Eco Eco Tipping PointsTipping Points

A New Paradigm for A New Paradigm for Strategic EnvironmentalismStrategic Environmentalism

Gerry MartenGerry MartenEast-West CenterEast-West Center

The problem with The problem with environmental problemsenvironmental problems

Overwhelmingly complex (hard to know Overwhelmingly complex (hard to know what to do)what to do)Overwhelming in scaleOverwhelming in scaleOverwhelming social and ecological Overwhelming social and ecological forces forces Attempts to solve the problems: Attempts to solve the problems: “swimming against the current”“swimming against the current”

The problem with The problem with environmental problemsenvironmental problems

Lots of “doom and gloom”Lots of “doom and gloom”

Not much about what we can do to Not much about what we can do to really make a differencereally make a difference

““Tipping point”Tipping point”

In 1950s, used by a few sociologists In 1950s, used by a few sociologists to indicate thresholds for social to indicate thresholds for social changechangeIn 2002, popularized by Malcolm In 2002, popularized by Malcolm Gladwell’s book to refer to an idea Gladwell’s book to refer to an idea “taking off”“taking off”Recently used to refer to a “point of Recently used to refer to a “point of no return” in global warming and no return” in global warming and climate changeclimate change

I use “Eco Tipping Points” to I use “Eco Tipping Points” to refer to a part of the human refer to a part of the human environment system that can set environment system that can set in motion a cascade of changes in motion a cascade of changes that transform the system from that transform the system from sustainable to unsustainable -- sustainable to unsustainable -- or vice versaor vice versa

““Eco Tipping Points” reflect the Eco Tipping Points” reflect the switching behavior of switching behavior of

human/environment systemshuman/environment systems

Introduction of Nile Perch to Lake Introduction of Nile Perch to Lake VictoriaVictoriaIntroduction of urban agricultural Introduction of urban agricultural markets to highlands in the markets to highlands in the PhilippinesPhilippinesUrban decay and sprawlUrban decay and sprawl

Eco Tipping Points Eco Tipping Points provide a lens forprovide a lens for

Understanding “how the world works” Understanding “how the world works” (Book: (Book: Human Ecology: Basic Concepts Human Ecology: Basic Concepts for Sustainable Developmentfor Sustainable Development))

Identifying doable actions to turn Identifying doable actions to turn environmental change from environmental change from unsustainable to sustainableunsustainable to sustainable

Mobilizing powerful social/ecological Mobilizing powerful social/ecological forces to work for us instead of forces to work for us instead of against usagainst us

Philippine FisheriesPhilippine Fisheries

Peak catch (1990): 2 million tons/yr Peak catch (1990): 2 million tons/yr (compared to 12 thousand tons/yr for (compared to 12 thousand tons/yr for

Hawaii)Hawaii)One-half of catch from near-shore One-half of catch from near-shore fishery (coral reef)fishery (coral reef)Traditional fishing methods:Traditional fishing methods: Hook-and-lineHook-and-line Bamboo fish trapsBamboo fish traps Gill netsGill nets

Fishery in troubleFishery in trouble

Increase in fishing effort Increase in fishing effort (200X in past 50 years)(200X in past 50 years)

Destructive fishing methodsDestructive fishing methods DynamiteDynamite Muro-amiMuro-ami Cyanide Cyanide Small-mesh netsSmall-mesh nets

Vicious CycleVicious Cycle

MORE MORE DESTRUCTIVE DESTRUCTIVE

FISHINGFISHING

HABITAT DESTRUCTION HABITAT DESTRUCTION AND FEWER FISHAND FEWER FISH

Severe decline in the Severe decline in the fisheriesfisheries

Government regulations in early 1980s Government regulations in early 1980s banning destructive fishing. banning destructive fishing.

Regulations haven’t worked.Regulations haven’t worked.

Fish stocks in many places now < Fish stocks in many places now < 5% of 50 years ago5% of 50 years ago

Average catch per unit effort now 3% of Average catch per unit effort now 3% of 50 years ago 50 years ago

The Philippine fishery didn’t The Philippine fishery didn’t collapse everywhere:collapse everywhere:

Apo Island Apo Island

75 hectares 75 hectares 140 families140 familiesNear shore fisheryNear shore fisheryCoral reef ecosystemCoral reef ecosystem

1980: The fishery was 1980: The fishery was headed for collapseheaded for collapse

Apo Island fishing grounds seriously Apo Island fishing grounds seriously depleteddepletedFishermen traveled long distances to Fishermen traveled long distances to find fishfind fish

Apo Island Negative Tip

Less concern for quality of the island’s

marine ecosystem

More fishing away from the island

Degradation of island coral reef habitat and

fish stocks

Use of destructive fishing methods

around the island

ETP:Introduction of

destructive fishing

Apo IslandApo Island

In 1979, Angel Alcala (Silliman In 1979, Angel Alcala (Silliman University, Dumaguete) proposed a University, Dumaguete) proposed a no-fishing sanctuary on 10% of the no-fishing sanctuary on 10% of the fishing grounds.fishing grounds.

Sanctuary would serve as source of Sanctuary would serve as source of fish for Island’s fishing grounds.fish for Island’s fishing grounds.

Fourteen families began a sanctuary Fourteen families began a sanctuary in 1982 (450 meters of shoreline).in 1982 (450 meters of shoreline).

Lots of fish in the sanctuary by 1985.Lots of fish in the sanctuary by 1985.

In 1985:In 1985:All families supported sanctuary. All families supported sanctuary.

Local government made sanctuary Local government made sanctuary legal.legal.

Decided to regulate the fishing Decided to regulate the fishing groundsgrounds No destructive fishing methodsNo destructive fishing methods Only Apo Island fishermen allowed to Only Apo Island fishermen allowed to

use fishing groundsuse fishing grounds

Created a volunteer “marine guard” to Created a volunteer “marine guard” to enforce the regulationsenforce the regulations

Consequences of marine Consequences of marine sanctuary and regulation of sanctuary and regulation of

fishing groundsfishing grounds

Large increase in fish stocks on Large increase in fish stocks on fishing grounds within 10 yearsfishing grounds within 10 years

Fishermen could fish almost entirely Fishermen could fish almost entirely at home (less work)at home (less work)

Virtuous cycle:Virtuous cycle:“Success breeds success”“Success breeds success”

Improvement of coral reef habitat and fishImprovement of coral reef habitat and fish

stocksstocks → Management experience, Management experience,

commitment, pride commitment, pride → Better management

→ Improvement of coral reef habitat and Improvement of coral reef habitat and

fish stocksfish stocks

Spin-offsSpin-offs

Tourism (diving, snorkeling) → Tourism (diving, snorkeling) → Money → Improvements to village Money → Improvements to village infrastructure and educationinfrastructure and education

Village organization Village organization Fisheries managementFisheries management Women’s groupsWomen’s groups

““Lock-in” Lock-in”

Ecological consciousnessEcological consciousness

Tourism regulated to prevent damage to Tourism regulated to prevent damage to fishery and marine ecosystemfishery and marine ecosystem

Family planning so they don’t overrun Family planning so they don’t overrun fisheries in futurefisheries in future

Education of new generationEducation of new generation Cherish Island’s marine ecosystemCherish Island’s marine ecosystem Ability to cope with challenges from outside Ability to cope with challenges from outside

worldworld

Apo Island Positive TipETP:

Marine sanctuary

Less use of destructive

methods

Tourism Education

Family planning

Island population

Cash

Village infrastructure

Less fishing away from the

island

Recovery of habitat and fish

stocks

Awareness & professional

capacity

Management of entire

island’s fishing grounds

Awareness of management

impact

Experience, pride,

commitment

More concern for quality of

island ecosystem

ReplicationReplication

People have come from other villages People have come from other villages to see what is happening at Apo to see what is happening at Apo Island.Island.

400 villages now have marine 400 villages now have marine sanctuaries.sanctuaries.

What can we learn What can we learn from this story?from this story?

There were There were switchesswitches from one “stability from one “stability domain” to anotherdomain” to another

There were There were leverslevers (catalytic actions): (catalytic actions): “Eco Tipping Points” (Small changes “Eco Tipping Points” (Small changes that set in motion a new direction for that set in motion a new direction for change in the larger eco-social system).change in the larger eco-social system).

Three act playThree act playAct 1: Sustainable. Act 1: Sustainable.

Act 2: Negative tip – Change from Act 2: Negative tip – Change from sustainable to unsustainable.sustainable to unsustainable.

Negative tipping point: Introduction of Negative tipping point: Introduction of destructive fishing methodsdestructive fishing methods

Act 3: Positive tip – Change from Act 3: Positive tip – Change from unsustainable to sustainable. unsustainable to sustainable.

Positive tipping point: Creation of marine Positive tipping point: Creation of marine sanctuarysanctuary

Central role of Central role of feedback loopsfeedback loops

Catalytic action: cascade of effects through the system

Vicious cycles transformed

to virtuous cycles

Additional virtuous cycles

“Lock in” – Resilience

A story from the U.S.A story from the U.S.

New York City (Bowery)New York City (Bowery)

Negative tipNegative tip: Reduction in city : Reduction in city servicesservices

Result: Acceleration of urban decayResult: Acceleration of urban decay

Vicious cycleVicious cycle

Out-migration Out-migration abandonment of abandonment of properties properties less taxes to city less taxes to city less infrastructure maintenance, less infrastructure maintenance, fewer city services, fewer people on fewer city services, fewer people on streets streets more crime more crime further further decay and out-migrationdecay and out-migration

New York City Bowery

Negative Tip

Fewer residents

More vacant properties

Less maintenance

Less income, tax revenue

Fewer people on streets

More crime

ETP:Fewer

services

Bowery & Houston, ca. 1973Bowery & Houston, ca. 1973

Positive Tipping point (1973):Positive Tipping point (1973):Transformation of a vacant lot Transformation of a vacant lot

to a community gardento a community garden

BenefitsBenefits

Environmental goods and servicesEnvironmental goods and services

Fresh foodFresh food

Green/public spaceGreen/public space

Social interaction (“Community Social interaction (“Community centers without walls”)centers without walls”)

RecyclingRecycling

Positive tipping point: Positive tipping point: Community gardens Community gardens

in vacant lotsin vacant lots

More and better gardens More and better gardens more more neighborhood pride, awareness, neighborhood pride, awareness, experience, commitment experience, commitment more more resources and knowledge to care for resources and knowledge to care for them them more and better gardens more and better gardens

Positive tipPositive tip

More attractive and safe neighborhood More attractive and safe neighborhood In-migration In-migration More resources for More resources for renovating buildings, more people on renovating buildings, more people on streets, more city services streets, more city services More More attractive and safe neighborhood attractive and safe neighborhood

New York City Bowery

Positive Tip

ETP: Garden

s

More experience, commitment

More neighborhood

awareness, pride

More attractive &

safe neighborhood

More residents

Fewer vacant

properties

More maintenance

More people on

streets

Less crime

More services

More income, tax

revenue

Lock-inLock-in

City government tried to sell garden City government tried to sell garden lots for development after lots for development after neighborhood property values neighborhood property values increased.increased.Neighborhood commitment to Neighborhood commitment to gardens, and organizational gardens, and organizational experience managing them, gave experience managing them, gave citizens the ability to fight back.citizens the ability to fight back.

Lock-in and replicationLock-in and replication

Garden supporters took legal action Garden supporters took legal action against the city.against the city.

The legal tenure of the gardens was The legal tenure of the gardens was consolidated.consolidated.

People visit from around the world to People visit from around the world to see how to set up community gardens see how to set up community gardens in their own cities.in their own cities.

600 gardens today600 gardens today

Liz Christy Memorial Garden

Tipping point at regional level Tipping point at regional level reversing urban decay/sprawlreversing urban decay/sprawl

Structured citizen participation for Structured citizen participation for regional planning:regional planning:

PortlandPortland

Salt Lake CitySalt Lake City

Minneapolis-St. PaulMinneapolis-St. Paul

AustinAustin

Stories on the website:www.ecotippingpoints.orgwww.ecotippingpoints.org

In-depth storiesIn-depth stories

Capsule talesCapsule tales

Publications Publications Journal of Policy StudiesJournal of Policy Studies WorldWatch magazineWorldWatch magazine

The stories have The stories have the same structurethe same structure

Three act playThree act play Originally sustainable Originally sustainable Negative tip: Negative tip:

SustainableSustainable→Unsustainable→Unsustainable Positive tip: Positive tip:

UnsustainableUnsustainable→Sustainable→Sustainable

Catalytic action: cascade of effects Catalytic action: cascade of effects through the systemthrough the system

Central role Central role of feedback loopsof feedback loops

Reversal of vicious cycles to form Reversal of vicious cycles to form virtuous cyclesvirtuous cycles

Formation of new virtuous cyclesFormation of new virtuous cycles

Lock-inLock-in

Applying Eco Tipping Points Applying Eco Tipping Points to practical problemsto practical problems

We can recognize environmental tipping points by hindsight.

How can we create them by foresight?

The key: Converting vicious cycles to virtuous cycles

Some Eco Tipping Point ingredients:

Central role of local community and persistent local leader

Outside stimulation and facilitation

Quick payback to stimulate commitment

Strong symbol to mobilize community support

IngredientsIngredients

Social institutions for common property resources

Social/ecological memory

Social/ecological diversity

Two Eco Tipping Point Two Eco Tipping Point success stories from Indiasuccess stories from India

Rainwater harvest in RajasthanRainwater harvest in Rajasthan

Escaping the pesticide trap Escaping the pesticide trap in Andhra Pradeshin Andhra Pradesh

Rainwater harvest in RajasthanRainwater harvest in Rajasthan

Act 1: Act 1:

Village water/forest management Village water/forest management

Earthen dams (Earthen dams (johadjohad) catch rainwater ) catch rainwater runoff to percolate into groundrunoff to percolate into ground Water stored in the aquiferWater stored in the aquifer No water loss to evaporationNo water loss to evaporation Underground delivery to wellsUnderground delivery to wells

Act 2: The “negative tip”Act 2: The “negative tip”

Commercial loggingCommercial logging ErosionErosion Siltation of Siltation of johadsjohads

Borewell/pump technologyBorewell/pump technology

Government control of water and Government control of water and forestsforests

Vicious cyclesVicious cycles

Less (or deteriorating) Less (or deteriorating) johadjohad Water table lower Water table lower Trees die Trees die More erosion/siltation More erosion/siltation Less Less johadjohadLess Less johad johad Lower water table Lower water table Less water in wells Less water in wells Decline in Decline in motivation, social institutions, motivation, social institutions, technology technology Less Less johadjohad

Vicious cyclesVicious cycles

Water table lower Water table lower Deeper wells Deeper wells Water table even lowerWater table even lower

Less irrigation water Less irrigation water Agriculture Agriculture declines declines Men move to cities Men move to cities Less labor to maintain Less labor to maintain johadjohad Less johad Less johad Lower water table Lower water table Less waterLess water

Less vegetation

Less water in wells

Lowerwater table

Deeper wellsTIPPING POINT: LOGGING

Moreerosion & sediment

Less johadcapacity

Less motivation, social institutions, technology

Rajasthan Rainwater Harvest

Negative Tip

Less irrigation water

ETP:Loggin

g

Less vegetation

Lower water table

Less johad capacity

Less motivation,

social institutions, technology

Agriculture declines

More erosion

& sediment

Less labor to maintain johad

Men move to cities

Deeper wells

Less water in wells

Spin-offsSpin-offs

Wells and rivers dried up.Wells and rivers dried up.

No water for dry season crops.No water for dry season crops.

Village forests gone.Village forests gone.

Women/children worked harder and Women/children worked harder and longer to fetch water and fuelwood.longer to fetch water and fuelwood. Women had little time for household and Women had little time for household and

money-earning activities.money-earning activities. Children couldn’t go to school.Children couldn’t go to school.

Solutions not workingSolutions not working

Indian government constructed Indian government constructed irrigation canals to carry water from irrigation canals to carry water from distant rivers to villages. distant rivers to villages.

They could only do it for a few They could only do it for a few villages.villages.

Act 3: The “positive tip”Act 3: The “positive tip”

Golpapura village (1985)Golpapura village (1985)

Rajendra Singh of TBS (Tarun Bharat Rajendra Singh of TBS (Tarun Bharat Sangh: Young India Organization) Sangh: Young India Organization) tried to set up clinic and school but told “We need water!”

Golpapura villageGolpapura village

Tipping point: A single johad restored by digging out the pond area behind the damWater filled nearby well Set up Gram Sabah (traditional village council) to manage restoration of more johad

ConsequencesConsequences

The community made more johad the next year

All wells had water within a few years

Planted trees and made rules about fuelwood collection

Vicious cycles reversedVicious cycles reversed

More success, motivation, experience, social institutions, technology

Higher water table, tree survival, less erosion/siltation

More irrigation water → More agricultural work → Men move back to village → More labor to build/maintain johad → More and better johad → More irrigation water

Morevegetation

More water in wells

Higherwater table

Lesserosion & sediment

More johadcapacity

Moremotivation, experience

TIPPING POINT:RESTORING JOHAD AND

TRADITIONAL VILLAGE COUNCIL

Rajasthan Rainwater Harvest

Positive TipMore

vegetation

Less erosion & sediment

More motivation,

experience

More johad capacity

ETP:Restoring johad

& traditional village council

More labor to maintain johad

Men return to village

More agricultural

work in village

More irrigation

water

More water in wells

Higher water table

Lock-in:Lock-in:They overcame response of the They overcame response of the

system to nullify their gainssystem to nullify their gains

Government claimed jurisdiction over Government claimed jurisdiction over underground water and forest landunderground water and forest land

Government concession for fishing in Government concession for fishing in revived riverrevived river

Replication

People came from many villages to see what was happening.

Johad now in 850 villages.

Escaping the pesticide trap Escaping the pesticide trap in Andhra Pradeshin Andhra Pradesh

Negative tipping point: Introduction of Negative tipping point: Introduction of cotton production 20 years agocotton production 20 years ago

Production inputs provided by middlemen Production inputs provided by middlemen (“traders”): seed, fertilizer, insecticides(“traders”): seed, fertilizer, insecticides

Inputs on credit, guaranteed marketInputs on credit, guaranteed market

High yields and incomes during early High yields and incomes during early yearsyears

……Things started to unravelThings started to unravel

Insecticide resistance and loss of Insecticide resistance and loss of natural control (birds and predatory natural control (birds and predatory insects)insects)Vicious cycles of higher insecticide Vicious cycles of higher insecticide applications, more resistance, and applications, more resistance, and less natural controlless natural control

Vicious cycles Vicious cycles Higher input costsHigher input costs Chronic and acute pesticide poisoning Chronic and acute pesticide poisoning Higher medical costsHigher medical costs Increasing debtIncreasing debt Dependence on middlemenDependence on middlemen

Mental disorders, despair, and Mental disorders, despair, and suicidessuicides““Lock in” (pesticide trap)Lock in” (pesticide trap)

Andhra PradeshNegative Tip

ETP:Introduction of

cotton

More pesticide

resistance

Less natural control

More suicidesLess

education

Higher costs

More child

bondage

More debt

Dependence on traders

More pesticide poisoning

Medical costs

More chemical pesticides

Technical support from

traders

Positive tipPositive tip

Positive tipping point: Introduction of Non-Pesticide Management (NPM)

NGO: Socio-Economic and Cultural Upliftment in Rural Environment (SECURE)

Neem, chili-garlic, cow dung/urine, trap plants, sticky boards, bonfires, bird perches, insect virus, deep plowing, pheromone

Positive tipPositive tip

One farmer in Punukula village tried NPM in 1996

Cotton harvest as good as with chemical insecticidesinsecticides

Input costs much less

By 1998, entire village using NPM for cotton and other crops

Cascade of effectsCascade of effects

Vicious cycles reversedNatural control returnedVirtuous cycles of success, confidence, and experienceReplaced chemical fertilizer with compostTold middleman they no longer needed him

Spin-offsSpin-offs

Women have business selling neem to Women have business selling neem to other villagesother villagesMore money to lease land for farming More money to lease land for farming and initiate entrepreneurial projects and initiate entrepreneurial projects Rescue of indentured children and Rescue of indentured children and school dropouts school dropouts Village is more assertive with Village is more assertive with governmentgovernment

Andhra PradeshPositive Tip

Less debt

Fewer suicides

Farm wages increase

Less pesticide

resistance

Less child bondage

Less pesticide poisoning

ETP:Introduction

of NPM

less chemical pesticides

Less time applying botanical pesticides

More natural control

More time

More income

Entrepreneurial activities & community

projects

Farm more landLabor demand

Lease land

More education

Lower costs

Lock-in and ReplicationLock-in and Replication

Pesticide companies tried to use influence with government to suppress Non-Pesticide Management, but not successful.

State government has asked SECURE to train agricultural extension agents in NPM.

NPM now in about 200 villages.