ECLAC’S PRESENTATIONSECLAC’S PRESENTATIONSADPC-WB Workshop - August 13-15, 2002 / Bangkok, ThailandADPC-WB Workshop - August 13-15, 2002 / Bangkok, Thailand

1: Presentation of ECLAC Methodology1: Presentation of ECLAC Methodology2: Sectoral Revision of Assessment in 2: Sectoral Revision of Assessment in

ECLAC MethodologyECLAC Methodology3: Country experiences: World Bank’s 3: Country experiences: World Bank’s

experience in India and Turkeyexperience in India and Turkey4: Global overview/Macro Effects of a 4: Global overview/Macro Effects of a

Disaster in ECLAC Methodology Disaster in ECLAC Methodology

Presentation of the ECLAC Presentation of the ECLAC methodologymethodology

General considerationsGeneral considerations Valuation as a tool for reconstruction, Valuation as a tool for reconstruction,

mitigation and planning resiliencemitigation and planning resilience Usefulness of historical recordsUsefulness of historical records Methodological considerationsMethodological considerations

Definitions: risk, vulnerability, mitigation recurrence, Definitions: risk, vulnerability, mitigation recurrence, etc.etc.

Basic concepts: direct (assets/capital), indirect Basic concepts: direct (assets/capital), indirect (flows/economical, financial, fiscal)(flows/economical, financial, fiscal)

Valuation criteriaValuation criteria Sources of information: remote, statistical, direct Sources of information: remote, statistical, direct

observation, surveys, second hand, etc.observation, surveys, second hand, etc.

WHAT IS IT:WHAT IS IT:

A tool for the socio-economic and environmental A tool for the socio-economic and environmental assessment of disastersassessment of disasters

Multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary damage evaluation Multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary damage evaluation and quantification method for disaster affected sectorsand quantification method for disaster affected sectors

Standard sectoral procedures that allows comparability Standard sectoral procedures that allows comparability of resultsof results

Instrument for the decision making process and for Instrument for the decision making process and for policy formulation as it identifies more severely affected policy formulation as it identifies more severely affected sectors, geographical areas and vulnerable groupssectors, geographical areas and vulnerable groups

Conceptual improvement for measuring aspects not Conceptual improvement for measuring aspects not included in national accounting and assessing specific included in national accounting and assessing specific vulnerability (of social groups, such as women and the vulnerability (of social groups, such as women and the environment)environment)

WHAT IT DOES:WHAT IT DOES:

Allows projecting future performance of the affected Allows projecting future performance of the affected economy in the short and medium term, and implement economy in the short and medium term, and implement the necessary corrective economic policy measuresthe necessary corrective economic policy measures

Allows to determine the State’s capacity to face Allows to determine the State’s capacity to face reconstruction tasks and determine needs for cooperation reconstruction tasks and determine needs for cooperation and international financingand international financing

Facilitates training in damage valuation and formulation of Facilitates training in damage valuation and formulation of mitigation strategiesmitigation strategies

Involves affected population with relevant authorities and Involves affected population with relevant authorities and aid providersaid providers

Puts in evidence the systemic character of the Puts in evidence the systemic character of the development process and the interaction among sectors development process and the interaction among sectors and stakeholdersand stakeholders

Social Social sectorsectorss

InfrastructInfrastructure and ure and servicesservices

ProductivProductive sectorse sectors

EnvironmEnvironmentent

Dynamic interaction between Dynamic interaction between sectors and activities with natural sectors and activities with natural

occurrences:occurrences:

Vulnerability and mitigationVulnerability and mitigationMudslides Mudslides and silt and silt depositsdeposits

Landslips, Landslips, avalanches avalanches and erosionand erosion

GroundsweGroundswells, sea lls, sea surges and surges and high waveshigh waves

Flooding Flooding and rainand rain

Vicious circle: Man, Environment, Vicious circle: Man, Environment, DisastersDisasters

Human actions Human actions progressively progressively deteriorate the deteriorate the environmentenvironment

Natural phenomena Natural phenomena affect the environment affect the environment (positively / negatively)(positively / negatively)

Impact of disasters Impact of disasters tends to increasetends to increase

NATURALNATURALPHENOMENAPHENOMENA

HUMANHUMANACTIONSACTIONS

ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT

**SOCIAL SOCIAL

STABILITYSTABILITY

SECURITYSECURITY

((ReducedReduced

Vulnerability)Vulnerability)

GOOD GOOD GOVERNANCEGOVERNANCE

ECONOMIC ECONOMIC RECOVERYRECOVERY

BREAKING THE CYCLE OF CONFLICT BREAKING THE CYCLE OF CONFLICT AND RESUMING THE PATH OF AND RESUMING THE PATH OF DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENTTheThe World World BankBank’s Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Team, SDV’s Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Team, SDV

SEQUENCE OF EFFECTSSEQUENCE OF EFFECTS

PHENOMENON:PHENOMENON:

CharacteristicsCharacteristics (physical description, (physical description, typology and context) typology and context)

EFFECTS:EFFECTS: directdirectindirectindirect

LINKAGESLINKAGESMenace Menace VulnerabilityVulnerability Risk Risk

Impact/Benefit of reconstruction (global, by sector) Impact/Benefit of reconstruction (global, by sector) Reduce vulnerabilityReduce vulnerabilitySynergies for reconstruction: “appropriation” of risk by Synergies for reconstruction: “appropriation” of risk by affected/menaced population (community, social group, sector, affected/menaced population (community, social group, sector, country)country)

SOME DEFINITIONS IN SOME DEFINITIONS IN DISASTERSDISASTERS

PREVENTIONPREVENTION the “before” the “before”

actionsactions

Actions (programmes, projects) Actions (programmes, projects) with the objective of anticipating with the objective of anticipating and counteract the negative and counteract the negative consequence an event may have consequence an event may have (hydro-meteorological, climatic, (hydro-meteorological, climatic, seismic, tectonic, geological, seismic, tectonic, geological, even technological, industrial or even technological, industrial or “complex” “complex”

It implies namely operational and It implies namely operational and organisation actions, training of organisation actions, training of potentially affected groups and potentially affected groups and population to face a disaster’s population to face a disaster’s consequences.consequences.

SOME DEFINITIONS IN SOME DEFINITIONS IN DISASTERS (2)DISASTERS (2)

MITIGATIONMITIGATION encompasses encompasses

actions “before”, actions “before”, “during” and “during” and “after”“after”

Actions (programmes, project) Actions (programmes, project) with the objective of with the objective of counteracting (reducing the counteracting (reducing the negative impact) of an negative impact) of an occurrence.occurrence.

Includes allocation of Includes allocation of resources to reinforce resources to reinforce structures, redesign or alter structures, redesign or alter existing elements to reduce existing elements to reduce vulnerability in addition to vulnerability in addition to training and organisation training and organisation (including at the community (including at the community level)level)

SOME DEFINITIONS IN SOME DEFINITIONS IN DISASTERS (3)DISASTERS (3)

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY calculation made calculation made

on the basis or on the basis or recurrence and recurrence and severity of severity of disastrous eventsdisastrous events

Risk factors or exposure to Risk factors or exposure to danger of existing physical danger of existing physical structures (buildings, houses, structures (buildings, houses, etc.) and basic infrastructure etc.) and basic infrastructure (lifelines, transportation and (lifelines, transportation and communications, etc.). communications, etc.).

Conditions of human Conditions of human settlements and localisation settlements and localisation of productive activities of productive activities (primary, industrial,l tertiary (primary, industrial,l tertiary or services) and their linkage or services) and their linkage among them and with the among them and with the environment.environment.

SOME DEFINITIONS IN SOME DEFINITIONS IN DISASTERS (4)DISASTERS (4)

DISASTER DISASTER REDUCTIONREDUCTION

encompasses encompasses actions actions “before”, “before”, “during” and “during” and “after”“after”

Actions (programmes, project) Actions (programmes, project) with the objective of reducing with the objective of reducing vulnerability and exposure to vulnerability and exposure to risk in the face of the interaction risk in the face of the interaction between human action and between human action and natural foreseeable or recurrent natural foreseeable or recurrent events.events.

Implies the use (design and Implies the use (design and enforcement) of construction enforcement) of construction codes, land-use regulation, codes, land-use regulation, space planning, institutional space planning, institutional arrangements and community arrangements and community involvementinvolvement

SOME DEFINITIONS IN SOME DEFINITIONS IN DISASTERS (5)DISASTERS (5) RISK RISK

MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT (actions to be (actions to be

carried out carried out “before” with “before” with consequences consequences “during” and “during” and “after”)“after”)

Pro-active strategy (in contrast to Pro-active strategy (in contrast to re-active response) to reduce re-active response) to reduce vulnerability and counteract risk vulnerability and counteract risk factorsfactors

Its objective is disaster reductionIts objective is disaster reduction Is not a sector action but a global Is not a sector action but a global

set of actions encompassing all set of actions encompassing all sectors, beginning with sound sectors, beginning with sound environmental managementenvironmental management

Is not a conservation policy per-se Is not a conservation policy per-se but requires sustainability criteria but requires sustainability criteria both in terms of natural resources both in terms of natural resources and human intervention.and human intervention.

SOME DEFINITIONS IN SOME DEFINITIONS IN DISASTERS (6)DISASTERS (6) DISASTER DISASTER

MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT actions to be actions to be

carried “during” carried “during” and the and the immediate immediate (short-term) (short-term) “after”“after”

The response strategy (re-active The response strategy (re-active strategy) to, after the occurrence of strategy) to, after the occurrence of a disaster, intends to counteract its a disaster, intends to counteract its more immediate negative impact more immediate negative impact and prevent more severe effects in and prevent more severe effects in the short term. the short term.

Includes emergency actions Includes emergency actions (search and rescue, immediate (search and rescue, immediate assistance, shelter, sanitary and assistance, shelter, sanitary and health campaigns, rehabilitation of health campaigns, rehabilitation of lifelines, assessment of emergency lifelines, assessment of emergency needs and first appraisal of needs and first appraisal of reconstruction requirements.reconstruction requirements.

SEQUENCE OF DISASTER VALUATIONSEQUENCE OF DISASTER VALUATION

R EIN FO R C EMEN T /R EIN G EN EER IN GPR EVEN T IO NMIT IG AT IO N

SchedulingInput a va ila b ility

Ma teria lH um a nFina cia l

Ma croeconom ic im pa ct

T EC H N O LO G IC AL IMR PO VEMEN T At present va lue costsIncludes a sset deprecia tion

C onsiders the sta te o f a sset a t tim e of da m a geD iscounts la ck of m a intena ntce

R EPLAC EMEN T C O ST SB y econom ic sectors a nd a ctors

PublicPriva te

Pro ject form ula tionR econstrction a nd rep la cem ent

Mitiga tion a nd reinforcem entPrevention

MAC R O EC O N O MIC V IAB IL IT YSU ST AIN AB IL IT Y

C R ED IB IL IT Y

Absorption ca pa cityMa teria l

W ork forceInstitutuiona l

D om erstic resourcesC reditsD ona tionsInsura nce a nd reinsura nceExterna l resourcesC reditsD ona tions

Fina ncia l im plica tionsPublicPriva te

R EC O N ST R U C T IO N R EQ U IR EMEN T SB y econom ic a nd sector a ctors

PublicPriva te

VALU E O F D AMAG ESB y econom ic a ctors a nd sectors

PublicPriva te

ConceptsConcepts

Direct damagesDirect damages Impact on assetsImpact on assets

InfrastructureInfrastructure CapitalCapital StocksStocks

Occur immediately Occur immediately during or after the during or after the phenomenon that phenomenon that caused the disastercaused the disaster

Indirect DamagesIndirect Damages Effects on flowsEffects on flows

ProductionProduction Reduced income and Reduced income and

increased expensesincreased expenses Are perceived after the Are perceived after the

phenomenon, for a time-phenomenon, for a time-period that can last from period that can last from weeks to months, till weeks to months, till recuperation occursrecuperation occurs

Measuring the damage “delta” or Measuring the damage “delta” or damage gapdamage gap

Pre-existing Pre-existing conditions (ex ante)conditions (ex ante)

Expected Expected performance (without performance (without

disaster) 3-5 yearsdisaster) 3-5 years

Disaster impact Disaster impact (ex post)(ex post)3-5 years3-5 years

The measure The measure

Of direct and indirect damagesOf direct and indirect damages

Upon the pre-existing situation Upon the pre-existing situation

(sector by sector baselines) is aggregated into the (sector by sector baselines) is aggregated into the national accounts and determines the resulting disaster-national accounts and determines the resulting disaster-

caused scenario, as the gap over the expected caused scenario, as the gap over the expected performance prior to the event. Several scenarios may performance prior to the event. Several scenarios may be outlined, based on the assumptions made for the be outlined, based on the assumptions made for the

reconstruction processreconstruction process

THE “PERVERSE EFFECT” OF DISASTERS ON GROSS THE “PERVERSE EFFECT” OF DISASTERS ON GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION IN A SMALL ECONOMY CAPITAL FORMATION IN A SMALL ECONOMY Adapted Adapted fromfrom Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcos económicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcos económicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros paísesde nuestros países

(BID, 1999)(BID, 1999)

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DEVELOPING DEVELOPING COUNTRIESCOUNTRIESINDUSTRIALIZED INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIESCOUNTRIES

** DISASTEDISASTERR

THE EFFECT OF SUCCESSIVE DISASTERS ON THE EFFECT OF SUCCESSIVE DISASTERS ON

CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL FORMATION Adapted from Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcos económicos, ambientalesAdapted from Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcos económicos, ambientales

y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países (BID, 1999)y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países (BID, 1999)

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** TIMETIME

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DEVELOPING COUNTRIIESDEVELOPING COUNTRIIES

INDUSTRIALIZED INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIESCOUNTRIES

** DISASTERDISASTER

Know the pre-existing situationKnow the pre-existing situation

Identify the core development factors of the economyIdentify the core development factors of the economy Identify the main characteristics at the time of the Identify the main characteristics at the time of the

disaster: face of the economic cycle, seasonal disaster: face of the economic cycle, seasonal elements, indebtedness level, domestic savings, FDI elements, indebtedness level, domestic savings, FDI flows, etc.flows, etc.

Access the macroeconomic data bases from national Access the macroeconomic data bases from national authorities, academic analysts and/or consultants and authorities, academic analysts and/or consultants and advisors in the countryadvisors in the country

Identify existing econometric models for the local Identify existing econometric models for the local economyeconomy

Identify if input-output tables are available or determine Identify if input-output tables are available or determine weighing factors that indicate intersectoral linkages.weighing factors that indicate intersectoral linkages.

Acknowledge the expected or projected outcome Acknowledge the expected or projected outcome in the absence of disasterin the absence of disaster

Obtain from government, academics and/or advisors Obtain from government, academics and/or advisors and private consultants the existing scenarios or short and private consultants the existing scenarios or short and medium term projections before the disasterand medium term projections before the disaster

Build a price table at current value for the disaster Build a price table at current value for the disaster period with at least five year projections. There may period with at least five year projections. There may have been more than one pre-disaster scenario for the have been more than one pre-disaster scenario for the main economic variablesmain economic variables

Build a constant-value (real magnitude) series for the Build a constant-value (real magnitude) series for the main variables (using the country’s base year, either in main variables (using the country’s base year, either in local currency or US dollarslocal currency or US dollars

Establish the rate of exchange that will be used for the Establish the rate of exchange that will be used for the valuationvaluation

Determine the situation caused by Determine the situation caused by the disasterthe disaster Stemming from sector valuations assess the value-added Stemming from sector valuations assess the value-added

changes expected for every sector in the short term and changes expected for every sector in the short term and for a medium-term period to be agreed (3-5 years or more)for a medium-term period to be agreed (3-5 years or more)

Supported by input-output tables or sector weighing Supported by input-output tables or sector weighing factors determine the projection of damages of one sector factors determine the projection of damages of one sector to the othersto the others

A damage scenario is built (taking into account the A damage scenario is built (taking into account the measured losses at replacement value) : variations in the measured losses at replacement value) : variations in the main economic gaps is highlighted: external sector, fiscal main economic gaps is highlighted: external sector, fiscal deficit, internal equilibrium (prices, exchange rate, etc.)deficit, internal equilibrium (prices, exchange rate, etc.)

EXTERNAL IMPACT MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS SECTOR

Weighted by economic models and input / output tables available PRODUCTIVE SECTORS

Agriculture (includes cattle raising, fisheries and forestry)

IndustryCommerceServices - Financial and banking - Tourism - Personal and otherINFRASTRUCTUREWater (drinking, irrigation, drainage, sanitation and sewerage)Energy (generation, transmission, distribution)

- Electricity - Other (petroleum, gas, etc.)Transport and communicationsSOCIAL ASPECTSEducationHealthHousingCultural heritageSocial fabricENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTSTOTALGOVERNMENT SECTOR IMPLICATIONS

- Revenues - Expenditures

III. MACRO / GLOBAL IMPACT (current value)

Ex-ante situation (current period)

Ex-post situation (present period)

Short/medium term

projections1. GDPExternal Balance (A+B) - Exports - Imports A - TRADE BALANCE B - CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT BALANCE - Net loans (considering service and repayment) - Net donations - Net transfers (private) - Other net incoming resources (insurance and reinsurance payments)2. FISCAL BALANCE - Revenues - Expenditures3. CAPITAL ACCOUNT - Gross capital formation - domestic investment - foreign direct investment

Future ScenariosFuture Scenarios 11stst. Scenario: damage assessment and event’s impact, . Scenario: damage assessment and event’s impact,

without including reconstruction actionswithout including reconstruction actions Alternative reconstruction scenariosAlternative reconstruction scenarios

Taking into account no longer the replacement but the reconstruction Taking into account no longer the replacement but the reconstruction costscosts

Emerging reconstruction priorities, sector by sectorEmerging reconstruction priorities, sector by sector The emerging reconstruction strategies in the immediate weeks after The emerging reconstruction strategies in the immediate weeks after

the disasterthe disaster The economy’s absorption capacity of foreign resourcesThe economy’s absorption capacity of foreign resources The economy’s capacity to execute projectsThe economy’s capacity to execute projects The performance of key economic variables in the face of an increase The performance of key economic variables in the face of an increase

or impending reorientation of resources for reconstruction: interest or impending reorientation of resources for reconstruction: interest rates, indebtedness, inputs and production means availability (raw rates, indebtedness, inputs and production means availability (raw materials, capital goods, domestic saving, labour force, etc.)materials, capital goods, domestic saving, labour force, etc.)

Sector by sector valuation Sector by sector valuation methodologymethodology

Social SectorsSocial Sectors HousingHousing HealthHealth Education, culture, sportsEducation, culture, sports

InfrastructureInfrastructure Transport and Transport and

communicationscommunications EnergyEnergy Water and sewerageWater and sewerage

Productive sectors Productive sectors Goods: agriculture, industryGoods: agriculture, industry Services: commerce, Services: commerce,

tourism, etc.tourism, etc. Global impactGlobal impact

On the environmentOn the environment Gender perspectiveGender perspective Employment and social Employment and social

conditionsconditions Macroeconomic Macroeconomic

assessmentassessment

Social SectorsSocial Sectors

Including subsectors and issues of Including subsectors and issues of special relevance:special relevance:Food and nutritional conditionsFood and nutritional conditionsDifferential impact on womenDifferential impact on women

Productive sectorsProductive sectors

9. Agriculture, cattle raising and fishing9. Agriculture, cattle raising and fishing

10. Industry, commerce and services10. Industry, commerce and services

11. Tourism11. Tourism

BELIZE: SUMMARY OF DAMAGES TO THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR

Damages (thousands of BZ$)Total area

(Ha)

Affectedarea(Ha)

Loss ofproduction

(t)Direct Indirect Total

Grand total 113,370 37,690 266,982 77,469.0 46,889.1 124,358.1

Export crops 49,961 6,434 272,264 20,693.6 31,244.4 51,938.0Sugar 24,281 3,800 187,800 7,843.9 23,285.3 31,129.2Citrus 25,528 2,553 81,891 8,023.8 5,976.2 14,000.0Papaya (papaw) 49 42 2,376 4,294.8 1,775.9 6,070.7Habanero pepper 22 19 188 331.2 207.0 538.2Cotton 81 20 9 200.0 0 200.0

Domesticconsumption crops 21,272 14,594 42,010 20,456.9 4,821.2 25,278.1Rice 2,837 2,439 8,199 4,699.5 2,164.4 6,863.9Corn 15,827 10,994 18,485 6,927.6 0 6,927.6Soybeans 279 184 372 270.6 219.0 489.6Plantain 490 375 11,067 2,927.8 2,437.8 5,365.6Beans 182 87 97 156.5 0 156.5Other fruits 1,342 294 1,451 1,522.9 0 1,522.9Vegetables 250 180 2,107 3,792.9 0 3,792.9Root crops 65 41 232 159.1 0 159.1

Sector damagesTotal Area(Has)

Affected Area Production(Tons) Direct Indirect Total

Livestock (Heads/Meat) 554,122 38,077 173 14,560,519 4,507,300 19,067,819Cattle 52,060 288 78 181,100 4,507,300 4,688,400Pigs 19,000 130 35 24,000 0 24,000Poultry 479,000 37,635 58 121,080 0 121,080Horses 3,000 15 - 7,500 0 7,500Buffaloes 62 2 1.0 1,600 0 1,600Sheep/Goats 1,000 7 0.2 2,450 0 2,450Pastures (Has.) 42,136 17,627 - 14,222,789 0 14,222,789

Fisheries - - 198 9,554,295 6,205,908 15,760,203Lobster - - 100 4,831,508 4,941,315 9,772,823Conch - - 72 1,197,675 1,077,908 2,275,583Other fish products - - 26 167,872 186,686 354,558Fishing Equipment,Materials, Infrastructure

3,357,240 3,357,240

Beekeeping(Hives/Honey)

800 612 37 107,100 110,160 217,260

Capital Goods(excluding fisheries)

12,096,550 0 12,096,550

Machinery 148,000 0 148,000Infrastructure 11,689,000 0 11,689,000Equipment & Materials 259,550 0 259,550

Damages to agriculture, cattle Damages to agriculture, cattle raising and fishingraising and fishing

Direct damagesDirect damages Repair or reconstruction costs of agriculture, cattle farming and Repair or reconstruction costs of agriculture, cattle farming and

fishing infrastructure, including tertiary level roadsfishing infrastructure, including tertiary level roads Damages or destruction of fishing fleetDamages or destruction of fishing fleet Damages or destruction of fish farming ponds and shrimp Damages or destruction of fish farming ponds and shrimp

factoriesfactories Agriculture production ready to be harvestedAgriculture production ready to be harvested Stocked agricultural produce and grainsStocked agricultural produce and grains Losses in animal stock Losses in animal stock

Indirect damagesIndirect damages Reduced yields in future cropsReduced yields in future crops Not planting of future cropsNot planting of future crops Reduced fishingReduced fishing Loss of employmentLoss of employment Differential impact on womenDifferential impact on women

Food and nutrition estimates of Food and nutrition estimates of impactimpact

Prepare a basic foodstuff availability balance Prepare a basic foodstuff availability balance to identify food and nutritional deficitsto identify food and nutritional deficits

Identify the location and number of affected Identify the location and number of affected populationpopulation

Indirect costsIndirect costs Food cost and temporary shelter for affected Food cost and temporary shelter for affected

population deprived of food during migration population deprived of food during migration processprocess

Determine the indirect cost of imported supply and Determine the indirect cost of imported supply and food distribution campaigns to aboid malnutrition food distribution campaigns to aboid malnutrition and migrationand migration

Commerce, industry and Commerce, industry and servicesservices

Direct damagesDirect damages Repair or reconstruction costs of infrastructureRepair or reconstruction costs of infrastructure Repair or replacement cost of equipment and Repair or replacement cost of equipment and

machinerymachinery Losses in finished production (stocks and Losses in finished production (stocks and

inventories)inventories)Indirect damagesIndirect damages Reduced productionReduced production Temporary employment lossesTemporary employment losses Differential impact on womenDifferential impact on women

ManufactureManufacture

Damages in Millions of US$

Direct Indirect Total

Guarenas/Guatire industrial complex 6.4 3.0 9.4

300 small manufacturing enterprises 13.4 11.6

25.0

Damage in agro-industry … 16.5 16.5

Damages in construction-related ones 1.0 1.0 2.0

TotalsTotals 20.8 20.8 32.1 32.1 52.9 52.9

Commercial lossesCommercial losses

Damages in Millions of US$

Direct Indirect Total

Damages to supermarkets 84.3 16.9

101.9

Damages to medium-sized commerce 206.3 51.6

257.9

Damages in small and micro businesses 23.4 4.7

28.1

TotalsTotals 314.0 314.0 73.2 73.2

387.2 387.2

Damages to tourismDamages to tourism

Direct damagesDirect damages Repair or reconstruction costs of tourism infrastructureRepair or reconstruction costs of tourism infrastructure Repair or replacement cost of furniture and tourism equipmentRepair or replacement cost of furniture and tourism equipment Damages to beaches and other tourist attractionsDamages to beaches and other tourist attractions

Indirect damagesIndirect damages Temporary fall in hotel occupancy and income of enterprisesTemporary fall in hotel occupancy and income of enterprises Negative effect in linked activitiesNegative effect in linked activities Cancelled future reservations and cost of promotion campaignsCancelled future reservations and cost of promotion campaigns UnemploymentUnemployment Differential impact on womenDifferential impact on women

TOURIST ARRIVALS PROJECTED 2000-2001Philip Goldson International Airport

10,565

13,019

17,132

12,100

10,376

11,171 11,356

8,687

5,611

7,055

9,877

12,564 12,678

15,623

10,565

13,019

17,132

12,100

10,376

11,171 11,356

8,687

5,611

4,118

6,980

10,470

11,410

15,623

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4,000

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8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

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Arrivals projected without H. Keith

Arrivals projected with H.Keith

BELIZE: DIRECT DAMAGES IN TOURISM

(Ambergris Caye/San Pedro, Caye Caulker, Caye Chapel)

(Thousands ofBZ$)

Total 124,094.01. Hotel buildings (including furniture, equipment, damage golfcourse) a/

84,000.0

2. Gift shops a/ 10,000.03. Restaurants a/ 11,800.04. Landscaping b/ 2,560.05. Piers/marinas c/ 1,134.06. Seawalls + backshore d/ 10,400.07. Tourist related boats (140) a/ 4,200.0

SUMMARY OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT DAMAGES IN TOURISMSECTOR

TOTAL Impact in internationaltrade

DIRECT DAMAGE 124,094,000 79,100,000INDIRECTDAMAGE

36,299,000 36,299,000

TOTAL 160,393,000 115,284,000

Women and disastersWomen and disasters

Men and women share damage impact of Men and women share damage impact of disasters; nevertheless women face particular disasters; nevertheless women face particular effects associated with sex differenceseffects associated with sex differences

Differences in gender roles require different Differences in gender roles require different apporaches in the face of reconstructionapporaches in the face of reconstruction

Disasters and womenDisasters and women

Estimates regularly made by ECLAC include Estimates regularly made by ECLAC include damages to assets pertaining to women en damages to assets pertaining to women en each sector, as well as indirect losses of each sector, as well as indirect losses of income in remunerated workincome in remunerated work

To this should be added other assets and non-To this should be added other assets and non-formal activities, non-paid household chores formal activities, non-paid household chores performed at home, all of which are not performed at home, all of which are not included in the national accountsincluded in the national accounts

DefinitionsDefinitions

Reproductive work:Reproductive work: Renewal of workforce (child Renewal of workforce (child

care, education, etc.)care, education, etc.) Productive labour force Productive labour force

availability (household care availability (household care and cleaning, food and cleaning, food preparation, water supply, preparation, water supply, personal care and attention, personal care and attention, etc.)etc.)

Caring of labour force and Caring of labour force and population not participating in population not participating in the workplace (ill, aged, the workplace (ill, aged, incapacitated, etc.)incapacitated, etc.)

Backyard economy (to Backyard economy (to supplement income supplement income and nutrition of the and nutrition of the household):household):

Domestic bird and Domestic bird and minor livestock raisingminor livestock raising

Derivate foodstuff Derivate foodstuff within the household within the household (eggs, milk, etc.)(eggs, milk, etc.)

Fruit yardFruit yard Small subsistence lots Small subsistence lots

and parcelsand parcels

Direct damagesDirect damages

Housing, furnishings, appliances lost, when Housing, furnishings, appliances lost, when women are heads of householdwomen are heads of household

Assets in formal sectors owned by womenAssets in formal sectors owned by women Machinery and equipment of micro and small Machinery and equipment of micro and small

enterprises informally operated by women at enterprises informally operated by women at homehome

““Backyard economy” assets (small species Backyard economy” assets (small species cattle, family lot, vegetable gardens and cattle, family lot, vegetable gardens and informally raised crops)informally raised crops)

Production stocks of both formal and informal Production stocks of both formal and informal activitiesactivities

Indirect damges or lossesIndirect damges or losses

Temporary loss of remunerated work outside Temporary loss of remunerated work outside the homethe home

Production losses of micro and small Production losses of micro and small enterprisesenterprises

Same for household operated businessesSame for household operated businesses Production losses of “backyard economy”Production losses of “backyard economy” Increase in “reproductive” associated tasks Increase in “reproductive” associated tasks

and workand work Other lossesOther losses

FUTURE DEVELOPMENTSFUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT (1)VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT (1) Subject of analysis: relation of size, development and Subject of analysis: relation of size, development and

vulnerability:vulnerability: ““resilience” (strengthening and preparedness) in the resilience” (strengthening and preparedness) in the

face of: face of: shocks (internal, environmental, climatic, external)shocks (internal, environmental, climatic, external) Dependency and diversificationDependency and diversification Integration and producitve/competitive linkagesIntegration and producitve/competitive linkages Analytical-mathematical formulationAnalytical-mathematical formulation

Global (transborder, regional) impact of disasterGlobal (transborder, regional) impact of disaster Economic, social, environmentalEconomic, social, environmental Effects on the donor/relief communityEffects on the donor/relief community Effects on private sector (transnational corporations, FDI, Effects on private sector (transnational corporations, FDI,

financial markets, etc.)financial markets, etc.)

FUTURE DEVELOPMENTSFUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT (2)VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT (2) Lessons from Mitch, droughts and earthquakes in 2001, Lessons from Mitch, droughts and earthquakes in 2001,

climatic variability and 30 years of disaster valuation: climatic variability and 30 years of disaster valuation: “revisit” and appraise reconstruction process“revisit” and appraise reconstruction process

Broadening methodology to social and environmental Broadening methodology to social and environmental valuationvaluation

Enhance current methodology with consideration of Enhance current methodology with consideration of prospective alternative scenarios and macroeconomic prospective alternative scenarios and macroeconomic modelsmodels

Train national authorities in the areas of economics and Train national authorities in the areas of economics and planningplanning

Promote mitigation and risk managements policies Promote mitigation and risk managements policies beyond prevention and responsebeyond prevention and response

Internal policies:Internal policies:Include vulnerability reduction as an Include vulnerability reduction as an objective of development plans objective of development plans alongside goals of:alongside goals of:•Competitive growthCompetitive growth•Equitable developmentEquitable development•Sustainable and sustained Sustainable and sustained developmentdevelopment•Social participationSocial participation

External policies:External policies:Introduce risk Introduce risk management as part management as part of the regional of the regional international agenda, international agenda, alongsidealongside::•External competitive External competitive insertioninsertion•Benefitting from the Benefitting from the globalization processglobalization process•Inclusive regional Inclusive regional insertioninsertion

Sectoral components:Sectoral components:•Monitoring, analysis and climate Monitoring, analysis and climate forecasting, including forest firesforecasting, including forest fires•Contingency plans in key sectors, for Contingency plans in key sectors, for example:example:

•Agriculture, cattle raising, Agriculture, cattle raising, •rural poverty, rural poverty, •energy and baselinesenergy and baselines•Water and healthWater and health

•Interconnected systemsInterconnected systems•Regulation of basic services with Regulation of basic services with sponsorship of private enterprisesponsorship of private enterprise•Focalized plans for vulnerable groups, Focalized plans for vulnerable groups, including employment, food availability including employment, food availability and nutritionand nutrition•Education to reduce vulnerabilityEducation to reduce vulnerability•Diagnosis and monitoring of Diagnosis and monitoring of vulnerability at the local levelvulnerability at the local level

Proposed Proposed courses of actioncourses of action

Restore economic and Restore economic and social fabricsocial fabricRestore and strenghten Restore and strenghten productive linkages productive linkages (upstream/downstream) (upstream/downstream) Reduce internal / external Reduce internal / external vulnerabilityvulnerability

Disasters, conflict and crisis Disasters, conflict and crisis managementmanagement How to approach the different interventions required: How to approach the different interventions required:

conceptual aspects, definition problems and purpose of conceptual aspects, definition problems and purpose of the interventionsthe interventions

Are they different sides of the same coin: crisis Are they different sides of the same coin: crisis managements associated with disasters and / or conflict? managements associated with disasters and / or conflict? Conceptual quagmireConceptual quagmire

Methodological problems: needs assessments vs. Causal Methodological problems: needs assessments vs. Causal analysisanalysis

Operational problems: setting priorities and differentiating Operational problems: setting priorities and differentiating emergency from urgency: simultaneity and sequencingemergency from urgency: simultaneity and sequencing

Policy problems: positive vs. negative intervention; Policy problems: positive vs. negative intervention; resource allocation vs. policy change promotionresource allocation vs. policy change promotion

Comparative analysis of disasters and Comparative analysis of disasters and post-conflict situationspost-conflict situations

POST DISASTERS POST CONFLICT (CRISIS)Diagnosis Typology (an artificial distinction): Typology (an arbitrary distinction):

- origins /causes - “natural” - economic- extent o hydrometeoroligical

(climatic variability: cyclical, recurrent

- social

- duration o climatic (change: global change, greenhouse, etc.)

- political

- relative importance (to size, level, cycle (seasonal, economic, other) of the community / region / country affected

o geological-seismic, volcanic), geodynamics

(normally associated with wars, social / political upheaval)

- “anthropic” (chemical, industrial, etc.)- sudden (one-time event occurrence for a limited time-period)

May ensue or be aggravated by natural events

- slow (creeping, “building” such as drought and other slow-evolving climate variability), both limited or cyclical (ENSO) OR open-ended persistence (deforestation-drought, flooding and water level changes (as in the oceans)

There is an interaction of disasters and conflict and lead to dynamic evolution which is neither predictable nor linear (the phenomenon of hysteresis):

- a disaster may lead to crisis and conflict (of governability) and vulnerability (exposure to disasters) is a development issue- Conflict may lead to a disaster (by disabling response mechanisms, increasing vulnerability and exposure)

Comparative analysis of disasters and Comparative analysis of disasters and post-conflict situations (cont.)post-conflict situations (cont.)

POST DISASTERS POST CONFLICT (CRISIS)Type of effects and valuation Valuation : by sector, in terms of direct

(assets/capital losses) and indirect (flows affected) and overall impact (on economic-social-dynamics)

Not much different or unlike disaster situation.

- economic Requirements: Difference will be in the conflict or crisis events in the lack of preexisting institutional framework and governance conditions, although disasters may lead to loss or deterioration of these

- social - comparability (accepted recognized standards, homogeneity)

Requirements: distinction between

- infrastructure - reliability / credibility - emergency actions (to stop conflict, take crisis to an end) and

- institutional - distinction between “book value”, replacement and reconstruction costs

- institutional building (peace-nation building)

Account for cross-cutting issues such as differentiated gender impact, environmental impact and overall effects

In disaster institutional and governance conditions are (unless in very extreme severe cases) not destroyed.

Comparative analysis of disasters and Comparative analysis of disasters and post-conflict situations (cont.)post-conflict situations (cont.)

POST DISASTERS POST CONFLICT (CRISIS)Response to reconstruction needs, which should be “owned” by the victims and lead to mitigation, prevention and disaster reduction (in the continuum or cycle of prevention- reduced destruction-less costly reconstruction-proactive mitigation) both in terms

Respond to restoring non-conflict situation which allows for building social, human and economic capital: establishing a “normal” functioning society that sets goals, priorities and development paradigm in accordance with societal needs, culture and prior

Move from reactive to proactive interventions, leading to the local ownership of disasters’ mitigation and reduction.

Move from direct intervention to enabling and empowering local population to manage its own development process through consensus-building institutional and political commonly agreed.

As in post-conflict the development paradigm is at stake and may be subject to change. Foreign intervention is seen as supplementary to national / local / community / socially agreed strategy for reconstruction-mitigation

Foreign intervention is seen as crucial first phase in generating post conflict minimal consensus and functioning institutions and policy formulation processes.

Type of intervention