early childhood poverty and adult attainment greg j. duncan university of california, irvine the...
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Early Childhood Poverty Early Childhood Poverty and Adult Attainmentand Adult Attainment
Greg J. Duncan
University of California, IrvineThe National Forum on Early Childhood Policy and
Programs
Poverty rate for children < 6 years old
My talk: My talk:
Does poverty compromise Does poverty compromise children’s life chanceschildren’s life chances??
How would adult outcomes change in response to a policy that boosted
poor children’s family income, but did not directly change any other
characteristic of their parents or family environments?
A Process ModelA Process Model
Early childhood poverty
Purchased inputs
Cognitive stimulation in the home
Type and quality of child care
Quality of schools and neighborhood
Family processes
Maternal mental health
Parenting
Child Achievement, Behavior and
Health
Early brain development
Adult Achievement, Behavior and
Health
The Empirical ModelThe Empirical Model
Early childhood poverty Adult
Achievement, Behavior and
Health
Adult OutcomesAdult Outcomes (up to age 37) (up to age 37)
Completed schooling Labor market earnings and hours Welfare income receipt Health Arrest and incarceration Out of wedlock child bearing
Data and SampleData and Sample
Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), 1968-2006
Children born between 1968 and 1975
Adult outcomes measured between ages 25 and as late as age 37 for the earliest cohort
Income measured prenatal to age 15; demographic controls measured around or before birth
Associations with childhood income
UnadjustedSchooling .34*Earnings .31*Work hours
.15*
Poor Health
-.13*
Arrests -.17*Nonmarital birth
-.38*
Associations with childhood income, without and with adjustments for parent
schooling, etc.Unadjusted Adjusted
Schooling .34* .14*Earnings .31* .23*Work hours
.15* .11*
Poor Health
-.13* -.02
Arrests -.17* -.09Nonmarital birth
-.38* -.26*
Adult attainment and early-childhood income
Early-childhood income
Regression modelRegression model
Adult outcome =
f ( Prenatal to age 5 income +
Age 6-10 income +
Age 11-15 income +
Prenatal demographic controls )
Increase in adult earnings associated with a $3,000 annual increase in income
Norwegian replication: adult earnings
Increase in adult work hours associated with a $3,000 annual increase in income
Statistically significant effects
Earnings Workhours
Prenatal to age 5
<$25,000 p<.05 p<.01
>$25,000 p<.01 p<.05
Age 10-15
<$25,000 ns ns
>$25,000 ns ns
Statistically significant effects
Earnings Workhours
Food stamps
Prenatal to age 5
<$25,000 p<.05 p<.01 p<.05
>$25,000 p<.01 p<.05 ns
Age 10-15
<$25,000 ns ns p<.05
>$25,000 ns ns ns
Statistically significant effects
Earnings Workhours
Food stamps
Poor health
Arrests
OWBirth
Prenatal to age 5
<$25,000 p<.05 p<.01 p<.05 ns ns ns
>$25,000 p<.01 p<.05 ns ns ns ns
Age 10-15
<$25,000 ns ns p<.05 ns ns ns
>$25,000 ns ns ns p<.05 p<.01
p<.01
Policy considerations Earnings coefficients imply:
$3,000 increase in income for 7 years between prenatal and 5th birthday year is associated with: 17% higher adult earnings 152 more work hours per year
Concentrate income transfers (e.g., ETIC, child tax credit) on the p-5 periods?