Economic and Demographic Scan

Towns of Madison & Mayodan

November 15, 2012

Overview of discussion

• Growing a local economy• Town and County demographics• Basis economic descriptors• Sources of income in the County• Regional perspective• Challenges

– County?– Town?

Growing the local economy

• Depends on your mix of resources– Place-based resources; land, natural resources,

amenities

– Competent, educated workforce, and

– Access to capital for investment

– Access to technology

– Relationship with Mayodan

• What is M & M’s mix of resources?

Sustaining and Growing the Madison Economy

M & M Economy—retail trade, public

and private services, construction,

finance, manufacturing, etc.

Products and services for local area residents

Products and services for tourists

Products and services for local 2nd home and

retiree population

Manufactured products for export

Flow of products and services Flow of income

Export of labor (commuting out)

Import of goods, services and labor

Our key question—How can we grow the Local economy?

• Retain and grow existing businesses—How?• Improve local linkages—encourage more local buying

to reduce income leakage.• Encourage creation of new businesses through

entrepreneurship—more exports, less income leakage from buying imports.

• Increase commuting—to where?• Capture more unearned dollars—Can we attract

retirees?• Attract outside investment—Can we get someone to

build a new factory, regional hospital, state facility, etc.?

Table 1. Population change 2000-2010

  Population 2010 (ACS)

Population 2000 (Census)

% Change 2000 to 2010

Madison 2,506 2,262 10.8

Mayodan 2,506 2,417 3.7

Eden 15,602 14,511 7.5

Reidsville 15,900 14,485 9.8

Rockingham County 93,322 91,928 1.5%

.

Table 2. Age distribution, 2000 (Census) and 2010 (ACS annual surveys, 2006-2010).

Age Madison Mayodan Rockingham County

North Carolina

  2000 (%)

2010 (%)

2000 (%)

2010 (%)

2000 (%)

2010 (%)

2000 (%)

2010 (%)

Under 18 22.2 22.0 19.3 19.8 23.4 22.6 24.4 24.1

18 to 34 20.6 18.6 20.3 20.7 21.3 18.1 25.1 23.0

35 to 44 14.1 18.6 14.6 17.0 15.7 14.4 16.0 14.4

45 to 64 24.8 22.9 23.4 22.5 24.8 29.1 22.5 25.9

65 and over 18.3 18.0 22.4 20.0 14.8 15.8 12.0 12.6

Table 3. Population by race, 2010 (ACS annual surveys, 2006-2010).

  Madison

(%)

Mayodan

(%)

Rockingham County

(%)

North Carolina

(%)

White alone 67.4 86.8 75.8 69.6Black or African American Alone

25.5* 10.1* 19.1 21.4

Other, including two or more races

7.1* 3.1* 5.1 9.0

Hispanic or Latino (of any race)

3.9* 3.7* 5.1 7.8

Table 4. Educational attainment of population age 25 years or older, 2010 (5 year ACS average).

  Madison* (%)

Mayodan* (%)

Rockingham County (%)

North Carolina (%)

No high school degree

22.7 27.3 23.4 16.4

High school degree or more

77.3 72.7 76.6 83.6

Associates degree 6.7 6.3 7.0 8.3

Bachelor’s degree or higher

18.2 11.5 12.5 26.1

Table 5. Distribution by counties where Madison and Mayodan Resident Workers are employed and where those working in Madison and Mayodan Reside- Primary Jobs, 2010. (Top 10 counties). (Source: US Census)

  % of Madison Resident Workers by Work Location

% of Mayodan resident workers by work location

% of workers employed in Madison by place of residence

% of workers employed in Mayodan by place of residence

All Counties (Number of employees)=100%

974(100%)

1,032(100%)

2,234(100%)

780(100%)

Rockingham 33.3 37.6 50.0 49.6

Guilford 28.4 27.0 8.4 7.6

Wake 6.4 6.9 1.2 1.5

Forsyth 5.4 3.3 3.9 2.9

Stokes 3.2 3.5 11.4 7.9

Mecklenburg 3.0 2.0 --- 1.9

Orange 2.4 2.0 --- ---

Alamance 2.3 2.0 --- 1.3

Durham 2.1 1.6 --- ---

Transylvania 1.4 1.5 --- ---

Yadkin --- --- 3.4 ---

Wilkes --- --- 1.5 ---

Henry County, VA --- --- 1.4 2.9

Caswell --- --- 1.2 ---

Surry --- --- 1.1 ---

Randolph --- --- --- 1.8

Harnett --- --- --- 1.4

All other locations 12.2 12.6 16.7 21.0

.

Table 6 Income averages (ACS 5-year averages, 2010).

Income (2010 $s)

Madison Mayodan Rockingham County

North Carolina

U. S.

Per capita income

$20,818 $18,711 $20,801 $24,745 $27,334

Median Household Income

$40,026 $28,442* $39,231 $45,570 $51,914

Per Capita Personal Income estimates for 2010 (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

• PCPI estimates for 2010:– Rockingham County $29,920

– North Carolina $35,007

– US $39,937.

• The Rockingham County estimate is 85% of the state average and the county ranked 49th

out of the 100 counties in NC.

Table 7. Percentage distribution of income by major source, 2001 and 2010 in 2010 dollars. (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Income component

Rockingham County Guilford County North Carolina

  2001 2010 2001 2010 2001 2010Total Personal income (($000)

$2,664,676

$2,801,270 $16,955,934 $17,994,478 $286,381,928 $332,155,695

Farm income 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.8%

Earnings by place of work

58.9% 47.4% 94.9% 87.4% 77.5% 72.6%

Net earnings by place of residence*

63.7% 56.2 69.7% 64.1% 68.5% 63.9%

Dividends, interest and rent

15.2% 13.8% 18.4% 16.9% 17.2% 15.6%

Personal transfer payments

21.0% 30.0% 11.9% 19.0% 14.3% 20.5%

Proprietors’ income

6.3% 4.0% 9.9% 7.4% 9.0% 7.1%

Nonfarm proprietors’ income

5.5% 3.7% 9.7% 7.4% 7.9% 6.5%

Table 8. Residence adjustment, gross flow of earnings in 2010 dollars.

County 2001 residence adjustment (000 of 2010 dollars)

2010 residence adjustment (000 of 2010 dollars)

Rockingham $317,270 $419,191

Guilford -$2,463,977 -$2,358,873

Forsyth -$1,533,348 -$1,831,201

Alamance $153,076 $227,492

Table 9. Full-time and part-time employment in selected industries, Rockingham County, Guilford County and North Carolina

NAICS Industry Rockingham County Guilford County North Carolina

  2001 (%) 2010 (%) 2001 (%) 2010 (%) 2001 (%) 2010 (%)

Total full- and part-time employment

42,004 (100%)

36,981 (100%)

325,721 (100%)

328,919 (100%)

4,840,564 (100%)

5,201,605 (100%)

Construction 7.5 5.8 5.6 4.3 7.1 5.8

Manufacturing 28.6 16.5 14.7 9.7 14.8 8.7

Wholesale trade 2.0 4.0 5.7 5.5 3.6 3.5

Retail trade 11.6 13.2 11.0 10.0 11.1 10.2

Transportation and warehousing 3.5 2.0 5.4 4.7 3.1 2.6

Finance and insurance 2.0 2.7 5.0 6.7 3.7 4.6

Real estate and rental and leasing 1.8 2.9 2.8 3.5 3.0 4.1

Professional and technical services 2.0 2.7 5.3 5.5 4.7 5.6

Administrative and waste services 3.7 7.7 7.3 8.5 5.6 6.5

Health care and social assistance --- 10.4 8.5 10.8 7.9 10.1

Accommodation and food services 5.0 6.4 6.1 6.8 6.1 6.9

Other services, except public administration

5.7 6.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.5

Government 11.8 12.9 9.7 10.6 15.4 16.6

Table 10. Taxable Retail Sales.

  Taxable retail sales in 2011-12

2011-12 Taxable retail sales per capita (2010 population estimate State Data Center)

2011-12 Taxable retail sales as a percent of 2010 personal income

North Carolina $102,830,051,937 $10,727 30.7

Alamance County $1,651,538,169 $10,884 35.5

Forsyth County $4,119,672,960 $11,710 31.6

Guilford County $5,639,379,892 $11,361 31.3

Rockingham County $581,701,778 $6,204 20.8

What does all this mean for M & M?

• Impact of rural location not near urban centers?

• Is your goal growth or prosperity and is there a difference?

• What strategies are most likely to be successful?

• Resource constraints?

• What needs “fixing”?

• What are our key assets?

Remember our key question—How can we grow the M & M economy?

• Retain and grow existing businesses—How?• Improve local linkages—encourage more local buying

to reduce income leakage.• Encourage creation of new businesses through

entrepreneurship—more exports, less income leakage from buying imports.

• Increase commuting—Where?• Capture more unearned dollars—Can we attract retirees,

especially military retirees? • Attract outside investment—Can we get someone to

build a new factory, regional hospital, state facility, etc. in town or nearby?

• Prosperity without growth?

Next Steps

• Look at potential growth paths

• Brainstorm assets and limiting factors related to each potential growth path

• Visualize Madison/Mayodan in 2020