ecological and carboon footprints wales dec 2013
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This presentation was given to the CCCW in Dec 2013 and presents a revised Ecological Footprint for WalesTRANSCRIPT
Overview
• Project summary• Introduction to Consumption Perspective for
Environmental Accounting (Footprints)• Results – Welsh Ecological and Carbon
Footprints 2011• Method• Recommendations
Stockholm Environment Institute
• International non-profit research institute, HQ is in Stockholm
• Our goal is to bring about change for sustainable development by bridging science and policy
• www.sei-international.org
Footprint Update Project
• Aim – to update the Ecological and Carbon Footprint results for Wales to the latest year available (2011)
• Project work to date– June 2013 Review of methodologies completed– July – Nov 2013 UK domestic data preparation– Nov 2013
• Import data preparation• Environmental extensions• Impact calculation and downscaling to Wales
Introduction to Consumption-Based Accounting (Footprints)
• Estimating the environmental impacts of consumption, regardless of where production occurs
• Estimating impacts along full supply chains, re-allocating from the point of production to the final consumer
• The term footprint usually means a consumption based measure
• The term is used in different contexts for different purposes, there is no standard or agreed definition
• We consider the footprint of consumption by people
• It can be measured in terms of the land area required to deliver goods and services for consumption (ecological footprint) or the emissions emitted along the supply chains of goods or services (carbon or GHG footprint).
Introduction to Consumption-Based Accounting (Footprints)
Introduction to Consumption-Based Accounting (Footprints)
Preliminary Wales 2011 Footprint Results
• Carbon (GHG) Footprint – 11.1 tonnes CO2e per person• Ecological Footprint – 3.28 gha per person (2.5 planets)
Wales total EF by consumption theme Wales total EF by land type
Ecological Footprint
Wrexham
Isle of Anglesey
Gwynedd
Conwy
Denbighshire
Flintshire
Powys
Ceredigion
PembrokeshireCarmarthenshire
Swansea
Neath & Port
Talbot
Bridgend
Rhondda Cynon
Taff
Merthyr Tydfil
Blaenau GwentTorfaen
Caerphilly
Monmouthshire
NewportCardiff
Vale of Glamorga
n
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
gha per capita
More sustainable
Less sustainable
Wrexham
Isle of Anglesey
Gwynedd
Conwy
Denbighshire
Flintshire
Powys
Ceredigion
PembrokeshireCarmarthenshire
Swansea
Neath & Port
Talbot
Bridgend
Rhondda Cynon
Taff
Merthyr Tydfil
Blaenau GwentTorfae
nCaerphilly
Monmouthshire
NewportCardiff
Vale of Glamorga
n
10.3
10.6
10.9
11.2
11.5
11.8
12.1
t CO2e per capita
More sustainable
Less sustainable
Carbon (GHG) Footprint
Latest Detailed Breakdowns
Classification of Individual
Consumption According to Purpose
Method
• Understanding modelling assumptions for data analysis, interpretation and recommendations
• Environmentally extended input output analysis – common method for calculating indirect (supply chain) impacts of consumption
Stage 1 Data Preparation Stage 2 Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis (calculation stage) Stage 3 Downscaling
EnvironmentalAccounts
Population,HouseholdsLA, MOSAIC
DirectHouseholdImpacts
Indirect Impacts
Total sectoral intensity
Leontief Inverse*
Direct sectoral intensity
TotalImpacts
REAP model data flow (simplified)
UK:Final Demand (WUK Supply
and Use TablesTotal Output
UK: ONSNAEIGFN
Rest of World:CDIAC (GHGs)WIOD (GHGs)
GFN
Input-Output (economic) data
ROW:WIOD
Key (in alphabetical order)CDIAC: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis CenterGFN: Global Footprint NetworkHH: HouseholdLA: Local AuthorityMOSAIC: Local expenditure profiles by ExperianNAEI: UK National Atmospheric Emissions InventoryONS: Office for National StatisticsROW: Rest of WorldUK: United KingdomWIOD: World Input Output Database
Final Demand for Wales
Demographic data
x =
TotalImpacts
(per person and
by LA)
Agri Mining Const Manuf Trade Transport Services Other
Personal consumption expenditures
Private domestic investment
Government expenditures (purchases of goods and services)
Net Exports of goods and services
AgriMiningConstManufTradeTransportServicesOtherEmployeesBusiness owners and capital
Government
Indu
stry
sect
ors
Industrial sectors Final Demand
Valu
e Ad
ded
Labour costs (employee wages)
Profits, capital consumption allocances
Indirect business taxes
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Input: requirements of industry, purchasers
view
Output: sellers view, products that are sold to other industries
Indirect Impacts Using Economic Input-Output Table
1 . . . n
Intermediate flows between industries (n x n)
Value added (k x n)
Environmental Extension (r)
Final demand categories
(n x l)
GovernmentHouseholds
Capital InvestmentExports
Total output
Industries
Prod
ucts
Legend•n – no. of industries•k – no. of value added categories•l – no. of final demand categories•r – no. of carbon emissions
1...
n
1 . . . l
1
k
Total input
Breakdown of FD into 40 household consumption categories.
E.g. Kt of CO2 from that industry. Emissions intensity = Kt CO2 per unit of input
Basic Environmentally Extended Input Output Method
Product A impactProduct B impactProduct C impact
Data behind the modelsMulti-regional models – UK and the supply chains of imports from the rest of the world
The model combines the following data:
Models of the economy: • Supply and Use Tables, Input-Output
tables from the Office of National Statistics
• Global trade models (e.g. WIOD)
Country specific environmental data:• Import emissions from WIOD tables• National energy use/emissions
databases (e.g. UK Environmental Accounts)
Regional Expenditure:• MOSAIC, small area household
expenditure profiles• Household expenditure surveys
Assumptions for Wales• No input-output (IO) data available for Wales for recent year• Data for construction of IO data available for UK (supply and use of products
by industries)• Imports supplied as a single column (don’t know where they end up) –
global multi-regional IO table used to allocate imports to industries– Gives 2 region, UK and ROW IO table
• Environmental extension data– Emissions by sector from UK environmental accounts– Emissions from ROW– Global ecological footprint data from Global Footprint Network
• Consumption data– Welsh consumption data are combined with estimates of the impacts of products supplied
produced in the economy, taking into account international imports– Welsh consumption data from Household Expenditure Survey– Government expenditure data from accounts/budget data– Investment expenditure downscaled from UK
Delivering footprint reductions1 . . .
n
Intermediate flows between industries (n x n)
Value added (k x n)
Environmental Extension (r)
Final demand categories
(n x l)
GovernmentHouseholds
Capital InvestmentExports
Total output
IndustriesPr
oduc
ts
1...
n
1 . . . l
1
k
Total inputReduce emissions/land use by
industry domestically (e.g. electricity sector, gov sector e.g.
education included here)
Change or reduce final demand
expenditure on domestic and
imported goods
Indirect (supply chain impacts)
Direct Impacts Household emissions or land use emitted at the point of use (e.g. private vehicles,
burning fuel in homes)
UK
Imports from ROW
ROW for ROW
Exports to ROW
Reduce emissions/land use by industry in other
countries (along supply chains)
Alter the supply chains of industry (purchase
different products)
Reduce household emissions/land use from
homes and vehicles
Overall – if increases in consumption outweigh
efficiency improvements then footprints will continue to rise
Possible Future Trends
Energy intensity, mixed?
Consumption, rising?
Recommendations• Data
– Data in IO table is UK. Welsh Input-Output Table with Welsh Environmental Extension Data?
– Improved Welsh consumption data– Increased Welsh economic and industry data– Historical time series?– Regular model updates– UK data improvements– Local level travel data similar to energy data
• Reductions– Policy assessment and monitoring– Scenarios and trajectories– Sectoral analysis and pathways (e.g. NHS Wales Carbon Monitor)
100%
2011 2020 2030 2040 2050
Steeper reductions in later years.
Steeper reductions in early years.
80%
60%
40%
20%Eco
log
ical
fo
otp
rin
tReductions trajectory
Recommendations• Report re-emphasises the scale of challenge to achieve one planet living,
• Policies - Continue efforts to review, promote and refine existing policies and develop new ones.
• Where - Domestic emission reductions and demand management. Influence the international supply chain?
• When - Early years reductions, quick wins to increase probability of achieving the one planet living goal within a generation.
• Increased effort required to accelerate the process of decoupling carbon emissions and ecological footprint from economic growth.
– Policy examples renewable energy, smart technology and (coupled with grid decarbonisation) change in transport provision, demand management and demand reductions
Thank you!
Final Report and Full Methodology Submitted 13th December, published early new year
Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide net exports of toys (in US$) that come from there. Net exports are exports minus imports. When imports are larger than exports the territory is not shown.
Responsibility: the people who make the goods?
World toy exports
World toy imports
Responsibility: the people who consume the goods?