RS and amember of the ECGteam, Dr. Rikimaru also prepared a complete textbook for the training course. Thisdocument includes sections on remote sensing technology applied in forestmanagement and the concept and algorithms of the FCD Model, along withinstructions on operation of the FCD-Mapper. Replication of operating instructions inboth the manual and the textbook will help the trainees replicate the training to othersin the future.

- Specific Objectives Achieved:

The project was designed to: (i) develop a semi-expert system that would facilitate use ofthe FCD Mapping Model, (ii) disseminate the system to senior decision-makers and others,

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and (iii) train operators from twelve NP countries to both use the system and to teach thesame skill to their associates. All of these objectives were achieved.

ECG members played a int\jor role in the development process. Their participation inidentifying specifications of the system and its operational functions helped ensure that thesystem was tailored to meet the needs of developing countries, within the context ofdifferent forest types, computer hardware capabilities and country-specific objectives. ECGmembers tested the system independently under real-world conditions. This providedhands-on experience that was relayed to the CG in the fonn of suggestions, comments andcriticisms that were taken into account during each succeeding phase of revision andupgrading of the system. As the final output in respect of project objective (1), the FCD-Mapper is a powerful and "user-friendly" tool that expands the opportunity to utilize RStechnology in day-to-day forestry sector operations.

As earlier discussed herein, dissemination was accomplished in formal and informal venues.The senior decision-makers seminar and training at Dehradun comprised the fonnalapproach, contact missions allowed the same objective to be pursued in a rather infonnalmariner, while the specialseminar for MACRES and CGIECG meetings combined bothforrnal and infonnal approaches to project objectives.

- Contribution to the Achievement of the Development Objective:

The overall development objective of ITTO is sustainable management in tropical forestry.Towards this end, the specific objective of this ITTO projectisto help upgrade the piarmirigcapacity of decision-makers in forestry management and increasethe inforrnation collectingcapability offoresters while concurrently reducing costs and saving time. Development ofthe FCD Model and its dissemination contribute to these objectives. Given its "user-friendly" features, the FCD-Mappaer is a powerful tool for both facilitating and expandingaccess to a rapidly-evolving technology that will undoubtedly move forward toward higherlevel of achievement and precision in the years ahead.

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3. TargetBemeficiarieslnvolvement

Participation by ECG members at each stage of development ensured that an influentialteam of target beneficiaries was directly involved in the project. Among others, the ECGmembers conducted tests in theirrespective countries. These initiatives provided forums formeaningful discussion with in-country associates thus creating opportunities forthe latter toshare in the development process.

As initially conceived intrie projectproposal, nine (9) ITTO member countries and one nonITTO member country in the A1P region were identified as target beneficiaries, i. e. China,Firi, india, hadonesia, Laos (non-member), Malaysia, Myalumar, Philippines, Papua NewGuinea and Thailand. Shortly after beginning implementation, it became apparent to CGand ECG members that involvement of additional countries would be desirable. increasingthe number of involved countries was perceived as one way to maximize dissemination.This option was the subject of several discussions between ITTO and JOFCA aimed atexploring whether flexibility to expand the projectscope in tenns of participating countrieswould be fisasible withoutjeopardizing the achievement of project objectives.

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The first opportunity to testthis option came at the senior decision-makers seminar in KualaLumpur during which the projectreceived additional guests from Australia, Cambodia andFAO-RAP. The success and benefits of this initial step towards broader involvement ledeventually to expansion of the Dehradun training course to include two (2) trainees fromNepal, a country that was not mentioned in the original plan of the project proposal.

Consistent with the overall and specific development objectives mentioned above, planmersand decision-makers in forest management are expected to be principal target beneficiaries.Involvement is expected to continue as the persons trained at Dehradun begin to teach newskills to theirpeers, and to the extentthat decision-makers promote use of the FCD Model intheir respective countties.

4. Lessons Learned

a) Development Lesson

Aspects of project design which most contributed to its success or failure inachieving the development objective.

The benefits derived from organization of the ECG further validated previous experience inFD 32193 Rev. 2 (F). Additionally, inclusion of the ECG had positive impacts on technologydissemination. As intended in the design, the ECG was composed of highly-competent RSexperts in their own countries who were involved in the previous project, namely: Dr. P. S.Roy, Dean of IRS, india, Dr. Surachai Ratanasennpong, Senior Research Scientist of theNational Research Council of Thailand (NRCT), Mr. Virgilio F. Busa, Director of theNational Mapping and Resource information Agency (NAMRIA), Philippines and Mr.Ruandha Agung Sugardiman, RS analyst, Ministry of Forestry and Estate Crops ofIndonesia. Theirvaluable contributions provid a clear demonstration that it pays to build onpersonal contacts, in addition to previous advances in technology.

Criteria established and applied in the identification of a training institute and the selectionof trainees provide valuable lessons that can be used in any future replication of similarinitiatives.

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- Changes in intersectorallinks which affected the project's success.

As mentioned in Section 3, the target group of countries originally envisioned in the projectdesign was expanded during implementation. This had a positive affect on success of theproject. intersectorallinks were enhanced as a result of direct participation by MACRESand 11RS. Both of these institutions provide inputs to development PIaming on a nationalscale, cutting across several sectors, in particular forestry, agriculture and environmentalmanagement.

- Additional arrangements that could improve cooperation between relevant partiesinterested in the project.

Contact missions dispatched to cooperating governments in earlier stages of the projectwere not envisioned in the original plan. furlong others, the missions helped stimulatecooperation by government agencies in the countries visited. Similarly, response to aspecial

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request from MACRES for orientation on the FCD Model and demonstration of the FCD-Mapper, enhanced cooperation in hosting of the senior decision-makers seminar.Replication of these arrangements is worth consideration in the future.

One of the most promising additional arrangements would be implementation of projectsproposed by specific countries in application of the FCD-Mapper. The potential for sucharrangements was emphasized by ITTO officers at the Kuala Lumpurseminar and on otheroccasions. Country representatives were in fact encouraged to prepare and submitproposalsto ITTO. If interested parties respond positively, and their proposals are approved andfunded, this would create new opportunities for cooperation.

- Factors which will most likely affect project sustainability and completion.

Two factors, highly-relevant to sustainability are: (i) the training of trainers who are nowequipped with the knowledge required to teach others and (ii) evidence that dissemination isbeginning to create a demand for copies of the FCD-Mapper.

The Dehradun training course issued graduation certificates to twenty five (25) traineesfrom twelve countries in the A1P region and one from FAO-RAP. The project anticipatesthat these trainees will use the FCD-Mapper in their work, and also teach their associateshow to apply the semi-expert system. This will expand the network of users and therebysustain what has been started by the project.

In respect of the other factor just mentioned, JOFCA has already received numerousrequests for copies of the FCD Mapper. This indicates interest in the semi-expert system andthus good prospects for sustainability.

However, among all factors that can impact favorably on sustainability, the most promisingis the system itself. The capabilities built into FCD-Mapper help ensure that this powerfultoolwill continue to be used, not only due of its technical soundness and ease of app. Iication,but also because of the savings in costs and time that can be realized.

by Operational Lessons

- Project organization and management

The project was executed by a Core Group (CG) composed of 10FCA experts.Responsibilities of the CG included (among others) organization of Steering Committeemeetings and maintaining effective communication with the concerned ITTO officers.Through periodic meetings and regular correspondence, ITTO and JOFCA were able todiscuss progress, constraints and other issues relevant to sound management andappropriate decisions. Similarly, meetings and correspondence between CG and ECGmembers helped keep the project on track. Results demonstrated that the respectiveinvestments in costs and time were definitely worthwhile and should be included in anyfuture initiative.

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- Project documentation

At each stage of implementation, the executing agency produced timely documents forsubmission to ITTO, including minutes of meetings and reports on specific activities.JOFCAalso provided drafts of the textbook forthetraining course andthe operation manual

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to ITTO, ECG members and relevant institutions. This helped fosters close collaborationand a clear understanding of project activities among all concerned.

- Monitoring and evaluation

From the management point of view, periodic monitoring and evaluation of projectimplementation were carried out at the Steering Committee meetings. Concurrently, ECGmembers took part in technical evaluation of the FCD-Mapper, through testing in theirrespective laboratories, and subsequently forwarded their conmnents/criticism to the CG.Monitoring and evaluation inputs from both of these sources, along with recommendationsfor improvement were reflected in appropriate measures applied by the CG team. Sustainedinternal evaluation was crucial and useful in development, refinement and upgrading of thesemi-expert system.

mindependent external evaluation was carried out by an RS expert from the ITC ofNetherlands in March 2000. The expert, Dr. Yousif A. HUSsin, visited JOFCA's Tokyooffice for substantial discussions with the CG members. He also attended the final SteeringCommittee meeting held on 14 March 2000. As part of the evaluation process, Dr. HUSsincommunicated with some of the Dehradun trainees to solicit their comments and insightsResults of this evaluation can help guide future development of new RS methods.

- Quality of planning

During project implementation, no significant operational lessons emerged in respect ofproject planning. This indicates that the original plan was fairly well-fonnulated with regardto the objectives of the project.

- Definition of the roles and responsibilities of the institutions involved in projectimplementation

Results of the contact missions demonstrated the need to allocate time and resources to

clearly define roles and responsibilities. The success achieved at the senior decision-makersseminar and in the training prograinme was due in large measure to early and frequentcontact with MACRES and 11RS/CSSTE-AP respectively. This lesson applies not only toinstitutions but also to other involved participants, in this case the ECG members. Roles andresponsibilities of the ECG were incorporated in the project proposal and defined in theproject plan. However, it was only during joint CGIECG meetings that relevantissues andconcerns were finally resolved and clarified.

- Actions to be taken to avoid variations between planned and actual implementation(schedule, cost, etc. )

Given the absence of any factor that would have led to significant variations, there was noneed to institute corrective actions or avoidance measures. Contact missions were the onlyina, jor activity not originally envisioned in the project design. ITTO approval to proceedwith the missions was obtained prior to their being carried out.

It should be noted however, that actual expenditure was not totally consistent with theoriginal budget composition. The int!jor reasons were; (i) increase of personnel cost due toparticipation of an assistant project leader to the CG, (ii) reduction of duty travel costs by

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taking advantage of heavily-discount airline tickets, and (iii) the absence of some decision-makers at the Kuala Lumpur seminar in K. L. All of the above contributed positively toprojectimplementation. Consequently, no corrective/avoidance measures were applied.

- External factors that influenced the project implementation that could not havebeen foreseen.

No external factors had any significant influence on project implementation.

5. Recommendations

Technology development was a major focus of this project. kithis context, substantialsupport from ECG counterparts was essential forefiEective and efficientprojectmanagement.Given the likelihood of future initiatives in the field of remote sensing as applied to forestry,that same situation will hold true. Projects of this nature should include a int^jor role forparticipating country experts. Without their inputs it will be difficult to formulate anddevelop systems that respond in practical ways to needs and realities in the field. filthisregard, selection of counterparts should be guided by clear and carefully-considered criteriain order to enlist the cooperation of competentpersonnel. While the technical background ofproposed candidates must be taken into account, it is equally important to give higherpriority to field experience than to academic qualifications in the selection/identificationprocess.

Regarding seminars and training courses, a joint approach to organization andimplementation, involving both the training institution and the executing will contribute tomore productive management and outputs. Furthermore, collaboration in this area ishighly-relevant to the issue of sustainability. Training institutions are concerned withimparting knowledge while executing agencies focus primarily on application. Perspectivesand insights from both of these sectors should be reflected in the appropriate design oftraining courses.

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PARTll. MAINTEXT

I. Project Content

Technology development was one of two principal components of this project. It wasattained through developing a semi-expert system containing the fomiulas, algorithms andprocedures of the FCD Model and packaging the system in CD-ROM fomiatto facilitateeasy access and use. The final output of technology development was the FCD-Mapperthatsignificantly reduces the complex procedures of satellite data analysis that would have to beapplied by an RS expert/specialist.

mother principal component was to disseminate the FCD Model as a measure of forestresources assessment. The FCD-Mapper became a useful tool that facilitated thedissemination process; it was intended that the use of sophisticated RS technology wouldbecome the noun, rather than the exception, in planning and monitoring for sustainablemanagement of tropical forests. This technology dissemination included a seminar for thesenior decision-makers in forest management and training courses for forest managementofficers as its principal activities.

2. Project Context

ProjectPD 13/97 Rev. I(F) was formulated intriecontextoftwo importantlTTO objectivesdefined in Article lofthe ITTA, 1994:

item 69. ' topromote gadsz!pport research griddevelopmei, twith a view to improvingforest management gad I^fricte, Icy of wood utilization as well as increasingthe cqp@city to conserve grid enhance other forest values in timberproducing Iroptc@!forests, ' and

item 07. ' to encourage members to 8247port grid develop industrial tropical timber7407est@tion gadforest nullogement activities as well OS rehabtlitotton ofdegradedforest!grid; with due regard/67 the intorests of/o001 communitiesdependent onforest resources.

In the context of ITTO criteria, PD 1307 Rev. I(F) was designed to ':!710y, @11importa, at rolein promoting equal parrnersh!;7 between producing Qnd consuming countries" throughdissemination, transfer and extension of new RS methodology developed with ITTOfinancial support. Furtherrnore, the project is consistent with reforestation and forestmanagement components of the ITTO Action Plan and Priorities that endeavorto:

a) Provide ajbn, infordiscussion on ingttersrelated to ironical/orest management, 'by Encourage the develqpme, at of national grid international policies towards

sustainable management of ironical forests grid strengthen the nationalinstitutions re. $!?o728ible, .

41 1488tstprodt, cer countries in the development of legislation gridna!ionQ!landz, sepolicies/brperm@,, gritjbrestestates gridhe!!jin @0081erQting their establishment.

e) Assist in creating@ soto, 1/4/70 b@81810rsot, ridjbrestmonogemeni, ', Promote grid OSstst in develqpme, zt of adequate skills for research grid/br

impleme, nation of forest monogemeizt, '

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h) Eizcoz, rQge the development of SI, stomab/e timber production from treeplantcztio, Is to rehobiliiQie ond manage non/orest grid degraded lands grid toreduce dependency on nomro//brests/or limber supply.

Development and dissemination of a semi-expert system will help ensure compatibilitybetween national and micro-level planning in forest rehabilitation and conservation. Accessto the FCD modelthrough FCD-Mapper offers numerous options for different areas ofapplication that respond to sub-sectoralissues related to sustainable forest management.

Computer compatibility of dataanalysis utilizing the semi-expert system facilitates easy andefficient eXchange of infonnation. Shared knowledge will contribute to "strengthening ondof eve/onine?It of legalframeworks Qinongst relevQiztinsittz, ttons".

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3. ProjectDesigm and Organization

- Adequacy of the results of the identification phase:

Satellite imagery analysis is one of the most powerful and useful components of remotesensing 01^. S) technology. It has been developed and applied in the forestry sector to assessground conditions and monitor change in the status offorestresources. infonnation on thesematters is essential for efficient planming and implementation. However, many countries donot have enough trained engineers and staffto conduct satellite data analysis as a standardoperating-procedure in forestry sectorplaming andmonitoring. This problemwasidentifiedas a serious constraint. It severely limits the ability of some countries to fully utilize RStechnology.

Project results clearly indicate successful conduct of the identification phase. First, itidentified problems that needed to be addressed. Second, the solutions implementedeffectiveIy addressed the problems. The FCD-Mapper facilitates access to the FCD Modelwhile concurrently promoting utilization of this powerful new tool. There have been verypositive responses from potential users, Seminars have increased awareness amongstseniordecision-makers in the A1P region that RS technology can play an important role inachieving forest management goals of their respective countries. Training in use of theFCD-Mapper has created a network of practitioners with both utilization skills and thecapability to transfer technology to their peers.

- Sound conceptual foundation of the project

The following provide evidence that Project PD 1307 Rev. I(F)is conceptualIy sound:

It is a demand-driven project, conceived and fomiulated in response to proposalspresented by A1P country representatives at international workshops conducted duringthe preceding ITTO project.

Development of the FCD-Mapper simplifies dissemination of the FCD Model. Thisenhances PIaming capacity, thereby contributing to the expeditious formulation offorest rehabilitation programs.

Training, seminars and related dissemination activities provided impetus and supportto enhancement of PIaiming and monitoring capability in many A1P countries.

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All of the above are in line with the ITTO Action Plan and Priorities which, amongothers, seek "!o assist in creating a solent;/ic bosisfor sound/brest management".

- Adequacy of time and resources for project formulation

PD 1307 Rev. I (F) was formulated during the final stage of the previous project, takinginto account the results of an internal evaluation and comments received from participatingcountries. JOFCA provided adequate personnel for carrying out Ibnnulation. Otherimportant resources were (i) outputs from the previous project, and (ii) inputs from projectcounterparts who were consulted throughout the formulation process. The initial phase ofproject formulation commenced immediately after a workshop conducted in the previousproject in July-August 1996. Thus, there was adequate time to design the project. Theproject proposal was approved in June 1997 at the 22"' ITTC held in Santa Cruz, Bolivia.Subsequently the 1st installment of project fund was released by ITTO in Augtist 1997. Withmore than one month between approval and release of funds, there was adequate time torefine schedules and the detailed work plan.

-Understanding and appropriateness of the roles and responsibilities of theinstitutions involved with project implementation

Three (3) instittitions were directly involved in project implementation: the indiari instituteof Remote Sensing (IRS);the Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asiaand the Pacific (CSSTE-AP); and the Malaysian Centre for Remote Sensing onACRES).11RS and CSSTE-AP were responsible for training RS experts and practitioners from A1Pcountries. These two institutions share a common compound and facilities, and havecollaborativeIy carried out training programs for many years, It was ensured that allinvolved faculty members fully understood the technology andthe objectives of the trainingcourse. MACRES is a governmental institution responsible for development of RStechnology and promoting its use in national pluming. The instittition was thus well-equipped to fulfill the promotional and dissemination role envisioned for the seniordecision-makers' seminar which it organized and implemented in collaboration withJOFCA.

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- Beneficiary involvement with the project's efforts and actions

Participation by ECG members at each stage of development ensured that an influentialteam of target beneficiaries was directly involved in the project. furlong others, the ECGmembers conducted tests in theirrespective countries. These initiatives provided forums formeaningful discussion with in-country associates thus creating opportunities for the latter toshare in the development process.

Initially, ten (10) countries were identified as target beneficiaries, i. e. China, F^i, india,Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Papua New Guinea and Thailand.Shortly after beginning implementation, Cambodia and Nepal also became included astarget beneficiaries. in addition to these countries, the project kept close association withthe FAO-I^.,\P. Furtherrnore, there was participation of an Australian RS technician at thedecision-makers' seminar.

Consistent project objectives, PIaimers and decision-makers in forest management plannersare expected to be principal target beneficiaries. The agencies and individuals involved in

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the senior decision-makers' seminar, training course, and contact missions all participate inplanning and decision making. Involvement is expected to continue asthe personstrained atthe training course begin to teach new skills to their peers.

4. Projectlmplementation

- The most critical difference between planned and actual projectimplementation

There was no critical difference between planned and actual project implementation.However, refinement of the work plan was considered at each stage aiming at efficientmanagement.

Dispatch of the contact mission was a first modification. While this activity was notincluded in the original work plan, the missions played an important role. Through thesemissions, project management was able to convince collaborating institutions/agencies thatproject objectives were consistent with their needs and would produce outputs they coulduse in their work. The missions were also a practical way to enlist technical assistance andcollaboration through institutional relationships in execution of the project. The one'daywas also included in the work plan and conducted in Kuala Lumpurjust before the 2"' ECGmeeting as preparation for the senior decision-makers' seminar. The seminar was in factrequested by MACE<ES and was carried out successfully. It provided a venue fordemonstrating the value of the FCD Model, and explaining the framework and objectives ofthe semi-expert system, to all participants from the relevant institutions/agencies thatattended. mother activity included was a preliminary visit to IRS to discuss and thanzearrangements for the training program.

Two (2) ECG members were replaced during implementation. The original ECG memberfrom the Philippines was re-assigned by his goverinnent due to new administrativearrangements resulting from a change in national leadership after an election. The originalECG member from hadonesia left his postto pursue a PhD degree. Both of these countriesappointed new ECG membersthat participated actively in the project. Meanwhile, apost ofAssistant Leader was added to the core group (CG) to help Project Leader manage theprojectimplementation

These modifications were discussed at Steering Committee (SC) meetings and approved bythe ITTO.

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- Measures and actions which could have avoided these variations

In respect of the contact mission, this was an initiative taken by project management. inretrospect, the change could have been avoided by including this activity intrie original plan.However, opportunities for improvement almost always emerge during implementation andshould be pursued. in respect of the change of ECG members, this was unavoidable.Changes in personnel assignments are inevitable in any institution/agency due to variousadministrative and other reasons. When this occurred, JOFCA took immediate action bycommunicating with the relevant institution/agency to request replacement by alternativestaff with the pertinent skills. In addition, JOFCA consulted frequently with the ITTOsecretariat whenever there was a need to resolve problems.

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Appropriateness of the assumptions made and correct identification of the risksinvolved

In this context, two assumptions are relevant to specific objectives of the project;

co senior decision-makers would allocate sufficient time to attend the seminar andorientation briefing, and

(ii)participating countries would have adequate computer capability (hardware) toaccommodate the semi-expert system.

Success of the project achievements demonstrates that both assumptions were appropriateand valid.

In respect of risks, project management was concerned that the dissemination goals of thesenior-decision makers might bejeopardized ifthe schedule for attendance was upset due tounexpected changes in the schedules of the concerned decision-makers. This in fact didoccur thus indicating correct identification of risks. Some of the invited senior decision-makers were not able to attend. Fortunately however, their replacements were alsoinfluential and well-placed officers in their respective countries.

- Projectsustainability after project completion as a result of projectimplementation

The principal factorrelevant to sustainability is development of independent capability forfurther dissemination and technology transfer. This was achieved through the trainingcourse. Each trainee was carefully selected by decision-makers of the relevantinstitutions/agencies in the participating countries. Twenty-six (26) trainees, includingparticipants from twelve (12) countries and observers from one national and oneinternational organization, completed the course and received their completion certificates.The participating country trainees now comprise a network of trainers, equipped with theskills needed to train others in their respective countries and thereby share in disseminationof the newRS methodology. Most of the trainees are directly involved in planmingandforestmanagement. This further ensures that the FCD-Mapper will continue to be used, thusfulfilling a ina!jor condition for sustainability.

- Appropriateness of projectinputs

Project inputs may be divided into five (5) categories: (i) staff competent to develop anddisseminate the semi-expert system; (ii) the FCD Model which was an output of theprevious ITTO project; (in) a strong management structure; (iv) skilled personnel from theparticipating countties; and (v) adequate funds to support implementation. All of theseinputs were appropriate and necessary. Items (i), (in) and (iv) were crucial to successfulimplementation. Item (ii), the FCD Model, provided the foundation for development of theFCD-Mapper. Item (v) was applied to support the other items. Project results validate theappropriateness of project inputs.

Decision-makers' seminar and the training course that could have borne unforeseenexpenditure were efficiently managed owing to excellent collaboration of the involvedinstitutions onACRES and 11RS)that contributed human as well as financial inputs to theseevents. Due to increase of the management cost, expenditures of each budget component ofthe project were reviewed and revised in September 1999. All addendum to the project

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including an updated budget was assessed by the ITTO and approved. Upon completion, thetotal expenditure was slightly higher than the approved budget. JOFCA covered the deficitfrom its own resources. The audit report prepared on 19 April 2000 verified that all fundswere utilized in a sound manner.

5. Project Results

- Situation existing at project completion as compared to the pre-project condition

Pre-and post project conditions may be summarized as follows:

Given development of the FCD Modelpriorto projectimplementation, procedures werealready available for conducting satellite imagery analysis relevant to forestry. However,application of the modelrequired the services of personnelwith a relatively high-level oftechnical skills. At project completion, the FCD-Mapper enables users with minimalskills and training to analyze satellite imagery data without external assistance;

Before project implementation, very few senior decision-makers were aware that apowerful new tool for satellite imagery analysis (the FCD Model) had been developed,tested and proven effective. After a series of dissemination activities and completion ofthe project, senior decision-makers from twelve (12) A1P countries know aboutthe FCDModel, and are aware that a semi-expert system for its use (the FCD-Mapper) isavailable to assist them in their work;

Previously, the expert and specialists who developed the FCD Model were the onlypersons competent to transfer the technology. As a result of the project, there is now anetwork of competenttrainers of the A1P region. They have acquired the skills to teachothers and are equipped with teaching aids this requires (i. e. textbook, manual and theFCD-Mapper). Trainees who attended the training courseheld at CSSTE-APIll}^. S, indiain 1999 are now readyto apply the FCD-Mapper intrieirroutine work. Results generatedby this computerized system will help decision-makers take prompt action forrehabilitation or conservation offorest estates in their countries;

After publication of a technical article on the FCD Model and the FCD-Mapper in theITTO Tropical Forest Update (Volume 9, No. 3, 1999), JOFCA has received requestsfrom many countries for copies of the FCD-Mapper. Other requests have solicitedinfonnation about both the FCD Model and FCD-Mapper. These responses indicate akeen interest in and demand for new scientific methods among the institutions/agenciesresponsible for resource management in the world;

The presence of haze and smoke are serious constraints in satellite imagery analysis. inresponse to proposals from senior decision-makers, supported by suggestions from ECGmembers, at6110w-up phase to PD 13/97 Rev. I(F) has been fonnulated to dealwiththeproblem. The new project proposal was approved at the 27'' ITTC in November 1999and the new projectis expected to commence implementation in April2000.

- Extent to which the project Specific Objective(s) was achieved

The project had following three (3) specific objectives; (i) development of a semi-expertsystem, (ii) dissemination of the system to senior decision-makers in the A1P region, and

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(iii)training of trainers to sustain dissemination. All of these objectives were fully achieved.

Impact of the project results on sector programmes; on the physical environment,on the social environment; on the target beneficiaries

Given the technology development and technology dissemination nature of the project, it isnot realistic to anticipate any immediate impacts in the above-identified areas. However,there are already examples of initial impact on sector programs and target beneficiaries intwo countries. The Philippines is currently using the FCD-Mapper to evaluate forestconditions in critical watersheds as part of a national program to improve watershedmanagement. MACRES has signified its intention to apply the FCD-Mapperto assess andmonitor the status of natural forests in Sabali, Malaysia. In the process of carrying outttieseplanming exercises, both countries will benefitftom the savings in costs, time and personnelrequirements made possible by the FCD-Mapper. It is also reasonable to anticipate savingsin the time required to decide on courses of action, given the quick resultsthatFCD-Mapperis able to produce.

Future impacts on the physical and social environments can be anticipated, as informationderived through use of the FCD-Mapper is applied during conceptualization, design,implementation and monitoring of prograinmes and projects.

Project sustainability after completion as a result of project conceptualization;assumptions made and conditions prevailing at completion

Capabilities builtinto the FCD-Mapper help ensure that this powerful tool will continue tobe used, not only due of its technical soundness and ease of application, but also because ofthe savings in costs and time that can be realized. in addition to development of atechnicalIy-sound system, other project components directed towards sustainability werethe training course and the senior decision-makers' seminar.

As mentioned previously, JOFCA has received numerous requests for copies of the FCD-Mapper. Based on these expressions of interest, it seems safe to assume that projectinitiatives will be sustained. Moreover, while PD 1307 Rev. I (F) has been completed,implementation of a follow-up phase to continue further technology development has beenapproved and will soon be launched. The new project willsustain and enhance what hasalready been achieved.

During the training course, a group of knowledgeable practitioners made extensive use ofthe FCD-Mapper(Version 1.0). Iftheyhad discovered deficiencies intrie system, this wouldhave been conveyed to the 11RS faculty or directly to JOFCA. To date, no such criticisms orcomments have been received. Thus, at project completion, the FCD-Mapper is already arobust, developed system suitable for application.

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6. Synthesis of the Analysis

(a) Specific Objective(s) achieved ^Ii^

Partly realizedUnrealized

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(b) Outputs

(c) Schedule

(d) Actual Expenditures

PARTlll. CONCLUTIONSANDRECOMMENDATIONS

(a) Development Lessons

Development of a semi-expert system wasthe principal task given to the executing agency.In order to produce appropriate software, it was essential to accurately identify the needs,demands and constraints of potential users, Through their active involvement andcontributions, ECG members played an important role in this regard. There was nodiscrimination between inputs from either ECG or CG members, and no impediment tofrank and open technical discussions. Consequently, project objectives were fullyunderstood and supported. This had positive impacts on development of the semi-expertsystem.

mother important lesson was that special efforts are necessary to convince forestry sectordecision-makers in participating countries that technical outputs of a project can be usefuland relevant to their objectives. Capturing their interest and obtaining their support is noteasy. But it is essential. Executing agencies must pay attention to and actively solicitcomments and suggestions from senior officers, Actual demonstrations during contactmissions and at other opportunities are important in this context.

The project built on achievements of a previous ITTO project. This aspect of the designmade it possible to move ahead rapidly without incurring the delays nounally expected innew development projects. Future replication of this experience can result in considerablesavings in time and expense.

Criteria established and applied in the identification of attaining institute and the selectionof trainees provide valuable lessons that can be used in any future replication of similarinitiatives. The training course identified strengths and weaknesses that can be considered inthe design and implementation of other projects that include technology as one of thecomponents.

by Operational Lessons

Selection of collaborating agencies is an importantstep that will affect project management.In this project two int\jor events, i. e. (i) decision-makers' seminar and (ii) training coursewere successfully implemented because the respective conchorating agencies (MACRES

R^zad

Partly realizedUnrealized

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Partly realizedUnrealized

Realized

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and 11RS/CSSTE-AP) were competent and efficient. In order to identify the pertinentcollaborating agencies, JOFCA established criteria taking into account technical capacity,management and organization skills and responsible, transparent financial management.Results of the contact missions dispatched by JOFCA demonstrate the importance of apreparatory phase to settle logistic issues and related matters, and to identify gaps that needto be addressed.

(c) Recommendations for the future regarding:

- Project identification

Haze is a crucial issue to consider in further development of RS technology. Haze isprevalent in tropical rain forest areas and is a constraint to accurate RS data analysis. It isprimarily a function of (i) high humidity, (ii) forest fires from jightriing and other naturalphenomena, and (iii) the deliberate use of fire in plantation establishment or shiftingcultivation.

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- Project design

Responses to the problem of haze should be included in project design. Fonnulation of aneffective response is one of the most challenging issues to address. Employment ofRADARSAT data analysis in combination with the FCD Model and the FCD-Mapper isexpected to help resolve or at least minimize this problem, and facilitate reliable analysis ofground conditions in areas affected by haze.

Concurrently, there is also a need to upgrade the FCD-Mapper so that a geo-coordinationfunction will be incorporated in the software. This will facilitate multi-temporal analysis formonitoring change in the status offorestresources.

To summarize, the designofaftitureprojectincludesresearch anddevelopment(R&D) on:(i) development of a new RS based methodology to help monitor and assess groundconditions in areas frequently covered by clouds, haze and smoke; and (ii) upgrading theFCD-Mapper to simplify multi-temporal analysis.

- Project implementation

Careful selection of field sites for tests and application will be an essential ingredient forsuccess in implementation. For this purpose, development of close working relationshipsand enlisting the active support of collaborating agencies will be key objectives to pursue. Inthis regard, obtaining the technical assistance of competent RS experts assigned by theparticipating countries to comprise an extension core group (ECG) will be also crucial forthe executing agency, especially in the development of an upgraded FCD-Mapper,

- Organization

The Steering Committee (SC) and Core Group (CG) will share responsibility in theexecution of a future project. Given the nature and extent of its responsibilities, the SCshould be composed of ITTO officers, representatives of the donor agency and responsibleexperts from the executing agency. IdealIy, composition of the CG should include a TeamLeader, Assistant Team Leader, RS Specialist, Computer Software Specialist and SeniorForestry Expert. ECG membersshould beRS experts who are alreadyvery familiarwiththe

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FCD Model and the operation of FCD-Mapper. Additionally, the participation of each ECGmember should be officially approved by a competent authority of hisAler respectivecountry.

- Management

The SC should have the authority and mandate to direct projectimplementation in a soundmariner. Strategy and directions in project management should be discussed and identifiedby CG and be the subject of frequent consultation with ITTO. If necessary these mattersmay be elevated to the SC. Towards this Grid, there should be regular meetings of the CG,joint meetings between the CG and ECG, and timely, sustained communications betweenCG and ECG members. Decisions should be consistent with agreements reached duringmeetings or through correspondence. Principal responsibility for efficient managementshould rest with the Team Leader.

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Responsible for the Report

Name: SusumuMiyatake

Position held :ITTO Project in Charge ofJOFCA

Date : 21 April, 2000

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