economic costs of terrorists attacks new era associates, l.l.c

ECONOMIC COSTS OF TERRORISTS ATTACKS

New Era Associates, L.L.C.

“ It is very important to concentrate on hitting the U.S. economy through all possible means.”

- Osama Bin Laden

Economic ImpactEconomic Impact$55 Billion = Drop in European Markets

following the Madrid bombings

$83 Billion = Cost of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center (Represents direct & indirect costs)

$1 Trillion = Estimated Cost on the Global supply chain should a WMD be successfully detonated via a container

$55 Billion = Drop in European Markets following the Madrid bombings

$83 Billion = Cost of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center (Represents direct & indirect costs)

$1 Trillion = Estimated Cost on the Global supply chain should a WMD be successfully detonated via a container

GLOBAL TRADE (GDP)GLOBAL TRADE (GDP)Country 2000 2025

United States $9.82 Trillion $18.3 Trillion

Brazil $762 Billion $1.69 Trillion

United Kingdom $1.44 Trillion $2.46 Trillion

France $1.31 Trillion $2.09 Trillion

Germany $1.87 Trillion $2.60 Trillion

Italy $1.08 Trillion $1.62 Trillion

Russia $391 Billion $2.26 Trillion

India $469 Billion $3.17 Trillion

China $1.07 Trillion $10.2 Trillion

Japan $4.18 Trillion $5.57 Trillion

MEDIAN INCREASE SPENDING FOR SECURITY

MEDIAN INCREASE SPENDING FOR SECURITY

Mean increase on security in 2002 was only 4%Permanent increases in security in 2002 by industry:

71% - Energy & utilities 62% - Financial Services 47% - Technology 46% - Healthcare 42% - Retail/Wholesale Trade 38% - Manufacturing

Mean increase on security in 2002 was only 4%Permanent increases in security in 2002 by industry:

71% - Energy & utilities 62% - Financial Services 47% - Technology 46% - Healthcare 42% - Retail/Wholesale Trade 38% - Manufacturing

THE NEW PARADIGM:INTERCONNECTEDNESS


A breech at any point along the system compromises the entire system.

Security no longer a commercial risk, but rather a systematic risk.

A breech at any point along the system compromises the entire system.

Security no longer a commercial risk, but rather a systematic risk.



For small and medium size firms, security is either the cost of doing business OR doing no business.

Security in post 9/11 era is an investment, not a cost center

For small and medium size firms, security is either the cost of doing business OR doing no business.

Security in post 9/11 era is an investment, not a cost center

“The economic bleeding in continuing to date, but it requires further strikes. The key pillars of the U.S. economy should be struck, GOD willing.The enemy can be defeated by attacking his economic centers.”

- Osama Bin Laden

12/27/01

A shift in TargetsA shift in Targets

Hard Targets Soft Targets

Multinational firms Small & Medium sized enterprises

United States & Western Europe

Asia and Middle East

Diplomatic Embassies Hotels, shopping centers, leisure, and residential facilities

Military Bases Defense contractors

Five Suggested AttacksFive Suggested Attacks

A cargo container assault mission aimed at a US choke point at Seattle/Tacoma, Los Angeles/Long Beach, or NY/NJ. In addition disrupting trade, such an attack would strike at the heart of communication, transportation and human traffic flows.

A cargo container assault mission aimed at a US choke point at Seattle/Tacoma, Los Angeles/Long Beach, or NY/NJ. In addition disrupting trade, such an attack would strike at the heart of communication, transportation and human traffic flows.

Five Suggested AttacksFive Suggested AttacksAn incident directed at a petroleum port facility with Houston, Baton Rouge or Philadelphia the most likely targets. This would take advantage of the fragility of the system’s dependence on oil and act as a symbolic message to underscore the exploitation of the Arab world by the West.

An incident directed at a petroleum port facility with Houston, Baton Rouge or Philadelphia the most likely targets. This would take advantage of the fragility of the system’s dependence on oil and act as a symbolic message to underscore the exploitation of the Arab world by the West.


Florida ports of Miami and Fort Lauderdale are hit simultaneously. Followed by a biochemical assault on Disney World.

The use of bio chemicals has biblical themes (pestilence, plague)

Force the state to declare Federal bankruptcy (45-60 day period).

A “Personal” attack on Bush family.

Florida ports of Miami and Fort Lauderdale are hit simultaneously. Followed by a biochemical assault on Disney World.

The use of bio chemicals has biblical themes (pestilence, plague)

Force the state to declare Federal bankruptcy (45-60 day period).

A “Personal” attack on Bush family.


An attack on the Malacca Straits in order to create a crippling bottleneck to trade between Asia and Europe. Such a disruption would also bring to a virtual halt Middle-East oil exports to Asia.

An attack on the Malacca Straits in order to create a crippling bottleneck to trade between Asia and Europe. Such a disruption would also bring to a virtual halt Middle-East oil exports to Asia.

Five Suggested AttacksFive Suggested AttacksThe disruption of the US-Sino trade pact

bringing the global economy to a halt.

As defenses around strategic locations in the United States hardened, terrorists redirect efforts at China were security precautions are be more lax.

This would be retaliation for China’s history of policies unfavorable toward Islamic groups and Moslem populations.

The disruption of the US-Sino trade pact bringing the global economy to a halt.

As defenses around strategic locations in the United States hardened, terrorists redirect efforts at China were security precautions are be more lax.

This would be retaliation for China’s history of policies unfavorable toward Islamic groups and Moslem populations.

Impact to Global Supply Chain

Impact to Global Supply Chain

Off-shore outsourcing becomes a security issue as factors such as diverse standards, security lapses, background checks and partnerships/coordination with the local infrastructure open the system to vulnerability

Off-shore outsourcing becomes a security issue as factors such as diverse standards, security lapses, background checks and partnerships/coordination with the local infrastructure open the system to vulnerability

Impact of Supply chain attack

Impact of Supply chain attack

Small-medium sized business impact

Time to bankruptcy?Legal issues: “fiduciary

responsibilities”Ect.Ect.What to do?

Small-medium sized business impact

Time to bankruptcy?Legal issues: “fiduciary

responsibilities”Ect.Ect.What to do?

Next Steps for your business

Next Steps for your business

Threat assessment: “ Is it real?”Risk analysis: “Where am I

exposed?”Implementation: Who,What,Where?Documentation: Cover the legal

basesGovernment recommendations

Threat assessment: “ Is it real?”Risk analysis: “Where am I

exposed?”Implementation: Who,What,Where?Documentation: Cover the legal

basesGovernment recommendations

“ We will continue to fight you as long as we have weapons in our hands.”

- Osama Bin Laden

10/18/03

economic costs of terrorists attacks new era associates, l.l.c

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