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UCR Center for Economic Forecasting and Development | ucreconomicforecast.org
Adam J. FowlerDirector of ResearchUCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and DevelopmentBeacon Economics LLC
July 2020
Economic Development in the Age of COVID-19
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Resilience Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges
Economy on Ice Reopening The Virus Economy Post Virus Economy
Short and Medium Term Challenges
Long Term Challenges
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Resilience Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges
–Robert Emerson Lucas Jr.Nobel Laureate, Economics
We think of economic growth and economic development as distinct fields, with economic growth defined as those aspects we have some understanding of, and economic development defined as those we don’t.
This is what we need a theory of economic development for: to provide some kind of framework for organizing facts, for judging which represent opportunities and which necessities.
But the term is used in so many different ways, even within economics, that if I do not clarify what I mean by it early on, the gap between what I think I am saying and what you think you are hearing will grow too wide for us to have a serious discussion.
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Resilience Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges
Defining, Operationalizing, and Measuring Success
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Resilience Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges
Human Physical Organizational
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UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Resilience Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
Select Components
TALENT DEVELOPMENT
SKILLSETS
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
TRANSPORTATION ASSETS
SMALL AND MICRO BUSINESS
YOUNG BUSINESS
COMMUNITY COLLEGE
WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION
BROADBAND ACCESS
CULTURAL ASSETS
HIGHER EDUCATION
K-12 EDUCATION
BUSINESS FORMATION
DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE
HumanEconomic development requires nurturing and deploying people in ways that maximize their productive potential.
PhysicalEconomic development requires long-term investments in infrastructure to address the fundamental conditions necessary for economic growth.
OrganizationalPublic and private sector enterprises must coordinate to invest in and facilitate the generation of new ideas and knowledge transfer.
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UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Resilience Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges
Opportunities and Challenges Short to Medium Term Long Term
WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION
Components
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
SMALL AND MICRO BUSINESS
BENEFIT SUPPORT
PLACEMENT SERVICES
COUNSELING
LEASE SUPPORT
TEMPORARY PERMITTING
GRANT SUPPORT
EDUCATION
ACCESS TO CAPITAL
CAREER PATHWAYS
SKILLS TRAINING
FLEXIBLE ZONING
ADAPTIVE REUSE
VALUE CAPTURE
SPACE
LICENSING EASE
NETWORK
Relief and Recovery Resilience
HumanEconomic development requires nurturing and deploying people in ways that maximize their productive potential.
PhysicalEconomic development requires long-term investments in infrastructure to address the fundamental conditions necessary for economic growth.
OrganizationalPublic and private sector enterprises must coordinate to invest in and facilitate the generation of new ideas and knowledge transfer.
+
+
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UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Resilience Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges
Opportunities and Challenges Short to Medium Term Long Term
WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION
Components
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
SMALL AND MICRO BUSINESS
BENEFIT SUPPORT
PLACEMENT SERVICES
COUNSELING
LEASE SUPPORT
TEMPORARY PERMITTING
GRANT SUPPORT
EDUCATION
ACCESS TO CAPITAL
CAREER PATHWAYS
SKILLS TRAINING
FLEXIBLE ZONING
ADAPTIVE REUSE
VALUE CAPTURE
SPACE
LICENSING EASE
NETWORK
Relief and Recovery Resilience
HumanEconomic development requires nurturing and deploying people in ways that maximize their productive potential.
PhysicalEconomic development requires long-term investments in infrastructure to address the fundamental conditions necessary for economic growth.
OrganizationalPublic and private sector enterprises must coordinate to invest in and facilitate the generation of new ideas and knowledge transfer.
+
+
+
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
Short to Medium Term
Relief and Recovery
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Resilience Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges
Opportunities and Challenges Short to Medium Term Long Term
WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION
Components
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
SMALL AND MICRO BUSINESS
BENEFIT SUPPORT
PLACEMENT SERVICES
COUNSELING
LEASE SUPPORT
TEMPORARY PERMITTING
GRANT SUPPORT
EDUCATION
ACCESS TO CAPITAL
CAREER PATHWAYS
SKILLS TRAINING
FLEXIBLE ZONING
ADAPTIVE REUSE
VALUE CAPTURE
SPACE
LICENSING EASE
NETWORK
Relief and Recovery Resilience
HumanEconomic development requires nurturing and deploying people in ways that maximize their productive potential.
PhysicalEconomic development requires long-term investments in infrastructure to address the fundamental conditions necessary for economic growth.
OrganizationalPublic and private sector enterprises must coordinate to invest in and facilitate the generation of new ideas and knowledge transfer.
+
+
+
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
Short to Medium Term
Relief and Recovery
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
US Renter HHs CA Renter HHs CA Owner HHs CA Renter HHs<$50k
CA Renter HHs$50-$100k
CA Renter HHs>$100k
Perc
enta
ge
Percentage of Households with More than 1.0 Person per Room, 2018
1.01–1.50 Persons/Room More than 1.50 Persons/Room
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
Short to Medium Term
Relief and Recovery
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Hispanic NH Other NH Black NH White
Perc
enta
ge
Overcrowded Renter HHs
1.01–1.50 Persons/Room
More than 1.50 Persons/Room
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Resilience Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges
Opportunities and Challenges Short to Medium Term Long Term
WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION
Components
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
SMALL AND MICRO BUSINESS
BENEFIT SUPPORT
PLACEMENT SERVICES
COUNSELING
LEASE SUPPORT
TEMPORARY PERMITTING
GRANT SUPPORT
EDUCATION
ACCESS TO CAPITAL
CAREER PATHWAYS
SKILLS TRAINING
FLEXIBLE ZONING
ADAPTIVE REUSE
VALUE CAPTURE
SPACE
LICENSING EASE
NETWORK
Relief and Recovery Resilience
HumanEconomic development requires nurturing and deploying people in ways that maximize their productive potential.
PhysicalEconomic development requires long-term investments in infrastructure to address the fundamental conditions necessary for economic growth.
OrganizationalPublic and private sector enterprises must coordinate to invest in and facilitate the generation of new ideas and knowledge transfer.
+
+
+
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
Short to Medium Term
Relief and Recovery
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
Short to Medium Term
Relief and Recovery
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Resilience Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges
Opportunities and Challenges Short to Medium Term Long Term
WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION
Components
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
SMALL AND MICRO BUSINESS
BENEFIT SUPPORT
PLACEMENT SERVICES
COUNSELING
LEASE SUPPORT
TEMPORARY PERMITTING
GRANT SUPPORT
EDUCATION
ACCESS TO CAPITAL
CAREER PATHWAYS
SKILLS TRAINING
FLEXIBLE ZONING
ADAPTIVE REUSE
VALUE CAPTURE
SPACE
LICENSING EASE
NETWORK
Relief and Recovery Resilience
HumanEconomic development requires nurturing and deploying people in ways that maximize their productive potential.
PhysicalEconomic development requires long-term investments in infrastructure to address the fundamental conditions necessary for economic growth.
OrganizationalPublic and private sector enterprises must coordinate to invest in and facilitate the generation of new ideas and knowledge transfer.
+
+
+
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
Long Term
Resilience
Small firms account for 97.7% of total
business establishments in the state
Small sized firms account for 59.5% of
total payroll employees in the state
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
Long Term
Resilience
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Reliance Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges
Short to Medium Term Long Term
Relief and Recovery Resilience
Support Implementation
Advise on Solutions
Develop a Plan
Assess the LandscapeEMPLOYMENT
INDUSTRY
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
HOUSING AND LAND USE
GUIDING PRINCIPLES
INDICATORS
ONGOING SUPPORT AND RESEARCH
COMMUNICATION AND PRESENTATION
OPERATIONALIZE GOALS
DEFINE GOALS
MEASUREMENT
STAKEHOLDER OUTREACH
UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development
A New Playbook
The UCR Reliance Framework
The UCR Approach
Concluding Thoughts
The Nature of the Challenges The COVID-19 crisis gives economic development an opportunity
to align existing strategic priorities. It presents an opportunity to work toward the transition to a more inclusive and prosperous region in the post-Covid economy.
It’s crucial we seize the moment to envision a strategic agenda that will guide and drive how a region utilizes its unique assets to generate sustained economic growth and to secure its distinct place in the next expansionary period.
