Ecological ImpactsEcological Impacts& Adaptive Strategies& Adaptive Strategies

Ecosystems DefinedEcosystems Defined

• ““Ecosystems are communities of Ecosystems are communities of plants, animals, microbes, and the plants, animals, microbes, and the physical environment in which they physical environment in which they exist […and describes] plantation exist […and describes] plantation forests and agricultural systems” as forests and agricultural systems” as wellwell

NAST (2000), Our Changing Climate, p. 24

Ecosystems DefinedEcosystems Defined

• ““Humans are not Humans are not apart fromapart from the Earth the Earth – they are – they are a part ofa part of the Earth.” the Earth.”

• Tony’s personal philosophyTony’s personal philosophy

Ecosystem Impacts, Ecosystem Impacts, GenerallyGenerally• Greatest impacts are to Arctic and Greatest impacts are to Arctic and

alpine ecosystems, ecosystems with alpine ecosystems, ecosystems with high levels of endemic species, island high levels of endemic species, island ecosystems, wetlands and mangrove ecosystems, wetlands and mangrove forests (especially those bounded by forests (especially those bounded by human settlements) and South African human settlements) and South African ecosystems – in other words, ecosystems – in other words, systems systems where the species have nowhere where the species have nowhere left to goleft to go

Ecosystem Impacts, Ecosystem Impacts, GenerallyGenerally

NAST (2000), Our Changing Climate, p. 25

Tropical RainforestTropical Rainforest

Source: http://www.uwsp.edu/geo/faculty/ritter/images/ biosphere/vegetation/rainforest_Congo_FAO.jpg

Source: http://pas.byu.edu/pas100/peten_rainforest.jpg

Taiga/Boreal ForestTaiga/Boreal Forest

Source: http://www.nearctica.com/biomes/boreal/ taiga1.jpg

Source: http://www.nearctica.com/biomes/boreal/ taiga2.jpg

Tundra BiomeTundra Biome

Source: http://waynesword.palomar.edu/images/biome2b.jpg

Source: http://www.marietta.edu/~biol/biomes/images/ tundra/alaskapipeline1.jpg

Taiga/Tundra EcotoneTaiga/Tundra Ecotone

Source: http://fp.bio.utk.edu/botany120lect/Biomes/Biome01/ArealAlaskaTundra-Shanks.JPG

Ecosystem Impacts, Ecosystem Impacts, GenerallyGenerally

•The Golden Toad of the Cloud Forests of Costa Rica may be the first climate change casualty

Warren, R. (2006)

van Vliet, A., and Leemans, R. (2006)

Lanchberry, J. (2006)

(etc.)

Ecosystem Impacts, Ecosystem Impacts, GenerallyGenerally• Climate change is just one significant Climate change is just one significant

threatthreat• It acts in concert with other human effectsIt acts in concert with other human effects

– Habitat destruction (deforestation, Habitat destruction (deforestation, development…) & the resulting fragmentationdevelopment…) & the resulting fragmentation

– Invasive speciesInvasive species– Over-hunting / fishingOver-hunting / fishing– PollutionPollution– Etc.Etc.

NAST (2000), Our Changing Climate

(etc.)

Ecosystem Impacts, Ecosystem Impacts, GenerallyGenerally• Ecosystem impact predictions have Ecosystem impact predictions have

generally been too conservativegenerally been too conservative

• Most existing models are flawed:Most existing models are flawed:– (1) they aggregate ecosystems into coarse units, (1) they aggregate ecosystems into coarse units,

when species respond uniquely and locally;when species respond uniquely and locally;– (2) they usually only consider mean temperature (2) they usually only consider mean temperature

changes and ignore extreme conditions;changes and ignore extreme conditions;– (3) they ignore transient response (and thus (3) they ignore transient response (and thus

rates of change) and only indicate potential final rates of change) and only indicate potential final responses responses

van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006)

Ecosystem Impacts, Ecosystem Impacts, GenerallyGenerally• 15-40% species extinct with 2°C warming15-40% species extinct with 2°C warming• ““Hotspots” have the most to loseHotspots” have the most to lose

– 25 hotspots cover 1% of Earth’s landmass yet 25 hotspots cover 1% of Earth’s landmass yet account for 44% of plants and 35% of account for 44% of plants and 35% of animalsanimals

• 1/3 of amphibians in danger of extinction1/3 of amphibians in danger of extinction• Ecosystems can only adapt to a rate of Ecosystems can only adapt to a rate of

change of +0.5°C / decadechange of +0.5°C / decade

Warren, R. (2006)

Stern Review (2006), p. 79

“Diversity of Species Faces 'Catastrophe’…” (2006)

“Warming link to amphibian disease” (2006)

Ecosystem Impacts, Ecosystem Impacts, GenerallyGenerally• 80% of observed changes 80% of observed changes

in species distributions can in species distributions can be explained by climate be explained by climate changechange

• There is an increased risk There is an increased risk of of wildfire:wildfire: in Indonesia, in Indonesia, 810,000 Ha burned in the 810,000 Ha burned in the past decade, including past decade, including 100,000 Ha of Orangutan 100,000 Ha of Orangutan habitathabitat

van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orangutan

1 Ha = 2.47 ac

Ecosystem Impacts, Ecosystem Impacts, GenerallyGenerally• Observed changesObserved changes: According to two : According to two

meta-studies looking at hundreds of meta-studies looking at hundreds of other studies looking at up to 1,700 other studies looking at up to 1,700 species, “87% of shifts in phenology species, “87% of shifts in phenology and 81% of range shifts were in the and 81% of range shifts were in the direction expected from climate direction expected from climate change”, “i.e., towards higher latitudes change”, “i.e., towards higher latitudes or altitudes, or earlier spring events”or altitudes, or earlier spring events”

Lanchberry, J. (2006), p. 144

Ecosystem Impacts, Ecosystem Impacts, GenerallyGenerally• PhenologyPhenology “deals with the times of annual “deals with the times of annual

recurring natural events like flowering, leaf recurring natural events like flowering, leaf unfolding, fruit ripening, leaf coloring and fall, unfolding, fruit ripening, leaf coloring and fall, migration, and spawning” – and these patterns migration, and spawning” – and these patterns are changing [p. 136]are changing [p. 136]

• In the northern hemisphere, spring is coming up In the northern hemisphere, spring is coming up to 10 days sooner and fall ending a few days laterto 10 days sooner and fall ending a few days later

• Timing mismatches are occurring: for example Timing mismatches are occurring: for example some birds are laying eggs sooner but not as some birds are laying eggs sooner but not as soon as their primary food source, leading to soon as their primary food source, leading to increased infant mortalityincreased infant mortality

• Species have been migrating – on average – 6km Species have been migrating – on average – 6km poleward per decade over the last 40 yearspoleward per decade over the last 40 years

van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006)

Ecosystem Impacts, Ecosystem Impacts, GenerallyGenerally• Most importantly: ecosystems are affected Most importantly: ecosystems are affected

by by extremesextremes much more than they are by much more than they are by averages.averages.

• ““observed responses to observed changes observed responses to observed changes in weather patterns [...] seem to be in weather patterns [...] seem to be directly caused by directly caused by extremeextreme events, such events, such as as high temperatures early in the high temperatures early in the seasonseason, , warmer and wetter winterswarmer and wetter winters and and dry summersdry summers.” [p. 138].” [p. 138]

van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006)

Ecosystem Impacts, Ecosystem Impacts, GenerallyGenerally• At +1°C, 10% of global ecosystems At +1°C, 10% of global ecosystems

transformed, losing between 2-47% of extenttransformed, losing between 2-47% of extent

• At +2°C, 16% of global ecosystems At +2°C, 16% of global ecosystems transformed, losing between 5-66% of extenttransformed, losing between 5-66% of extent

• At +2-5°C, 50% probability of THC collapseAt +2-5°C, 50% probability of THC collapse

• At +3°C, 50% of nature reserves cannot fulfill At +3°C, 50% of nature reserves cannot fulfill their conservation objectivestheir conservation objectives

• At +3°C, 22% of global ecosystems At +3°C, 22% of global ecosystems transformed, losing between 7-74% extenttransformed, losing between 7-74% extent

• At +4°C, THC collapsesAt +4°C, THC collapsesWarren, R. (2006)

Climate, General TrendsClimate, General Trends

• The atmosphere has warmed by The atmosphere has warmed by 0.76°C since pre-industrial times0.76°C since pre-industrial times

• Warming has increased by an Warming has increased by an average rate of 0.13°C / decade for average rate of 0.13°C / decade for the past 50 yearsthe past 50 years

• Warming can be expected to Warming can be expected to increase by 0.2°C / decade over next increase by 0.2°C / decade over next two decadestwo decades

IPCC AR4 (2007)

Climate, General TrendsClimate, General Trends

Year IS92a A1Fl A2 A2c B1 B2

2020s 1.10 0.99 0.90 0.88 0.84 0.91

2050s 2.06 2.26 1.91 1.85 1.40 1.61

2080s 3.00 3.97 3.25 3.32 2.06 2.38

2090s  2.4-6.4

(4.0)2.0-5.4

(3.4)  1.1-2.9

(1.8)1.4-3.8

(2.4)

dT in °C from pre-industrial 2020s-2080s: Warren, R. (2006), p. 93

2090s: IPCC AR4 (2007), p. 11

Ecosystem Effects, Ecosystem Effects, GenerallyGenerally

National Geographic (Feb. 2007)

Warren, R. (2006), pp. 95-97

IPCC AR4 (2007)

•Mangroves in Asia could be lost at +2.4-2.8°C, as they cannot survive SLR of 45cm (SRES Scenarios A1T, A1B, and B2)

The Oceans: AcidifyingThe Oceans: Acidifying

• Typical ocean pH is 8.1, but this varies spatiallyTypical ocean pH is 8.1, but this varies spatially• Ocean pH has dropped (acidified) by 0.1 since Ocean pH has dropped (acidified) by 0.1 since

pre-industrial times, and is decreasing at a rate of pre-industrial times, and is decreasing at a rate of 0.015 / decade0.015 / decade

• If atmospheric COIf atmospheric CO22 concentration reaches concentration reaches 700ppm, ocean pH will decrease by 0.3; if it 700ppm, ocean pH will decrease by 0.3; if it reaches 1000ppm, 0.5reaches 1000ppm, 0.5

• ““These geochemical changes are highly These geochemical changes are highly predictable” [p. 65]predictable” [p. 65]

• CaCOCaCO33 + CO + CO22 + H + H22O <--> CaO <--> Ca2+2+ + CO + CO332-2- + CO + CO22 + +

HH22O <--> CaO <--> Ca2+2+ + 2HCO + 2HCO33--

Turley, C. (2006)

The Oceans: AcidifyingThe Oceans: Acidifying

Turley, C. (2006), p. 66

The Oceans: AcidifyingThe Oceans: Acidifying

Turley, C. (2006), p. 67

The Oceans: AcidifyingThe Oceans: Acidifying

• Unknown effects for most marine organismsUnknown effects for most marine organisms• Form of key macronutrients (phosphorus and Form of key macronutrients (phosphorus and

nitrogen) changed in acidic environment -> nitrogen) changed in acidic environment -> eutrophicationeutrophication

• Changed carbonate chemistry will affect calcifying Changed carbonate chemistry will affect calcifying organisms such as coccolithophores, pteropods, organisms such as coccolithophores, pteropods, gastropods, foraminifera and coralsgastropods, foraminifera and corals

• Coccolithophores play an important role in the Coccolithophores play an important role in the global carbon cycleglobal carbon cycle– Form blooms 100,000s kmForm blooms 100,000s km22

– Are a “major producer of dimethyl sulphide (DMS) which Are a “major producer of dimethyl sulphide (DMS) which may have a role in climate regulation via the production of may have a role in climate regulation via the production of cloud condensation nuclei” [p. 67]cloud condensation nuclei” [p. 67]

Turley, C. (2006)

Coccolithophore Coccolithophore MalformationsMalformations

Figs a-c: Under normal atmospheric CO2 concentration (~300 ppmv)

Figs d-e: Under enriched atmospheric CO2 (780-850 ppmv)Source: http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk/soes/staff/tt/eh/pics/ulf.jpg

PteropodsPteropods

Source:http://www.amonline.net.au/exhibitions/beyond/images

Pteropods are tiny, free-swimming marine snails which have developed two wing-like flaps in place of the large muscular foot of most snails.

GastropodsGastropods

Source: http://www.dnr.sc.gov/marine/sertc/images/ photo%20gallery/

ForaminiferaForaminifera

Source: http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/foram/foramshapessm.jpg

Foraminifera are a large group of amoeboid protists with fine strands of cytoplasm that branch and merge to form a dynamic net. They typically produce a shell, or test, which can have either one or multiple chambers, some becoming quite elaborate in structure.

The Oceans: Coral ReefsThe Oceans: Coral Reefs

• ““Rainforests of the oceans”, Rainforests of the oceans”, providing homes for 25-33% of all providing homes for 25-33% of all marine lifemarine life

• ““Coral calcification rates may Coral calcification rates may decrease by 21-40% over the decrease by 21-40% over the period 1880-2065 in response to period 1880-2065 in response to atmospheric COatmospheric CO22 changes” [p. changes” [p. 68]68]

• Recently discovered cold water Recently discovered cold water reefs may be even more sensitive reefs may be even more sensitive than their tropical cousinsthan their tropical cousins

• The Great Barrier Reef has The Great Barrier Reef has existed for 18 million years and existed for 18 million years and may die in our lifetimemay die in our lifetime

Turley, C. (2006)

“Climate Change Shattering Marine Food Chain” (2006)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrier_Reef

The Oceans: Coral ReefsThe Oceans: Coral Reefs

• At +1°C, 80% of coral reefs At +1°C, 80% of coral reefs will diewill die

• At +1.4°C, Indian Ocean At +1.4°C, Indian Ocean reefs cannot survivereefs cannot survive

• At +2°C, 97% of reefs will At +2°C, 97% of reefs will have died, with annual have died, with annual bleaching occurring at bleaching occurring at +2.3°C+2.3°C

• The importance of The importance of extremes:extremes: 16% of reefs 16% of reefs died in 1998 when died in 1998 when temperatures peaked at 1-temperatures peaked at 1-3°C above mean maximum3°C above mean maximum

• 20% of reefs have been lost 20% of reefs have been lost due to climate change, due to climate change, pollution, and bottom-pollution, and bottom-dredgingdredging

• Coral bleachingCoral bleaching is a vivid is a vivid sign of corals responding to sign of corals responding to stress, primarily increased stress, primarily increased water temperatures. water temperatures.

• Once bleaching begins, Once bleaching begins, corals tend to continue to corals tend to continue to bleach even if the stressor is bleach even if the stressor is removed. If the coral colony removed. If the coral colony survives, it often requires survives, it often requires weeks to months for the weeks to months for the remaining symbiont remaining symbiont population to reach a normal population to reach a normal density density

• Sometimes, but not always, Sometimes, but not always, a fatal eventa fatal event Warren, R. (2006)

Hare, B. (2006)

“Climate Change Shattering Marine Food Chain” (2006)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral_bleaching

The Oceans: Coral ReefsThe Oceans: Coral Reefs

ReefBase GISBleaching, disease, and spawning events

IPCC AR4 (2007), p. 18

The ArcticThe Arctic

• ““In the Arctic even a slight shift in temperature, In the Arctic even a slight shift in temperature, raising averages to above freezing, can bring about raising averages to above freezing, can bring about rapid and dramatic changes in rapid and dramatic changes in an ecosystem that an ecosystem that is defined by being frozenis defined by being frozen” [p. 215]” [p. 215]

• ““The effect of a 2°C global warming suggests […] The effect of a 2°C global warming suggests […] greater changes in terrestrial arctic ecosystems greater changes in terrestrial arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred since the during the 21st century than have occurred since the end of the last major glacial epoch” [p. 216]end of the last major glacial epoch” [p. 216]– Extinction of polar bear, seal, walrus, and the Inuit cultureExtinction of polar bear, seal, walrus, and the Inuit culture

• Rates of change in local temperature are 0.45-Rates of change in local temperature are 0.45-0.75°C / decade, possibly as high as 1.55°C / decade0.75°C / decade, possibly as high as 1.55°C / decade

• Changes in the Artic affect the planetary system, as Changes in the Artic affect the planetary system, as Arctic ice reflects a great deal of sunlightArctic ice reflects a great deal of sunlight

Folkestad, T. (2006)

The ArcticThe Arctic

• At +1°C, only 53% of tundra remains stableAt +1°C, only 53% of tundra remains stable• At +1.5°C, onset of melting in Greenland, At +1.5°C, onset of melting in Greenland,

leading to +0.75m SLR by 2100leading to +0.75m SLR by 2100• At +2°C, 42% of tundra remains stableAt +2°C, 42% of tundra remains stable• ““Arctic tundra is the main breeding habitat Arctic tundra is the main breeding habitat

for more than 20 million individual geese for more than 20 million individual geese and waders that over-winter in the mid-and waders that over-winter in the mid-latitudes of Europe, Asia, and North latitudes of Europe, Asia, and North America.” [p. 217]America.” [p. 217]– Some species of birds may lose up to 50% of Some species of birds may lose up to 50% of

their breeding habitat at +2°Ctheir breeding habitat at +2°C

Warren, R. (2006)

Folkestad, T. (2006)

The Arctic: Taiga and The Arctic: Taiga and TundraTundra

Folkestad, T. (2006), p. 217

The Arctic: TaigaThe Arctic: Taiga

Warren, R. (2006)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/

Taiga

•At +4°C, we can expect a 44% loss of the taiga and a 60% loss of the tundra

AntarcticaAntarctica

• Over the past 25 years, Over the past 25 years, some penguin populations some penguin populations have shrunk by 33 percent have shrunk by 33 percent in parts of Antarctica, due in parts of Antarctica, due to declines in winter sea-ice to declines in winter sea-ice habitat habitat

• At +2°C, key molluscs will At +2°C, key molluscs will die out, leading to severe die out, leading to severe ecosystem disruptionecosystem disruption

• At +4°C, we can expect an At +4°C, we can expect an 80% decline in krill, 80% decline in krill, severely affecting penguinsseverely affecting penguins

• At +2-4.5°C, potential At +2-4.5°C, potential triggering of WAIS collapse, triggering of WAIS collapse, leading to +0.75m SLR by leading to +0.75m SLR by 21002100

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penguin

AfricaAfrica

• At +1°C, significant loss of Karoo (S.A.), the At +1°C, significant loss of Karoo (S.A.), the richest floral area in the worldrichest floral area in the world

• At +2.5°C, 100% loss of Karoo and its 2,800 At +2.5°C, 100% loss of Karoo and its 2,800 endemic plantsendemic plants

• Loss of the Fynbos, along with 80% of the plants of Loss of the Fynbos, along with 80% of the plants of the Cape Floral Kingdom (S.A.), the smallest and the Cape Floral Kingdom (S.A.), the smallest and most biodiverse floral kingdom in the worldmost biodiverse floral kingdom in the world

• African Great Lakes wetland ecosystems collapseAfrican Great Lakes wetland ecosystems collapse• At +2-3°C, 5 S.A. parks lose >40% of their animalsAt +2-3°C, 5 S.A. parks lose >40% of their animals• At +3°C, Kruger National Park (S.A.) loses 2/3 of At +3°C, Kruger National Park (S.A.) loses 2/3 of

its speciesits speciesWarren, R. (2006)

Hare, B. (2006)

“Libya’s Thirst” (2006)

Africa: Karoo & FynbosAfrica: Karoo & Fynbos

http://www.tropical-island.de/CPT%20Little%20Karoo%20Oudtshoorn%20Cango%20Wildlife%20Ranch

%20Cheetahland%20lion%20b.jpg http://www.wildlifesafari.info/images/fynbos_habitat.jpg

King Protea, National Flower of S.A.

AmericasAmericas

• The Mountain Pine Beetle has expanded to The Mountain Pine Beetle has expanded to regions of Canada in British Columbia regions of Canada in British Columbia where previously it was “climatically where previously it was “climatically unsuitable” (killing 2m Ha of ponderosa)unsuitable” (killing 2m Ha of ponderosa)

• In the US, the milder winters are allowing In the US, the milder winters are allowing Pine Beetle populations to double yearly Pine Beetle populations to double yearly (for the past 6 years), such that it is (for the past 6 years), such that it is devastating pine forest in the western and devastating pine forest in the western and northwestern statesnorthwestern states

van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006), p. 137

1 Ha = 2.47 ac

AmericasAmericas

• At +1°C, glacier melt in Peru will cause At +1°C, glacier melt in Peru will cause “significant problems” [pp. 95-97]“significant problems” [pp. 95-97]

• At +2°C, potential At +2°C, potential environmental refugeesenvironmental refugees from Peru [pop: 28m] as glaciers meltfrom Peru [pop: 28m] as glaciers melt

• Impacts on salmonid fishImpacts on salmonid fish• At +2-3°C, maples threatened in N. AmericaAt +2-3°C, maples threatened in N. America• Conversion of Conversion of Amazon rainforestAmazon rainforest into into

savannah, “a potentially significant […] savannah, “a potentially significant […] change” [Halpin, p. 832]change” [Halpin, p. 832]

Warren, R. (2006)

Halpin, P.N. (1997)

Americas: USAAmericas: USA

NAST (2000), Our Changing Climate, p. 28

Americas: USAAmericas: USA

NAST (2000), Our Changing Climate, p. 29

•Note that these figures indicate where ecosystems would exist given the expected climate of the region, not where they will exist

AsiaAsia

• At +2°C, 50% loss of At +2°C, 50% loss of Chinese boreal forestsChinese boreal forests

• 50% loss of Sundarbans 50% loss of Sundarbans (wetlands and (wetlands and mangrove forest) in mangrove forest) in BangladeshBangladesh

• At +2.5°C, 100% loss of At +2.5°C, 100% loss of Chinese boreal forestsChinese boreal forests

• Mangroves might Mangroves might disappeardisappear

• Desertification and loss Desertification and loss of permafrost on of permafrost on Tibetan plateauTibetan plateau

There are approximately 700 Bengal Tigers in the Sundarbans

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sundarbans

Warren, R. (2007)

AustraliaAustralia

• At +1°C, extinctions in Dryandra forestAt +1°C, extinctions in Dryandra forest

• 50% loss of Queensland rainforest50% loss of Queensland rainforest

• At +2°C, 50% loss of Kakadu wetland At +2°C, 50% loss of Kakadu wetland in Australiain Australia

• At +2.5°C, total loss of KakaduAt +2.5°C, total loss of Kakadu

• At +3°C, 50% loss of eucalyptusAt +3°C, 50% loss of eucalyptus

• 80% loss of range of endemic butterfly80% loss of range of endemic butterfly

Warren, R. (2006)

Australia: Kakadu & Australia: Kakadu & ButterfliesButterflies

http://www.mark-ju.net/wildlife/thumbs/australia/butterfly01.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakadu

EuropeEurope

• Already losses of alpine floraAlready losses of alpine flora• ““Seabirds on the North Sea coast of Seabirds on the North Sea coast of

Britain suffered a large-scale Britain suffered a large-scale breeding failure in 2004”, due to a breeding failure in 2004”, due to a shortage of sandeels, which fed on shortage of sandeels, which fed on phytoplankton which shifted phytoplankton which shifted poleward thanks to a +1.05°C temp poleward thanks to a +1.05°C temp shift between 1977 & 2001 shift between 1977 & 2001 [Lanchbery, p. 145][Lanchbery, p. 145]

• At +3°C, alpine species near At +3°C, alpine species near extinctionextinction

• 60% species loss in Mediterranean, 60% species loss in Mediterranean, as well as high risk of fire and loss as well as high risk of fire and loss of migratory bird habitatof migratory bird habitat

• At +4°C, 38% of alpine species lose At +4°C, 38% of alpine species lose 90% of range90% of range

Lanchbery, J. (2006)

Warren, R. (2006)

North Sea

http://www.ikzm-d.de/abbildungen/53_NorthSeaMap.jpg

Burning Embers: A New Burning Embers: A New TargetTarget

van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006)

AdaptationsAdaptations• Adaptive ability depends on:Adaptive ability depends on:

– (1) rate of climate change;(1) rate of climate change;– (2) migratory potential of species;(2) migratory potential of species;– (3) competitive pressure between species;(3) competitive pressure between species;– (4) physical (human) obstacles in the way(4) physical (human) obstacles in the way

• The following are techniques that are considered The following are techniques that are considered to help:to help:– (1) connective corridors;(1) connective corridors;– (2) stepping-stone nature preserves;(2) stepping-stone nature preserves;– (3) protected-area buffer zones;(3) protected-area buffer zones;– (4) management planning at the regional ecosystem (4) management planning at the regional ecosystem

level.level.

• But Halpin notes that there has been little good But Halpin notes that there has been little good research on ecosystem adaptations, on which research on ecosystem adaptations, on which landscape elements should be protected and whylandscape elements should be protected and why

Halpin, P.N. (1997)

Adaptations & MitigationsAdaptations & Mitigations

• Some suggestions:Some suggestions:– Stop paving over Stop paving over

everythingeverything– Bulldoze suburban Bulldoze suburban

settlements near settlements near wetlands to allow wetlands to allow for their expansion for their expansion in response to SLR in response to SLR (bear in mind those (bear in mind those people will need to people will need to evacuate anyway)evacuate anyway)

• Extend the “right to Extend the “right to life” to all specieslife” to all species

• B1 Emissions ScenarioB1 Emissions Scenario::“The B1 storyline … describes a “The B1 storyline … describes a convergent world with [a] global convergent world with [a] global population that peaks in mid-population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic rapid change in economic structures toward a service and structures toward a service and information economy, with information economy, with reductions in material intensity reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and the introduction of clean and resource efficient and resource efficient technologies. The emphasis is technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, on global solutions to economic, social and environmental social and environmental sustainability, including sustainability, including improved equity, but without improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives”additional climate initiatives”

• How can we improve upon this?How can we improve upon this?• What are its flaws?What are its flaws?

IPCC AR4 (2007)

Climate, General TrendsClimate, General Trends

Year IS92a A1Fl A2 A2c B1 B2

2020s 1.10 0.99 0.90 0.88 0.84 0.91

2050s 2.06 2.26 1.91 1.85 1.40 1.61

2080s 3.00 3.97 3.25 3.32 2.06 2.38

2090s  2.4-6.4

(4.0)2.0-5.4

(3.4)  1.1-2.9

(1.8)1.4-3.8

(2.4)

dT in °C from pre-industrial 2020s-2080s: Warren, R. (2006), p. 93

2090s: IPCC AR4 (2007), p. 11

Reasons for HopeReasons for Hope

• The Permian-Triassic Extinction, which occurred The Permian-Triassic Extinction, which occurred about 251 mya, killed about 95% of all species.about 251 mya, killed about 95% of all species.– Recovery of “normal” levels of biodiversity took about 6 Recovery of “normal” levels of biodiversity took about 6

million years (of which most of that recovery occurred at million years (of which most of that recovery occurred at the tail end, in 500 thousand years)the tail end, in 500 thousand years)

– During that period, fungus is likely to have been the During that period, fungus is likely to have been the dominant form of life, representing nearly 100% of the dominant form of life, representing nearly 100% of the fossil recordfossil record

• In other words, as least we’re not as bad as a 15-In other words, as least we’re not as bad as a 15-20km wide comet or asteroid; and even if we 20km wide comet or asteroid; and even if we were, the Earth will only be covered by fungus for were, the Earth will only be covered by fungus for a mere 6 million yearsa mere 6 million years

Eshet, Y. et al. (1995) http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/planetearth/extinction_permian_000907.htmlhttp://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/planetearth/extinction_sidebar_000907.html

http://www.palaeos.com/Mesozoic/Triassic/Olenekian.html