eai, inc. (energy analysts international) macog_oh...declining u.s. gasoline consumption increasing...

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

EAI, Inc.(Energy Analysts International)

Westminster, Colorado

1


2011 Ohio Freight ConferenceToledo Metropolitan Area Council of

GovernmentsEAI, Inc. (Energy Analysts International)

Joseph J. Leto / [email protected] / 303‐469‐5115

Petroleum Transportation and Logistics:

North America-Midwest-Ohio Perspective

2

mailto:[email protected]


333

Declining U.S. Gasoline Consumption

Increasing Ethanol Use

Biofuels Supply Capability Lags Mandate / RFS Plans

Recovery and growth of On‐Road Diesel Demand

Decline of U.S. Refinery Crude Runs/Potential Closures

Increasing Exports of U.S. Finished Product to Foreign Destinations to Maintain

Refinery Utilization/Profitability

Decline in Refinery Distillate Output Without Continued Investment

Major Shifts in Refined Product Transportation

U.S. Downstream Business Trends and OutlooksKey Drivers for Product Transport/Pipelines


Refining center

Primary pipelineProduct import

Barge movement

MidwestMidcontinent

Gulf Coast

PacificSouthwest

SoutheastSeaboard

Pacific

North

west

Northeast

SeaboardRocky

MountainNorthern

Tier

U.S. Refined Product NetworkPetroleum Logistics in Transition

Product flows / logistics shifting as shown below; Gulf Coast experiencing increases in supply through

displacement, consumption declines and manufacturing increases.

Refiners increasing exports (to

foreign and new domestic destinations), shifting to diesel and reducing runs.

GC-WTX/NM-SCA competing For finite market

Transitioning from Balanced-to-LongCARB cap. a first

GC growing surplus plus

Expansion of CPL-increasing

NES-GC-European competition

Import Pressure

& Refinery Closures

SLC-LV New PL

Refiners

need new

outlets

Puget Sound Refiner

Backed out of LA

Declin

ing

CNV LP

dem

and

&

Favo

rabl

e cru

de p

ricin

g in

nor

th

Resul

ting

in G

C pro

duct

disp

lacem

ent

4


COLONIAL / PLANTATION COLONIAL / PLANTATION

KINDER MORGAN KINDER MORGAN

EXPLOREREXPLORER

Chicago

Lima

HoustonBeaumont

516/356516/356

131/152131/152

103/87103/87

375/408375/408

204/321204/321

TEPPCOTEPPCO

CENTENNIALCENTENNIAL

1486/15951486/1595

315/167315/167

609/962609/962

U.S. Gasoline Flow Outlook Scenario2010/2015, MBPD

Gulf to Midwest Movements Declining‐Pipelines Underutilized; Product Surplus Building in the Gulf Coast

pushing to Foreign markets, Florida on Water and Eastern Seaboard. Pipelines to Eastern Seaboard

constrained to access NYH; Expanding to allow access and displacement of Northeast product.

NYH/Linden

2010/20152010/2015

215/215215/215Foreign Markets/Surplus

617/300617/300

All Foreign To NES

94/6194/61

5


6

CENT

ENNIA

LENTERPRISE TECONOCOPHILLIPS

EXPLORER

MAGELLAN

FLINT HILLS

CPL_PPL

Products Terminal

RefineryProducts Pipeline

U.S. Refined Product Network & Midwest InteractionMidwest interacts with Gulf Coast supply via four pipelines to supplement

product shortfalls

AlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabama

ArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArizonaArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansasArkansas

CaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaCalifornia ColoradoColoradoColoradoColoradoColoradoColoradoColoradoColoradoColorado

ConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticut

DelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of ColumbiaDistrict of Columbia

FloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFlorida

GeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgia

IdahoIdahoIdahoIdahoIdahoIdahoIdahoIdahoIdaho

IllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIllinoisIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndiana

IowaIowaIowaIowaIowaIowaIowaIowaIowa

KansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentucky

LouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisiana

MaineMaineMaineMaineMaineMaineMaineMaineMaine

MassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusettsMassachusetts

MichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichigan

MinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesotaMinnesota

MississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippi

MissouriMissouriMissouriMissouriMissouriMissouriMissouriMissouriMissouri

MontanaMontanaMontanaMontanaMontanaMontanaMontanaMontanaMontana

NebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraska

NevadaNevadaNevadaNevadaNevadaNevadaNevadaNevadaNevada

New HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew HampshireNew Hampshire

New JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew JerseyNew Jersey

New MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoNew Mexico

New YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew York

North CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth Carolina

North DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth DakotaNorth Dakota

OhioOhioOhioOhioOhioOhioOhioOhioOhio

OklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahomaOklahoma

OregonOregonOregonOregonOregonOregonOregonOregonOregon

PennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaPennsylvania

South CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSouth Carolina

South DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth DakotaSouth Dakota

TennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennessee

TexasTexasTexasTexasTexasTexasTexasTexasTexas

UtahUtahUtahUtahUtahUtahUtahUtahUtah VirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginia

WashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashingtonWashington

West VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest VirginiaWest Virginia

WisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsinWisconsin

WyomingWyomingWyomingWyomingWyomingWyomingWyomingWyomingWyoming


ONTARIO

ABERDEEN

AKRON

ALEXANDRIA

AMARILLO

BAY CITY

BETTENDORF

BISMARCK

CANTON

CATLETTSBURG

CHAMPAIGN

CHEBOYGAN

CHILLICOTHE

CHIPPEWA FALLS

CINCINNATI

CLEVELAND

COLUMBIA

COLUMBUS

COUNCIL BLUFFS

DAYTONDECATUR

DES MOINES

DES PLAINS

DETROIT

DODGE CITY

DUBUQUE

DULUTH

FARGO‐JAMESTOWN

FARGO_MOOREHEAD

FLINT

FORT MADISON

FORT SMITH

GRAND FORKS

GRAND ISLAND

GREEN BAY

HAMMOND

HEYWORTHHUNTINGTON

INDIANAPOLIS

IOWA CITY

JACKSON

JUNCTION CITY

KIRKSVILLE

KNOXVILLE

LAFAYETTE_IN

LAWTON

LEXINGTON

LIMALINCOLN_NE

LOUISVILLE

MADISON

MANKATO

MARIETTA

MARSHALL

MASON CITY

MENARDMIDLAND

MILFORDMILWAUKEE

MINOT

MUNCIE

MUSKEGON

NILES

OKLAHOMA CITY

OWENSBORO

PADUCAH

PLMY

RAPID CITY

ROCHESTER_MN

ROCKFORD

SALINA

SCIOTOVILLE

SCOTTSBLUFF

SIOUX CITY

SIOUX FALLS

ST PAUL

ST. LOUIS WEST

SUPERIOR

TERRE HAUTE

TOLEDO

TOPEKA

TRAVERSE CITY

TULSA

WATERLOO

WAUPUN

WICHITA

YOUNGSTOWN

SPRINGFIELD

ST. JOSEPHKANSAS CITY

ST. LOUIS EASTLAWRENCEVILLE

EAI Terminal Micro‐

market

TERMINAL

PIPELINE

REFINING CENTER

USCCUSCC

USCC Refined Product NetworkEAI, Inc. Terminal Micro‐Markets, Pipelines & Refinery Hubs

7


8Primary Light Product DistributionChicago, Wood River, Robinson Refining Supply

Western Midwest product market orbit distribution density has been declining with surplus product (especially) gasoline in

the Eastern Midwest (Eastern Michigan & Ohio). Western MW supply moves east to the Detroit‐Lima corridor although

these movements have declined dramatically. Product moves as far south as Louisville (Marathon) and as far west as KC‐

Sioux Falls (via the BP proprietary V‐system)

Des Moines

ArdmoreOklahoma City

Duluth

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

LouisvilleMt. Vernon

Ponca City

Wynnewood

Coffeyville

McPherson

Tulsa

Minneapolis

Mandan

Indianapolis

Memphis

Canton

Catlettsburg

Milwaukee

Chicago Whiting

Robinson

Superior

El Dorado

Texas Panhandle

Chicago, Wood River,Robinson

SiouxCity

St. Louis

Detroit

Toledo

Lima

Wood

River

RefineryMarkets

Mt. Vernon‐CatlettsburgOhio River

Mid‐Continent and GC Pipeline Origin

Northern TierOrigin

TEPPCO –

CentennialGC PL Origin

Western MidcontinentDistribution Area


Product Distribution by BargeProduct Distribution by BargeMississippi and Ohio River SystemsMississippi and Ohio River Systems

GasolineGasoline

Iowa

Missouri

Arkansas

Louisiana

Mississippi

Tennessee

Kentucky

Illinois Indiana

Ohio

St. Louis

Cape GirardeauNew Madrid

Wood River

E. St. LouisMt. Vernon

EvansvilleCairo

CinncinnatiMarietta

CovingtonAshland

Louisville

PaducahNashville

Memphis

Greenville

Vicksburg

Helena

Arkansas City

Gulf Coast Sources

Huntington

ParkersburgCharleston

Columbus

WheelingPittsburgh

Pennsylvania

W. Virginia

from Minneapolis

Baton Rouge

Pascagoula


10Product Supply ‐

Distribution Network EAI, Inc. Midwest Region

ChicagoBPExxonMobilCITGO

ChicagoBPExxonMobilCITGO

DetroitMarathonDetroitMarathon

t MC

t Valerot WRB

t Marathon

BPHuskyPBFE

CatlettsburgMarathon

Valerot Gulf Coast

St. Pault Flint Hills t Northern Tier Refining

Superior Calumet (to Close with Murphy

by 3Q‐4Q 2011)

t Texas Panhandle

BP,Buckeye,Magellan

Explorer

Explorer

Explorer

NORCO

West Shore

COP

COP

BP, Wolverine

Magellan

Buckeye

Inland,Sunoco,Buckeye

Marathon, B

uckeye

Buckeye,

Explo

rer,

Phillips

Marath

on

Marathon

Buckeye

Colonial, Plantation

BP

Inland

TEPPCO

,Bu

ckeye

TEPPCO

Indianapolis

Tennessee

Kentucky

Cincinnati

Bay City

Cleveland

St. Louis

Wood RiverWRB

Wisconsin

Northern Tier

Refining Areas

PipelineWaterTruck

Market Areas

ColumbusColumbus

Cardinal

SES/NES

Centennial

Wolverine

Buckeye

t Marathon


11

Midwest Midwest ––Ohio Downstream Business UpdateOhio Downstream Business Update

•

Ohio has very diverse supply access

including Gulf Coast, Western Midwest,

Southeast Michigan, Kentucky, Local

Ohio Refineries and access via the Ohio

River.

•

With demand declines and diverse

supply access, Eastern Midwest‐Ohio

generally “long”

in product supply

making it highly competitive.

•

Refineries undergoing change with

Sunoco selling their Toledo plant to PBF

Energy. BP and Husky own the Toledo

refinery as part of a JV which and plan to

convert to run more heavy crude from

Canada.

•

Ohio product surplus pushing to external

markets including Pittsburgh, Sarnia

Ontario and other Midwest markets.

CatlettsburgCatlettsburg

BCKY

MAP

Milwaukee

Louisville

Columbus

ClevelandChicagoChicagoChicago

Sarnia

Detroit

ToledoLima

Canton

RobinsonRobinsonRobinson

EPL,MPL,PPL

BCKY

TEPPCO BP

Norco,

WEST SHORE

SPL

INLA

ND

, TE

PPC

O

TEPPCO

BKY, INLAND

BKYSUNINLAND

SUN, BKY

MarketsMarkets

Refining Center

Pipeline

Waterborne

MRO

MRO

WLV, BP

BCKY

Evansville

Indianapolis

BCKYCincinnati ORPL

Wood River Wood Wood RiverRiver

Gulf Coast Gulf Gulf CoastCoast

MRO Dayton


12

CLEVELAND

YOUNGSTOWNAKRON

PITTSBURG

H

TOLEDO

LIM

A

COLUMBUS

DAYTO

N

CINCINNATI

INDIANAPOLIS

BP/InlandBuckeye PartnersMarathonSunocoTEPPCO

Products Terminal

Major Refinery

EAIMICRO-MARKET

AKRONAKRONAKRONAKRONAKRONAKRONAKRONAKRONAKRON

CANTONCANTONCANTONCANTONCANTONCANTONCANTONCANTONCANTON

CINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATICINCINNATI

CLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELANDCLEVELAND

COLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUSCOLUMBUS

DAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTONDAYTON

HUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTONHUNTINGTON

NDIANAPOLISNDIANAPOLISNDIANAPOLISNDIANAPOLISNDIANAPOLISINDIANAPOLISINDIANAPOLISINDIANAPOLISNDIANAPOLIS

LIMALIMALIMALIMALIMALIMALIMALIMALIMA

MARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTAMARIETTA

MIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLANDMIDLAND

MORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWNMORGANTOWN

MUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIEMUNCIE

NILESNILESNILESNILESNILESNILESNILESNILESNILES

PITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGHPITTSBURGH

SCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLESCIOTOVILLE

TOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOTOLEDOWARRENWARRENWARRENWARRENWARRENWARRENWARRENWARRENWARREN

YOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWNYOUNGSTOWN

Ohio Refined Product Transportation Network


Crude Slate OutlookU.S. Central Corridor Refineries

Incremental heavy crude demand forecast at 532 MBPD by 2014 and 635 MBPD by 2016. This

assumes that BP‐Husky comes online by 2016. Light‐medium crude liberation on the order of 1000

consisting of 650 due to conversion to heavy and 350 MBPD due to demand decline.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020BP_HSKY_TLDO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 103 103 103 103 103MRO_DTRT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82BP_WHTN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 130 260 260 260 260 260 260 260WRB_WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191BASE HVY/BTM BLEND 477 521 484 423 562 643 675 689 840 680 754 754 754 754 754 754 754 754 754 754 754LIGHT/MEDIUM 2887 2763 2711 2773 2723 2635 2603 2518 2373 2438 2524 2469 2231 2012 1839 1805 1678 1624 1585 1548 1530INCR_HVY 0 234 403 532 532 635 635 635 635 635

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

3750

4000

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

3750

4000

Incr

emen

tal S

uppl

y, M

BPD

Supp

ly, M

BPD

Light/Medium Crude Runs

Base Heavy/Bitumen Blend RunsWRB BP_WHTN

MRO-DTRT

Incremental Hvy/Bitumen Blends

BP-HUSKY TOLEDO

13


14

Wood River Refinery: The Wood River refinery is owned by COP and

Cenovus who are expanding the plants capacity to process heavy crude.

Expanding heavy crude processing capability to 240 MBPD (increase of 130 )

and overall crude processing capability by 50 MBPD to 356 MBPD.

Vacuum

tower and coker units to be completed by Q3‐2011 and startup to occur

Q42011.

BP Whiting Refinery: BP is converting and expanding their Whiting

refinery to increase heavy oil processing capability by 260 BMPD

and overall

crude processing capacity to 405 MBPD. Total light product production

capacity will be increased by approximately 40 MBPD. Completion

has been

delayed to mid‐2013.

BP-Husky Toledo Refinery: BP and Husky are pursuing conversion of

the Toledo refinery to process and additional 103 MBPD of heavy crude.

EAI, Inc. has this occurring by 2016.

Marathon Detroit Refinery: Marathon is increasing the capacity of their

Detroit refinery from 106 to 120 MBPD and increasing their heavy oil

processing capability by 80 MBPD. The plant will be able to produce an

additional 9.5 MBPD of light product. The project is due for completion by

Q4‐2012.

Midwest Refinery ConversionsReshaping the Refining Business and Crude Market

The Wood River, BP Whiting and Marathon Detroit refinery conversion projects will add 60‐110 of effective crude

processing capacity, 470‐532 (depending on Wood River incremental) of heavy crude upgrading capacity and 100 of

additional light product capacity over the 2011 to 2013 timeframe. The BP‐Husky Toledo project could add another 103

MBPD of heavy processing capability.


Interregional Crude MovementWith Supply Region Volumes

ECNDOffshore: 276 MBPDImports: 652 MBPD

ECNDOffshore: 276 MBPDImports: 652 MBPD

WCSBSupply: 2565 MBPDDemand: 437 MBPD

WCSBSupply: 2565 MBPDDemand: 437 MBPD

ECNDDom Runs: 340 MBPDFRN Runs: 652 MBPD

ECNDDom Runs: 340 MBPDFRN Runs: 652 MBPD

WCDemand: BC 65 MBPDDemand: WC 178 MBPD

WCDemand: BC 65 MBPDDemand: WC 178 MBPD

360360

250250

895895

52CDN52

CDN

14801480

280280

115115

276276

150150

15

OVERALL CANADIAN CRUDE BALANCE

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Jan‐08

Mar‐08May‐08

Jul‐0

8

Sep‐0

8

Nov‐0

8

Jan‐09

Mar‐09May‐09

Jul‐0

9

Sep‐0

9

Nov‐0

9

Jan‐10

Mar‐10May‐10

Jul‐1

0

Sep‐1

0

Nov‐1

0

Jan‐11

MBPD

WCDN RUNS ECDN RUNS EX WCSB ECDN PRD FRN IMPORTS


North American Region OverviewOverall Crude Balance and Logistics

The

North

America

composite

outlook

includes

Canada,

Mexico

and

the

United

States. In

terms

of

overall

crude

balance,

total

crude

refined

was

17.7

MMBPD

and

total

crude

production was 10.9 MMBPD –

North America is crude short and imports significant volumes

from other producing areas, 6.7 MMBPD.

On an individual country basis, Canada produced 2.8 MMBPD and refined around 1.76 MBPD.

Canadian

crude

exports

to

the

U.S.

amounted

to

1.9

MMBPD

and

crude

imports

into

the

Canadian East Coast were around 0.8 MMBPD.

Mexico produced around 2.6 MMBPD, inputs into refining were 1.2 MMBPD and 1.4 MMBPD

were exported. Mexico has significant imports of refined products primarily from the U.S.

U.S.

production

amounted

to

5.5

MMBPD

and

refinery

runs

were

14.7

MMBPD. Net

U.S.

crude imports from outside of North America were approximately 6.0 MMBPD. The U.S. is a

major importer of refined products from countries outside of North America.

16


DEMANDHad been for

HEAVY SOURBLENDS

OFFSHOREMED SR

EAI, Inc. North American Crude Supply OutlookUnconventional outpaces Conventional

SYNTHETICCONDENSATE

LT SWEETETHANOL

Light Ends Dominant Streams

DILBITSYNBIT

WCSHigh Gasoil – Resid

Blends

GROWTH OFVERY LIGHT

SWEET GRADES

17

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011All Canadian Supply including Eastern Offshore. Raw streams before midstream blending or adjustment for CDN Refining

Canadian Crude Supply OutlookUnconstrained field grade transfers (before blending and upgrader conversion losses).

HVY_CONV

LT_MED NE_CDN_HVY

NE_CDN_LT

BIT2SYN

DILBIT

RAWBIT

SUNCOR

SYNCRUDE

ALBIAN

HIGH CASE

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

MPB

D

HORIZON LONG LAKE SYNBIT ALBIAN

SYNCRUDE SUNCOR RAWBIT DILBIT

BIT2SYN NE_CDN_LT NE_CDN_HVY LT_MED

HVY_CONV CAPP 6‐2011 GROWTH SUPPLY SPEC3

CAPP 6‐2011


Canadian Export‐U.S. ImportCrude Oil Network

10398

161

142

15

89250

360

1480226

80

100165

TMPL

Edmonton

Hardisty

KEYSTONE XLEDMONTON TO HOUSTONWith BAKKEN MARKETLINK

KEYSTONE XLEDMONTON TO HOUSTONWith BAKKEN MARKETLINK

ENBRIDGESOUTHERN LIGHTS DILUENT RECYCLING

SOUTHERN ACCESSENBRIDGE Added 400 MBPD CAPYMAY 2009

PROJECT TARGET

A SOUTHERN ACCESS – FLANAGAN 400 MBPD

COMPLETED SPRING 2009

C ENBRIDGE GATEWAY (CRUDE) 580 MBPD/150 COND

D1D2

TMX-2 DONE, TMX 3 PLANNINGTMX NORTHERN EXPORT

300 MBPD BY 2015400 MBPD post 2015

E MONARCH – BP GAP Reversal CUSHING TO HOUSTON

250 MBPD BY 201x

F CDN WATERBORNE EXPORT TO US PSW

LIMITED VIA BURNABY

H KEYSTONE TO WOOD RIVERCUSHING LINK - 155 MBPD

DONE JUNE 2010DONE FEB 2011

I KEYSTONE XL – GULF COAST EXTENSION 500-700 MBPD

TARGET 2013CONNECT BAKER MT

Primary Canadian Crude Export PipelinesSecondary and Planned PipelinesRefining Centers

EST AVG 2010 THROUGHPUT MBPD773

PROJECT TARGET

J ENBRIDGE ALBERTA CLIPPER CAPY EXPAND BY 2010

WITH SOUTHERN ACCESS EXPAND

K EPPL – CUSHING TO HOUSTON CONCEPTTARGET 2012

L MUSTANG EXPANSION TO 140 MBPD

2009

M PEGASUS EXPANSION TO 95 MBPD

COMPLETED JUNE 2009

N TRANSCANADA- LOUISIANA ACCESS

CONCEPT

O LINE-9 REVERSAL – TRAILBREAKER 215 MBPD

ON HOLD

P SUNOCO – NORTHEAST 24 INCH400 MBPD

CONCEPT

R SPEARHEAD EXPANSION TO 190 MBPD

COMPLETED MAY2009

S ENBRIDGE ND (PORTAL) EXPANDED TO 161 MBPDPORTAL NORTH – 140 ND TO CDN

JAN 2010 –DONE

TARGET 2013

D1

C

E

F

H

J

A

L

MN

O

RAIL

P

Wichita

Salt Lake

Anacortes

Vancouver

Chicago

Sarnia

Cushing

Patoka

Mustang

Billings

Beaumont

Denver

Warren

Superior

Suncor New Jersey

Houston

Enbridge

ENBR-NDExpress

Butte

KEYSTONEWOOD RIVER – 435 6- 2010CUSHING - 155 CAPY 2- 2011

KEYSTONEWOOD RIVER – 435 6- 2010CUSHING - 155 CAPY 2- 2011

895

I

D2

S

K

250 q1


Western Canadian Crude Distribution OutlookAll Grades; Units, MBPD

Total Western Supply for export to all markets(including Ontario) is forecast to increase from 1996 MBPD in

2010 to roughly 2964 and 3735 MBPD by 2015 and 2020 respectively. If prices remain stable and policy

does not limit bitumen based exports to the U.S. the export level could increase beyond that shown below.

Western Canada Refining

Puget SoundWestridge Waterborne

Rocky Mountains

Minneapolis

Superior

MichiganOhio

Warren

To Ontario

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Expo

rts, MBP

D

Chicago ‐Wood River /MC/GC Base plus Surplus


OXY

Mid Valley

Spearhead Lima

Seaway

SARNIA

Exxon Mobil

Express-Platte

Enbridge – Lakehead

Amdel

SHELL

Ozark

ChiCap

WICHITAFALLS

COP

Basin

WTG

Sunocolines x 3

Mustang

LINE 6B

Lakehead &Southern Access

Toldeo

BP

238

1140

180

193

623

219

275

150

460

325

340

White Cliffs

30

150

335

350

185

350

TEXAS PANHANDLEBORGER

VY- CENTER

CORSICANAJAL

MIDLANDODESSA

LONGVIEW

CHICAGO

W R

PATOKA

590

Seaway

CAPLINE

500

KEYSTONE XLTARGET 2013

CUSHINGDRUMRIGHT

161

115

435 MBPDKEYSTONE

STARTUP 2010

Canada-U.S. Central Corridor-Gulf Crude Network

150

150

Refineries

Pipeline Capacities, MBPD

21


M I S S

Greenbriar Limestone

Pocono Group

D E V O N I A N

New Albany - Ohio ShaleGeneseeTully Lime

MARCELLUS

OnandogaRidgeley SS

S I L

Salina GroupLockport LSCLINTON

Medina

O R D O V I C I A N

Reedsville Shale

UTICA FORMATION

TRENTON/ BLACK RIVER LS

Loysburg FM

Beekmatown GroupMid Valley

Spearhead

Lima

SARNIA

ChiCap

Mustang

LINE 6B

Lakehead &Southern Access

Toldeo

BP

238

219

275

150

460

340

CHICAGO

PLATTE-143KEYSTONE-435 PATOKA

CAPLINE

623

Enbridge – Lakehead %

%

%%

%%%

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Pegasus

Midwest and Eastern CrudePipelines and Refining

PHASE IIISouthern Access

CHEROKEEOZARK -

325

1140

275

Enbridge – LINE-9

240

LINE-7

ROBINSON

WARREN

SUPERIOR

DELAWARE CITY

YORKTOWN

CATLETTSBURG

MT VERNON

WOOD RIVER

EAGLE POINT

CANTON

LINDEN

MEMPHIS


Midwest and Eastern Shale PlaysMarcellus and Utica

Michigan Basin

Illinois Basin

M I S S

Greenbriar Limestone

Pocono Group

D E V O N I A N

New Albany - Ohio ShaleGeneseeTully Lime

MARCELLUS

OnandogaRidgeley SS

S I L

Salina GroupLockport LSCLINTON

Medina

O R D O V I C I A N

Reedsville Shale

UTICA FORMATION

TRENTON/ BLACK RIVER LS

Loysburg FM

Beekmatown Group

Utica ShalePlay Outline

Marcellus ShalePlay Outline

Kankanee Arch

New Albany (oil)Source rock

New Albany (gas)

Play Outline

GASTAR UTICA SHALE

15.5 MMCFD / 1100 BCPD. MARSHALL CO WV

CHESAPEAKE - ENERVEST780,000 ACRES, OHIO

TO INCREASE TO 8 RIGS BY YEAR END 2011.

ENCANA - DEVONDRILLING UTICA –COLLINGWOOD

SHALETESTS IN MICHIGAN

REX ENERGY PLAN TO HAVE 20 RIGS ACTIVE IN UTICA PLAY

OHIO & PA BY YEAR END 2011

AppalachianBasin

UTICAGAS

UTICAGAS-COND

UTICAOIL


Questions / Comments

Thank you !

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