EARTH’s ATMOSPHERELOWER ATMOSPHERE:

Nitrogen (N2) 78%

Oxygen (O2) 21%

Water vapor (H2O) ~1%

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 0.035%

Other gases near zero

Airplanes, Mt. Everest

Ozone layerThousandth Atmosphere

Millionth Atmosphere

Space Shuttle, satellites

UPPER ATMOSPHERE:

Aurora

Meteors

Sea Level 1 atm. 70°F

Mile-High 83% atm. 52°F

14,000 ft 1/2 atm. 12°F

GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE CHANGES CAUSED BY HUMAN GAS PRODUCTION

OZONE DEPLETION GLOBAL WARMING

Cause Halogen compounds released into air, diffuse to stratosphere, catalytically destroy ozone layer

CO2 (and methane) released into air, greenhouse effect heats air, changes climate

Sources Hair sprays, refrigerants,… Fossil fuel burning, deforestation

Confidence Extremely high Extremely high

Industry reaction

Dupont made long-sustained vile smear campaigns

Exxon and other gas companies making long-sustained attacks on existence of global warming

Latency time ~Half a century Decades

If allowed to go to extreme

Ozone layer goes to half of depth worldwide, Solar far-UV light gets to surface, death of food-chain top, bottom, and middle

World heats up by perhaps 10°F, icecaps all melt, majority of world’s population looses homes, frequent high-intensity hurricanes, massive droughts affect half of world, deaths in the billions

Ease of solution

Easy; ban CFCs, manufacture substitutes instead

Hard; too many people in world, all wanting to burn fossil fuels to achieve high living standard

OZONE LAYER

OZONE LAYER

Ozone absorbing Solar UV light is what heats upthe stratosphere

Without the ozone layer, all solar far-UV light would get to ground causing fast cancer and germicide killing of many things from top-to-bottom of food chain.

HOW TO GET RID OF THE OZONE1973: Planetary Astronomer working on the atmosphere of Venus realizes that chlorine will ‘kill’ ozone, and would do so on Earth

1973: Lovelock measures CFCs, finds that all mankind’s production still in the atmosphere

1974: Rowland & Molina put together that manmade CFCs will go to stratosphere, release chlorine, and kill ozone

1974-1978: Rowland & Molina work confirmed, tested, extended; result became highly confident

1995: Rowland & Molina get Nobel Prize

OZONE ‘DEBATE’If the ozone layer gets thinner by half over most of the Earth, then there will be massive extinctions and die-offs

DuPONT put massive amounts of money into a smear campaignagainst Rowland & Molina

OZONE HOLE

MONTREAL PROTOCOLSPut severe limits on CFC production

Open for signature in 1987

In force in 1989

189 Nations ratified protocols

Updates in 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1999UN Sec.Gen Kofi Annan: "Perhaps the single most

successful international agreement to date..."

Summary of Montreal Protocol Control Measures Ozone Depleting Substances Developed Countries Developing CountriesChlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) Phased out end of 1995 Total phase out by 2010Halons Phased out end of 1993 Total phase out by 2010Carbon tetrachloride Phased out end of 1995 Total phase out by 2010Methyl chloroform Phased out end of 1995 Total phase out by 2015HCFCs Freeze from beginning of 1996 35% reduction by 2004 65% reduction by 2010 Freeze in 2016 90% reduction by 2015 at 2015 base level Total phase out by 2020 Total phase out by 2040HBFCs Phased out end of 1995 Phased out end of 1995Methyl bromide Freeze in 1995 at 1991 level Freeze in 2002 at average 25% reduction by 1999 1995-1998 base level 50% reduction by 2001 20% reduction by 2005 e 70% reduction by 2000 Total phase out by 2015 Total phase out by 2005

CURRENT SITUATIONDuPONT has been earning massive profits from making CFC replacements

Ozone killers are now falling;Our atmosphere will have recovered in ~50 years.

GLOBAL WARMING

• Global Warming is an observed fact, and everyone agrees that it is so

• Completely unprecedented throughout all known history of Earth

• Earth has warmed by 1.4°F in last century

• It has been accelerating in the last 35 years

2009 *

AURORA

AURORAL ARCS ON SATURN

AURORA VIEWED FROM SPACE SHUTTLE

[Note Orion in background]

AURORA OCCUR IN AN

ARC AROUND THE

MAGNETIC POLE

SOLAR FLARE SPEWS OUT CHARGED PARTICLES, THESE

COME TO EARTH, SPIRAL DOWN MAGNETIC FIELD LINES,

MAKE ATMOSPHERE ‘FLOURESCE’ CAUSING AURORA

SOLAR FLARES

SCREW UP RADIO

COMMUNICATIONS

FLARES ‘FRY’ SATELLITE ELECTRONICS

FLARES INDUCE HIGH VOLTAGES IN POWER GRIDS, FRY CIRCUITS, CAUSE BLACKOUTS

LITTLE ICE AGE

2009 *

GOOD CONNECTION BETWEEN LONG-TERM SOLAR ACTIVITY AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURES

IS GLOBAL WARMING

CAUSED BY INCREASING

SOLAR ACTIVITY??

• Reasonably good correlation between solar activity and world temperature from 1800’s to ~1980

• A reasonable conclusion is that the warming from 1800’s to ~1980 is dominated by rising solar activity

BUT GLOBAL WARMING SINCE ~1980 CANNOT BE DUE TO INCREASED

SOLAR ACTIVITY

• Global Warming is rising fast since 1980

• Solar activity has been holding steady or falling since 1980

==> The fast-rising and unprecedented Global Warming is not due to solar activity

GREENHOUSE EFFECTGreenhouse gases: CO2, methane, nitrous oxides Transparent in optical Opaque in infrared

Greenhouse effect: Atmosphere heated in optical

max=0.0029/5700°=0.5microns

Atmosphere cools in infraredmax=0.0029/280°=10microns

Gases stop surface from cooling

INCREASING CO2 HOTTER EARTH

CO2 concentration

TemperatureGlobal temperaturefollows CO2

concentration

CO2 concentration increased by 35%in last century

Detailed calculations prove that this increase in CO2 is responsible for the observed global warming since 1970’s100,000 year

SCIENTISTS HAVE A UNIVERSAL CONSENSUS THAT GLOBAL

WARMING IS REAL, LARGE, AND CAUSED BY HUMANS

AMERICAN SCIENCE

ORGANIZATIONS:• American Meteorological Society• American Astronomical Society• American Geophysical Union• American Physics Society• American Association for the Advancement of Science• Geological Society of America• American Chemical Society• American Institute of Physics• American Medical Association• American Statistical Association• National Academy of Science• National Research Council

INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE

ORGANIZATIONS:• World Meteorological Organization

• International Astronomical Union

• European Geosciences Union

• International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics

• World Health Organization

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• Network of African Science Academies

• National science academies of:US, Russia, UK, Germany, Japan, Canada, France, Brazil,

Italy, India, China, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, …

PROJECTED TEMPERATURE RISES:

HEAT WAVE PROBLEMS

• 40,000 deaths by heat wave in western Europe in 2003

• 15,000 deaths by heat wave in Russia this summer

INCREASED INTENSITY OF HURRICANES

• Global warming causes the sea temperatures to rise, hurricanes get their energy from the hot ocean surface, so hotter oceans mean more intense hurricanes

• The intensity of hurricanes will rise, not their frequency

• Here in Louisiana, we have been living through the proof:

– 1960-2004 (44 yrs) Camille (1969)

Betsy (1965)

– 2004-2010 (6 yrs) Katrina (2005)

Rita (2005)

Gustav (2008)

Ike (2008)

SEA LEVEL RISING

• Heating up of water (by global warming) causes water to expand, raising sea levels– (currently, this is the dominant effect)

• Melting of the Greenland and Antarctic icecaps raises sea levels– (melting of floating polar sea ice does not raise sea levels)

• Thermal inertia in icecaps is huge takes centuries to melt the icecaps

• 21st century sea level rise is expected to be 1.5-4 feet– (disastrous for many island nations, low coastal areas, and anyone near the ocean)

• If all icecaps melted (will take >1000 years), ‘only’ 250 feet sea level rise– (majority of world’s population becomes homeless)

BUT THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THAT THE CLIMATE WILL CHANGE,

CAUSING DROUGHTS IN MANY PLACES, FLOODING IN OTHERS

• Monsoon rains in Pakistan last month, all-time worst,

1400 die in floods, 13,000,000 people displaced

• All Australia will become permanent severe drought,

all farming & livestock raising will be lost

• Sub-Sahara Africa; drought worsens and extends

EFFECTS OF GREENHOUSE GASESOVER YOUR LIFETIMES

• Average temperature rise of 3°-10°F

• Ocean level raises 1.5-4 feet

• Droughts in some regions

• Greatly increased rain in other regions

FOR LOUISIANA:

• Lose ~4000 sq.miles of land

• Increased intensity of hurricanes

• 5°-10° hotter summers

GLOBAL WARMING CONCLUSIONS• The world is heating up fast,

now at a rate of 1°F per 25 years

• Global warming is certainly caused by man-made greenhouse gases

(mainly from burning fossil fuels and deforestation)

• In your lifetimes; 4°-10°F warming, 1.5-4 feet sea level rise,

high intensity hurricanes, massive droughts around world…

• The science is sure and confident, but, what-to-do about these effects is a political-social question…