economic and housing market outlook

8/9/2019 Economic and Housing Market Outlook

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Economic and Housing MarkOutlook

By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.

Chief Economist

National Association of REALTOR!

"ay #$, %'

(ashin)ton, D.C.


2/56

How’s the Market?


3/56

Annual Home Sales

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Monthly Pending Sales Ind(Seasonally Adusted!

&.&

'.&

#&&.&

#&'.&

##&.&

##'.& Up 1% from 1 mon

Up 11% from 1 yea

ource0 NAR


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Median Home Price A""reciat(# change $rom one year ago!

1$1%&%$+-

#&#%#$

#+


6/56

Hitting A%orda&ility

&

'&

#&&

#'&

%&&

%'&


7/56

n'en ory o omes Sale

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8/56

)egional *ariationPending Sales +hange $rom One ,ear

1%&

1#'

1#&

1'

&

'

#&

#'%&

%'

Northeast "i2west outh (est


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10/56

uture Housing -eman


11/56

Huge Pent ." -emand.nder"er$orming Home Sales in )elation to Po"

/000 /012

E/istin) 3ome ales '.% m $. m

New 3ome ales --& 4 $$& 4

"ort)a)e Rates -.&5 $.%5

Payroll 6o7s #*% m #* m

Po8ulation %-% m *# m

* million more 8eo8le li9in) in the countr

3 &


12/56

3o&s(4 million lost 5 1/ million gained

#%&,&&&

#%',&&&

#*&,&&&

#*',&&&

#$&,&&&

#$',&&&In thousands


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o" an o om a es


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o" an o om a es 3o&s

6he 7est # 8ain in 1/

months:tah $.&5

;lori2a *.-5

Ore)on *.$5

(ashin)ton *.$5

California *.%5

2aho %.5

6he 9orst # 8ai

mont(est ?ir)inia 1&.5

"ississi88i &.'5

"aine &.'5

"ontana &.+5

Alas=a &.+5


15/56

3o&s in -en'er Metro

#&&&#&'&

##&&##'&#%&&#%'&#*&&#*'&

#$&&>n thousan2s


16/56

uture Housing Su""ly

Housing Starts )ising 6


17/56

Housing Starts )ising 5 6Slowly

&

'&&

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%&&&%'&&

*&&&Thousand units

- M t H i P


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-en'er Metro Housing Perm(year:to:date!

&

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19/56

-istressed Pro"erty Sales


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-istressed Pro"erty Sales(# o$ total sales!

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%&

*&

$&

'&

+&


21/56

Shadow In'entory in A= and

&%$+-

#&#%#$

# o$ mortgages in $oreclosure "rocess or seriously d

omeowner ay ng


22/56

omeowner ay ng onger

%&%&&*%&&$%&&'%&&+%&&%&&-%&&%&%#%%&

%

$

+

-

#&

#%Median ,ears o$ 6enure 7e$ore Mo'in

-uke 7asket&all


23/56

-uke 7asket&all6icket Price?


24/56


25/56

Mortgage )ates )iseBHow Much and How Soon?

)eser'e


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)eser'e(ero rate "olicy 5 Cth and

year!

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#

%

*

$

'

+

;e2 ;un2s5

0 M t ) t


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0:year Mortgage )at

&#%*$'+-

> +PI I F ti ,


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>o +PI InFation @ ,e

1*

1%

1#

&

#

%

*

$

'

+

Oil P i


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Oil Price

&%&

$&+&-&

#&&#%&#$&

#+&

u"" y an eman B


30/56

u"" y an eman B .;S;

%#

'

) t )i i t C hi


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)ents )ising at C:year hig

1#&

#

%

*

$

'

)entersG )ent

)ental *acancy )ate


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)ental *acancy )ate(+ensus Measurement!

'

+-

#&##

#%

Monetary Policy


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Monetary Policy

•

@uantitati9e Easin) ;inishe2

• ;e2 ;un2s Rate hi=e e8tem7

%'

• "ort)a)e Rates reachin) +5 7y

+redit 7ox O"ens?


34/56

+redit 7ox O"ens?

• ;>CO New "etho2

• ;annie;re22ie – Lower 2own 8ayment 8ro2ucts

• ;3A 8remiums lowere2

• Portfolio Len2in) historic low mo2efault rates on recent 9inta)es %&%$


35/56

American Ine


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"$rom 10

+*+$

+'

++

+

+-+

&

Lowest in 25 y

)enters


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(4 million more households!

*&

*%

*$

*+

*-

$&$%

$$

Homeowners


38/56

(/; million $ewer households!

$.&

$.'

'.&

'.'

+.&+.'

.&

Home Price Index


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-allas and Phoenix

#&&

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%&&

%'&

*&&

*'&

All:+ash Sales


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(# o$ total sales!

&

'#&#'%&%'*&*'

$&

)eal Estate Asset and


41/56

Mortgage

&

'&&&

#&&&&

#'&&&

%&&&&

%'&&&$ billion

Household >et 9orth


42/56

(JK00 's; J1K00!

Renter 3omeow&

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#- %& %&&$ %&& %& %*

x31 x2L

xL

x2L

Homeowner net worthranges from 31 to 46times that of renters

ource0 ;e2eral Reser9e ur9ey of Consumer ;inances


43/56

Household >et 9orth at A


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6ime High

$&&&&

$'&&&'&&&&''&&&+&&&&+'&&&&&&&'&&&

-&&&&-'&&&

$ billion

*acation Home Sale


45/56

*acation Home Sale

1

%&&

$&&

+&&

-&&#,&&&

#,%&&

In thousans

Metro Market Exam"le


46/56

Metro Market Exam"le

Metro +hange inOwnershi"

+hange inHousing9ealthIne


47/56

Social 7eneDts o$ Homeowne

• 3i)her tu2ent Test cores

• 3i)her


48/56

Homeownershi" 5 7ut )isiHomeowners

• Li=ely to Decline to +%5 7y %+ 7efore risin)

• 3omeowners will no lon)er fall, 7u

• Renters will also rise

• '&1'& s8lit in new househol2s

• But much faster househol2 format

Household 8rowth )eady to


49/56

Household 8rowth )eady to

&.&

&.'

#.&

#.'

%.&

3ousehol2 Po8ulation

% growth from one year ago

!rom 2""1 to 2""6# i of &enters!rom 2""(# )rowth only from &ent


50/56

7altimore and orecast

7altimore Metro @ +ity and Su&ur(6otal 3o&s in thousands!


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(6otal 3o&s in thousands!

&&

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##&&

#%&&#*&&

#$&&

7altimore +ity(6otal 3o&s in thousands!


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(6otal 3o&s in thousands!

*&&

*'&

$&&

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>ew +ool Nids?


53/56

e +oo ds

Rolan2 ;ryer

%' 6ohn Bates Clar= Awar2

Method to ind Agent?Adults riends are Im"ortant


54/56

Adults riends are Im"ortant

Past Relationshi8H %%5

Referral from ;rien2H $5

Personal Contact "eetin)O8en 3ouse"ailerH #$5

>nternetH $5

OtherH #*5

Economic orecast


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/01 /012 /01

orecast


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g/01 /012 /01

orecast

3ousin) tarts %',&&& #,&,&&& #.# million

New 3ome ales $*&,&&& $*,&&& '&,&&&

E/istin) 3omeales

'.# million $. million '.* million

"e2ian Price

economic and housing market outlook

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