Estimating the Economic Benefits of an Improved Aquatic Ecosystem and Watershed Management in the Tanguar Haor

Wetland: An Application of Chioce Modeling

Md. Hafiz IqbalAssistant Professor (Economics)

Government Edward College, Pabna, BangladeshE-mail: vaskoriqbal@gmail.com

Eco-System Resilience and Biodiversity9 January, 2017

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o More than two thirds landmass of Bangladesh

may be classified as wetlands.

o Tanguar Haor wetland is one of the leading

wetland and ecologically critical area in

Bangladesh.

o It is a unique wetland ecosystem of great national

importance in Bangladesh due to its rich aquatic

resources.

o It is the breeding ground for fish. The estimated

number of fish species in the Tanguar Haor is more

than half of Bangladesh’s total freshwater fish

species (Doz, 1997; Nuruzzaman 1997).

o Tanguar Haor is of great importance to

Bangladesh due to its extent and of the critical

economic and ecological roles that play in

sustaining life and livelihoods options in

Bangladesh.

oAquatic ecosystem and watershed in the Tanguar

Haor are now in captious and threaten for rural

livelihood.

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Human induced and natural factors & absence of R&D strategy are

responsible for creating imbalance ecosystem in the Tanguar Haor

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o The aims of this study to find thegap between fish capturedcommunities preferences andexisting wetland policy.

o This study will be provided somepolicy for both government andinternational organization to makemore specified policies for improvelivelihood conditions of the TanguarHaor.

o The findings of this study will behelpful for similar wetland that hasfrequently faces the vulnerability.

o This study will able to generatecutting edge knowledge on aquaticecosystem and seek to address someunexplored research questions

WTPHuman

capability

Improvement of Livelihood

Management

R&D

Stakeholderspreference

Wetland policy

(So

urc

e: P

rep

ared

by t

he

auth

or,

20

15

)

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Research ObjectivesThe general objective of this study is to explore the preferences of fisher folks for improvement scenario of Tanguar Haor using

different attributes

Four research objectives are work as the main building blocks of this research

RO1. Estimate the economic benefits of improving aquatic ecosystem

RO2. Measure the willingness to pay for provision of improved aquatic

ecosystem and watershed management

RO3. Identify the determinants of improved aquatic ecosystem and watershed

management

RO4. Develop an approach for the sustainable management strategy of this Haor.

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Theoretical

MotivationStated Preference Approach

(Stated preference methods assesses the value of non-market environmental goods by using individuals stated behavior in a hypothetical scenario)

Conjoint Analysis (CA)

Contingent Valuation (CV)

Choice Experiment (CE)

Lancasterian theory of value

Random utility theory

Utility derived from a goodcomes from the characteristics

of that good, not from consumption of the

good itself

Direct & indirect determination of preference

is possible

Advantage of CE-Minimizing strategic Bias-Useful for valuing a multi-attribute public good

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Problem Statement

Stimuli refinement • Alternative identification•Attribute identification• Attribute level identification

Experimental design consideration • Type of design• Model specification (additive vs interactions)• Reducing experiment size

Generate experimental design

Allocate attributes to design column• Main effects vs interactions

Generate choice sets

Randomized choice sets

Construct survey instrument

(Source: Prepared by the auther, 2016)

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Stage 5

Stage 6

Stage 7

Stage 8

The

exp

erim

enta

l des

ign

pro

cess

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Attribute Current levels Improvement levels

Fishing control No measures Fishing control every other week during October to May, Fishing control every other month during June to September

Plantation at Haor reed land No measures Plantation with 25 m distance, Plantation with 50 m. distance

Grazing permit for cattle No measures 15 days grazing, 30 days grazing, 45 days grazing

Payment for fishing and grazing /Year No measures Tk. 30,000, Tk. 40,000, Tk. 45,000

Attributes and levels

A full factorial design, which includes all possible combinations of attributes and levels results in 36 possible combinations using orthogonal design by SPSS.

According to orthogonal design principle by using fractional design, we reduce it randomly to 16 for 4 versions of choicecard and each version contains with three alternatives (options) including the status quo with replacement procedure.Each respondent answered twice.

2 22 3 2 2 3 3 36

Option example Option A Option B Status quo

Fishing control Every other week June to September No change

Plantation at Haor reed land 50 m 25 m No change

Grazing permit for cattle 30 days 45 days No change

Payment for fishing and grazing permit 30,000 Tk. 30,000 Tk. No change

Your choice (please tike one only) A B I would not want

either A or B

An example of choice task

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Indirect utility model

Multinomial logit model Random parameter logit

model

* * * *i pfg fcr plt gpcU pfg fcr plt gpc

1 2

3 4 5

* * *

* ( * ) ( * )

( * ) ( * ) ( * )

i pfg fcr plt

gpc

U ASC pfg fcr plt

gpc ASC inc ASC age

ASC edu ASC hhs ASC kfc

1Compensatingsurplus (C1

ln exp( ) lS) n ( )oi iU U

Marginal willingness to pay(MWTP)= ( )attribute

payment attribute

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Attribute/Variable Definition

ASC Alternative specific constant (1: the alternative with changes and 0: the status quo)

fcr Fishing control (1: every other week during October to May and 2: fishing control every

other month during June to September)

plt Plantation at Haor reed land with 25 m distance and with 50 m distance

gpc Grazing permit for cattle 15 days grazing, 30 days grazing, 45 days grazing

pfg Payment for fishing and grazing permit Tk. 30,000, Tk. 40,000, and Tk. 45,000

inc Respondent’s monthly income (Continues data)

age Respondent’s age (Continuous data)

edu Respondent’s educational level (Illiterate: 0, Primary: 1, Secondary: 2, Higher

secondary: 3, under grade or graduate: 4)

hhs Respondent’s household size (family size)

kcf Captured fish per day in kg (continuous data) .

Definition of attributes and variables

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Model Multinomial logit model Random parameter logit model

Variables Coefficient Standard error P -value Coefficient Standard error P -value

ASC 1.63400*** 0.67031 0.0000 -1.72139*** 0.73062 0.0103

fcr 0.37131*** 0.59123 0.0000 0.39316** 0.60451 0.0351

plt 0.51101*** 0.40934 0.0000 0.51270*** 0.57971 0.0000

gpc 0.66079*** 0.70935 0.0000 0.67127*** 0.98903 0.0000

pfg -0.47034***0.52319 0.0000 -0.47377*** 0.52361 0.0000

inc 0.78412** 0.40789 0.0446

age 0.90185 0.41101 0.1790

edu 0.61872* 0.11402 0.1094

hhs 0.78094*** 0.14795 0.0001

kcf 0.09401* 0.60985 0.0609

Log-likelihood -377.0980 -341.6288

Pseudo R-squared 0.565853 0.230911

Akaike info criteria 0.636552 0.507791

No. of observation (n) 418 418

Income: Mean=153911; Standard deviation=121.589; Min. value: 30000; Max. value: 700000

Age: Mean=40.85650; Standard deviation=9.088471; Min. value: 20; Max. value: 70

Education level: Mean=1.17225; Standard deviation=1.40424; Min. value: 0; Max. value: 4

Family size: Mean=5.13397; Standard deviation=1.52591; Min. value: 2; Max. value: 8

Captured fish (kg/day): Mean=17.29457; Standard deviation=7.90410; Min. value1; Max. value: 177

***Significant at 1% (0.01), **Significant 5% (0.05), and *Significant 10% (0.10)

Fisher folks will pay more for improve aquatic ecosystem, livelihood & bio-diversity and lastly

“Climate-resilient Banglades”12

Attribute Coefficient Standard error P -value

Plantation 1.086469363 1.1300 0.0000

Fishing control 0.789450185 0.7823 0.0000

Grazing permit for cattle 1.404919845 1.3558 0.0000

Marginal willingness to pay for the Attribute

Alternative improvement scenario WTP for the improve scenario

Moderate scenario Tk. 7908.4559719

Upper scenario Tk. 12290.098501

Estimation of welfare effects (economic surplus)

The message

Wise use of resource and preference based choice can ensure sustainable development &

environmental protection

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Thank You all!!!

? Question? Comments? Concerns

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