James D. Goltz Ph.D.Earthquake and Tsunami Program ManagerCalifornia Emergency Management AgencyCalifornia Industrial Hygiene Council ConferenceSan Diego, December 7, 2010

Many sources of information on natural hazards

Mine is an emergency management and social science perspective

The Cal EMA Earthquake and Tsunami Program is part of the Preparedness Division of Cal EMA

There are 9 of us working statewide with a budget of approximately $4 million per year

Funding sources are NOAA, FEMA and State general fund

YearYear LocationLocation MagnitudeMagnitude

19521952 Kern CountyKern County 7.77.7

19711971 San FernandoSan Fernando 6.56.5

19791979 Imperial ValleyImperial Valley 6.56.5

19831983 CoalingaCoalinga 6.56.5

19871987 Whittier NarrowsWhittier Narrows 5.95.9

19891989 Loma PrietaLoma Prieta 6.96.9

19921992 Cape MendocinoCape Mendocino 7.2, 6.5, 6.67.2, 6.5, 6.6

19921992 LandersLanders 7.37.3

19941994 NorthridgeNorthridge 6.76.7

19991999 Mojave DesertMojave Desert 7.17.1

20032003 San SimeonSan Simeon 6.56.5

20102010 Baja (Mexico)Baja (Mexico) 7.27.2

M5.5 and Greater

Probability of a M6.7 earthquake in California in the next 30 years is 99%

Probability of a M7.5 earthquake in California is 46%

Highest probability of an earthquake is in southern California

Source: Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities

Addresses earthquake, tsunami and volcanic hazards

Main program areas: Local government planning & exercises Hazard mitigation Public education Partial funding of seismic network Knowledge & technology transfer

Target audiences Local government (cities & counties) Public (residents and visitors)

Scientific organizations US Geological Survey Public and Private Universities (Caltech, UC

Berkeley, USC) California Geological Survey National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA) Emergency Management

Federal Emergency Management Agency Other state agencies with emergency

management functions Local emergency services agencies

Support for the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) $2 million per year

Provides information on all California earthquakes

Includes ~1200 stations Magnitude, location,

time of occurrence in real-time

Also source of ShakeMap Receives info feed from

global networks

CISN DisplayCISN DisplayShakeMapShakeMapENSENSHAZUSHAZUSPAGERPAGER

In 2008,2009 and 2010 Cal EMA was a principal organizer of the Great California ShakeOut

• Drop, Cover and Hold On Drill (All Years)• Statewide Earthquake Exercise (08)• International Earthquake Conference (08)• Localized events to raise awareness (All Years)

Buildings rarely collapse in California Most people are injured in earthquakes by

things falling on them Get under something to be safe!

DO NOT get in a doorway! It does not protect you from falling items,

and in strong shaking you can not stand

DO NOT believe the “triangle of life”! You are safer under, not next to a table www.dropcoverholdon.org explains why

Plans for response to earthquakes M>7.5

the SF Bay Area Southern California Cascadia Subduction

Zone Midwest

$213 Billion in losses 1,800 estimated deaths (low because of mitigation already done,

but more needs to be accomplished) 50,000 injuries severe enough for emergency room

Approximately 255,000 households will be displaced,542,000 persons will need shelter and up to 2.5 million will require some level of assistance

1,600 fire ignitions (model does not include Santa Ana conditions) Hundreds of buildings will collapse and thousands will never be

usable again. Greatest loss of buildings and loss of life occur in older brick and non-ductile concrete moment-frame buildings (unreinforced masonry URM)

Lifelines (power, gas, water, phone, transportation) severed with 15 – 30 foot offsets across the fault

Local emergency response capability overwhelmed, mutual aid from outside the region

2/3 of hospital beds lost to structural and non-structural damage

Duty Officer for earthquake and tsunami 24/7 responsibility for response

CEPEC review of anomalous seismic activity

Earthquake early warning:An attempt to alert peoplethat ground motion froma distant earthquake isapproaching

Potential Advantages:

• Personal safety (drop, cover, hold on)• Rapid and automated mitigation

Reduce loss of life and property damage

M6.5 Off shore Northern CA, January 10 M7.0 Port au Prince Area, Haiti January

11 M8.8 Maule, Chile, February 27 M7.2 Baja California, April 4 M6.9 Qinghai, China, April 13 M7.0 South Island (Christchurch), New

Zealand, September 3 M7.7 Sumatra, Indonesia, October 25

M6.5 at 4:28 PM on Sunday, January 10

Location: 30 miles WSW of Eureka

No deaths or serious injuries

$30 million in damage

History of earthquakes in this region: Triple Junction

Reinforced masonry buildings did very well

Those that remained unreinforced did badly

Few people in public places did “drop, cover and hold on”

More running than we would like to see

M 7.0 at 4:53 PM on Tuesday January 12

15 miles WSW of Port au Prince

222,570 Killed, 300,000 injured and 1.3 million displaced

Worst natural disaster since Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004

From a seismological and engineering perspective, not much was learned

Reaffirmed that poor nations continue to suffer huge losses of life, catastrophic damage and lengthy recovery periods.

M8.8 at 3:34 AM on Saturday February 27

One of the 5 largest earthquakes ever recorded

577 killed, 12,000 injured and 800,000 displaced

Earthquake caused trans-Pacific tsunami

Modern building codes w/strict enforcement saves lives

Connection b/w earthquake and tsunami still not well understood

Beach visitors are vulnerable

“Easter Day” M7.2 on Sunday April 4

30 miles SSE of Mexicali and 35 miles SSE of Calexico, CA

2 fatalities in Mexico and damage in Baja and Imperial County

About $90 million in damage on US side

Migration of aftershocks north caused concern

Extensive surface rupture shed light on the vulnerability of life lines

Gave impetus to planning for southern California earthquake

M6.9 located 1190 miles WSW of Beijing at 7:49 AM local time

In aftermath of other earthquakes, nearly nothing in news

2,698 killed, 270 missing, over 12,000 injured

Largest earthquake in history in this region

Expect the next earthquake to be unexpected (location too!)

M7.0 located 30 m W of Christchurch at 4:36 AM on Saturday September 4

No fatalities (2 serious injuries)

Contrast with Haiti earthquake

Good buildings and preparedness paid off!

Stark contrasts b/w developed and third world in survivability in a major earthquake

Older building do poorly wherever they are located

M7.7 located 175 miles S of Padang at 9:42 PM

On Monday Oct 25 Earthquake caused

a 10 foot tsunami 113 killed and 500

Missing One of the most

seismically active regions in the world

California faces a similar risk that a near source tsunami will be generated and arrive within 10-15 minutes of an under water earthquake or landslide.

If you are at the beach and experience an earthquake lasting 20 seconds or more, take self-protective action during the shaking, then move inland and to higher ground!

World seismicity has not increased (rate of earthquakes is stable from year to year)

It will increase in those areas which have experienced large events (aftershocks & triggered earthquakes)

Must do a better job in public safety education for both earthquakes and tsunamis

Good building codes and enforcement save lives

Myth#1: Most people will panic during the shaking disregarding appropriate response training (e.g. everyone runs outside)

Myth#2: People will exhibit “shock” becoming passive and require major assistance from response agencies

Myth#3: A massive show of force and control will be needed to prevent looting and other crowd behavior

Response training won’t help because when the ground starts to shake, instincts take over and everyone will just panic!

“Fright and panic are such regular effects of strong shaking that they form an established part of all intensity scales. Persons and populations differ according to their previous experience, but only an abnormally cold-blooded person can remain calm when the structures over his head are being damaged and the ground under his feet is shaking so as to destroy the basic feelings of security. The most universal impulse is to run, even when already outdoors”

I Not felt

II Felt indoors by few – especially on upper floors, or by sensitive or nervous persons.

III Felt indoors by several – motion is usually a rapid vibration. Sometimes not recognized to be an earthquake at first.

IV Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few – Awakened few, especially light sleepers. Frightened no one, unless apprehensive from previous experience.

V Felt indoors by practically all, outdoors by many –Awakened many, or most.Frightened few--slight excitement, a few ran outdoors.

VI Felt by all – indoors and outdoors. Frightened many, excitement general.

VII Frightened all – general alarm, all ran outdoors. Some, or many, found it difficult to stand. Noticed by persons driving motor cars.

VIII Fright general – alarm approaches panic. Disturbed persons driving motor cars. IX Panic general X-XII ?

“When the earthquake struck what was the very first thing you did?”*

Took Cover Remained Ranin Safe Place in Place Outside

Whittier Narrows 34.8% 34.3%8.3%

Loma Prieta 26.6% 33.3%7.9%

Northridge 33.6% 40.1% 8.4%

* From surveys of three earthquakes conducted by the Institute for Social Science Research at UCLA

Trust the ability of people to benefit from earthquake and tsunami response training.

A big earthquake is so unexpected and so traumatic that people are incapacitated and become totally dependent on response agencies and NGOs for assistance

Assist family members, then neighbors & others

Conduct search and rescue of others nearby

Put out fires, provide first aid

Seek information from surviving media

Make decisions about evacuation

Share food and water

A strong show of force will be necessary because many people will take advantage of the lack of control to loot stores and homes.

Crime actually goes down after a natural disaster

Some looting will occur but not on a massive scale

Natural Disaster vs. Civil Unrest

Some circumstances defined as looting are not (taking vs. stealing)

Homes are rarely the target of looters

Would be naive to say that the post-earthquake social situation is a “love fest”

But people are more resourceful and resilient than these myths imply

As survivors of a large earthquake we are an asset to official response, not a hindrance

Programs like CERT, ARC first aid and CPR training and response readiness training will help us cope with the post-earthquake situation

We have had a tough year for large damaging earthquakes (Haiti one of the worst in history)

Should share our best practices with developing nations as part of our humanitarian aid efforts

Work to expand capacity to effectively respond and mitigate for catastrophic events in CA

Continue programs like the ShakeOut to prepare Californians for inevitable large earthquakes and tsunamis

Partner with other agencies and NGOs to carry out cost-effective planning and hazard mitigation

Despite the myths, the public will, on the whole respond adaptively to a natural disaster

Thank You