earnings monthenergy: oil & gas drilling 100-101 energy: oil & gas equipment & services 102-103...

Earnings Month

Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 4, 2012

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com

blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com


S&P 500 & Sectors OverviewS&P 500 Index 3S&P 500 Sector Indexes 4S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 5S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es 6S&P 500 Sectors Relative Valuation 7S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 8S&P 500 Sectors Operating Profit Margin 9

S&P 500 IndexS&P 500 Index 10-11

Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer Discretionary: Sector 12-13Consumer Discretionary: Advertising 14-15Consumer Discretionary: Apparel, Accessories, & Luxury 16-17Consumer Discretionary: Apparel Retail 18-19Consumer Discretionary: Auto Parts & Equipment 20-21Consumer Discretionary: Automobile Manufacturers 22-23Consumer Discretionary: Automotive Retail 24-25Consumer Discretionary: Broadcasting 26-27Consumer Discretionary: Casinos & Gaming 28-29Consumer Discretionary: Computer & Electronics Retail 30-31Consumer Discretionary: Consumer Electronics 32-33Consumer Discretionary: Department Stores 34-35Consumer Discretionary: Distributors 36-37Consumer Discretionary: Education Services 38-39Consumer Discretionary: General Merchandise Stores 40-41Consumer Discretionary: Home Furnishings 42-43Consumer Discretionary: Home Improvement Retail 44-45Consumer Discretionary: Homebuilding 46-47Consumer Discretionary: Homefurnishing Retail 48-49Consumer Discretionary: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 50-51Consumer Discretionary: Household Appliances 52-53Consumer Discretionary: Housewares & Specialties 54-55Consumer Discretionary: Internet Retail 56-57Consumer Discretionary: Leisure Products 58-59Consumer Discretionary: Motorcycle Manufacturers 60-61Consumer Discretionary: Movies & Entertainment 62-63Consumer Discretionary: Publishing 64-65Consumer Discretionary: Restaurants 66-67Consumer Discretionary: Specialty Stores 68-69Consumer Discretionary: Tires & Rubber 70-71

Consumer StaplesConsumer Staples: Sector 72-73Consumer Staples: Agricultural Products 74-75

continued...



Consumer Staples: Distillers & Vintners 76-77Consumer Staples: Drug Retail 78-79Consumer Staples: Food Distributors 80-81Consumer Staples: Food Retail 82-83Consumer Staples: Household Products 84-85Consumer Staples: Hypermarkets & Super Centers 86-87Consumer Staples: Packaged Foods & Meats 88-89Consumer Staples: Soft Drinks 90-91Consumer Staples: Tobacco 92-93

EnergyEnergy: Sector 94-95Energy: Coal & Consumable Fuels 96-97Energy: Integrated Oil & Gas 98-99Energy: Oil & Gas Drilling 100-101Energy: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 102-103Energy: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 104-105Energy: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 106-107

FinancialsFinancials: Sector 108-109Financials: Diversified Banks 110-111Financials: Insurance Brokers 112-113Financials: Life & Health Insurance 114-115Financials: Multi-Line Insurance 116-117Financials: Other Diversified Financial Services 118-119Financials: Property & Casualty Insurance 120-121Financials: Real Estate Investment Trusts 122-123Financials: Real Estate Services 124-125Financials: Regional Banks 126-127Financials: Specialized Finance 128-129Financials: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance 130-131

Health CareHealth Care: Sector 132-133Health Care: Biotechnology 134-135Health Care: Health Care Distributors 136-137Health Care: Health Care Equipment 138-139Health Care: Health Care Facilities 140-141Health Care: Health Care Services 142-143Health Care: Life Sciences & Tools 144-145Health Care: Managed Health Care 146-147Health Care: Pharmaceuticals 148-149

IndustrialsIndustrials: Sector 150-151Industrials: Aerospace & Defense 152-153Industrials: Air Freight & Logistics 154-155Industrials: Airlines 156-157Industrials: Building Products 158-159Industrials: Construction & Engineering 160-161

continued...



Industrials: Construction & Farm Machinery & Trucks 162-163Industrials: Electrical Components & Equipment 164-165Industrials: Environmental & Facilities Services 166-167Industrials: Human Resource & Employment Services 168-169Industrials: Industrial Conglomerates 170-171Industrials: Industrial Machinery 172-173Industrials: Office Services & Supplies 174-175Industrials: Railroads 176-177Industrials: Research & Consulting Services 178-179Industrials: Trading Companies & Distributors 180-181Industrials: Transportation 182-183

Information TechnologyIT: Sector 184-185IT: Application Software 186-187IT: Communications Equipment 188-189IT: Computer Hardware 190-191IT: Electronic Equipment Manufacturers 192-193IT: Electronic Manufacturing Services 194-195IT: Home Entertainment Software 196-197IT: Internet Software & Services 198-199IT: IT Consulting & Services 200-201IT: Office Electronics 202-203IT: Semiconductor Equipment 204-205IT: Semiconductors 206-207IT: Systems Software 208-209

MaterialsMaterials: Sector 210-211Materials: Aluminum 212-213Materials: Construction Materials 214-215Materials: Diversified Chemicals 216-217Materials: Diversified Metals & Mining 218-219Materials: Fertilizer & Agricultural Chemicals 220-221Materials: Gold 222-223Materials: Industrial Gases 224-225Materials: Metal & Glass Containers 226-227Materials: Paper Packaging 228-229Materials: Paper Products 230-231Materials: Specialty Chemicals 232-233Materials: Steel 234-235

Telecommunication ServicesTelecommunication Services: Sector 236-237Telecommunication Services: Integrated Telecommunication 238-239Telecommunication Services: Wireless Telecommunication 240-241

UtilitiesUtilities: Sector 242-243Utilities: Electric Utilities 244-245Utilities: Gas Utilities 246-247

continued...



Utilities: Multi-Utilities 248-249

Figure 1.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Dec

S&P 500 INDEX

Stock Price Index

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201230

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110DecS&P 500 INDEX

Forward Earnings*

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20128

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Dec

yardeni.com

S&P 500 INDEX

Forward P/E**

* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.** Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Sources for all charts: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Financial, and Haver Analytics.

- S&P 500 Index -

Page 3 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com


Figure 2.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100

200

300

400

Dec

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARYSector Stock Price Index

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100

200

300

400

Dec

INDUSTRIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100

200

300

400

Dec

CONSUMER STAPLES

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Dec

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140

200

400

600

800

Dec

ENERGY

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100

150

200

250

300

350

Dec

MATERIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec

FINANCIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140

100

200

300

400

Dec

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100

200

300

400

500

Dec

HEALTH CARE

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450

100

150

200

250

Dec

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

- S&P 500 Sector Indexes -



Figure 3.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

DecCONSUMER DISCRETIONARYForward Earnings*

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 148

12

16

20

24

28

DecINDUSTRIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 144

8

12

16

20

24

28

DecCONSUMER STAPLES

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

DecINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dec

ENERGY

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145

10

15

20

25

Dec

MATERIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140

10

20

30

40

50

Dec

FINANCIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 144

6

8

10

12

14

16

Dec


95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

DecHEALTH CARE

* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Financial

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 148

10

12

14

16

Dec

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

- S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings -



Figure 4.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 148

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

Dec

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Forward P/E*

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145

10

15

20

25

Dec

INDUSTRIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1410

15

20

25

30

Dec

CONSUMER STAPLES

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dec


95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dec

ENERGY

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dec

MATERIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145

10

15

20

25

Dec

FINANCIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dec


95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Dec

HEALTH CARE

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.Source: Thomson Financial.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145

10

15

20

25

Dec

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

- S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es -



Figure 5.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Dec


Forward P/E*/S&P 500 P/E

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

Dec

INDUSTRIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

DecCONSUMER STAPLES

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Dec


95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Dec

ENERGY

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Dec

MATERIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

Dec

FINANCIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

DecTELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Dec

HEALTH CARE

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.Source: Thomson Financial.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

DecUTILITIES

yardeni.com

- S&P 500 Sectors Relative Valuation -



Figure 6.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Dec


Net Earnings Revisions Index*

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Dec

INDUSTRIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Dec

CONSUMER STAPLES

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Dec


95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Dec

ENERGY

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Dec

MATERIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Dec

FINANCIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Dec


95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-20

-10

0

10

20

Dec

HEALTH CARE

* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Dec

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

- S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index -



Figure 7.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q3

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARYOperating Profit Margin(trailing 4-quarter, %)

SectorS&P 500 Composite

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 125

6

7

8

9

10

Q3

INDUSTRIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 125

6

7

8

9

10

Q3

CONSUMER STAPLES

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18Q3INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122

4

6

8

10

12

Q3

ENERGY

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

2

4

6

8

10Q3MATERIALS

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 125

6

7

8

9

10FINANCIALS

Profit margin for the Financialssector is not available from S&P.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 124

6

8

10

12

14

Q2


95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 124

6

8

10

12

14

16

Q3

HEALTH CARE

* Operating Margin in percent and based on trailing 4-quarter EPS and sales.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Financial, and Haver Analytics.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 124

6

8

10UTILITIES

Profit margin for the Utilitiessector is not available from S&P. yardeni.com

- S&P 500 Sectors Operating Profit Margin -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1/3

yardeni.com

* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.

S&P 500 INDEX*

200-day moving average

Figure 8.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201330

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com

* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)

Consensus Forecasts__________________

Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 9.

- S&P 500 Index -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20138

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Dec

S&P 500 INDEX VALUATION

yardeni.com

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Figure 10.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 11.

- S&P 500 Index -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201395

145

195

245

295

345

95

145

195

245

295

345

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INDEX*


Figure 12.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135

10

15

20

25

30

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 13.

- Consumer Discretionary: Sector -



5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 14.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 15.

- Consumer Discretionary: Sector -



1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201370

120

170

220

270

320

370

420

470

70

120

170

220

270

320

370

420

470

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 ADVERTISING*(IPG OMC)


Figure 16.

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135

10

15

20

5

10

15

20

Dec10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 ADVERTISING OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 17.

- Consumer Discretionary: Advertising -



5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Dec

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 ADVERTISING VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 18.

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 ADVERTISING NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 19.

- Consumer Discretionary: Advertising -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375

125

175

225

275

325

375

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 APPAREL, ACCESSORIES, & LUXURY GOODS*(COH RL VFC)


Figure 20.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20137

12

17

22

27

7

12

17

22

27

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 APPAREL, ACCESSORIES, & LUXURY GOODS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 21.

- Consumer Discretionary: Apparel, Accessories, & Luxury -



6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 APPAREL, ACCESSORIES, & LUXURY GOODS VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 22.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 APPAREL, ACCESSORIES, & LUXURY GOODS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 23.

- Consumer Discretionary: Apparel, Accessories, & Luxury -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375

175

275

375

475

575

675

775

75

175

275

375

475

575

675

775

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 APPAREL RETAIL*(ANF GPS LTDROST TJXURBN)


Figure 24.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20137

17

27

37

47

57

67

7

17

27

37

47

57

67

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 APPAREL RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 25.

- Consumer Discretionary: Apparel Retail -



5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 APPAREL RETAIL VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 26.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 APPAREL RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 27.

- Consumer Discretionary: Apparel Retail -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201325

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 AUTO PARTS & EQUIPMENT(JCI)


Figure 28.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

4

8

12

16

20

0

4

8

12

16

20

Dec10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 AUTO PARTS & EQUIPMENT OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 29.

- Consumer Discretionary: Auto Parts & Equipment -



5

10

15

20

25

30

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 AUTO PARTS & EQUIPMENT VALUATIONP/E capped at 25due to extreme values.

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 30.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 AUTO PARTS & EQUIPMENT NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 31.

- Consumer Discretionary: Auto Parts & Equipment -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20138

88

168

248

328

408

8

88

168

248

328

408

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS*(F)


Figure 32.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50

-25

0

25

50

-50

-25

0

25

50

Dec10 11

12 13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 33.

- Consumer Discretionary: Automobile Manufacturers -



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

Decyardeni.com



S&P 500 AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

P/E capped at 30due to extreme values.

P/E not available from December 2006 to July 2007, and fromMarch 2008 to October 2009 because earnings are negative.

Figure 34.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 35.

- Consumer Discretionary: Automobile Manufacturers -



2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375

125

175

225

275

325

375

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 AUTOMOTIVE RETAIL INDEX*(AN AZO KMX ORLY)


Figure 36.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20138

13

18

23

8

13

18

23

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 AUTOMOTIVE RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 37.

- Consumer Discretionary: Automotive Retail -



6

8

10

12

14

16

18

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Dec

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 AUTOMOTIVE RETAIL VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 38.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 AUTOMOTIVE RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 39.

- Consumer Discretionary: Automotive Retail -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340

140

240

340

440

540

40

140

240

340

440

540

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 BROADCASTING(CBS DISCA)


Figure 40.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-10

0

10

20

30

40

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 BROADCASTING OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 41.

- Consumer Discretionary: Broadcasting -



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 BROADCASTING VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

P/E capped at 50.

P/E not available from 1996 to 2002 because forward earnings were negative.

Figure 42.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 BROADCASTING NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 43.

- Consumer Discretionary: Broadcasting -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013100

500

900

1300

1700

2100

100

500

900

1300

1700

2100

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 CASINOS & GAMING*(IGT WYNN)


Figure 44.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135

25

45

65

85

5

25

45

65

85

Dec10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 CASINOS & GAMING OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 45.

- Consumer Discretionary: Casinos & Gaming -



5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 CASINOS & GAMING VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 46.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 CASINOS & GAMING NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 47.

- Consumer Discretionary: Casinos & Gaming -



1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375

125

175

225

275

325

375

425

475

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

425

475

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL*(BBY GME)


Figure 48.

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135

10

15

20

25

30

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dec10

11

1213

yardeni.com


S&P 500 COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 49.

- Consumer Discretionary: Computer & Electronics Retail -



5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Dec

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

Decyardeni.com



S&P 500 COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 50.

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 51.

- Consumer Discretionary: Computer & Electronics Retail -



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135

35

65

95

125

155

185

5

35

65

95

125

155

185

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 CONSUMER ELECTRONICS INDEX*(HAR)


Figure 52.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-2

0

2

4

6

-2

0

2

4

6

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 CONSUMER ELECTRONICS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 53.

- Consumer Discretionary: Consumer Electronics -



4

8

12

16

20

24

28

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Dec

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 CONSUMER ELECTRONICS VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

P/E not available fromMay 2009 to August 2009because earnings were negative.

P/E capped at 25.

Figure 54.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 CONSUMER ELECTRONICS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 55.

- Consumer Discretionary: Consumer Electronics -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201350

100

150

200

250

300

350

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES*(JCP JWN KSS M SHLD)


Figure 56.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20134

8

12

16

20

24

4

8

12

16

20

24

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 57.

- Consumer Discretionary: Department Stores -



8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 58.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 59.

- Consumer Discretionary: Department Stores -



2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375

100

125

150

175

200

225

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 DISTRIBUTORS*(GPC)


Figure 60.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20137

9

11

13

15

7

9

11

13

15

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 DISTRIBUTORS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 61.

- Consumer Discretionary: Distributors -



8

10

12

14

16

18

20

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Dec

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 DISTRIBUTORS VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 62.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 DISTRIBUTORS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 63.

- Consumer Discretionary: Distributors -



2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340

60

80

100

120

140

40

60

80

100

120

140

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 EDUCATION SERVICES INDEX*(APOL DV)


Figure 64.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20133

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 EDUCATION SERVICES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 65.

- Consumer Discretionary: Education Services -



5

10

15

20

25

30

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dec

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 EDUCATION SERVICES VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 66.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 EDUCATION SERVICES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 67.

- Consumer Discretionary: Education Services -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375

175

275

375

475

575

675

775

875

75

175

275

375

475

575

675

775

875

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES*(BIG FDO TGT)


Figure 68.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

Dec10

11

12 13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 69.

- Consumer Discretionary: General Merchandise Stores -



5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 70.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 71.

- Consumer Discretionary: General Merchandise Stores -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340

70

100

130

160

190

40

70

100

130

160

190

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS*(LEG)


Figure 72.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Dec

10

11

12 13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 73.

- Consumer Discretionary: Home Furnishings -



5

10

15

20

25

5

10

15

20

25

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 74.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 75.

- Consumer Discretionary: Home Furnishings -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375

150

225

300

375

450

525

600

675

75

150

225

300

375

450

525

600

675

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL*(HD LOW SHW)


Figure 76.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20133

11

19

27

35

43

3

11

19

27

35

43

Dec

1011

1213

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 77.

- Consumer Discretionary: Home Improvement Retail -



10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 78.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 79.

- Consumer Discretionary: Home Improvement Retail -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375

275

475

675

875

1075

1275

1475

75

275

475

675

875

1075

1275

1475

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING*(DHI LEN PHM)


Figure 80.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50

0

50

100

150

200

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Dec

1011

12 13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 81.

- Consumer Discretionary: Homebuilding -



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

P/E not available fromJuly 2007 to January 2010because earnings were negative.

P/E capped at 30.

Figure 82.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 83.

- Consumer Discretionary: Homebuilding -



2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOMEFURNISHING RETAIL INDEX*(BBBY)


Figure 84.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20134

6

8

10

12

14

4

6

8

10

12

14

Dec

10 11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOMEFURNISHING RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 85.

- Consumer Discretionary: Homefurnishing Retail -



8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Dec

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 HOMEFURNISHING RETAIL VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 86.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOMEFURNISHINGS RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 87.

- Consumer Discretionary: Homefurnishing Retail -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201360

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOTELS, RESORTS & CRUISE LINES*(CCL HOT MAR WYN)


Figure 88.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135

7

9

11

13

15

17

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOTELS, RESORTS & CRUISE LINES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 89.

- Consumer Discretionary: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines -



5

10

15

20

25

30

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 HOTELS, RESORTS & CRUISE LINES VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 90.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOTELS, RESORTS & CRUISE LINES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 91.

- Consumer Discretionary: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201370

100

130

160

190

220

250

280

310

70

100

130

160

190

220

250

280

310

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES*(SNA SWK WHR)


Figure 92.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20138

13

18

23

28

33

38

43

8

13

18

23

28

33

38

43

Dec10

11

1213

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 93.

- Consumer Discretionary: Household Appliances -



6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 94.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 95.

- Consumer Discretionary: Household Appliances -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201325

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES*(FO NWL)


Figure 96.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20134

6

8

10

12

14

16

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Dec

10

11

12 13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 97.

- Consumer Discretionary: Housewares & Specialties -



6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 98.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 99.

- Consumer Discretionary: Housewares & Specialties -



2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375

275

475

675

875

1075

1275

75

275

475

675

875

1075

1275

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 INTERNET RETAIL*(AMZN EXPE PCLN)


Figure 100.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131.5

11.5

21.5

31.5

41.5

1.5

11.5

21.5

31.5

41.5

Dec

1011

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 INTERNET RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 101.

- Consumer Discretionary: Internet Retail -



10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Dec

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 INTERNET RETAIL VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 102.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 INTERNET RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 103.

- Consumer Discretionary: Internet Retail -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201360

90

120

150

180

210

240

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 LEISURE PRODUCTS*(HAS MAT)


Figure 104.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135

10

15

20

5

10

15

20

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 LEISURE PRODUCTS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 105.

- Consumer Discretionary: Leisure Products -



8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 LEISURE PRODUCTS VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 106.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 LEISURE PRODUCTS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 107.

- Consumer Discretionary: Leisure Products -



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201320

60

100

140

180

220

260

20

60

100

140

180

220

260

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 MOTORCYCLE MANUFACTURERS*(HOG)


Figure 108.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132

5

8

11

14

17

20

2

5

8

11

14

17

20

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 MOTORCYCLE MANUFACTURERS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 109.

- Consumer Discretionary: Motorcycle Manufacturers -



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Dec

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

Dec

yardeni.com



S&P 500 MOTORCYCLE MANUFACTURERS VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 110.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 MOTORCYCLE MANUFACTURERS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 111.

- Consumer Discretionary: Motorcycle Manufacturers -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201350

125

200

275

350

425

50

125

200

275

350

425

1/3

yardeni.com


S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT*(DIS NWS.A TWX VIA.B)


Figure 112.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132.5

6.5

10.5

14.5

18.5

2.5

6.5

10.5

14.5

18.5

Dec

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com


S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)


Annual Estimates

12-Month Forward*

Figure 113.

- Consumer Discretionary: Movies & Entertainment -



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Dec

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Decyardeni.com



S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT VALUATION

Forward P/E*

Relative P/E**

Figure 114.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Dec

yardeni.com


S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

Figure 115.

- Consumer Discretionary: Movies & Entertainment -



1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201350

125

200

275

350

425

50

125

200

275

350

425

1/3

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