e27 unconference 2009 rafer

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Market Opportunity, not Magic Scott Rafer, @E27 Unconference 2009

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The slides I wanted to use with my keynote.

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Page 1: E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer

Market Opportunity, not Magic

Scott Rafer, @E27 Unconference 2009

Page 2: E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer

Losing unique status

Page 3: E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer

Startup Capitals by 2015London + Tel Aviv Beijing + Shanghai

Page 4: E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer

Startup Capitals by 2020?Bangalore

Buenos AiresSingapore

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Critical mass

Page 6: E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer

Success builds on founder success

Page 7: E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer

Defining success

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Defining two exceptions

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Too unlikely

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Too little benefitto founders

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It’s just math

Page 12: E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer

A few million $ of revenue

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A few$ /user/year

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Small % penetration in years 1 to 3

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Huge audience required

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$ * *

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$2 * 3% * 50M = $3M

Just for example

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Market size matters most

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Only China is big enough

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English-speaking countriesEurope + Middle East

Latin AmericaSouth Asia

Southeast Asia

*Japan and Korea are different

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DVD DRM Regions

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Back to Friendster

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Capture 1 or 2 regions

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Very rough examples to show early scale

Page 27: E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer

$2 * 5% * 200M = $10M

Boring and linear as we like it

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$__ * 25% * 200M = $__M

Huge penetration, but multiplying by zero?

Page 29: E27 Unconference 2009   Rafer

$2 * 2% * 200M = $8M

Scaling from Slovenia

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$3 * 5% * 200M = $15M

Nailed the model & acquired fast

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Copy the German cloners!

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Simplicity is all

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Be late or be boring

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Directories

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Customer Lists

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Analytics

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Assemble and Sell Data

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Happy to help as I have time,@rafer