Animal Identification

Economic Impact of Animal DiseaseDr. Paul H. KohrsWSDA Assistant State VeterinarianWASEMA ConferenceSeptember 26, 2012

Topics for TodayGo for the numbers

What contributes to the cost of disease

Some common diseases of concern

Additional thoughts on food supply

2

Agricultures Contribution to Washingtons EconomyAgricultural Production

One of the most diverse and productive growing regions in the world

12% of states economy39,000 farms300 crops$9.5 billion in production value82,000 people employed in crop and livestock production

Agricultures Contribution to Washingtons EconomyForeign Exports

Deep-water ports and proximity to Asian markets

$13 billion in food and agricultural products exported through Washington ports in 20103rd largest in U.S.

Grain & Fruit #1 & #2 in export value

1/3 of meat products processed leave the state

Agricultures Contribution to Washingtons EconomySpecialty Crops

Washington produces a significant portion to the national average

Production as a percent of national total

5Economics 101 USLivestock & Poultry Inventory90 million beef cattle10 million dairy cattle10 million sheep60 million hogs8 billion poultry20% of commodities are exported140 Billion in exports-860,000 jobsIf we get FMD - We Lose Our:Export markets!!Domestic markets & loss of consumer confidenceValuable business infrastructure

6

Fact or Fiction2/3rds of the world has FMD

FMD is feared internationally because of high mortality

FMD is easily diagnosed on clinical signs7

Fact or FictionIf introduced into the US it would be quickly stamped out

Direct costs in an outbreak (eradication and indemnities) would be greater than indirect cost (loss trade and consumer fears)

FMD is zoonotic8

FMDEstimates are that for each hour that it remains undetected it costs $10,000,000

Estimates from USDA indicate that a FMD outbreak would cost $30-60 billion

80 reported suicides from UK 2001 outbreak9

Potential FMD Spread10

Day123456789101112131415161718192021222330Day 5 Disease First DetectedPotential Impact:Even if a national Stop Movement of all susceptible animals is ordered on Day 8, by the time the disease is eradicated the nation would still lose 23.6 million animals! States Infected:5121519232730333537383940After a simulated terrorist attack at 5 locations:10This model was developed by North Carolina.Here is an animal population map that reflects swine population.We also have a state-wide cattle population and vast wildlife herds across the state.In this simulation, you can see what would happen if a foreign animal disease was introduced at five locations.An attack would not be detected until day 5 and then it is already in 23 states. By day 30, it is in 40 states and would require 700,000 personnel to contain.

What we have here is a $30 billion attack.11ONE DAY (9/05) SALE TRACE IN TRACE OUT

2,232 head handled211 sellers (208 WA, 7 OR, 1 ID)25 out of state buyers (1 CA, 9 OR, 14 ID, 1 UT)MarketsIn State SellersIn State BuyersOut Of State SellersOut Of State BuyersSALESITEONE DAY (9/05) SALE TRACE OUT12

ONE DAY (11/05) SALE TRACE OUT13

SALESITE1,993 head handled158 sellers (135 WA, 23 ID)115 buyers (WA, ID, CA, OR, MT, WY, IA)So Is It a Big Deal?Yes

140 Billion in trade

17% of our GDP

Loss of 860,000 agricultural jobs

Psychological impact of losses

Disposal of 24 million animals

14

15

Influenza 101RNA virus vs DNASingle strand of genetic material (RNA)Double helix strands of genetic material (DNA)

Avian Influenza (AI)16 different Hs; named H1 H16 9 different Ns; named N1 N9144 combinations possible (e.g., Asian H5N1)AI subtypes of concern H5 or H7

16

Influenza 101Genetic ChangesDrift: minor mutationsSeasonal fluMay or may not affect the ability to cause diseaseShift: major changesJumping speciesRe-assortment17

Influenza 101Swine the Mixing Vessel

Multiple human and avian gene introductions

Since 1998, unsettled genome results in lots of replication / virus variances

18WA AI Poultry Surveillance

Feb 2004High Path AI detected in B.C. (H7N3)~30 infected premisesLess than mile from U.S. border

Apr 2004Joint USDA/WSDA surveillance teams assembled and dispatched to areaWA AI Poultry Surveillance

Surveillance continued until the outbreak was controlled in Canada Concluded June 2004

~10,500 premises contacted650 of those had poultry480 of the 650 allowed testingAll tests negative

Total cost of operation $765,000

21

UNITED STATES (Whatcom County, WA)CANADA (British Columbia) HPAI INFECTED FLOCK21British Columbia Poultry AI CostsDirect costs 300 millionDepopulationDisposalIndemnityC&D

Additional costsRipple effect estimated at 3X direct costs22

Pork Industry Influenza Costs 2009 - H1N1 Swine flu estimated to cost$1.1 billion dollars in lost revenue (2009)Previous years revenue was already down from recession for a total 2 year loss of $5 billion dollarsNo scientific reason only public perception and media labeling

2012 - H3N2 costs not yet talliedAgain public perception is key to maintaining marketability of pork productsBetter messaging lessened overall impact23

Avian InfluenzaB.C. outbreak in 2004300 million in control costMost officials peg the cost to the economy at 3X that (ripple effect)Some producers out of the business 24

Bovine Tuberculosis (TB)TB is a bacterial disease of cattle that can infect humans, other domestic animals and some wildlife

There are three ways humans can get TB: Breathing air after an infected animal coughs or sneezes very close byDrinking unpasteurized milk from an infected cow or eating raw or undercooked meat from an infected animalHandling infected meat in the dressing and processing of animal carcasses

Eradication program in place since 1917TB has reemerged since 1998 in U.S.25

TB EconomicsIF we would discover an infected TB herd

Huge amounts of time and $$$ spent in testing of infected herd and determining status of trace-ins for the source of the infection

Trace-outs to determine where it might have been spread to

Must prove to USDA that we can accomplish the above or we would lose our free status26

TB Economics27The cost of testing and movement restrictions

Loss of Free Status for TB or Brucellosis cost10 cents per pound ($50 on 500-pound calf)$8 to $10 per head (each time cattle are tested)$5 to $55 million (in added costs to state)$6.4 million (added producer testing costs)Indemnity value may be lower than animal is worth

Community loss of income forCommunity based small farms and marketsCommunity business and their revenueCommunity confidence in uncertain futureWashington TB EventsWA has held TB free-status since 1988

Close calls:Eastern Washington feedlot, May 2008 Two Canadian origin cattle - No intermingling with native cattle

Yakima, 2008Male from Mexico became ill while visiting-diagnosed with TBRaw dairy products from Mexico, eventually recoveredNo family members or animals infected

Sunnyside, Feb 20122009, California dairy herd (975 cows) relocates to Washington2012, Notified entire herd was potentially exposed to TBHerd now is 1200 head - Large-scale tracing and testing 28

Sunnyside TB EventHerd Test Results33 respondersAll tests were negativeAll traces confirmed no cattle comingled with resident cattle

29

CFT Response

30Washington Test Rates31

Washington TB EventsFeb 2012Received notice of a trace from California of an entire herd (975 cows) that potentially was exposed to M. bovis arrived in 2009March 2012, herd population is now 1200Tested in March 2012

Nearly 800 head had been culled in the 09-12 time period all needed to be confirmed as slaughter or in slaughter channels32

TB EconomicsDepopulationSimply not feasible anymoreState and federal resources shrinkingNo more government deep pockets$5-55 million dollars of government money for indemnityUSDA has changed their approach states and producers will now bear more of the costDepopulation is a less likely option33

34

Q FeverQ fever is a rare bacterial infection caused by Coxiella burnetii

Q fever spills over to people, from infected animals/ environment, through inhalation

Q fever is widespread in the environment CDC found Q fever bacteria in environmental samples from post offices, stores, schools, farms, dairies and fairgrounds Some areas had up to 50% positive samples

Q FeverQ fever bacteria can cause a sudden onset of: High fever Headache and flu-like symptoms that usually last for at least a week

Rarely (1-5%) of cases develop serious cardiac problems

Probably under reported due to similarities of other health related and seasonal symptoms36

Q fever in Washington, April 2011Discovered in North Central WashingtonProducer wanted to know the source of goat miscarragesQ fever diagnosed by local Vet, confirmed by WSUProducer assisted with tracing herd sales in WA and MT

Goats were tested from 13 farms in 7 counties: Adams, Chelan, Clark, Franklin, Grant, Pend Oreille & Thurston

850 samples collected by WSDA, USDA and CDC61 human samples from producers & agriculture personnel

2011 Washington State Study Goats were tested from 13 farms in 7 counties: Adams, Chelan, Clark, Franklin, Grant, Pend Oreille & Thurston850 samples collected by WSDA, USDA and CDC61 human samples - Producers and Agriculture personnel

Washington Q fever ResultsHuman11 / 61 (18%) had positive serum samples7 / 11 (64%) people were sick

GoatsWhole blood samples were PCR negativeOnly 8% of 326 goats were ELISA positive Only 10% of 108 fecal swabs (males) were PCR positive31% of 312 vaginal swabs were PCR positiveAll 19 positive milk samples were from one non-milk producing farm

~ $50,000 - nearly bankrupted producer due to lost sales

Additional Topics Animal WelfareHow much will breakfast at McDonalds cost when gestation stalls are eliminated and the eggs are all free range?

UK has gone to non-cage eggs and there are severe egg shortages some locations not available at all

Is food produced in these systems really better for us?

Should others be allowed to make our food choices for us by simple economics?41

Additional Topics Raw MilkGrowing movement promotes advantages of going raw

CDC study states that raw milk saw a significant increase in dairy related food illnesses75% (55/73)of the non pasteurized product outbreaks occurred states where raw milk was legal

Is the increased risk worth the benefits?42

Additional Topics AntibioticsAntibiotic usage the alleged relationship of antibiotic resistance to judicious animal useEliminate growth promoting use of antibioticsEssentially would put antibiotics under veterinary script costs for food

Other sources of resistance?

How much will food costs increase if antibiotic use disappear?43

The End44

Economics 101 USWe get FMD and notify the OIE as required and we lose:Our export markets!!Our domestic markets due to loss of consumer confidenceValuable business infrastructure45

What Would the U.S. Do If We Found a Foreign Animal Disease?Determine the nature of the outbreak

Initiate an appropriate measured response

Eliminate the disease

Ensure recovery in the form of resumption of business and trade46

46Economics 101 US90 million beef cattle

10 million dairy cattle

10 million sheep

60 million hogs

8 billion poultry

Americans pay about 11.5 cents for food for every dollar earned - the lowest in the world47

47Cost of DiseaseMovement control SurveillanceEuthanasia and DisposalCleaning and DisinfectionEmotionalTourismLOST TRADE

48

An industry on wheelsCleaning crewLivehaul (chickens)Grower/EmployeesLivehaul (equipment)Poultry trailerShavingsRendering truckServicemenTractors Loading crewFeed truckFuel truckTruck shopSnow plowTrash truck etc.

Dr. Lloyd Weber, 1990

49Pork Industry Influenza Costs 2012 H3N2 costs not yet tallied

Again public perception is key to maintaining marketability of pork products

Better messaging lessened overall impact50

51

Washington TB EventsYakima area-2008Older male from Mexico became ill while visiting-diagnosed with M.bovisRaw dairy products from MexicoEventually recoveredDid not infect family members or animalsTested small herd on premise 3 times.

52

Washington TB EventsApril 2011Local Slaughter facility received a shipment of slaughter cows from CanadaOn cow was TB compatible confirmed with M. bovisNo contact with breeding animals-returned trace to Canada53

Washington TB EventsApril 2010Washingtons private veterinarians are required to take certification course to improve test ratesVeterinarians are doing an improved job of testing for the assurance of our domestic and international trading partners54

National TB Picture55

TB EconomicsTesting costs ~ $8-$15 dollars per timeLabor costsInjured animalsExtra feed costsLost milk-disrupted schedulesPresent tests require 2 trips through a chuteMarkedly decrease cattle marketability$10-15/CWT decrease in price due to increased risk and testing costs-often the profit on a calf for the year.56Q Fever in North Central Washington, 2011Washington State Department of Agriculture Grant County Health District

Presence of Coxiella burnetii DNA in the Environment of the United States, 2006 to 2008 http://aem.asm.org/content/76/13/4469.full.pdf+html CDC found Q fever bacteria in environmental samples from post offices, stores, schools, farms, dairies and fairgrounds Rocky Mountains- 45%South Central 36%Upper Midwest 25%Deep South 16%West Coast 14%East Coast 6%Some areas had up to 50% positive samples

Q FeverReportedly cost the index farm ~ $50,000 and nearly bankrupted them due to lost sales

Washington State has a raw milk Q-fever testing requirementAnnual TB, Brucellosis and Q-fever test requirementAttempt to identify infected herds and mitigate the risk for illnessEstimate annual cost of $50/animal 59

60