econometrics and business forecasting_handouts_rudra
TRANSCRIPT
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Course Title Econometrics and Business Forecasting (EBF)
Course No BM61021
Discipline Management (Third Semester)
Coordinator Department Institute Email Phone
number
Rudra P. Pradhan
VGSOM
IIT
Kharagpur
03222-
282316
Availability Autumn Semester
Course Objective
The objective of this course is to present a comprehensive tools and techniques for managerial
decision making including problem of cost estimation, market size determination, sales
projection, inventory projection, production, marketing, stock price prediction, risk
management, revenue management, etc. The paper deals with econometric modelling and
business forecasting, which captures the behavior of variable through a structural model based
on theory. The tentative subject outline is described below.
Contents
What is Econometrics? Difference between Econometrics, Mathematics and Statistics, Basics of
Model Building, Basics of Business Forecasting, Forecasting Tools, Univariate Statistics,
Bivariate Statistics, Probability and Hypothesis Testing, Bivariate, Trivariate and Multivariate
Econometric Modelling, Multicolinearity, Serial Correlation, Heteroskedasticity, DG Test,
Dummy Variable Econometric Modelling, Panel Data Modelling, Lag Modelling, Factor
analysis, Structural Equation Modelling, Applications of Econometric Modelling with special
aspects of business forecasting like sales, cost, inventory, production, marketing, stock market,
risk management, revenue management, etc.
Course Prerequisites
Basic Statistics and Mathematics
Preferred Background
Engineering and Management graduate
Text/References
1. Gujarati, D. N., Basic Econometrics, McGraw Hill Publications. 2. Maddala, G. S., Introduction to Econometric Modelling, Wiley Publications. 3. Makridakis, S., Forecasting: Methods and Applications, Wiley Publications. 4. Wilson, J. H., Business Forecasting, McGraw Hill Publications. 5. Hair et al., Multivariate Data Analysis, Pearson Education.
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LECTURE PLAN
Module Learning Units Hours Per
Topic
Total
Hours
1) Introduction
1. What is Econometric Modelling
2
2
2. How is it different to Mathematics and Statistics
3. Importance and Scope
4. Linkage with Business Forecasting 5. Basic Forecasting Tools
2) Basic Statistical
Concept
6. Univariate and Bivariate Statistics
2
2 7. Probability and Hypothesis Testing
3) Foundation of
Econometric
Modelling and
Business Forecasting
8. Basics of Econometric Modelling 1
4
9. Bivariate Econometric Modelling 1
10. Trivariate Econometric Modelling 1
11. Multivariate Econometric Modelling 1
4) Assessing the
Assumptions of
Econometric
Modelling
12. Multicolinearity 1
4
13. Serial Correlation 1
14. Heteroskedasticity 1
15. DG Test 1
5) Extension of
Econometric
Modelling and
Business Forecasting
16. Dummy Variable Econometric Modelling 1
10
17. Panel Data Modelling 1
18. Factor Analysis 2
19. Structural Equation Modelling 2
20. Application of Econometric Models with special aspects of business forecasting
like sales, cost, inventory, production,
marketing, stock market, risk
management, revenue management, etc.
4
Total 22 22