Economic, Demographic and Technological Change

James W. Hughes, Dean2014

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Business Cycle Phases

Expansion: November 2001 - December 2007

(Great)Recession: December 2007 - June 2009:

18 months in length

Current Expansion: June 2009 – September 2014:

63 months in length

Average Duration of Post-WW II Expansions: 58 months

U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change2009-2013

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6,000,000

-5,000,000

-4,000,000

-3,000,000

-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

-5,013,000

1,277,000

2,400,0002,294,000

2,368,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.

U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change2009-2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

-6,000,000

-5,000,000

-4,000,000

-3,000,000

-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

-5,013,000

1,277,000

2,400,0002,294,000 2,365,000 2,520,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. * Based on first 8 months ( December 2013 – August 2014).Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.

New Jersey Private-Sector Employment Change2009 - 2012

2009 2010 2011 2012

-160,000

-120,000

-80,000

-40,000

0

40,000

80,000

-114,400

8,200

28,80045,400

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (*) Estimate based on data through June 2013.

New Jersey Private-Sector Employment Change2009 - 2013

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-160,000

-120,000

-80,000

-40,000

0

40,000

80,000

-114,400

8,200

28,80045,400

62,800*

2013: Private-Sector Employment

2013: First 6 Months +31,400 jobs

2013: Last 6 Months -11,600 jobs

2013: Full Year +19,800 jobs

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.

New Jersey Private-Sector Employment Change2009 - 2013

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-160,000

-120,000

-80,000

-40,000

0

40,000

80,000

-114,400

8,200

28,80045,400

19,800

2013: Private-Sector Employment

2013: First 6 Months +31,400 jobs

2013: Last 6 Months -11,600 jobs

2013: Full Year +19,800 jobs

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

17,200

14,200

5,600

-17,200

600

18,500

New Jersey Private Sector Employment ChangeQ1 2013 – Q2 2014

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster(Employment change for periods indicated)

1981-1982 1982-1989 1989-1992 1992-2000 2000-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010 2010-present

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

(24,800)

622,400

(260,100)

578,500

(61,100)

128,700

(256,600)

110,200

Num

ber

of J

obs

7 Months

83 Months

37 Months

104 Months

19 Months

66 Months

32 Months

Recessions: September 1981 - April 1982; March 1989 – April 1992; December 2000 – July 2002; January 2008 – September 2010Expansions: April 1982 - March 1989; April1992 - December 2000; July 2002 – January 2008; September 2010 – June 2014

45 Months

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

Obsolete Industrial Plant

The Great 1980s Office Building Boom

Suburban Office Agglomeration

Information Technology ErasPre- and Early-PC

1981 IBM PC Introduced 8088 microprocessor chip

1983 IBM XT

1984 IBM AT 80286 microprocessor chip

1986 80386 microprocessor chip

1989 80486

1993 Pentium 80586

PC Intense – Fiber Optic

1995 Window to the Internet

Mobile Internet – Untethered

2007 iPhone

2008 Affordable Powerful Notebooks

2010 iPad

2011-2012

Widespread availability of 4G LTE

386 Microprocessor

Information Technology ErasPre- and Early-PC

1981 IBM PC Introduced 8088 microprocessor chip

1983 IBM XT

1984 IBM AT 80286 microprocessor chip

1986 80386 microprocessor chip

1989 80486

1993 Pentium 80586

PC Intense – Fiber Optic

1995 Window to the Internet

Mobile Internet – Untethered

2007 iPhone

2008 Affordable Powerful Notebooks

2010 iPad

2011-2012

Widespread availability of 4G LTE

Information Technology ErasPre- and Early-PC

1981 IBM PC Introduced 8088 microprocessor chip

1983 IBM XT

1984 IBM AT 80286 microprocessor chip

1986 80386 microprocessor chip

1989 80486

1993 Pentium 80586

PC Intense – Fiber Optic

1995 Window to the Internet

Mobile Internet – Untethered

2007 iPhone

2008 Affordable Powerful Notebooks

2010 iPad

2011-2012

Widespread availability of 4G LTE

• Maturing Baby Boom – Redefining Maturity

• Echo-Boomers/Gen Y/Millennials – Redefining the Workforce/Workplace

AT

The Postwar Baby Boom: 1946-1964

The Largest Generation in U.S. History

Tract-House Suburban New Jerseye Suburban

N.J.

• Source: The New York Times

McMansion

Serious Serious Middle-Aging

BABY BOOM: REINVENTING MATURITYaby Boom Reinventing Maturity

• 2011: First Boomer turned 65 years of age

• 2014: All Boomers between 50 and 68 years of age

• 2015: Fully one-half of all Boomers will be in their 60s

• 2016: First Boomers will turn 70 years of age

We will not fade away quietly!

Source: Christian Science Monitor

The The Eventual Slowdown Slowdown

Baby Boomer in Retirementn Retirement

Beach Boys: Little Deuce Coupe

The Invasion of the Stroller People

Echo Boom: 1977-1995oom: 1977-1995

Generation “Y” Today

The Digerati

Girl-Boy Brooklyn Hipsters

1970s George and Albany Streets

2000s: George and Albany

1970s: MP 54 Electric MU Cars Electric MU Cars

1970s: Interior Seating

No Cellphones or Tablets – Just Print

2000s: NJ Transit Bi-Level Cars

2000s: Interior Seating

Prototypical 1970s Subway Car

1970s Interior

New 2000s Subway Fleet

Interior

1970s:11970s Destination: Times Square Seedy Times Square

2000s Times Square

Merck Headquarters in Whitehouse Station: Stranded Asset in Whitehouse Station

BASF in BASF – Mount Olive – Stranded Asset 2ve

Source: Bing Maps 2011.

Aetna Construction Completed 1983

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