eastern region activities fred mcmullen sub-regional aviation workshop wfo columbia, sc 26 february...
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Eastern Region ActivitiesEastern Region Activities
Fred McMullen
Sub-Regional Aviation Workshop
WFO Columbia, SC
26 February 2009
Fred McMullen
Sub-Regional Aviation Workshop
WFO Columbia, SC
26 February 2009
Measuring Weather / Traffic Impact
Measuring Weather / Traffic Impact
Traffic Demand
National Airspace System (NAS)
ATM, Airline Response Strategies
Operational Outcomes
Local Airport Weather
En-route Convective Weather
Capacity, Safety constraints
The Weather Index expresses severity of weather impact on the NAS, weighted by air transportation service demands
Queuing Delay Modeled by Wx Index Software, PHL, Dec 14, 2006
0
30
60
90
120
150
0600Z Dec 14 - 0600Z Dec 15, Hourly Wx Observations
Ho
urly
Dem
and
, Est
imat
ed C
apac
ity,
an
d D
elay
Dep+Arr demand
Dep+Arr capacity
Queuing Delay, Hrs
Actual queuing delays at PHL on 12/14/06 were significant (223 flights delayed > 15 min) and there were approx. 100 cancellations (so the resulting queuing delay was less than it could have been if there were no cancellations)
Optimum capacity in good Wx
WITI is a weighted sum of three components:
WITI is a weighted sum of three components:
Weather Impacted Traffic Index (WITI)
Quantifies “the hand the NAS was dealt today”
Weather Impacted Traffic Index (WITI)
Quantifies “the hand the NAS was dealt today”
– En-route Component reflecting impact of convective weather on routes to/from major airports
– Terminal Component for major airports: local weather impact
– Queuing Delay Component for same airports reflecting excess traffic demand vs. capacity
Used by the FAA on a regular basis:• Measure system performance in an objective manner • Compare different seasons’ Wx/traffic impact with outcomes (e.g. delays)
Weather is weighted by tra
ffic
WITI-FA (“Forecast Accuracy”)WITI-FA (“Forecast Accuracy”)
• En-route weather• E-WITI uses actual convective Wx data (NCWD)
• E-WITI-FA uses convective forecast data, (CCFP)
• Both use the same scheduled traffic on major flows
• Convective forecast data is converted to “quasi-NCWD” format (probability or intensity of Wx converted to % max NCWD score for hexagonal grid cells)
• Terminal weather• T-WITI uses actual surface Wx data (METARs)
• T-WITI-FA uses forecast data (TAFs)
• Both use the same scheduled traffic at major airports
• TAF converted to quasi-METAR form, “rolling look-ahead” stream
• En-route weather• E-WITI uses actual convective Wx data (NCWD)
• E-WITI-FA uses convective forecast data, (CCFP)
• Both use the same scheduled traffic on major flows
• Convective forecast data is converted to “quasi-NCWD” format (probability or intensity of Wx converted to % max NCWD score for hexagonal grid cells)
• Terminal weather• T-WITI uses actual surface Wx data (METARs)
• T-WITI-FA uses forecast data (TAFs)
• Both use the same scheduled traffic at major airports
• TAF converted to quasi-METAR form, “rolling look-ahead” stream
NCWD CCFP converted to Quasi-NCWD
“Delta Wx”
Wx itself wasoverforecast
“Delta Weather” vs. “Delta Weather Impact” (Delta WITI)
Large areas covered by this CCFP see very little traffic
“Delta Weather” vs. “Delta Weather Impact” (Delta WITI)
E-WITI(NCWD)
WITI-FA (CCFP converted to Quasi-NCWD)
“Delta WITI”
Wx impact on traffic wasunderforecast
“Delta Weather” vs. “Delta Weather Impact” (Delta WITI)
Terminal WITI Based on Forecast Wx T-WITI-FA
Terminal WITI Based on Forecast Wx T-WITI-FA
• Apply the methodology developed for en-route convective weather (E-WITI-FA) to terminal weather
• First, compute T-WITI using METARs
• Then, compute T-WITI-FA using TAFs for same airports
• Apply the methodology developed for en-route convective weather (E-WITI-FA) to terminal weather
• First, compute T-WITI using METARs
• Then, compute T-WITI-FA using TAFs for same airports
FTUS43 KLOT 302300KORD 010423Z 010424 05012KT P6SM BKN250 FM0900 12007KT P6SM BKN250 FM1400 24012KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB FM1800 30012G18KT P6SM BKN040 FM2200 01012KT P6SM FEW050=
metar KORD 2006 4 9 1456 null 999 10 10 7 -3 null -2 8 49 -1 4 30.29 nullmetar KORD 2006 4 9 1556 null 999 10 10 9 -3 null 0 9 43 250 5 30.29 BRmetar KORD 2006 4 9 1656 null 250 10 10 11 -3 null 1 10 38 120 5 30.27 RABRmetar KORD 2006 4 9 1756 null 250 10 10 11 -3 null 1 10 38 0 0 30.24 nullmetar_sat KORD 2006 4 9 1756 null 250 10 10 11 -3 null 1 10 38 0 0 30.24 null
9
WITI In Operations WITI In Operations
Monday, December 15, 2008
IAH: Low ceilings, GDP of 36
According to WITI model for ceilings above 700 Ft, AAR of about 82 could have been sustained (according to FAA OIS, IAH AAR for IMC varies from about 72 to 80 depending on ceilings)
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20
40
60
80
100
120
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5
AAR
Hour, Z
IAH, Dec 15, 2008 Arrival Rates
Actual arrivals
Arr rate based on METAR
Arr rate based on 4hr TAF
Scheduled arrivals
HR, Z13 METAR VSB_0.0 4hr_TAF CLG_0800 RAIN14 METAR CLG_0300 4hr_TAF CLG_0800 RAIN15 METAR CLG_0500 4hr_TAF NONE RAIN16 METAR CLG_0700 4hr_TAF CLG_1700 W_350/15G2517 METAR CLG_0700 4hr_TAF CLG_1700 W_350/15G2518 METAR CLG_0800 4hr_TAF CLG_1700 W_350/15G2519 METAR CLG_1200 4hr_TAF NONE W_350/15G2520 METAR CLG_1400 4hr_TAF NONE W_350/15G2521 METAR CLG_1400 4hr_TAF CLG_0700 RAIN22 METAR CLG_1600 4hr_TAF CLG_0700 RAIN23 METAR CLG_1400 4hr_TAF CLG_0700 RAIN0 METAR CLG_1200 4hr_TAF CLG_0700 RAIN1 METAR CLG_1000 4hr_TAF CLG_0700 RAIN2 METAR CLG_1000 4hr_TAF CLG_0700 NONE3 METAR CLG_1000 4hr_TAF CLG_1400 NONE4 METAR CLG_0800 4hr_TAF CLG_0300 NONE5 METAR NONE 4hr_TAF CLG_0300 NONE
IAH METAR and TAF data
10
WITI In Operations WITI In Operations
Monday, December 15, 2008
LGA: Wind, GDP of 32-36
Actual wind was generally below 15 Kt, less than forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5
AAR
Hour, Z
LGA, Dec 15, 2008 Arrival Rates
Actual arrivals
Arr rate based on METAR
Arr rate based on 4hr TAF
Scheduled arrivals
Hour, Z CIGS Wind CIGS Wind11 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE NONE12 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE NONE13 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE NONE14 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE W_200/17G2515 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE NONE16 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE NONE17 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE NONE18 METAR NONE W_240/21G27 4hr_TAF NONE W_190/17G2719 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE W_190/17G2720 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE W_190/17G2721 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE W_180/13G2222 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE MW_200/13G1823 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF NONE MW_200/13G180 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF CLG_2500 NONE1 METAR NONE NONE 4hr_TAF CLG_2500 NONE
LGA METAR and TAF data
WITI In OperationsWITI In Operations
Onset of clouds AOB 2300ft happened
earlier than forecast
AvnFPSAvnFPS
Operational Impact CapabilityOperational Impact Capability
Assessing Forecast Impact on Operations
Assessing Forecast Impact on Operations
• Part of QC’ing TAFs before dissemination
– Default checks on TAFs are from NWSI 10-813
• Fuel-Alternate
– vsby < 3 miles or ceilings < 2000 feet
• LIFR Condition
– vsby < 1 mile or ceilings < 500 feet
• More sophisticated checks are possible and can be tailored to specific airports having unique operational constraints
• Part of QC’ing TAFs before dissemination
– Default checks on TAFs are from NWSI 10-813
• Fuel-Alternate
– vsby < 3 miles or ceilings < 2000 feet
• LIFR Condition
– vsby < 1 mile or ceilings < 500 feet
• More sophisticated checks are possible and can be tailored to specific airports having unique operational constraints
TAF Impact WritingTAF Impact Writing
• Elements of the TAF forecast groups can be examined and used in expression attribute of impact rules
– Presence of thunderstorms (ts) [True/False]
– Visibility (vsby) [statue miles]
– Ceiling Height (cig) [feet]
– Wind (wind.shift,wind.cross,wind.runway) [knots]
• ‘expr’ is a Python expression that evaluates either True or False.
• Elements of the TAF forecast groups can be examined and used in expression attribute of impact rules
– Presence of thunderstorms (ts) [True/False]
– Visibility (vsby) [statue miles]
– Ceiling Height (cig) [feet]
– Wind (wind.shift,wind.cross,wind.runway) [knots]
• ‘expr’ is a Python expression that evaluates either True or False.
TAF Impact WritingTAF Impact Writing
• A forecast of strong crosswinds at a major hub can cause ground delays. Use BOS as an example.
– Need runway orientations to calculate wind components orthogonal and parallel to runway(s)
• A forecast of strong crosswinds at a major hub can cause ground delays. Use BOS as an example.
– Need runway orientations to calculate wind components orthogonal and parallel to runway(s)
Runway 4R/22L referenced as [0]Runway 9/27 referenced as [1]Runway 15R/33L referenced as [2]
TAF Impact WritingTAF Impact Writing
wind[n].cross = crosswind for runway #n
wind[n].runway = parallel component to runway #n
wind[n].shift = tail-to-head or head-to-tailwind change from last forecast group (T or F)
• Edit /awips/adapt/avnfps/etc/tafs/KBOS/impact.cfg
wind[n].cross = crosswind for runway #n
wind[n].runway = parallel component to runway #n
wind[n].shift = tail-to-head or head-to-tailwind change from last forecast group (T or F)
• Edit /awips/adapt/avnfps/etc/tafs/KBOS/impact.cfg[conditions]items=cond_1,cond_2,cond_3,cond_4 : :[cond_3]tag=wshftlevel=2text=significant windshift on 15R/33Lexpr=wind[2].shift and wind[2].runway>15
[cond_4]tag=xwlevel=3text=significant crosswind on 15R/33Lexpr=wind[2].cross>15
Monitoring CustomizationMonitoring Customization
• See AvnFPS User’s Guide Appendix B for more details
• See AvnFPS User’s Guide Appendix B for more details
• AvnFPS Rule Editor allows customized rules of many sources
– METARs
– Lightning
– LLWS
– CCFP
TAF Editor ToolsTAF Editor Tools
• Dropping new modules into the /toolpy directory will cause it to show up in the TAF Editor
• Dropping new modules into the /toolpy directory will cause it to show up in the TAF Editor
• More details on writing TAF Editor tools can be found in Appendix F of the AvnFPS User’s Guide
Enhanced ServicesEnhanced Services
• Routine 3 hour amendments (at least the OEP Airports)
• CONSISTENCY between products
• Coordinate with CWSUs
• 06Z and 12Z TAFs are very important
• Timing of convection is key in the 06Z and 12Z TAFs
• Be situationally aware of the CCFP product
• Routine 3 hour amendments (at least the OEP Airports)
• CONSISTENCY between products
• Coordinate with CWSUs
• 06Z and 12Z TAFs are very important
• Timing of convection is key in the 06Z and 12Z TAFs
• Be situationally aware of the CCFP product
Best PracticesBest Practices
• Focus on the first six hours of the forecast
• Lean toward GFS-LAMP when IFR conditions are occurring
• An average of the guidance is often a good forecast.
• Check Arrival Fix
• Focus on the first six hours of the forecast
• Lean toward GFS-LAMP when IFR conditions are occurring
• An average of the guidance is often a good forecast.
• Check Arrival Fix
http://www.fly.faa.gov/Products/AADC/aadc.html
Corridor Integrated Weather System
Corridor Integrated Weather System
Real-timeWeatherProductGenerator
TDWR NEXRAD Canadian
LLWAS ASOS
Models (e.g., RUC)
Weather Radars
Surface Weather
Pilots
Web-based Tools
Dedicated Displays
DecisionSupport Tools
Aircraft
Lightning
Satellites
• Provides integrated weather picture to FAA and Airline personnel
• Accurate 2-hour convective weather forecast, echo top information
• 91 Dedicated displays, > 60 Web users
• 24/7 Availability
• Provides integrated weather picture to FAA and Airline personnel
• Accurate 2-hour convective weather forecast, echo top information
• 91 Dedicated displays, > 60 Web users
• 24/7 Availability
Strategic PlanningStrategic Planning
• Air Traffic Management (ATM) Planning
– ‘Tactical’ Planning (0-2hr)– ‘Strategic’ Planning (2-6hr)
5 hr
2 hr
2 hr3 hr
Median Flight Time ~ 2 hr
Web Site Access to CIWS Products
http://ciwswww.wx.ll.mit.edu
Web Site Access to CIWS Products
http://ciwswww.wx.ll.mit.edu
Pre-June 2008 Legacy Domain
Post-June 2008 CONUS Domain
Response to User Requests
All products are accessible from a single window
Coverage is extended to the entire continental US
All products loop
Colors for the Forecast and Verification Contours and
the Growth and Decay Trends products are added
to the legend
Updated loop controls provide greater flexibility,including ability to toggle through images
Winter ModeWinter Mode
Winter Precipitation ProductWinter Precipitation Product
• Provides additional detail within Level 1 precipitation, which may contain light (Level 1a), moderate (Level 1b), or heavy (Level lc) snow or mixed precipitation
• Precipitation phase is represented in greens (rain), pinks (mixed), and blues (snow)
• Loops from -120 min to present in user-selectable increments
Filter Options
Product Status Buttons
Winter Precip Forecast ProductWinter Precip Forecast Product
• Loops available from 5 min to 120 min in 5-min increments
– Loop interval displayed on Website is user-selectable
• Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi (8 km) to ~0.5 nmi (1 km)
• Update rate: 5 min
Filter forecast levels
Product Status Buttons
Convective ModeConvective Mode
Growth and DecayGrowth and Decay
Forecast ContoursForecast Contours
CIWS ForecastCIWS Forecast
WFO Operational UsesWFO Operational Uses
• 0-2 hour timing for TAFs and AWWs• 0-2 hour timing for TAFs and AWWs
KBOS 281120Z 281212 27006KT P6SM FEW250
FM1500 20007KT P6SM BKN250
FM1800 15011KT P6SM SCT050
FM2200 20009KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB
FM0200 24008KT P6SM SCT050=
KBOS 281740Z 282118 28014G19KT P6SM VCSH SCT060
FM0200 24008KT P6SM SCT050
FM1500 28010KT P6SM SCT050=
12Z TAF
18Z TAF
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1224 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008
...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING UNTIL 130 PM…
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS LOGAN AIRPORT AROUND 1 PM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRPORT BEFORE 130 PM.
1625z CIWS Forecast Contours
WFO Operational UseWFO Operational Use
• Enhanced Short Term Forecasting• Enhanced Short Term Forecasting
6 Hour PoP Forecast
2 Hour PoP Forecast Using CIWS
WikiWiki
David L. Beachler WFO-CTP
Fred McMullen ERH-RAM
David L. Beachler WFO-CTP
Fred McMullen ERH-RAM
What is it and why…What is it and why…
• Wiki -> Wikipedia
– Housed on a centralized server, and maintained by anyone wishing to participate
– Information provides background to local program areas, and a means to share information with fewer email traffic
• AVN page serves as a clearinghouse:
– Organized format, provides resources in a timely fashion (Service Backup…TAFs)
• Runway charts, approach diagrams, etc… will show example from WFO-CTP later
• Wiki -> Wikipedia
– Housed on a centralized server, and maintained by anyone wishing to participate
– Information provides background to local program areas, and a means to share information with fewer email traffic
• AVN page serves as a clearinghouse:
– Organized format, provides resources in a timely fashion (Service Backup…TAFs)
• Runway charts, approach diagrams, etc… will show example from WFO-CTP later
ERH-MSD Aviation WikiERH-MSD Aviation Wiki
• Eastern Region (ER) RAM can provide information to Aviation Focal Points (AFPs)
• AFPs have access to best practices from other ER WFOs
– Outside box thinking
• Serve as a resource for WFOs conducting service backup
• Eastern Region (ER) RAM can provide information to Aviation Focal Points (AFPs)
• AFPs have access to best practices from other ER WFOs
– Outside box thinking
• Serve as a resource for WFOs conducting service backup
So where do we start…So where do we start…
• ERH now maintains ER-Wiki server
https://collaborate.werh.noaa.gov/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
(email username without @noaa.gov and email password)
• ERH now maintains ER-Wiki server
https://collaborate.werh.noaa.gov/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
(email username without @noaa.gov and email password)
The look…The look…
ERH-MSD Main Page…ERH-MSD Main Page…
ERH-Aviation page…ERH-Aviation page…
Collaborative Tools…Collaborative Tools…
AVN-CTP…AVN-
CTP…
Standardized Template…Standardized Template…
• WFO-AFPs will have their own section:
– This will be uniform amongst all offices in the structure
TAF sites/Airport Specific Info/Amendment Criteria (SSTAC)
• ER Verification Monthly Scores
Standardized Template (draft)…Standardized Template (draft)…
Training…Training…
• Previously mentioned, no IT background needed
• The ER-AVN Wiki page continues to evolve
– Improvements as more provide feedback
• Standardized nomenclature for AVN items
– This will provide a means to remain efficient
– Prevent future issues with overlaps
• This is common amongst time sensitive documents that can be uploaded
Contact Info…Contact Info…
• David L. Beachler WFO-CTP AFP
• Fred McMullen ERH-RAM
