earned schedulepmimsl.org/images/meeting/051910/may_2010_dinner_earned_schedule.pdf · ©2010...
TRANSCRIPT
©2010 Paladin Project Management Consultants, LLC
Earned Schedule
James C. Blair, PhD, PMP
Project Management Institute May 19, 2010
Earned Schedule
Earned Value Management Background and Context
Earned Value Management Fundamentals (Review)
Agenda
Earned Schedule Management
Earned Value BackgroundThe Earned Value concept can be traced back to the factory floor in the late 1800s
The industrial engineers did then what many executives fail to do today
h l d “ h di i l” h h iThey employed a “three dimensional” approach to measure their performance efficiency for work done in the factory
Earned Value for projects is simply applying the concept to our one-time-only project developments
1
Earned Value BackgroundThe Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) was introduced to industry by the Navy in 1958
PERT was initially a network scheduling and risk management tool
However it heavily relied upon statistical probabilities, which were l i lcostly to implement
In 1962 the advocates of PERT expanded the concept to include costs in what was called PERT/Cost in addition to PERT/Time
While PERT/Time and PERT/Cost did not survive past the mid-1960s, what did survive was the Earned Value concept:
The actual costs to date were compared to the contract estimate for the work actually performed in order to show whether the work was being performed as planned
Earned Value BackgroundIn 1965 the United States Air Force (USAF) took the lead to set new standards that would allow industry project performance oversight
Without specifically prescribing what needed to be done, they merely required that contractors to satisfy broadly defined “criteria” with their current control systemscurrent control systems
In 1966 the Department of Defense (DOD) formally issued the Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria or C/SCSC
The C/SCSC carefully incorporated the earned value concept in the form of thirty-five (35) criteria
The concept of earned value management as a part of the C/SCSC was largely restricted to acquisition of major systems by the government
2
Earned Value BackgroundBy the 1980s, a sort of cultist society of C/SCSC professionals emerged
A self defeating aspect of the C/SCSC for project managers in the private sector was the need to learn and adopt a new terminology associated with the formal doctrine
l h d d d d “ ” ld b d iFor example: the dreaded word “overrun” could not be used in discussions, instead of cost overrun the term of “over target baseline” or OTB had to used
The new language that was required and unnatural did not go well with private industry
In spite of the overall impressive results from earned value within C/SCSC, there was a concern from both private industry and the DOD th t h d d t b dthat changes needed to be made
Earned Value BackgroundIn 1995 the a subcommittee of the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) began the task of re-examining the DOD’s formal earned value criteria
They called the new industrial version the “Earned Value Management System” (EVMS) criteriaSystem (EVMS) criteria
The EVMS contained thirty-two (32) criteria and each of them was rewritten in a more palatable form
In 1996 the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology accepted the new criteria which was later incorporated into the next revision of the DODs instructions
3
Earned Value BackgroundThe NDIA went further and had the 32 EVMS criteria formally issued as an American National Standard Institute/Electronic Industry Association (ANSI/EIA) standard
In 1998 the ANSI/EIA-748 Guide was officially issued to the public
hi k d h i ifi hif i h S ibili fThis marked the significant shift in the EVMS responsibility from a government mandate to ownership by private industry
EVM became a viable best-practice tool as opposed to a government requirement
Earned Value BackgroundThe 32 EVMS criteria is divided into 5 basic groups:
Group 1 – Organization Criteria (1-5)
Group 2 – Planning, Scheduling and Budgeting Criteria (6-15)
Group 3 – Accounting Criteria (16-21)
Group 4 – Analysis Criteria (22-27)
Group 5 – Revisions Criteria (28-32)
4
Earned Value ManagementEarned Value Management integrates scope (work), cost and schedule measures to help assess project performance
Earned Value compares three key values for each work package of the WBS:
l d l ( ) l k d d C f k Planned Value (PV), also known as Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS), is that portion of the approved cost estimate planned to be spent during a given period
Actual Cost (AC), also known as Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP), is the total of costs incurred in accomplishing work during a given period
Earned Value (EV), also known as Budgeted Cost of Work P f d (BCWP) i th l f th k f d kPerformed (BCWP), is the value of the work performed or work completed
These three values are used in combination to provide measures of whether work is being accomplished as planned, similarly to what industrial engineers did as early as the late 1800s using a standard cost system
Standard Cost System
EarnedStandards
The industrial engineers compared their planned standards with the earned standardsand actual costs
ActualCosts
PlannedStandards
and actual costs
5
EarnedStandards
Standard Cost System
Standard CostActual Quantity
CostVariance
QuantityVariance
ActualCosts
PlannedStandards
Actual CostActual Quantity
Standard CostStandard Quantity
Total Material Variance
Standard CostActual Quantity
Earned Value Management
Budgeted CostWork Performed
EV
CostVariance
QuantityVarianceSchedule
Actual CostActual Quantity
Standard CostStandard Quantity
EV
Actual CostWork Performed
Budgeted CostWork Scheduled
AC
Cash Flow Variance
PV
6
Earned Value ManagementIn order to determine the Earned Value (EV) a measure for the work completed is needed
One important measure would be the portion of worked planned (or scheduled) that actually has been completed
f l h i f k l d i f hIf we apply the same portion of work completed as a portion of the Budget (PV or BCWS), we have the “Budget of Work Performed” (EV or BCWP)
For the entire project the Budget at Completion (BAC) is the sum of all the work package budgets (PV) allocated to the project
If we know the overall Percent Complete (%Complete) of the project then the EV for the project is %Complete * BAC
Earned Value ManagementIn a detailed project some work packages will be completed, others only partially complete and still others not started
If a work package is complete then EV = PV
If a work package has not started EV = 0
There are at least four (4) methods of assigning the EV value for a partially complete work package Fixed formula (30/70, 50/50, 75/25, etc.) Percent complete estimates Milestones with weighted values Percent complete with milestone gates
The method used will depend on company policies/guidelines, project size and the structure of the worksize and the structure of the work
So if we know the percentage of the work completed for each work package, we can calculate the Earned Value (EV or BCWP) as the percentage of the Planned Value (PV or BCWS)
7
Earned Value ManagementThe variance (PV – AC) represents a cash flow cost variance but does not take into consideration the work done represented by the AC
The Earned Value Cost Variance (CV = EV – AC) indicates whether the project is under or over the budget from the perspective of the work accomplished or earnedaccomplished or earned
The Cost Performance Index (CPI = EV / AC) is the most commonly used cost-efficiency indicator and is used also for comparing the performance of multiple projects
The Cost Variance and Cost Performance Index indicate whether the project is under or over the budget as follows:
Budget Status
Under CV > 0 CPI > 1
Over CV < 0 CPI < 1
Earned Value ManagementThe Schedule Variance (SV = EV – PV) indicates whether the project is ahead of or behind schedule in terms of the work accomplished
The Schedule Performance Index (SPI = EV / PV) is sometimes used in conjunction with the CPI to forecast completion estimates and also for comparing the performance of multiple projectsfor comparing the performance of multiple projects
The Schedule Variance and Schedule Performance Index indicate whether the project is ahead of or behind schedule as follows:
Schedule Status
Ahead SV > 0 SPI > 1
Behind SV < 0 SPI < 1
8
Earned Value ManagementEarned Value
$100
Earned Value Analysis - Example 1
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Th
ou
san
ds
Do
llar
s
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
AC (ACWP)PV (BCWS)
EV (BCWP)
$0
$10
$20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Months
Earned Value ManagementEarned Value
EXAMPLE 1
MONTH 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10MONTH 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
PV $0 $2,000 $6,000 $15,000 $30,000 $50,000 $65,000 $76,000 $86,000 $91,000 $95,000
AC $0 $2,500 $8,000 $20,000 $38,000 $70,000
EV $0 $1,500 $4,000 $13,000 $23,000 $40,000
SV $0 -$500 -$2,000 -$2,000 -$7,000 -$10,000
SPI 0.00 0.75 0.67 0.87 0.77 0.80
CV $0 -$1,000 -$4,000 -$7,000 -$15,000 -$30,000
Behind Schedule
Over Budget
CPI 0.00 0.60 0.50 0.65 0.61 0.57
9
Earned Value ManagementEarned Value
$100
Earned Value Analysis - Example 2
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Th
ou
san
ds
Do
llar
s
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
EV (BCWP)
AC (ACWP)
PV (BCWS)
$0
$10
$20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Months
EXAMPLE 2
MONTH 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Earned Value ManagementEarned Value
MONTH 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
PV $0 $2,000 $6,000 $15,000 $30,000 $50,000 $65,000 $76,000 $86,000 $91,000 $95,000
AC $0 $1,500 $4,000 $13,000 $23,000 $40,000
EV $0 $2,500 $8,000 $20,000 $38,000 $70,000
SV $0 $500 $2,000 $5,000 $8,000 $20,000
SPI 0.00 1.25 1.33 1.33 1.27 1.40
CV $0 $1,000 $4,000 $7,000 $15,000 $30,000
Ahead of Schedule
Under Budget
CPI 0.00 1.67 2.00 1.54 1.65 1.75
10
Earned Value ManagementEarned Value
$100
Earned Value Analysis - Example 3
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Th
ou
san
ds
Do
llar
s
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
AC (ACWP)PV (BCWS)
EV (BCWP)
$0
$10
$20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Months
EXAMPLE 3
MONTH 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Earned Value ManagementEarned Value
MONTH 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
PV $0 $2,000 $6,000 $15,000 $30,000 $50,000 $65,000 $76,000 $86,000 $91,000 $95,000
AC $0 $3,000 $10,000 $25,000 $45,000 $70,000
EV $0 $2,500 $8,000 $20,000 $38,000 $60,000
SV $0 $500 $2,000 $5,000 $8,000 $10,000
SPI 0.00 1.25 1.33 1.33 1.27 1.20
CV $0 -$500 -$2,000 -$5,000 -$7,000 -$10,000
Ahead of Schedule
Over Budget
CPI 0.00 0.83 0.80 0.80 0.84 0.86
11
Earned Value ManagementEarned Value
$700,000.00
$800,000.00
$900,000.00
$100,000.00
$200,000.00
$300,000.00
$400,000.00
$500,000.00
$600,000.00
$ ,
Do
llars
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
$-
8/4/
00
8/18
/00
9/1/
00
9/15
/00
9/29
/00
10/1
3/00
10/2
7/00
11/1
0/00
11/2
4/00
12/8
/00
12/2
2/00
1/5/
01
1/19
/01
2/2/
01
2/16
/01
3/2/
01
3/16
/01
3/30
/01
4/13
/01
4/27
/01
5/11
/01
Week Ending
Data Source: Chris Hanson, PMPGA Sullivan Consulting
Earned Value ManagementEarned Value - Control Chart
1.601.701.801.902.00
0 100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.001.101.201.301.401.50
Per
form
ance
Ind
ices SPI
CPI
UCL
CL
LCL
Data Source: Chris Hanson, PMPGA Sullivan Consulting
0.000.10
8/4/
00
8/18
/00
9/1/
00
9/15
/00
9/29
/00
10/1
3/00
10/2
7/00
11/1
0/00
11/2
4/00
12/8
/00
12/2
2/00
1/5/
01
1/19
/01
2/2/
01
2/16
/01
3/2/
01
3/16
/01
3/30
/01
4/13
/01
4/27
/01
5/11
/01
Week Ending
12
Earned Value ManagementThe Cost-Schedule Index (CSI) is often used as a single number for the comparison of various projects
CSI = CPI * SPI
The CSI is sometimes referred to as the Critical Ratio (CR)
Basically the CSI is the Cost Performance Index (CPI) weighted by the Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
The smaller the value of the CSI which is less than 1.0 indicates the less likely that the project can be recovered
Earned Value ManagementForecasting includes making estimates or predictions of conditions in the project’s future based on information and knowledge available at the time of the forecast
The Budget at Completion (BAC) is the sum of all the budgets (PV) allocated to the project or the project baselineallocated to the project or the project baseline
Forecasting techniques help to assess:
The cost or amount of work to complete the scheduled work packages, which is called the Estimate at Completion (EAC)
The estimate for completing the remaining work packages, which is called the Estimate to Complete (ETC)
Hence the EAC = AC + ETC
The Variance at Completion (VAC = BAC – EAC) provides the best estimate of the total cost variance at the completion of the project, and can be expressed as a percentage (VAC% = VAC / BAC)
13
Earned Value ManagementAn Estimate at Completion (EAC) is a forecast of the most likely costs based on the project performance and risk quantification
There are several techniques for determining the EAC: EAC = Actual Costs to date plus a new estimated cost for the
l ti f ll i i kcompletion of all remaining work EAC = AC + ETC
EAC = Actual Costs to date plus the remaining budget, which is the Budget at Completion minus the Earned Value EAC = AC + (BAC – EV) EAC = BAC – CV
EAC = Actual Costs to date plus the remaining project budget modified by the cost performance to date (the cumulative CPI)modified by the cost performance to date (the cumulative CPI) EAC = AC + ((BAC – EV) / CPI), which is the same as EAC = BAC / CPI
EAC = Actual Costs to date plus the remaining project budget modified by a efficiency rate that considers both cost and schedule EAC = AC + ((BAC – EV) / (CPI * SPI))
Earned Value ManagementThe To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) indicates the efficiency that must be achieved for the remaining work of the project to meet the specified targeted Budget at Completion (BAC) or the revised Estimate at Completion (EAC)
The TCPI is calculated by dividing the work remaining by the fundsThe TCPI is calculated by dividing the work remaining by the funds remaining, which can be either based on the BAC or the EAC: TCPI = (BAC – EV) / (BAC – AC) TCPI = (BAC – EV) / (EAC – AC)
Also the overall Percent Complete can be calculated as: %Complete = EV / BAC
And the Percent Money Spent can be calculated as:%S t AC / BAC %Spent = AC / BAC
14
Earned Schedule ManagementTo confidently apply Earned Value Management (EVM) data for outcome prediction and project planning, the numbers must reflect the real performance of the project
The schedule indicators (SV and SPI) are useful indicators and predictors of performance and results to a pointpredictors of performance and results
However, since they are expressed in terms of cost rather than time, they can behave in ways that are not normally expected of schedule indicators and predictors
It has been known that the schedule indicators fail to provide the information expected by stakeholders, particularly over the last third of a project
Si th h d l i di t b d t b EV l
to a point
Since the schedule indicators use budget numbers, EV always converges to the PV toward the end of a project
The schedule indicators absolutely breakdown if the project is executing past its planned completion date
Earned Schedule ManagementBecause the problems with the schedule indicators are well known to EVM practitioners, over time the application of EVM has evolved to become a management method focused primarily on cost
The schedule indicators are not relied upon to the same extent as the cost indicatorscost indicators
There is an emerging practice in EVM, which uses time-based measures of schedule variance and performance as an alternative or supplement to the traditional cost-based measures (PMI’s Practice Standard for Earned Value Management page 18)
The traditional cost based method compares the cost of work performed and the cost of work planned (or scheduled) at a particular point in timepoint in time
The time based method compares the time of the work performed and the time of the work scheduled
15
$100
Earned Schedule Analysis - Example 1
Earned Schedule ManagementEarned Schedule
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Th
ou
san
ds
Do
llar
s
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
Earned ValueCost Variance
Earned ValueSchedule Variance
AC (ACWP) PV (BCWS)
EV (BCWP)
$0
$10
$20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Months
$100
Earned Schedule Analysis - Example 1
Earned Schedule ManagementEarned Schedule
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Th
ou
san
ds
Do
llar
s
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
ProjectionOf
EV on PV
AC (ACWP) PV (BCWS)
EV (BCWP)
$0
$10
$20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Months AT(Actual Time)
ES(Earned Schedule)
Earned ScheduleVariance
16
Earned Schedule ManagementIn 2003 Walt Lipke published his seminal article “Schedule Is Different”
The basic concept was not really new as can be seen in this diagram taken from Quentin Fleming & Joel Hoppleman’s book “Earned Value Project Management” on page 109 of the first edition published in 1996
A similar diagram has occurred in all later editions of their book
Earned Schedule ManagementPrior to Lipke’s article tracking of schedule performance has been based more on analysis of the critical path than the earned value calculations
The concept of Earned Schedule (ES) is analogous to Earned Value (EV)
The planned duration (PD) of the project is when the project is planned b l h l d f h j d Ato be complete at the planned cost of the project or Budget At
Completion (BAC)
Earned Schedule uses the time that a particular EV is achieved (ES) as opposed to EV which is the Planned Budget (PV) achieved at that time
Comparing the Actual Time (AT) on the schedule to the Earned Schedule (ES) or time that the EV is achieved produces analogous performance indicators
17
Earned Schedule ManagementThe Schedule Variance (SV(t) = ES – AT) determines whether the project is ahead of or behind schedule in terms of the work accomplished
The Schedule Performance Index (SPI(t) = ES / AT) is used in for comparing the performance of multiple projectscomparing the performance of multiple projects
The Schedule Variance and Schedule Performance Index behave more as expected for schedule indicators and indicate whether the project is ahead of or behind schedule as follows:
Schedule Status
Ahead SV(t) > 0 SPI(t) > 1
Behind SV(t) < 0 SPI(t) < 1
Earned Schedule ManagementTo calculate the ES we must first determine the latest complete time period for which the EV is greater than PV for that period
Find time period t such that EV ≥ PVt and EV < PVt+1
Then the ES is equal the cumulative time to the beginning of the time i d l f i f i i d di h i fperiod t plus a fraction of time period t corresponding to the portion of
EV achieved in the next time period
ES = t + (EV – PVt) / (PVt+1 – PVt)
(EV – PVt) is the portion of the earned value actually earned in the next time period
(PVt+1 – PVt) is the total amount of planned value for the next time period
The ratio of the two is the percentage of the planned value earned in the next time period
The same percentage can be used for the proportion of the time period
18
$100
Earned Schedule Analysis - Example 1
Earned Schedule ManagementEarned Schedule
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Th
ou
san
ds
Do
llar
s
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
AC (ACWP) PV (BCWS)
EV (BCWP)
ProjectionOf
EV on PV
$0
$10
$20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Months AT(Actual Time)
ES(Earned Schedule)
$100
Earned Schedule Analysis - Example 1
Earned Schedule ManagementEarned Schedule
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Th
ou
san
ds
Do
llar
s
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
AC (ACWP) PV (BCWS)
EV (BCWP)
EV – PV4 PV5 – PV4
Percentage
$0
$10
$20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Months
ES = 4 + ((EV – PV4) / (PV5 – PV4))+
PercentageEarned
19
$100
Earned Schedule Analysis - Example 2
Earned Schedule ManagementEarned Schedule
Projection
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Th
ou
san
ds
Do
llar
s
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
ProjectionOf
EV on PV
$0
$10
$20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
MonthsAT(Actual Time)
ES(Earned Schedule)
$100
Earned Schedule Analysis - Example 2
Earned Schedule ManagementEarned Schedule
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Th
ou
san
ds
Do
llar
s
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
EV – PV6
PV7 – PV6
Percentage
$0
$10
$20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Months
PercentageEarned
ES = 6 + ((EV – PV6) / (PV7 – PV6))
20
Earned Schedule ManagementSimilar to the EAC cost forecast there is an earned schedule Estimate at Completion (EAC(t)) or Estimated Duration (ED) forecast based on time
There are also several techniques for determining the ED: ED = Actual Time to date plus a new estimated time for the
l ti f ll i i kcompletion of all remaining work ED = AT + ETC(t)
ED = Actual Time to date plus the remaining schedule, which is the Planned Duration minus the Earned Schedule ED = AT + (PD – ES) ED = PD – SV(t)
ED = Actual Time to date plus the remaining schedule modified by the schedule performance to datethe schedule performance to date ED = AT + ((PD – ES) / SPI(t)), which is the same as ED = PD / SPI(t)
ED = Actual Time to date plus the remaining schedule modified by a efficiency rate that considers both cost and schedule ED = AT + ((PD – ES) / (CPI * SPI(t)))
Earned Schedule ManagementThe To-Complete Schedule Performance Index (TSPI) indicates the schedule efficiency that must be achieved for the remaining work of the project to meet the specified targeted completion date (PD) or the revised Estimate at Completion (EAC(t))
The TSPI is calculated by dividing the planned schedule remaining byThe TSPI is calculated by dividing the planned schedule remaining by the actual schedule remaining, which can be either based on the BAC or the EAC: TSPI = (PD – ES) / (PD – AT) TSPI = (PD – ES) / (ED – AT)
21
Earned Schedule ManagementEarned Schedule
$700,000.00
$800,000.00
$900,000.00
$100,000.00
$200,000.00
$300,000.00
$400,000.00
$500,000.00
$600,000.00
$ ,
Do
llars
PV (BCWS)
AC (ACWP)
EV (BCWP)
$-
8/4/
00
8/18
/00
9/1/
00
9/15
/00
9/29
/00
10/1
3/00
10/2
7/00
11/1
0/00
11/2
4/00
12/8
/00
12/2
2/00
1/5/
01
1/19
/01
2/2/
01
2/16
/01
3/2/
01
3/16
/01
3/30
/01
4/13
/01
4/27
/01
5/11
/01
Week Ending
Data Source: Chris Hanson, PMPGA Sullivan Consulting
Earned Schedule ManagementEarned Schedule
1.601.701.801.902.00
0 100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.001.101.201.301.401.50
Per
form
ance
Ind
ices SPI(t)
CPI
UCL
CL
LCL
Data Source: Chris Hanson, PMPGA Sullivan Consulting
0.000.10
8/4/
00
8/18
/00
9/1/
00
9/15
/00
9/29
/00
10/1
3/00
10/2
7/00
11/1
0/00
11/2
4/00
12/8
/00
12/2
2/00
1/5/
01
1/19
/01
2/2/
01
2/16
/01
3/2/
01
3/16
/01
3/30
/01
4/13
/01
4/27
/01
5/11
/01
Week Ending
22
Earned Schedule ManagementEarned Schedule
1.601.701.801.902.00
0 100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.001.101.201.301.401.50
Per
form
ance
Ind
ices SPI(t)
CPI
UCL
CL
LCL
Data Source: Chris Hanson, PMPGA Sullivan Consulting
0.000.10
8/4/
00
8/18
/00
9/1/
00
9/15
/00
9/29
/00
10/1
3/00
10/2
7/00
11/1
0/00
11/2
4/00
12/8
/00
12/2
2/00
1/5/
01
1/19
/01
2/2/
01
2/16
/01
3/2/
01
3/16
/01
3/30
/01
4/13
/01
4/27
/01
5/11
/01
Week Ending
Earned Schedule ManagementEarned Schedule
1.601.701.801.902.00
0 100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.001.101.201.301.401.50
Per
form
ance
Ind
ices SPI
SPI(t)
UCL
CL
LCL
Data Source: Chris Hanson, PMPGA Sullivan Consulting
0.000.10
8/4/
00
8/18
/00
9/1/
00
9/15
/00
9/29
/00
10/1
3/00
10/2
7/00
11/1
0/00
11/2
4/00
12/8
/00
12/2
2/00
1/5/
01
1/19
/01
2/2/
01
2/16
/01
3/2/
01
3/16
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3/30
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4/13
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4/27
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5/11
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Week Ending
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Earned Schedule ManagementIn conclusion let me share some comments from a presentation by Walt Lipke & Kym Henderson at the 17th Annual International Integrated Program Management Conference (IPMC) in 11/2005
Actual project data using Earned Schedule was presented by the Air Force Acquisition (SAF/AQX) Lockheed Martin Boeing and severalForce Acquisition (SAF/AQX), Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and several Belgium international contracts
What is Known about ES to Date (2005)
Derived from EVM data…only
Provides time-based schedule indicators
Indicators do not fail for late finish projects
Application is scalable up/down, just as EVMpp p j
Schedule prediction is better than any other EVM method presently used
SPI(t) behaves similarly to CPI
EAC(t) = PD / SPI(t) behaves similarly to EAC = BAC / CPI
Earned Schedule ManagementConcluding remarks by Lipke & Henderson:
“Whatever can be done using EVM for Cost Analysis can also be done using Earned Schedule
for Schedule Analysis”
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References (Books)Practice Standard for Earned Value Management ©2005 PMI
Earned Value Project Management, Fleming & Koppelman ©1996 2000 2005 PMI ©1996, 2000, 2005, PMI
A Practical Guide to Earned Value Management, Budd & Budd ©2005, 2010 Management Concepts
Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria, Fleming ©1988 Probus
References (Articles)Lipke, “Schedule is Different”, The Measurable News (3/2003)
Anbari, “The Earned Value Analysis Method: Extensions and Simplifications”, Proceedings of IPMA 17th World Congress on Project Management 6/2003Project Management, 6/2003
Anbari, “Earned Value Project Management Method and Extensions”, Project Management Journal (12/2003)
Henderson, “Further Developments in Earned Schedule”, The Measurable News (Spring 2004)
Lipke & Henderson, “Earned Schedule…an emerging h t t EVM” C T lk 11/2006enhancement to EVM”, Cross Talk, 11/2006
Henderson, “Earned Schedule: A Breakthrough Extension to Earned Value Management”, Proceedings of PMI Global Congress Asia Pacific, 1/2007
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References (Articles)Lipke, “Connecting Earned Value to the Schedule”, Cross Talk (6/2004)
Henderson, “Earned Schedule in Action”, The Measurable News (Spring 2005)News, (Spring 2005)
Vanhoucke & Vandevoorde, “Measuring the Accuracy of Earned Value / Earned Schedule Forecasting Predictors”, The Measurable News, (Winter 2007/2008)
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EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM CRITERIA Organization
1. Define the authorized work elements for the program. A work breakdown structure (WBS), tailored for effective internal management control, is commonly used in this process.
2. Identify the program organizational structure including the major subcontractors responsible for accomplishing the authorized work, and define the organizational elements in which work will be planned and controlled.
3. Provide for the integration of the company's planning, scheduling, budgeting, work authorization and cost accumulation processes with each other, and as appropriate, the program work breakdown structure and the program organizational structure.
4. Identify the company organization or function responsible for controlling overhead (indirect costs).
5. Provide for integration of the program work breakdown structure and the program organizational structure in a manner that permits cost and schedule performance measurement by elements of either or both structures as needed.
Planning and Budgeting
6. Schedule the authorized work in a manner which describes the sequence of work and identifies significant task interdependencies required to meet the requirements of the program.
7. Identify physical products, milestones, technical performance goals, or other indicators that will be used to measure progress.
8. Establish and maintain a time-phased budget baseline, at the control account level, against which program performance can be measured. Budget for far-term efforts may be held in higher level accounts until an appropriate time for allocation at the control account level. Initial budgets established for performance measurement will be based on either internal management goals or the external customer negotiated target cost including estimates for authorized but undefinitized work. On government contracts, if an over target baseline is used for performance measurement reporting purposes, prior notification must be provided to the customer.
9. Establish budgets for authorized work with identification of significant cost elements (labor, material, etc.) as needed for internal management and for control of subcontractors.
10. To the extent it is practical to identify the authorized work in discrete work packages, establish budgets for this work in terms of dollars, hours, or other measurable units. Where the entire control account is not subdivided into work packages, identify the far term effort in larger planning packages for budget and scheduling purposes.
11. Provide that the sum of all work package budgets plus planning package budgets within a control account equals the control account budget.
12. Identify and control level of effort activity by time-phased budgets established for this purpose. Only that effort which is unmeasurable or for which measurement is impractical may be classified as level of effort.
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13. Establish overhead budgets for each significant organizational component of the company for expenses which will become indirect costs. Reflect in the program budgets, at the appropriate level, the amounts in overhead pools that are planned to be allocated to the program as indirect costs.
14. Identify management reserves and undistributed budget.
15. Provide that the program target cost goal is reconciled with the sum of all internal program budgets and management reserves.
Accounting Considerations
16. Record direct costs in a manner consistent with the budgets in a formal system controlled by the general books of account.
17. When a work breakdown structure is used, summarize direct costs from control accounts into the work breakdown structure without allocation of a single control account to two or more work breakdown structure elements.
18. Summarize direct costs from the control accounts into the contractor's organizational elements without allocation of a single control account to two or more organizational elements.
19. Record all indirect costs which will be allocated to the contract.
20. Identify unit costs, equivalent units costs, or lot costs when needed.
21. For EVMS, the material accounting system will provide for: (1) Accurate cost accumulation and assignment of costs to control accounts in a manner consistent with the budgets using recognized, acceptable, costing techniques. (2) Cost performance measurement at the point in time most suitable for the category of material involved, but no earlier than the time of progress payments or actual receipt of material. (3) Full accountability of all material purchased for the program including the residual inventory.
Analysis and Management Reports
22. At least on a monthly basis, generate the following information at the control account and other levels as necessary for management control using actual cost data from, or reconcilable with, the accounting system:
(1) Comparison of the amount of planned budget and the amount of budget earned for work accomplished. This comparison provides the schedule variance. (2) Comparison of the amount of the budget earned the actual (applied where appropriate) direct costs for the same
23. Identify, at least monthly, the significant differences between both planned and actual schedule performance and planned and actual cost performance, and provide the reasons for the variances in the detail needed by program management.
24. Identify budgeted and applied (or actual) indirect costs at the level and frequency needed by management for effective control, along with the reasons for any significant variances.
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25. Summarize the data elements and associated variances through the program organization and/or work breakdown structure to support management needs and any customer reporting specified in the contract.
26. Implement managerial actions taken as the result of earned value information.
27. Develop revised estimates of cost at completion based on performance to date, commitment values for material, and estimates of future conditions. Compare this information with the performance measurement baseline to identify variances at completion important to company management and any applicable customer reporting requirements including statements of funding requirements.
Revisions and Data Maintenance
28. Incorporate authorized changes in a timely manner, recording the effects of such changes in budgets and schedules. In the directed effort prior to negotiation of a change, base such revisions on the amount estimated and budgeted to the program organizations.
29. Reconcile current budgets to prior budgets in terms of changes to the authorized work and internal replanning in the detail needed by management for effective control.
30. Control retroactive changes to records pertaining to work performed that would change previously reported amounts for actual costs, earned value, or budgets. Adjustments should be made only for correction of errors, routine accounting adjustments, effects of customer or management directed changes, or to improve the baseline integrity and accuracy of performance measurement data.
31. Prevent revisions to the program budget except for authorized changes.
32. Document changes to the performance measurement baseline.
Source: Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA)
(http://guidebook.dcma.mil/79/criteria.htm) Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics
(http://www.acq.osd.mil/pm/faqs/criteria.htm)
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Blair Vita
Dr. James C. Blair (Jim) received his Ph.D. in Computer Science from Purdue University where he did research and development in the areas of hierarchical storage systems and interactive debugging. He has over 20 years of executive level experience spanning corporations in computer technology, manufacturing, distribution, finance, publishing and health services.
In addition to his executive experience, Dr. Blair has been an Adjunct Professor at Washington University in St. Louis since 1991. Most recently his emphasis has been on project management within the business world. He is the founder and president of Paladin Project Management Consultants, LLC, which is a consulting firm specializing in coaching, supporting and training in project management. Currently he is the Director of Project Management Graduate Studies in The Sever Institute of Continuing Studies at Washington University. He combines his executive experience with his teaching and consulting experience to provide a holistic and integrative perspective for implementing positive business change and improving business effectiveness by means of improved project management. In 2001 he received his Project Management Professional (PMP®) certification from the Project Management Institute. He has taught various project management classes for over 15 years including several versions of the PMP Preparation class both publicly and under contract (using the 2nd, 3rd and 4th editions of the PMBOK).